I have not been impressed by Trubs but yesterday he showed me something.....

[WindyCity]

Looking at the top 10 passers [yardage] in the NFL the average yards per attempt is 11.9.

Mitchell Trubisky is at 11.1.

He has a higher yards per completion than 4 guys who are top 10 in yards at this point of the season.

 

[WindyCity]

The Bears are currently 22nd in YAC yards,

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=231&type=Receiving [Remove Ten, NYJ, Clev, Cin, who have played 6 games]

So, while the Bears are a decently productive offense, they are not overly reliant on short throws and runs after the catch.

 

[WindyCity]

More fun with numbers. Looking at the top passers in the NFL in terms of NON YAC Passing Yards

Big Ben-40.6% of his yards are NON-YAC
Rodgers-59%
Mahomes-49.6%
Watson-58.5%
Goff-48.7%

Mitch-51%

So, again the people who seem to think he is throwing an inordinate number of short passes and benefiting from a ton of run after catch, he does not benefit more than any other QB, in fact less than many top passers.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

More fun with numbers. Looking at the top passers in the NFL in terms of NON YAC Passing Yards

Big Ben-40.6% of his yards are NON-YAC
Rodgers-59%
Mahomes-49.6%
Watson-58.5%
Goff-48.7%

Mitch-51%

So, again the people who seem to think he is throwing an inordinate number of short passes and benefiting from a ton of run after catch, he does not benefit more than any other QB, in fact less than many top passers.

I don't really understand the argument for or against "NON YAC". Is there some correlative element to it? As in teams with a higher % of NON YAC score less points, or teams with a lower % of NON YAC win more games? If a QB is effective in a system that is designed to have YAC, then I don't know how that can be construed as a negative.

 

[Midway Fields]

Spartan seems uncomfortable with the idea the Bears could have finally found their QB. His poor heart can't take any more disappointment which is why you see him lashing out. It would take a MVP season at the very least for him to relent.

 

[WindyCity]

I don't really understand the argument for or against "NON YAC". Is there some correlative element to it? As in teams with a higher % of NON YAC score less points, or teams with a lower % of NON YAC win more games? If a QB is effective in a system that is designed to have YAC, then I don't know how that can be construed as a negative.

I am not construing it as a negative.

Simply pointing that Mitch is not reliant on short passing and others doing the work as was alluded to earlier in this thread.

 

[Midway Fields]

I don't really understand the argument for or against "NON YAC". Is there some correlative element to it? As in teams with a higher % of NON YAC score less points, or teams with a lower % of NON YAC win more games? If a QB is effective in a system that is designed to have YAC, then I don't know how that can be construed as a negative.

Spartan is trying minimize Trubisky's accomplishments by wrongly stating he gets more yards from YAC than the vast majority of QB's. That is all.

 

[modo]

It is clear that the people's eye test is falling apart on criticisms of Trubisky.....

If he keeps this up, at the rate he is going, he will be one of the top 5 passers in the league this year in just about every positive category....

I have a statistical boner.

 

[WestCoastBearsFan]

It is clear that the people's eye test is falling apart on criticisms of Trubisky.....

If he keeps this up, at the rate he is going, he will be one of the top 5 passers in the league this year in just about every positive category....

I have a statistical boner.

Do you actually believe he will be a top 5 QB this season though? I’m all in on Mitch probably more than the next guy but from probably bottom 5 last season to top 5 this season is a huge turn around. I think he will be more in the top 10 range.


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[WindyCity]

It is clear that the people's eye test is falling apart on criticisms of Trubisky.....

If he keeps this up, at the rate he is going, he will be one of the top 5 passers in the league this year in just about every positive category....

I have a statistical boner.

As do I.

I also am enjoying the people who used Watson to attack Trubisky now have shifted the goal post and will only use Mahomes to do so and would prefer not to mention Watson.

Jordan Cornette from Kap and Company pulled this on me yesterday when I pointed out that Trubisky was playing way better than Watson his response was to shift to Mahomes after a year of him banging the Watson drum.

 

[WindyCity]

Do you actually believe he will be a top 5 QB this season though? I’m all in on Mitch probably more than the next guy but from probably bottom 5 last season to top 5 this season is a huge turn around. I think he will be more in the top 10 range.


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It depends. Right now all we can do is chart what he is projected to be. As more data comes in we may have to shift the projection.

 

[Bearin' Down]

Mitch's interceptions have largely been stupid throws. No other way to get around it. But, they are stupid throw any young qb has to make to learn and really develop. I love what I'm seeing. Hes presently on Pace for 4000+ yards 35tds 11 ints 550 rush yards and 4 rushing tds with a 105 qbr. If someone asked if you'd take that at the start of the year, you'd have said without a doubt.

Time will tell, but there is reason enough to have real optimism.

 

[modo]

Do you actually believe he will be a top 5 QB this season though? I’m all in on Mitch probably more than the next guy but from probably bottom 5 last season to top 5 this season is a huge turn around. I think he will be more in the top 10 range.


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I don't know if he can keep this pace up. But if he averages 2 TD passes a game he will wind up with over 30 TDs.

His passing yards have increased dramatically. That is one of the categories he will probably be outside the top 5 on though, unless he continues to pass at 275 a game.

His completion percentage is top 5 and he is increasing his yards per attempt while maintaining his completion percentage.....actually I think it has gone up a little.

His passer rating and QBR are going up dramatically as well....


Tampa Bay had no passing defense but the Dolphins were good against the pass so the potential is there....

If Mitch strings a few complete games together, where he is passing equally well in both haves his stats could be astronomical compared to what other Bears have done and really, really good compared against the league....

 

[WestCoastBearsFan]

I don't know if he can keep this pace up. But if he averages 2 TD passes a game he will wind up with over 30 TDs.

His passing yards have increased dramatically. That is one of the categories he will probably be outside the top 5 on though, unless he continues to pass at 275 a game.

His completion percentage is top 5 and he is increasing his yards per attempt while maintaining his completion percentage.....actually I think it has gone up a little.

His passer rating and QBR are going up dramatically as well....


Tampa Bay had no passing defense but the Dolphins were good against the pass so the potential is there....

If Mitch strings a few complete games together, where he is passing equally well in both haves his stats could be astronomical compared to what other Bears have done and really, really good compared against the league....

That would put him on pretty much the same trajectory as Carson, or maybe a tad behind, who was an MVP front runner before his injury. I would be shocked if he could still be comparable to Carson after both their second years. Shocked in a good way though.


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[modo]

As do I.

I also am enjoying the people who used Watson to attack Trubisky now have shifted the goal post and will only use Mahomes to do so and would prefer not to mention Watson.

Jordan Cornette from Kap and Company pulled this on me yesterday when I pointed out that Trubisky was playing way better than Watson his response was to shift to Mahomes after a year of him banging the Watson drum.

People who primarily use the eye test and make early judgments vs metrics and trends generally move the goal posts.

It is the same idiot logic that had people gaga over early stats on first year QBs and seeing the new QBs for a few throws and either judging them elite or bust immediately....somehow as a group of people we demand instant analysis and judgement and have little patience or an ability to see a process thru to the end.

 

[modo]

That would put him on pretty much the same trajectory as Carson, or maybe a tad behind, who was an MVP front runner before his injury. I would be shocked if he could still be comparable to Carson after both their second years. Shocked in a good way though.


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If Trubisky continues his pace he will certainly exceed my expectations for the year.

 

[WestCoastBearsFan]

If Trubisky continues his pace he will certainly exceed my expectations for the year.

It’s important to remember he most likely will not continue this pace though. And that’s okay. Not very many NFL qb’s can consistently have 300+ yards and 3+ TDs per game.


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[modo]

It’s important to remember he most likely will not continue this pace though. And that’s okay. Not very many NFL qb’s can consistently have 300+ yards and 3+ TDs per game.


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He doesn't even need to throw that many TDs or yards a game to excel....2 TDS a game puts him over 30 for the year

 

[nc0gnet0]

It is hard to decide if it worth it......getting a first down vs losing your starting QB for the year.....

By that logic, why have him run at all? What I am saying is it looks like he could start the slide a little later without significant risk.

 

[WestCoastBearsFan]

He doesn't even need to throw that many TDs or yards a game to excel....2 TDS a game puts him over 30 for the year

I was talking about matching Carson’s productivity. To maintain pace with him he would need to have some more 300 yard games. And Carson is top 5 IMO so matching him would make him top 5 in my eyes.


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