This is a good point. Take THE HAUL through its best-case scenario natural conclusion:
It’s probably not a net positive for this year, because most of the assets you’re getting will be for future drafts, and you’re giving away this year’s 1/1.
Let’s say you use this year’s first & second round pick from THE HAUL to get a GREAT receiver & a good o-lineman.
Ok, there’s your replacements for Darnell Mooney & Braxton Jones.
Let’s say you use next year’s first rounder & second rounder to grab a GREAT corner & a good D-Lineman .
Ok, there’s your replacement for JJ and someone on the d-line to help bring pressure.
A few years down the line, you start having the makings of a good team.
But what do you truly have? When does THE HAUL start looking amazing? When does it start being generational?
By the way, this is the BEST case scenario. In all likelihood, probably not every pick would hit.
THE HAUL, when it’s all said and done, will probably net you some really solid guys, maybe even a great guy or two. But when taken to its natural conclusion, people are way overestimating the ultimate impact of THE HAUL.
The NFL draft hit rate is relatively low and even over 50% of 1st round picks that stay in the league after 5 years end up on a different team.
You'll need to look at this guys parameters for his tally but he's done the work. Here's his ledger.
1st Round: 34/60, hit rate of 56%
2nd Round: 20/60, hit rate of 33.3%3rd Round: 12/60, hit rate of 20%
4th Round: 17/60, hit rate of 28.3%
5th Round: 9/60, hit rate of 15%
Bobby dives deep into the last 5 rookie drafts in his main league to determine which positions and rounds had the highest hit rate.
www.theidpshow.com
We tend to be optimistic about draft picks and mad at our GM for misses when it's more the norm than hits.
The haul then becomes fewer players that are true difference makers in the long run than supposed by trade protagonists.
That said. It's still a very viable route to improvement just like a top 8 QB would be. Both are good ways to better the team with a little luck but I think both sides might be going overboard on expectations of their preferences.
Maye might be a safer pick than CW while still having a very high ceiling for instance. Poles may be human and miss on most of those picks in a trade.
Fields may respond really well to his new OC and vice versa. You don't necessarily need to be able to do everything great if you have enough tools in the bag and a system to exploit them. That said, you eventually need to become at least competent at those things if you plan on advancing against Playoff Ds that will take what you like away.
I'm good either way but would prefer Poles pull the QB trigger if he feels strongly enough about one in this draft. If not. I'm still team Fields and hope a new perspective on his game gives him what he needs to excel. Maybe Poles is waiting for the next Manning, LOL.
