If the Bears are targeting a QB -

[rawdawg]

I'm not sure what you mean by this. Garrett, Clowney and Williams were all consensus blue chip first overall prospects. Mack and Bosa were never considered as highly as Garrett or Clowney.




Most mocks had him several spots later.

They were consensus #1 picks because of the drafts they were in. If there was an elite QB prospect, none would have been #1 in those years. Mack and Bosa weren't considered as #1 picks, but Mack is already a better player and Bosa is likely to be better than Clowney and maybe even Garrett. Where mocks have people isn't a valid argument. Mocks have Deshaun Watson anywhere from 2 to mid 2nd round. They don't really matter.

 

[rawdawg]

Highly regarded, sure, but again, mostly mocked between 5 and 8 before the draft. Certainly never #1, far less a no-brainer consensus #1.

I'm not taking away from Bosa, I'm just saying if Garrett was out last year, the QBs would have been being discussed in terms of which teams will take them after the Rams got Garrett, similar to what's going on now.

Rams traded up (as did the Eagles) and nobody was moving up for a non-QB. Even if Garrett came out, it was very possible he would have gone #3.

 

[JoJoBoxer]

Yes, but each of the posters still have a preference.

YEEEEES? and so?

Do you think that a war room is just Pace by himself?

Or do you think that he listens to his scouts preferences and then makes up his big board?

Is it possible that his big board might have two or three QBs rated in such a way that drafting one versus another might not matter to him?

Should Pace trade a future pick to have 100% certainty that he gets one of two or three QBs that are rated equally in a draft where he picks #3 and has Garrett as the sure thing at #1?


Just so you know, if Pace has a QB rated head and shoulders above another and thinks that he is a sure franchise QB, let him do whatever it takes to get him. If he is wrong, at least he tried. I just don't think that the Bears organization consisting of several scouts and other personnel will agree that there is a QB who is head and shoulders better than the other QBs in this draft.

Like I posted earlier with positive and negative points for the possible top three QBs, there are some serious flaws in each QB which lowers the chance of them being franchise QBs considerably.

You don't trade up for that.

 

[JoJoBoxer]

I don't think we're going to convince each other on this one. Different scouts will prefer one or the other, as will different GMs, but Pace has the final decision, and I think he probably has a preference, as we all do for the most part.

To make it even messier, Trubisky isn't actually my 2nd choice. That would be Kizer, who I think will be the better pro.

There really isn't a need. I have my preference who isn't even a QB. However; for once I am fine with about 10 prospects being drafted at #3 including 2 QBs. I just don't see the need to lose a draft pick to move up to get a QB.

The worst thing that can happen is for the Bears to trade up into the end of the 1st round for a QB. I can see the Bears flopping and some team like the Patriots getting the top QB in the 2018 draft.

 

[TL1961]

If the Bears come out of this draft with "only" their franchise QB...that would be the Bears most successful draft since they drafted Walter Payton.

Again, generally speaking, if you grab a true franchise QB then a trade up could well be worth it.
Picking a qb THIS year, because you feel desperate, is a mistake.

Trading up only compounds that mistake.

 

[JoJoBoxer]

It's not about the scouts. They all give their input. Pace makes the decision. All that matters is who he wants. I know they always talk about "consensus between our guys" but that's all "yay team" bullshit. The GM decides.

He makes the ultimate decision, but what happens if almost all the scouts prefer the other player.

Example: GM Bearmick has preferred Watson since forever.

He is in the war room with his 21 real scouts (not message board scouts) and 19 scouts are pro Mickey and only 2 pro Watson, do you go all Draft Day and say Watson all day long?

Or do you ponder why so many of your scouts don't prefer Watson and perhaps change your mind?

 

[JoJoBoxer]

Highly regarded, sure, but again, mostly mocked between 5 and 8 before the draft. Certainly never #1, far less a no-brainer consensus #1.

I'm not taking away from Bosa, I'm just saying if Garrett was out last year, the QBs would have been being discussed in terms of which teams will take them after the Rams got Garrett, similar to what's going on now.

Do you mean after the Browns draft Garrett or would you expect the Browns to trade the #1 pick still?

 

[remydat]

I think the flaw in this logic is the issue of risk. There maybe 3-4 QBs with franchise potential but they all seem to have higher bust factors as well. So that has to be taken into consideration. You trade up for guys that you think will be franchise QBs and whose risk of busting is low. I wouldn't trade up for a guy I think may be a franchise QB but whose risk of busting is also high.

Put another way, it's like the stock market. You don't pay more for the riskier asset. Instead you pay less and demand a higher return to compensate you for the higher bust factor. While I love Watson and would be fine with Kizer or Trubisky, their flaws mean they have a higher bust factor IMO. So I wouldn't trade up for any of them unless you are telling me the cost is like a 5th round pick or something.

 

[bearmick]

Picking a qb THIS year, because you feel desperate, is a mistake.

Just because you don't think any of these QBs will be successful doesn't mean GMs don't. You can't assume if they're picked it's through desperation. That's extremely arrogant. Pace (or any other GMs) may well like them a lot, or at least one of them.

 

[bearmick]

He makes the ultimate decision, but what happens if almost all the scouts prefer the other player.

Example: GM Bearmick has preferred Watson since forever.

He is in the war room with his 21 real scouts (not message board scouts) and 19 scouts are pro Mickey and only 2 pro Watson, do you go all Draft Day and say Watson all day long?

Or do you ponder why so many of your scouts don't prefer Watson and perhaps change your mind?

If it was that kind of extreme, yeah I'd certainly have to at least consider it.

Again though, I think the premise of this thread was based on the hypothetical that 1) SF want to trade down, and 2) Pace has a specific QB he wants. Nobody said that IS the case. If he isn't set on a specific player, the premise of the thread is null and void.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

I think the flaw in this logic is the issue of risk. There maybe 3-4 QBs with franchise potential but they all seem to have higher bust factors as well. So that has to be taken into consideration. You trade up for guys that you think will be franchise QBs and whose risk of busting is low. I wouldn't trade up for a guy I think may be a franchise QB but whose risk of busting is also high.

Put another way, it's like the stock market. You don't pay more for the riskier asset. Instead you pay less and demand a higher return to compensate you for the higher bust factor. While I love Watson and would be fine with Kizer or Trubisky, their flaws mean they have a higher bust factor IMO. So I wouldn't trade up for any of them unless you are telling me the cost is like a 5th round pick or something.

 

[Bearly]

and is Goff now officially a bust? Was Rodgers a bust because he couldn't get on the field until his 4th year?

 

[Giant Panda]

and is Goff now officially a bust? Was Rodgers a bust because he couldn't get on the field until his 4th year?

I recall some people licking their chops because Rodgers was awful his first 2 preseasons.

 

[The Hawk]

That just shows Garrett was a better athlete. Bosa's a completely different type of pass rusher, but he was always very highly regarded for what he does on the field.

If healthy, I think Boza will be the leading pass rusher in the NFL this coming season. The guy is very strong and uses his leverage well.

 

[PeterMbangala]

But it is my point.

If two respected members of this board can have a favorite but not be against the other QB being chosen, why can't multiple scouts in the Bears war room have the same split?

And that is called "there is no QB that is head and shoulders better than the other".

In this situation, you don't trade up to #2 to get one of two basically equal QBs. You draft who was left over, if one was chosen. If not, you have a chance of trading down and still getting one.

Pace will like one over the other and it is his career on the line.

 

[JoJoBoxer]

Pace will like one over the other and it is his career on the line.

There is like and I am going to move up because there is one QB that is above and beyond better than the rest like.

Like and you wait until #3 and hope the better QB in your opinion is there. You have a chance of keeping your job even if he fails.

Moving up for a QB in a perceived weak class has a chance of getting you fired before the team gets to week 1 because of the perceived reach when no QB should have been taken until later.

 

[iffybiz]

There have been many cases where there are two guys who are rated tightly before the draft. I'm guessing the Colts were happy they had the first crack at QB when they took Manning.
I have no doubt that they have their "guy" in mind. If they think that the only way of getting him is trading up, they will.


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[JoJoBoxer]

There have been many cases where there are two guys who are rated tightly before the draft. I'm guessing the Colts were happy they had the first crack at QB when they took Manning.
I have no doubt that they have their "guy" in mind. If they think that the only way of getting him is trading up, they will.


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Funny thing is that the Colts were actually considering taking Leaf, so there is that.

 

[JoJoBoxer]

I have no doubt that they have their "guy" in mind. If they think that the only way of getting him is trading up, they will.


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And I have no doubt that they do not have their guy with the many flaws with the QBs this year.

Just opinion, nothing we say has any fact to it.

 

[Giant Panda]

Funny thing is that the Colts were actually considering taking Leaf, so there is that.

They would have until whoever asked them a question about what they would do after being drafted. Manning gave a humble answer friends, family, helping the team etc... and Leaf said he was going to Vegas after getting drafted.