If we loose gordon this year, how about prince?

[R K]

LOL. You were one of the people that had no problem when I was using that site in the past....sorry but you stepped into that one and I did try to give a little warning.





Interestingly enough that site shows that 92 points is most likely the break point for the playoffs in the West based on trending to this point. It also projects the Hawks to finish with 94 points and the 6th or 7th seed.



But as I will mention, for the third time, is that yes anything can happen to change, which is what the "what if" table is there to show and how those changes will affect the current trending. It really is worth checking at the end of the season to see how the trending does not change all that much (extremes are a rarity), especially once game 60 has been played. But again...this is just for perspective not gospel. An interesting piece of information, and just that.

No no I called bullshit then too. Just as I do now. Just as I did when Rosh posted it for the first time a couple of weeks ago.



What if I didn't take a shit this morning. Man I'd be backed up.



I agree on the 92pts but thats just a guess as well. I think 95 is a tad high ONLY because fo the Parity.

 

[puckjim]

LOL. You were one of the people that had no problem when I was using that site in the past....sorry but you stepped into that one and I did try to give a little warning.





Interestingly enough that site shows that 92 points is most likely the break point for the playoffs in the West based on trending to this point. It also projects the Hawks to finish with 94 points and the 6th or 7th seed.



But as I will mention, for the third time, is that yes anything can happen to change, which is what the "what if" table is there to show and how those changes will affect the current trending. It really is worth checking at the end of the season to see how the trending does not change all that much (extremes are a rarity), especially once game 60 has been played. But again...this is just for perspective not gospel. An interesting piece of information, and just that.

Again, I never said it was absolute or gospel. That's why I posted the link. Nothing wrong with the debate, though. At least I never thought so.

 

[PatrickShart]

3pt game is the scariest part. Right now they are 4pts out of 4th in the conference with 30 games to go and LOTS of divisional games. 3 against the wings with 8pts separating them.



I'm not worried in the slightest. The Parity in the Conference is just to close with ALL the teams.

No, its not for all teams. Only the Hawks. All the other teams are going to win every single game they have. Even the ones they play head to head. The Hawks are the only team that will lose games/points.

 

[BlackHawkPaul]

Valid point. He too missed a wide open net last night. Althought he puck was bouncing all over.





PMX I thought Crawford was brutal last night. I said early in the day I would have started Turco. DIdn't happen.

Agree.

 

[BiscuitintheBasket]

No no I called bullshit then too. Just as I do now. Just as I did when Rosh posted it for the first time a couple of weeks ago.



What if I didn't take a shit this morning. Man I'd be backed up.



I agree on the 92pts but thats just a guess as well. I think 95 is a tad high ONLY because fo the Parity.

Uh huh.... And a back up would not be a good thing on many levels!!!!





In any case, we have all gone waaaaay off topic for a GDT. Auger blows, the 'Hawks just did not convert on some prime chances, and the end result was not favorable.



Personally I do not think the 'Hawks sucked in general last night. Moments, sure, as in any game, but for the most part this was still a very winnable game for them.



Too bad more of those chances in the first did not convert as the game would have been very much different.



And wow, Minny did show that they can skate in the 2nd. Who knew.

 

[puckjim]

No, its not for all teams. Only the Hawks. All the other teams are going to win every single game they have. Even the ones they play head to head. The Hawks are the only team that will lose games/points.

You are correct. The three point game makes projections difficult. You almost have to assume that all games are going to be two point games when trying to make an numeric guess.



The "what will it take to make the playoffs" discussion is open for debate, which makes is perfect for a message board.

 

[winos5]

Why does it take Crawford soooooooo loooooooonnnnnggg to get up from a scramble. It happened in the Philly game on the one goal as well, that Giroux scored. It was as if he didnt even try to get up.

Probably had something to do with the opposing teams player sliding into him and dragging him partially out of the crease.

 

[PatrickShart]

K...well, start a new thread with all scientific guesses an theories on how a team higher in standings is going to drop out/lose games to others, based on calculations.



This is about the Minnesota game last nite.



Also, let me know the calculations of what numbers will be picked in the lottery game coming up. That will be much more usefull than telling me the percentage of a chance the Hawks will, with 30 games left, for 15 teams, that doesnt calculate what trades, injuries, etc that teams will have. And.....there is a 100% chance that didnt factor in any of that.

 

[R K]

Uh huh.... And a back up would not be a good thing on many levels!!!!





In any case, we have all gone waaaaay off topic for a GDT. Auger blows, the 'Hawks just did not convert on some prime chances, and the end result was not favorable.



Personally I do not think the 'Hawks sucked in general last night. Moments, sure, as in any game, but for the most part this was still a very winnable game for them.



Too bad more of those chances in the first did not convert as the game would have been very much different.



And wow, Minny did show that they can skate in the 2nd. Who knew.

They have won four out of their last five. Previous to San Jose they had won by a margin of 14-4 I think they said. They were far more open than previous years of the trap last night. Crawford was not on and it made for a bad night of catching up. Goal #1 sniper shot but goal #2 and #4 pathetic.



Thats two iffy games in a row from Cory.

 

[PatrickShart]

Probably had something to do with the opposing teams player sliding into him and dragging him partially out of the crease.

He just lay there for sometime after though, didnt look like he even gave an effort to get up. Same with last nite. He just reached for the puck after he was down for quite some time.

 

[puckjim]

K...well, start a new thread with all scientific guesses an theories on how a team higher in standings is going to drop out/lose games to others, based on calculations.



This is about the Minnesota game last nite.



Also, let me know the calculations of what numbers will be picked in the lottery game coming up. That will be much more usefull than telling me the percentage of a chance the Hawks will, with 30 games left, for 15 teams, that doesnt calculate what trades, injuries, etc that teams will have. And.....there is a 100% chance that didnt factor in any of that.

Yeah, I thought about all that. I would guess the owner of that site likely has some sort of disclaimer that talks about trades, injuries, etc.



I considered starting a playoff chances thread, but I will likely wait until after this upcoming road trip.



Back on topic: Agree with everyone about Crawford. The break should help this team.

 

[PatrickShart]

and maybe the percentages would mean more, if there still wasnt 39% of the season left?

 

[Chief Walking Stick]

FACT: 65% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

 

[puckjim]

and maybe the percentages would mean more, if there still wasnt 39% of the season left?

This is true. The fluctuations are huge at this point, but I'm not sure if that has to do with the number of game left, or the fact that the Hawks lost an inter-conference game.



You're right, though, that it's difficult to do a completely accurate assessment with 32 games left. I guess that's why I like the numbers site. Numbers aren't biased.



I didn't look at that site before this season....Found it quite compelling.



But, as you stated, a topic for another thread, je suppose.

 

[R K]

and maybe the percentages would mean more, if there still wasnt 39% of the season left?

Ding. Or if the Hawks were out of the playoff picture.



The only statistic I'd buy right now is the Oilers will not make the playoffs. 99% chance. They have fallen to far behind. All other 14 teams have a chance. No question.



This is a topic for another thread. The ONLY reason I said something is PJ always has a glass half empty for the most part and he posted it as if it were fact. He did not suggest "this site says this", or "Statistics on this page show this". He flat out stated they now have a 65% chance of making the playoffs. Sorry to me that's stating it as if it were factual, which it was not. Not to mention I'd have NEVER seen it has someone not copied the post.

 

[R K]

FACT: 65% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

Link? I don't see it in your signature. Get right on that dick!

 

[PatrickShart]

I think so many people here tried writing this team off way to early. They tried saying that the new players wouldnt be good enough to fill roles. Then there was the stretch where the Hawks didn't care enough, didnt have enough heart. Or then, that they have way too many games in hand, and all these other teams were going to pass them when they caught them in games played. They "automatically" win every game in hand.

When now...with still about 40% of the games left...teams pretty much caught up in games played, and the Hawks in 8th place - 4pts out of 4th and 5pts out of 14th - people will start coming up with calculations, create cockamimi formulas.....to hang on to the idea that they won't make the playoffs - before they're even eliminated. There's a whole lotta hockey left and nothing has been decided now - as it hasnt in the first 60% of the season.

 

[LordKOTL]

Here's what I figure...



Even with the 3 point game, we can extrapolate out how well a team will do by taking their point-per-game ratio, and extrapolating that out over 82 games. It may not take into account tie-breakers, but assuming that the teams stay on the current pace:



(Games played/Points/PPG/Extrapolated points after 82 games)

Vancouver:

49/69/1.408/115.469



Detroit:

48/64/1.333/109.333



Dallas:

49/63/1.286/105.429



Nashville:

49/60/1.224/100.408



Anaheim:

52/60/1.154/94.615



Phoenix:

50/51/1.140/93.480



Colorado:

49/56/1.143/93.714



Chicago:

50/56/1.120/91.840



Minnesota:

49/55/1.122/92.040



San Jose:

49/55/1.122/92.040



Los Angeles:

49/53/1.082/88.694



Calgary:

50/52/1.040/85.280



St. Louis:

48/51/1.063/87.125



Columbus:

49/51/1.041/85.384



Edmonton:

48/38/0.792/64.917

----------------------------------

Time to panic? Not likely, but assuming all the teams keep to the same trends that they have this year, right here and now we'd finish 10th. Thus, the team has to do better than it has for the next 32 games. The good news, though, is that we dn't have to be that much better--in that we're likoy only out by 2 points to have a spot guarenteed.

 

[Chief Walking Stick]

Link? I don't see it in your signature. Get right on that dick!

http://nyceducator.com/2006/03/63-of-all-statistics-are-made-up-on.html



HA!



Sorry I was 2% off!

 

[Larmer83]

FACT: 65% of this thread is a POS.

A fact no doubt.