IGT: Cubs @ Braves (Make up game)

[bamainatlanta]

I agree, fuck fangraphs. Its pretty simple, Cubs lose 5 straight, cards win 5 straight guess what?

This isn't rocket science and I understand the probabilities as such but this is the same franchise that made up a 10game (?) Deficit in one month in 2011. Cubs go .500 ball the rest of the way and the Cards simply catch up.
Cards: 19-9 in last 28 games
Cubs: 15-14 in last 29 games

Is it likely? No
Could it happen if the Cubs hit a rough patch? Yes
Are the Cubs simply too talented and well managed to let it happen? Probably so


You think Maddon doesn't see them as ta threat because of FanGraphs? Lol
These type of leads do disappear in baseball all the fucking time. Quite astonishing that Cubs fans would simply already assume the divisional title.

 

[beckdawg]

I mentioned the same damn thing on another board and they all agreed, for whatever reason on here some of you either really think this team invincible, or you just afraid to step out of the safe zone because your afraid of the trolls on here or are the trolls

It's nothing to do with thinking the team is invincible. It's also nothing to do with stepping out of the safe zone whatever that means. It's about cold hard logic. Those of us who are frustrated to all hell about people worrying about the cardinals are living in a reality where a 5% chance of something happening isn't something to get worried over and it's frankly annoying as fuck to have people(not necessarily you) keep telling us to panic because a team is 4.5 back. I mean you can quibble about that number if you like but what is undeniable is that the odds of st louis winning the division are quite low. If you're someone who can't accept that logic(talking generally not just you here) then it's frankly pointless having a conversation because we're living in two separate realities. There's only so many ways I can show people how unlikely it is. At some point they either have to accept it or they are just being willfully ignorant.

What annoys the fuck out of me so much and I imagine others is to see people invent the most convoluted scenarios to make the discussion even mildly interesting. Case in point

I agree, fuck fangraphs. Its pretty simple, Cubs lose 5 straight, cards win 5 straight guess what?

Ok so in this scenario the cubs suddenly become 79-59 and the cards become 80-59 because fuck the cubs I guess. I mean there's no logic given as to why the cubs are suddenly going to lose 5 straight not to mention the fact that the cardinals would still be playing ridiculous baseball which I've already outlined as being unlikely. But fuck it, let's go with the crazy. Again there's no logic given to which games the cubs are magically going to lose so let's just say the next 3 vs philly and the first 2 vs MIL and like wise the cards win 3 vs cincy and 2 vs wash.

So, if that happens the cards would then be half a game up with 1 game @was, 3@det, 3 vs pit, 4 vs LA, 3 @atl, 3 vs SF, 3 vs MIL and 3 @cubs. The cubs on the other hand would have 1 @mil, 4 @was, 3 vs mil, 3 vs cin, 3 @ari, 3 @sox, 4 vs pit and 3 vs STL. That leaves the cards playing 10 games vs .500 or worse teams(was, det, sf, pit) and 13 vs "good" teams(LA, mil, cubs, atl). Cubs would have 14 vs .500 or worse teams(was, cin, sox, pit), and 10 vs "good" teams(mil, ari, stl). Any rational person would favor the cubs schedule here.

This is why I keep saying it's not worth having the conversation. It literally takes the cubs losing 5 straight and st louis winning 5 straight to even make it a race and even if you assume that happens I still think most rational people would pick the cubs. And just so we're clear here, if it gets to that point where St. Louis is a game or 2 back and then you want to panic, fine go for it. But we're not there. It's just as likely that the cards will finally hit some poor luck and lose 3 of 4 or something like that as it is that the cubs will lose 5 straight while simultaneously the cards win 5 straight.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

This isn't rocket science and I understand the probabilities as such but this is the same franchise that made up a 10game (?) Deficit in one month in 2011. Cubs go .500 ball the rest of the way and the Cards simply catch up.
Cards: 19-9 in last 28 games
Cubs: 15-14 in last 29 games

Is it likely? No
Could it happen if the Cubs hit a rough patch? Yes
Are the Cubs simply too talented and well managed to let it happen? Probably so


You think Maddon doesn't see them as ta threat because of FanGraphs? Lol
These type of leads do disappear in baseball all the fucking time. Quite astonishing that Cubs fans would simply already assume the divisional title.

So you think the answer is to worry about things that aren't probable? Teams don't make up ground like that "all the time" in fact it's quite rare statistically. The point is you look at this Cubs team and what they've done in a large sample size and then you look at the smaller sample size of St. Louis and the answer is if the Cubs play like they have been, keeping in mind that they just added a top ten NL bat in Murphy and are about to add a top 20 bat in Bryant, there is nothing to worry about and looking at the game that way is foolish. Baseball is a numbers game and the numbers of the naysayers don't add up.

 

[TL1961]

I am not at all suggesting it is impossible. That is not true.

I am saying that worrying about it as though it is inevitable prevents you from enjoying the season if it does NOT happen.

Saying "this is the same franchise that overcame a 10 game deficit...." is true, but completely unrelated. Different players, different season, different manager, different opponents. The fact that they are wearing the same uniform is irrelevant and does not at all - as implied - make it more likely.

It is true that the shorter the time period, the less that percentages come into play. Nobody's going to play 1.000 ball all year, but any team can win 5 in a row. And the fact that the Cubs and Cards play head to head makes it better for the Cards than if they did not.

But again....the Cards playing 20-5 the past month does not mean they are such a juggernaut that they will play at that .800 clip the rest of the way. And if they DO somehow (they won't), they'd be 22-6. The Cubs would need to play 17-12, hardly a yeoman's task. Could the Cubs falter and play under .500? Sure! Say they go 13-16. Cards would need to be 18-10 to overtake them. This was Beckdawg's point. Those numbers are not looking good for the Cards to win the central. It's every bit as likely the Cubs add to their lead as lose it.

 

[Diehardfan]

Some dufus posted all it takes is the Cubs to lose 5 while the Cards win 5...they will be tied. Well, that's a two way street...but it's not 5 but 3. If the Cubs win 3 while the Cards lose 3, it's not tied..... it's OVER.

 

[chibears55]

I am not at all suggesting it is impossible. That is not true.

I am saying that worrying about it as though it is inevitable prevents you from enjoying the season if it does NOT happen.

Saying "this is the same franchise that overcame a 10 game deficit...." is true, but completely unrelated. Different players, different season, different manager, different opponents. The fact that they are wearing the same uniform is irrelevant and does not at all - as implied - make it more likely.

It is true that the shorter the time period, the less that percentages come into play. Nobody's going to play 1.000 ball all year, but any team can win 5 in a row. And the fact that the Cubs and Cards play head to head makes it better for the Cards than if they did not.

But again....the Cards playing 20-5 the past month does not mean they are such a juggernaut that they will play at that .800 clip the rest of the way. And if they DO somehow (they won't), they'd be 22-6. The Cubs would need to play 17-12, hardly a yeoman's task. Could the Cubs falter and play under .500? Sure! Say they go 13-16. Cards would need to be 18-10 to overtake them. This was Beckdawg's point. Those numbers are not looking good for the Cards to win the central. It's every bit as likely the Cubs add to their lead as lose it.

I never say or said i was worried about it, that what gets me with some of you with your responses..

I simply just said what ahead for them and basically said they need to get through this upcoming stress and they should be ok...

It not negative or think their gonna blow it, it pretty much just pointing out the obvious...

I mean yea we can easily be that fan and say 13 games against potential playoff teams no problem, theyll win easily..
Cardinals riding on a month long high and play 12 games against lesser teams, sure we can be that fan and say F$%# Cardinals theyll fall back and lose..

But in reality, they play the games on the field not on computers and not on paper...
So yes anything can happen in this 2 week strss and why i simply said they just need to get through this and they should be ok..

It a statement far from bashing the Cubs or being worried theyll blow it..
But some of you guys just like to nake things more then what it is because that seems to be the thing to do on this site..

Ive been on and looked into other boards, what a world of difference with the group that posts on there and here..

I can bring up the exact same topics there and they discuss it civilly whether they agree or not..

So anyways im done with this topic, it really wasn't something i expected a big backlash over because it was something simple..
Just keep winning and avoid a losing streak in this stress, that all..
Go cubs

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[beckdawg]

But in reality, they play the games on the field not on computers and not on paper...

Can we please retire this trite talking point? Baseball very much is won on computers and on paper. To say other wise is ignoring the past decade of baseball. And I'm not trying to make this a big deal because you said it but I keep seeing it and it bothers me because what people really want to say is more akin to get out of the game nerds. A more accurate statement would be there are other intangibles than statistics that also matter. But people saying crap like this entirely devalues an astronomically large portion of the game currently. The only difference between a site like fangraphs and the numbers actual teams use is they likely have more data and better metrics.

People are kidding themselves if they believe teams aren't using win projection models similar to things I've cited here to make actual baseball decisions on stuff like whether or not to sell at the deadline and how hard to push in terms of buying. And it goes beyond that. It varies team to team but there's some teams like houston that rely almost entirely on analytics rather than scouting in the draft. I've seen prospect writers talk about it suggesting that certain teams couldn't care less about scouting experience. They'd rather have lots of cheap labor who essentially push numbers into their programs. Additionally, most teams these days entirely position defenses based on computer models. And there's pitching/hitting matchups....etc.

Players ultimately have to execute the game plan but suggesting data doesn't come into play is basically the same as suggesting a battle plan in war is useless and it's the soldiers that win the war. The data puts players in a position to succeed or fail. Jake Arrieta with the O's probably ends his career never making it. Good for him making the most of his opportunity with the cubs but ultimately they put him in a position to succeed.

 

[chibears55]

Can we please retire this trite talking point? Baseball very much is won on computers and on paper. To say other wise is ignoring the past decade of baseball. And I'm not trying to make this a big deal because you said it but I keep seeing it and it bothers me because what people really want to say is more akin to get out of the game nerds. A more accurate statement would be there are other intangibles than statistics that also matter. But people saying crap like this entirely devalues an astronomically large portion of the game currently. The only difference between a site like fangraphs and the numbers actual teams use is they likely have more data and better metrics.

People are kidding themselves if they believe teams aren't using win projection models similar to things I've cited here to make actual baseball decisions on stuff like whether or not to sell at the deadline and how hard to push in terms of buying. And it goes beyond that. It varies team to team but there's some teams like houston that rely almost entirely on analytics rather than scouting in the draft. I've seen prospect writers talk about it suggesting that certain teams couldn't care less about scouting experience. They'd rather have lots of cheap labor who essentially push numbers into their programs. Additionally, most teams these days entirely position defenses based on computer models. And there's pitching/hitting matchups....etc.

Players ultimately have to execute the game plan but suggesting data doesn't come into play is basically the same as suggesting a battle plan in war is useless and it's the soldiers that win the war. The data puts players in a position to succeed or fail. Jake Arrieta with the O's probably ends his career never making it. Good for him making the most of his opportunity with the cubs but ultimately they put him in a position to succeed.

Of course the use of data helps with preparing for games/series but that doesn't mean the outcome going to be exact..

There a lot of human elements that goes on during a 9 inning ball game that you dont get printed off the computer before the game..

Strategies arent always executed, umpires dont always call pitches correctly, errors happens, opponents have their own strategy etc etc.
That why the games are played because anything can happen

Take what happened on the last road trip for example..

Did the computer predict the Cubs scoring 1 run in 5 straight games against 2 teams they should of been able to score on on paper ? Doubt it

Noone saying the data don't help the players , just saying the games still need to be played and the outcomes arent always what expected because nothing goes perfect and as expected from the first pitch to the last..



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[fatbeard]

It's useless.

 

[CSF77]

Might be something.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/08/josh-donaldson-trade-rumors-blue-jays-cardinals-indians.html

 

[beckdawg]

Take what happened on the last road trip for example..

Did the computer predict the Cubs scoring 1 run in 5 straight games against 2 teams they should of been able to score on on paper ? Doubt it

Noone saying the data don't help the players , just saying the games still need to be played and the outcomes arent always what expected because nothing goes perfect and as expected from the first pitch to the last..

This is sort of missing the point. Projecting anything from baseball to the weather isn't about being 100% accurate. It's about finding the potential range of outcomes. That's the entire reason why when I've talked about this I didn't just mention the 95.4 or whatever it was at the time projected win total the cubs had on fangraphs. Instead I talked about the 25th and 75th percentile. As this pertains to the cubs and the games needing to be played, the simulations cover that more than you would expect. In the 10,000 simulations they ran there were a few cases where the cubs only won 87 games. That effectively covers the cases people are talking about where they go 8-21. Conversely there's simulations where the cubs win 103 games. Likewise, the cards have 79 win simulations and 99 win simulations. So, it's not like the projections don't see those potential outcomes. It's just that they occurred so infrequently that putting any real expectation on them happening would be silly.

To your point, do unexpected things happen? Of course they do but if you're going to take the stance of saying it's useless to look at this sort of stuff because "anything can happen" then what's the point of even talking about the games? At some point you have to define what's an acceptable range of things likely to happen because if you aren't going to do that then how can you have any conversation involving the future? Mila Kunis could theoretically ditch Ashton Kutcher and call me up for some happy happy fun time because "anything can happen" but clearly that isn't something worth discussing as even remotely likely as much as I'd like it to happen. If you're going to live in that range then why even talk about the games? You're essentially saying the games are so unpredictable that no one should bother having an opinion on the outcome until it occurs.

 

[chibears55]

To your point, do unexpected things happen? Of course they do but if you're going to take the stance of saying it's useless to look at this sort of stuff because "anything can happen" then what's the point of even talking about the games? At some point you have to define what's an acceptable range of things likely to happen because if you aren't going to do that then how can you have any conversation involving the future? Mila Kunis could theoretically ditch Ashton Kutcher and call me up for some happy happy fun time because "anything can happen" but clearly that isn't something worth discussing as even remotely likely as much as I'd like it to happen. If you're going to live in that range then why even talk about the games? You're essentially saying the games are so unpredictable that no one should bother having an opinion on the outcome until it occurs.

Tell me the outcome of this weekend series of the cubs Phillies games, so i can make my bets..

Youre making it sound like why should they bother playing because they already know outcomes..

What your opinion on tonight outcome before they play the game


Games are somewhat unpredictable.
Do you know what going to happen every inning ?
You know the score?
Who getting the hits?
How many Ks?
Let us know so i dont have to watch





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[TL1961]

I never say or said i was worried about it, that what gets me with some of you with your responses..

I simply just said what ahead for them and basically said they need to get through this upcoming stress and they should be ok...

It not negative or think their gonna blow it, it pretty much just pointing out the obvious...

I mean yea we can easily be that fan and say 13 games against potential playoff teams no problem, theyll win easily..
Cardinals riding on a month long high and play 12 games against lesser teams, sure we can be that fan and say F$%# Cardinals theyll fall back and lose..

But in reality, they play the games on the field not on computers and not on paper...
So yes anything can happen in this 2 week strss and why i simply said they just need to get through this and they should be ok..

It a statement far from bashing the Cubs or being worried theyll blow it..
But some of you guys just like to nake things more then what it is because that seems to be the thing to do on this site..

Ive been on and looked into other boards, what a world of difference with the group that posts on there and here..

I can bring up the exact same topics there and they discuss it civilly whether they agree or not..

So anyways im done with this topic, it really wasn't something i expected a big backlash over because it was something simple..
Just keep winning and avoid a losing streak in this stress, that all..
Go cubs

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

You don’t need to explicitly type the words “I am worried about <insert issue of the day here>”

Simply posting about it repeatedly says that for you.

You never stop posting doom and gloom. We can read and comprehend.

 

[TL1961]

Why is it you can type “games are somewhat unpredictable” but can’t also comprehend that they are also, therefore, somewhat predictable?

 

[TL1961]

Tell me the outcome of this weekend series of the cubs Phillies games, so i can make my bets..

Youre making it sound like why should they bother playing because they already know outcomes..

What your opinion on tonight outcome before they play the game


Games are somewhat unpredictable.
Do you know what going to happen every inning ?
You know the score?
Who getting the hits?
How many Ks?
Let us know so i dont have to watch





Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

Just the fact that you can post this proves how badly you miss the point.

 

[chibears55]

You don’t need to explicitly type the words “I am worried about <insert issue of the day here>”

Simply posting about it repeatedly says that for you.

You never stop posting doom and gloom. We can read and comprehend.

ZZZZZZZZZ
[emoji42][emoji42][emoji42][emoji42]

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[chibears55]

Just the fact that you can post this proves how badly you miss the point.

Tell me the point then...

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[beckdawg]

Tell me the outcome of this weekend series of the cubs Phillies games, so i can make my bets..

Youre making it sound like why should they bother playing because they already know outcomes..

What your opinion on tonight outcome before they play the game


Games are somewhat unpredictable.
Do you know what going to happen every inning ?
You know the score?
Who getting the hits?
How many Ks?
Let us know so i dont have to watch





Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

Yet again you're missing the point. I literally just told you that it's about a range of potential outcomes not about being 100% correct. A range of potential outcomes would likely have the cubs mean win rate for the series some where between 1.6-1.9 wins. In other words, they would be favored to win 2 games but probably not all 3 where as with say a series vs cincy their mean win rate would likely be 2.1-2.3 where they probably win 2 and have a shot at 3. As for why bother playing.... you're purposefully being this obtuse right? I mean that question is effectively asking why go outside tomorrow if you watch the weather tonight.

I really don't get why this is so difficult for you to grasp this concept. Let me try this a different way. Quintana's ERA is 4.33. You're effectively arguing that ERA as a stat is totally meaningless because anything can happen tonight. I'm arguing that Quintana has a 4.33 ERA and has averaged a little more than 5.1 IP a start therefore a reasonable expectation for his start tonight would be something between 5-6 innings with 2-3 runs earned runs.

I've been as patient as I can but I literally don't know any way to be more clear than that. Having that sort of expectation isn't any kind of guarantee. If I wasn't using stats and were just talking common sense most people would say yeah that makes sense because if he gives up 2 runs over 6 that's a 3 ERA and if he gives up 3 over 5 innings that's a 5.40. You add 5.40 and 3 and divide by two and you get 4.20 which is nearly his seasonal ERA.

Being very simplistic that's all win projections is doing. It's taking the high end likelihood and the low end likelihood and finding the middle point between them. And again the point isn't that that middle point will be 100% accurate. It's that a reasonable expectation for an outcome is the middle point between the high extreme and the low extreme.

 

[Diehardfan]

You don’t need to explicitly type the words “I am worried about <insert issue of the day here>”

Simply posting about it repeatedly says that for you.

You never stop posting doom and gloom. We can read and comprehend.

Rather than deal with someone with an IQ of a carbuncle, I find the ignore option to be quite rewarding....did you get the emojis or the lmao as a response? It's what he does when he has no answer, which is often.

 

[Diehardfan]

Yet again you're missing the point. I literally just told you that it's about a range of potential outcomes not about being 100% correct. A range of potential outcomes would likely have the cubs mean win rate for the series some where between 1.6-1.9 wins. In other words, they would be favored to win 2 games but probably not all 3 where as with say a series vs cincy their mean win rate would likely be 2.1-2.3 where they probably win 2 and have a shot at 3. As for why bother playing.... you're purposefully being this obtuse right? I mean that question is effectively asking why go outside tomorrow if you watch the weather tonight.

I really don't get why this is so difficult for you to grasp this concept. Let me try this a different way. Quintana's ERA is 4.33. You're effectively arguing that ERA as a stat is totally meaningless because anything can happen tonight. I'm arguing that Quintana has a 4.33 ERA and has averaged a little more than 5.1 IP a start therefore a reasonable expectation for his start tonight would be something between 5-6 innings with 2-3 runs earned runs.

I've been as patient as I can but I literally don't know any way to be more clear than that. Having that sort of expectation isn't any kind of guarantee. If I wasn't using stats and were just talking common sense most people would say yeah that makes sense because if he gives up 2 runs over 6 that's a 3 ERA and if he gives up 3 over 5 innings that's a 5.40. You add 5.40 and 3 and divide by two and you get 4.20 which is nearly his seasonal ERA.

Being very simplistic that's all win projections is doing. It's taking the high end likelihood and the low end likelihood and finding the middle point between them. And again the point isn't that that middle point will be 100% accurate. It's that a reasonable expectation for an outcome is the middle point between the high extreme and the low extreme.

I understand the mathematical theory and it's sound but my question to you is this....why? What is the purpose of this? Are you a betting man? I don't get why prognosticating a baseball game has any interest....just watch the game and see what happens. If you went to a movie...would it make sense to know the ending before you sat down? Isn't not knowing what will happen what makes sports so interesting? I'm not at all trying to be an ass...I'm serious. What is the point of trying to figure out what will happen before it does?