IGT: Cubs @ Braves (Make up game)

[bamainatlanta]

Sad when that man did more for this town than any Bear did. Payton comes close.


American Football is really not shocking as the most popular sport in America. (not the world that is soccer 'Gasp') More violence involved and IMO that adds to the attraction of it.

Remember Nero was pretty popular in his time too. Well with the viewers at least.

Yeah but Nero had massive orgies. No better way to bring the community together with debaucherous **** fests

 

[bamainatlanta]

Big W

Yep. Not easy to win in Atlanta especially with the way Folly has been pitching. Also the tiebreaker will come down to conference play instead of head to head in case we have the same record

 

[CSF77]

Yeah but Nero had massive orgies. No better way to bring the community together with debaucherous **** fests

Think that was Caligula

Nero’s party’s were closer to turning Christians into lights.

 

[TL1961]

I find it odd that so many fans are fans of one sport.

It seems everyone I know who is a sports fan follows several sports. Most may not follow all pro sports, but few I have ever known care only about one.

But here it seems so many who follow the Cubs criticize the NFL, and vice versa.

I have always been a big fan of the Cubs, Bears and Hawks, and I root for the Bulls, though I can't watch a full game. I don't get how it has to be one over the other.

 

[beckdawg]

I find it odd that so many fans are fans of one sport.

It seems everyone I know who is a sports fan follows several sports. Most may not follow all pro sports, but few I have ever known care only about one.

But here it seems so many who follow the Cubs criticize the NFL, and vice versa.

I have always been a big fan of the Cubs, Bears and Hawks, and I root for the Bulls, though I can't watch a full game. I don't get how it has to be one over the other.

Personally I tend to get super into one sport for a period of time then burn out. From like 2003-2010 it was football for me. Now I don't think i've sat down and watched a football game in like 2 years. Baseball is my thing atm.

 

[beckdawg]

Magic number vs stl down to 26 and 25 vs mil

 

[bamainatlanta]

Magic number vs stl down to 26 and 25 vs mil

It'll get down to the wire with the Cards. Seems they have removed their cancers, fired their lame duck head coach and added some nice pieces with some real leadership from the new coach. And as always, they make their pitchers overachieve as always. Cardinals are a real threat now even with a 4 game lead. Maddon & Pace have done a masterful job of getting by with the injuries and streaky play.

 

[beckdawg]

It'll get down to the wire with the Cards. Seems they have removed their cancers, fired their lame duck head coach and added some nice pieces with some real leadership from the new coach. And as always, they make their pitchers overachieve as always. Cardinals are a real threat now even with a 4 game lead. Maddon & Pace have done a masterful job of getting by with the injuries and streaky play.

I don't get this line of thinking. I mean I literally laid the scenario out in the tigers thread and since then the cubs are what 8-2? I'll try to do this quickly again so maybe people will stop with this talking point. Fangraphs has the cubs odds of winning the division at 91.3% with the remaining ~8% split equally between MIL and STL. There's 31 games left for the cubs and for this I'm only going to talk about st louis to simplify. St. Louis has 28 games left. If the cubs play .500 ball the rest of the way they will win 16 more games giving them 95 wins. In order for the cards to win the division they will have to go 21-7(.750). If the cubs play as well as they have all season(.594 win%) they will win another 18 games meaning the cards have to go 23-5(.821). In other words, the conservative estimate here is that st louis will have to win between 75% and 82.1% of their remaining games to even have a shot. On the season they've won 56% of their games.

 

[bamainatlanta]

I don't get this line of thinking. I mean I literally laid the scenario out in the tigers thread and since then the cubs are what 8-2? I'll try to do this quickly again so maybe people will stop with this talking point. Fangraphs has the cubs odds of winning the division at 91.3% with the remaining ~8% split equally between MIL and STL. There's 31 games left for the cubs and for this I'm only going to talk about st louis to simplify. St. Louis has 28 games left. If the cubs play .500 ball the rest of the way they will win 16 more games giving them 95 wins. In order for the cards to win the division they will have to go 21-7(.750). If the cubs play as well as they have all season(.594 win%) they will win another 18 games meaning the cards have to go 23-5(.821). In other words, the conservative estimate here is that st louis will have to win between 75% and 82.1% of their remaining games to even have a shot. On the season they've won 56% of their games.

Who gives a **** what fangraphs has to say about odds? Tell that to the 2011 Cards or Rays. Or the 2007 Rockies. Cards are 20-5 in August and just took 5 out of 6 on the road vs the Rockies & Dodgers. Write them off at your own peril, but if they keep this up, the last series of the year will matter--especially with a winning mark against the Cubs (9-7, might be wrong). Shildt is 27-12 and seems like he has got his feet under him (7-7 in his first 14 games). Not a team I'd like to see the Cubs face.

 

[beckdawg]

Who gives a **** what fangraphs has to say about odds? Tell that to the 2011 Cards or Rays. Or the 2007 Rockies. Cards are 20-5 in August and just took 5 out of 6 on the road vs the Rockies & Dodgers. Write them off at your own peril, but if they keep this up, the last series of the year will matter--especially with a winning mark against the Cubs (9-7, might be wrong). Shildt is 27-12 and seems like he has got his feet under him (7-7 in his first 14 games). Not a team I'd like to see the Cubs face.

So because they are 20-5 in August you are assuming they will continue to play at an 80% win rate for the remaining 28 games? You realize how ridiculous it would be for them to win 75-80% of their games over a 53 game sample? As an example here, the Red Sox are on a .689 win pace which is nearly the MLB record for wins that the 2001 M's put up(.716 or 116 wins) and the cardinals would still need to win 5-10% higher than that for the rest of the season. The best 2 months that 2001 M's team had were April and May and they went 20-5 in April and 20-7 in May meaning over a similar period of time the best team in MLB history record wise had it's best 2 month stretch going 40-12(.769). St. Louis would basically need to match that in order to win the division if the cubs play .500 ball.

Oh and there's the added fact that the cubs may have Bryant for let's say 25 of those remaining 31 games so assuming they only go .500 is pretty conservative.

 

[beckdawg]

I'd also love for someone to explain to me why people suddenly believe St. Louis is a juggernaut capable of continuing to win at not just a very good clip of say 60%+ but a a near historic clip. I mean people realize they have 7 guys basically hitting with a .500 slugging percent in August right? I'm sure the reply to this will be "exactly they are good!" But let's throw some cold water on that. There's 30 hitters in the entire league with qualified at bats who have a .500 or better slugging percent. Are people seriously believing that the cardinals have 7 players capable of this? 5 of those 7 are also hitting over .300 in august. 5 of those 7 have an OBP over .365. In other words, during august 5/8ths of their positional players are roughly equivalent to Manny Machado who's hitting .304/.378/.555. If you want to argue that Carp and Martinez are legit hitters by all means but Wong, Bader, Gyorko and O'Neill are all playing well over their heads. That's before we even talk about the fact their team ERA in august is 2.66 where as their FIP is 3.45.

If there were ever a team screaming for a regression it's this one. And maybe for some crazy reason they don't regress *that* much. Let's say they only win 2 out of every 3 going forward. That means they would go 19-9 to finish the season with 94 wins. If the cubs play .500 ball they win 95. A .667 win% is a 108 win team. There's no fucking way the cardinals are *that* talented. I don't care how shitty your manager is a team capable of winning 108 games doesn't go 2 games over .500 in the first half. I mean realistic best case scenario for the cards is they are roughly what the 2017 cubs were. I'd argue the 2017 cubs were more talented but they finished the first half 43-45 and then went on to win 92 games by going 49-25 which is a .662 win%. Cards winning 94 games would make their 2nd half 46-22 or .676.

 

[chibears55]

So because they are 20-5 in August you are assuming they will continue to play at an 80% win rate for the remaining 28 games? You realize how ridiculous it would be for them to win 75-80% of their games over a 53 game sample? As an example here, the Red Sox are on a .689 win pace which is nearly the MLB record for wins that the 2001 M's put up(.716 or 116 wins) and the cardinals would still need to win 5-10% higher than that for the rest of the season. The best 2 months that 2001 M's team had were April and May and they went 20-5 in April and 20-7 in May meaning over a similar period of time the best team in MLB history record wise had it's best 2 month stretch going 40-12(.769). St. Louis would basically need to match that in order to win the division if the cubs play .500 ball.

Oh and there's the added fact that the cubs may have Bryant for let's say 25 of those remaining 31 games so assuming they only go .500 is pretty conservative.

Everyone keeps saying they wont keep playing at 80% rate for 2 weeks now and yet they keep winning..lol...
No i dont expect it to continue that high but their next 12 games is pretty easy on paper..

Cubs next 13 games a bit tougher then the Cardinals, they just need to stay afloat and hope to avoid a losing streak combined with a Cardinal winning streak here...
Plus take care of Brew and try to at least split the 6 vs. them..

So, these next 2 weeks is big
survive it and it gets a bit easier til the final home stress and hopefully by then itll just be a matter of winning a couple games..

Cubs..
Phils 3
Nats 4
Brews 6

Cards..
Reds 3
Tigers 3
Nats 3
Pitts 3

Brews..
Nats 3
Giants 3
Cubs 6


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[beckdawg]

Everyone keeps saying they wont keep playing at 80% rate for 2 weeks now and yet they keep winning..lol...
No i dont expect it to continue that high but their next 12 games is pretty easy on paper..

I mean look if they had the talent the dodgers do and were playing like this... ok fine I'd humor the argument that maybe they are the statistical anomaly. But I don't think I'm being a cubs homer when I say that the cards aren't this talented a team. Realistically no team is *that* talented but even in this short stretch where weird things can happen it's not like they are sitting on multiple 6+ win players who all got hot at the same time a la the cubs start to 2016 or w/e. If you squint and buy into what he does well maybe Carp is a 6 win guy. He's currently matched his best fwar at 5.3 with time to still play. He'll likely get close to 6. But he's legitimately the only hitter even close to that good. Bader is probably their second best player and he's like a 3-4 win guy then you got a bunch of sub 3 guys.

Flaherty I legit buy. He looks like a future 4+ win pitcher if he stays healthy. I don't buy Mikolas at all unless you're telling me he's a #3 starter at best. I mean he's basically a ground ball version of Josh Tomlin. If they had Carlos Martinez starting then again maybe you buy him but he's hurt. But SD literally let Tyson Ross go for nothing rather than trading him pre-deadline and it's not like he had a bunch of buyers this winter. Poncedeleon and Gomber are literally AAA depth. Neither was a top prospect. Poncedeleon was #29 for their system midseason to show where scouts think he fits in. Gant isn't a big prospect either.

So, either the team is getting incredibly fortunate to play as well as they have which the numbers back up and regression catches up to them or it's going to be a historically flukey team. Is that possible? I guess but I just don't understand why people are entertaining the idea as though it were a likely out come. And as I've said before, it's not just that they have to be historically flukey. They have to be historically flukey and the cubs have to play bad. That's the part that makes it incredibly unlikely because while fluke stuff does happen you'd basically be talking about best case for the cards and worst case for the cubs both needing to happen simultaneously. I know not everyone digs fangraphs and all but they put the cubs realistic win range between 94-97 wins and the cards at 87-91. In other words, they are saying even if the worst happens for the cubs realistically and the best happens for St louis there's still a 3 win gap between their realistic outcomes. That illustrates just how crazy it would have to be.

 

[TL1961]

Everyone keeps saying they wont keep playing at 80% rate for 2 weeks now and yet they keep winning..lol...
No i dont expect it to continue that high but their next 12 games is pretty easy on paper..

Cubs next 13 games a bit tougher then the Cardinals, they just need to stay afloat and hope to avoid a losing streak combined with a Cardinal winning streak here...
Plus take care of Brew and try to at least split the 6 vs. them..

So, these next 2 weeks is big
survive it and it gets a bit easier til the final home stress and hopefully by then itll just be a matter of winning a couple games..

Cubs..
Phils 3
Nats 4
Brews 6

Cards..
Reds 3
Tigers 3
Nats 3
Pitts 3

Brews..
Nats 3
Giants 3
Cubs 6


Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

The cubs “just need to stay afloat” and by the final stretch “ hopefully win a couple games”?

How bad are we??

 

[TL1961]

Here’s another way to put it:

After going 20-5, and shaving 3 games off a 7.5 game deficit, the Cards need to make up another 4.5 over the final 28.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Everyone keeps saying they wont keep playing at 80% rate for 2 weeks now and yet they keep winning..lol...
No i dont expect it to continue that high but their next 12 games is pretty easy on paper..

Cubs next 13 games a bit tougher then the Cardinals, they just need to stay afloat and hope to avoid a losing streak combined with a Cardinal winning streak here...
Plus take care of Brew and try to at least split the 6 vs. them..

So, these next 2 weeks is big
survive it and it gets a bit easier til the final home stress and hopefully by then itll just be a matter of winning a couple games..

Cubs..
Phils 3
Nats 4
Brews 6

Cards..
Reds 3
Tigers 3
Nats 3
Pitts 3

Brews..
Nats 3
Giants 3
Cubs 6


Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

Survive?? What team are you watching? The Cubs are by far and away the most talented team in the NL and in the past few days have won games started by 3 of the top 10 starting pitchers in baseball. They also have a nearly insurmountable lead of 5 games in the loss column. I'm so sick of this worry wart shit I could scream. In our 4 year competitive run so far this is the second best team we've had heading to October and people are still hanging on the ledge? What a fucking joyless way to watch the sport. Rant over.

 

[TL1961]

“What a fucking joyless way to watch the sport”.

No better summary than that.

Some won’t allow themselves to enjoy the best seasons they’ll ever witness.

 

[chibears55]

Yea survive, you know dont go 4 and 9 while the Cardinals go 8 and 4 and that 4 game lead is gone..

This is their final tough stress of games against good teams that are fighting for a playoff spot while the Cardinals are playing easier teams, they need to get through this stress .

I mentioned the same damn thing on another board and they all agreed, for whatever reason on here some of you either really think this team invincible, or you just afraid to step out of the safe zone because your afraid of the trolls on here or are the trolls

It ok to hope they go up but know there a chance they get held down for a stress, it doesn't make you a bad fan

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[anotheridiot]

Who gives a **** what fangraphs has to say about odds? Tell that to the 2011 Cards or Rays. Or the 2007 Rockies. Cards are 20-5 in August and just took 5 out of 6 on the road vs the Rockies & Dodgers. Write them off at your own peril, but if they keep this up, the last series of the year will matter--especially with a winning mark against the Cubs (9-7, might be wrong). Shildt is 27-12 and seems like he has got his feet under him (7-7 in his first 14 games). Not a team I'd like to see the Cubs face.

I agree, **** fangraphs. Its pretty simple, Cubs lose 5 straight, cards win 5 straight guess what?

 

[fatbeard]

Yea survive, you know dont go 4 and 9 while the Cardinals go 8 and 4 and that 4 game lead is gone..

This is their final tough stress of games against good teams that are fighting for a playoff spot while the Cardinals are playing easier teams, they need to get through this stress .

I mentioned the same damn thing on another board and they all agreed, for whatever reason on here some of you either really think this team invincible, or you just afraid to step out of the safe zone because your afraid of the trolls on here or are the trolls

It ok to hope they go up but know there a chance they get held down for a stress, it doesn't make you a bad fan

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You were the guy crying "The sky falling!" when the Cubs were playing .500 coming out of the break. You cried about the offense even though everyone told you it would be fine. You cried about the starting pitching even though everyone told you it would be fine. In 2016 you cried when they had their three-week super slump. You were crying about the offense in the Dodgers series. You cried when they were down 3-1 to Cleveland in the World Series. You cried last year when they were under .500 at the break. Now you're crying about the Cards being unsustainably hot down the stretch. They will, of course, fade, precisely because they are unsustainably hot.

Don't you learn from your mistakes? Don't you want to be a more educated, wiser fan? Don't you want to understand the sport on a deeper level than just shallow hot takes?