I understand the mathematical theory and it's sound but my question to you is this....why? What is the purpose of this? Are you a betting man? I don't get why prognosticating a baseball game has any interest....just watch the game and see what happens. If you went to a movie...would it make sense to know the ending before you sat down? Isn't not knowing what will happen what makes sports so interesting? I'm not at all trying to be an ass...I'm serious. What is the point of trying to figure out what will happen before it does?
Context I guess would be my answer. People can look at the standings in baseball but those numbers don't really tell you the context. How good is a 4 game lead in april? How good is a 4 game lead in september? If you don't understand the likely outcomes they would effectively be identical because if we're playing the "anything can happen" game then everything is on the table. Intuitively you know that having a 4 game lead in april is paramount to nothing while having a lead later in the season is of bigger importance. But you know that because you have historical context which is just a different way of assessing the situation but goes to the same goal.
If you are someone who doesn't care about the end results and just enjoys the ride more power to you. However, I would argue there's not much discussion to be had with someone who approaches the game that way. I'd also suggest that it helps manage expectations. As humans we aren't particularly good at evaluating situations emotionless. If you win a tough series vs a rival you feel on top of the world and if you lose a series to a bad team you feel shitty. If you're carrying around that emotional baggage when you watch games it can drive some people nutty. On the other hand, if you look at a projection for say 30 games and it says you're going to win 18 of 30 does it really matter which 18?
That's why I like it. It removes some of the chaos. Another way to look at it would be asa guide to the playoffs. You win at this rate consistently and you should win the division/make the playoffs. It's obviously no guarantee but it puts context on where you are after the results of a given day.
Edit: on my way to grab some food I thought of another way to say this. To use your movie example, it's not about knowing the ending before it happens though I think you could to an extent make an analogy to tv fanbases who enjoy theorycrafting what will happen with the mystery of a series. To me the actual events that happen would be like the plot points in a movie. But the plot points don't tell a good story. They get you from a to b. For example you can summarize most movies quickly. Predator is a movie about a commando who kills an alien. That in of itself isn't a good story. What was the alien like? Was he ET? Was he the bad ass killing machine he was in the movie? Was it in a city? Was it in a jungle?....etc think you get the point.
That adds color to the story. And more color always makes a story more enjoyable to experience.
