IST: Cardinals vs Cubs

[chibears55]

This teams greatest weakness that what most people thought earlier in the season was their strength does them in today, again!


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Yep....

Sure they made the playoffs, but how much confidence do you have in this offense against the Dodgers or Rockies top 2 starters in a WC or if they somehow still win the Div. , NLDS?

Quintana vs Kershaw
Quintana vs Freeland

Who you have more confidence in?

Also the depleted bullpen in a close game


I mean it great they made the playoff again and anything possible, but their play this month and depleted bullpen has put a damper on the excitement and confidence level of them going deep..

 

[beckdawg]

Yep....

Sure they made the playoffs, but how much confidence do you have in this offense against the Dodgers or Rockies top 2 starters in a WC or if they somehow still win the Div. , NLDS?

Quintana vs Kershaw
Quintana vs Freeland

Who you have more confidence in?

Also the depleted bullpen in a close game


I mean it great they made the playoff again and anything possible, but their play this month and depleted bullpen has put a damper on the excitement and confidence level of them going deep..

FYI kershaw is pitching today. I doubt he'd be available for the wc game.

 

[chibears55]

FYI kershaw is pitching today. I doubt he'd be available for the wc game.

Ok..
Alex Wood would be tough too for them

 

[Ari Bear]

Yep....

Sure they made the playoffs, but how much confidence do you have in this offense against the Dodgers or Rockies top 2 starters in a WC or if they somehow still win the Div. , NLDS?

Quintana vs Kershaw
Quintana vs Freeland

Who you have more confidence in?

Also the depleted bullpen in a close game


I mean it great they made the playoff again and anything possible, but their play this month and depleted bullpen has put a damper on the excitement and confidence level of them going deep..

Yeah, that's it. It's hard to see this team making a deep run in the playoffs, especially the way the Rockies and Brewers have been playing lately. Though clinching the division would give them 3 days of rest which this team does need they've had like only one day off in the last like 5 weeks. Mentally they look a little worn down.

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[beckdawg]

I mean it great they made the playoff again and anything possible, but their play this month and depleted bullpen has put a damper on the excitement and confidence level of them going deep..

Also, i'm going to try to be gentle here because think your heart is more in the right place than some but are you that down about the cubs going 15-12 in September given the struggle they had to deal with prior with 30 straight days of games and the numerous injury issues? I guess what frustrates me the most is people act like the cubs haven't won 94 games. They were 55-38 in the first half which is a .591 win% and they are 39-29 in the second half which is a .574 win%. Maybe you argue they are playing a little worse in the second half but when you factor in what they have dealt with it seems reasonable to say this has largely been the same team all year. The fact that there is still a race in the division isn't the cubs "fault" as it were. It's the fact that MIL has been probably the best team in baseball for a month and a half.

As for the playoff talk, I guess my question would be what more realistically would you have the cubs do? Obviously you want them to play better. But just wanting that to happen doesn't make it so. They made trades at the deadline and by in large they were all fantastic. They tried to add pieces this offseason to make the team better as well. Those didn't turn out well but what was the other option? Sign Arrieta? He has a 3.96 ERA and has a worse contract than Darvish. Sign Cobb rather than Chatwood? Maybe you have a point there to an extent but it's not like Cobb was good either with a 4.90 ERA. Morrow was great but got hurt.

So, for me anyways I just don't see what there is to be that upset about. Like I get the disappointment if the cubs were to lose the division and if they were to lose in the wild card game. But it's not like they have tanked in the second half. And it's not like they didn't try to get better. If they don't advance in the playoffs it just isn't their year.

 

[chibears55]

Also, i'm going to try to be gentle here because think your heart is more in the right place than some but are you that down about the cubs going 15-12 in September given the struggle they had to deal with prior with 30 straight days of games and the numerous injury issues? I guess what frustrates me the most is people act like the cubs haven't won 94 games. They were 55-38 in the first half which is a .591 win% and they are 39-29 in the second half which is a .574 win%. Maybe you argue they are playing a little worse in the second half but when you factor in what they have dealt with it seems reasonable to say this has largely been the same team all year. The fact that there is still a race in the division isn't the cubs "fault" as it were. It's the fact that MIL has been probably the best team in baseball for a month and a half.

As for the playoff talk, I guess my question would be what more realistically would you have the cubs do? Obviously you want them to play better. But just wanting that to happen doesn't make it so. They made trades at the deadline and by in large they were all fantastic. They tried to add pieces this offseason to make the team better as well. Those didn't turn out well but what was the other option? Sign Arrieta? He has a 3.96 ERA and has a worse contract than Darvish. Sign Cobb rather than Chatwood? Maybe you have a point there to an extent but it's not like Cobb was good either with a 4.90 ERA. Morrow was great but got hurt.

So, for me anyways I just don't see what there is to be that upset about. Like I get the disappointment if the cubs were to lose the division and if they were to lose in the wild card game. But it's not like they have tanked in the second half. And it's not like they didn't try to get better. If they don't advance in the playoffs it just isn't their year.

Nope.. i get the 30 straight games hurt them

But


I also just see this team for what it is now and has been most of the year, specifically the offense , inconsistent.

The offense for the most part has been inconsistent and struggled all year despite where they rank or ranked in RS..
The RS has been basically them having a bunch of high scoring games but we've seen them go through too many stretches of scoring 3 or less.

They basically have 2 guys Baez and Rizzo that has been consistent, the rest have been mostly down all year.
So if either of those 2 are held in check, the offense going to be quiet for the most part.

The Bullpen in shambles now because of injuries to Strop and Morrow,
Plus because of that and mainly because the SP struggled to go 5 or 6 for the most part all season til recently and Maddon quick hooks at times , the pen worn down..

The SP, specifically Lester Hamels Hendricks have been great and their the best hope they have to go deep..
But were asking them to basically go at least 7 ip of 2 runs or less every outing just to have hope, because of the questionable offense and the pen.

Then there Maddon..
There always that possibility he makes a head scratching move that has a 50/50 chance of screwing the game up or winning it..lol

Anyone know why Happ started over Schwarber today against the RHer in a big must win game for the division and more importantly extra days off to rest a tired team?

Like i said it great they made the playoffs and all but hard to get excited about this team now because they have 2/3 of the team that going to be a big question mark headed into the postseason...
Offense and Bullpen

 

[kapooncha]

Also, i'm going to try to be gentle here because think your heart is more in the right place than some but are you that down about the cubs going 15-12 in September given the struggle they had to deal with prior with 30 straight days of games and the numerous injury issues? I guess what frustrates me the most is people act like the cubs haven't won 94 games. They were 55-38 in the first half which is a .591 win% and they are 39-29 in the second half which is a .574 win%. Maybe you argue they are playing a little worse in the second half but when you factor in what they have dealt with it seems reasonable to say this has largely been the same team all year. The fact that there is still a race in the division isn't the cubs "fault" as it were. It's the fact that MIL has been probably the best team in baseball for a month and a half.

As for the playoff talk, I guess my question would be what more realistically would you have the cubs do? Obviously you want them to play better. But just wanting that to happen doesn't make it so. They made trades at the deadline and by in large they were all fantastic. They tried to add pieces this offseason to make the team better as well. Those didn't turn out well but what was the other option? Sign Arrieta? He has a 3.96 ERA and has a worse contract than Darvish. Sign Cobb rather than Chatwood? Maybe you have a point there to an extent but it's not like Cobb was good either with a 4.90 ERA. Morrow was great but got hurt.

So, for me anyways I just don't see what there is to be that upset about. Like I get the disappointment if the cubs were to lose the division and if they were to lose in the wild card game. But it's not like they have tanked in the second half. And it's not like they didn't try to get better. If they don't advance in the playoffs it just isn't their year.

Beck I think what frustrates me with you is you're okay as long as the Cubs go try their best. I mean, I guess that's the right approach if this was tee ball. But it's friggin MLB. All that matters is winning.

 

[beckdawg]

The offense for the most part has been inconsistent and struggled all year despite where they rank or ranked in RS..

That's what you get from young players. It's easy to forget just how young some of these guys are. The consistent players they have had were Heyward when he wasn't hurt after like the first month of the season, Zobrist pretty much all year, Bryant when he wasn't hurt and Rizzo after starting slow. Baez wasn't as streaky as he's been in the past but in April June July and August he was 135 wRC+ or higher. In May and this month he's been 101 and 114 respectively. That's a fairly big fall off in those two months. Not saying that losing was all his fault or anything because rarely does anyone continually play at their top level. But more so to point out that when he's inconsistent is when the team struggled. After that though you're relying heavy on Almora(24), Russell(24), Schwarber(25), Contreras(26), Bote(25), Happ(24) Caratini(25) and La Stella who's 29 but more a PH only bat than a true role player.

That in my eyes is the issue. For whatever reason none of the back half of the line up was ever going at the same time. I suppose there's an argument to be made that the mistake was relying that much on young players but I honestly don't know what else they could have done different. In hindsight, if there was a legitimate Machado trade out there maybe they should have gone more aggressive though given the O's didn't deal him I doubt he was truly available until midseason.

I think a lot of this also comes down to perspective. If we had this performance out of the 2015 cubs everyone would be thrilled. But because they won in 2016 expectations have been raised. Likewise, if the cubs were in the NL east or west I think we'd be having a different conversation. But because the second best team is the brewers and they are breathing down the cubs neck people are upset. People want a steady rise to greatness but development for players isn't linear. Typically speaking your peak playing years are 27-32. Rizzo and Heyward are the only two cubs in that range. So, I think people need to take that into account when we're discussing inconsistent play.

That's not to suggest that there isn't an issue at play. But I think saying "they suck" or whatever isn't a very nuanced way of talking about the problem. Baez was incredibly inconsistent prior to this year. But you have to let guys work through their issues if you ever want to see the rewards. With that being said, it's probably fair to suggest you pick the ones who have the highest upside and surround them next year with some more vet talent. One or two more vets plugged into the line up probably makes a world of difference. Imagine having another Zobrist for example.

 

[SilenceS]

Beck I think what frustrates me with you is you're okay as long as the Cubs go try their best. I mean, I guess that's the right approach if this was tee ball. But it's friggin MLB. All that matters is winning.

Dynamite drop in Monty

 

[beckdawg]

Also for what it's worth, which cubs team would you rather have headed into the playoffs? The 2017 cubs or the 2018 cubs? The 2017 cubs won 92 games and IMO had far more questions than the 2018 cubs. I think in all phases the cubs this year are a superior team to the 2017 cubs with the possible exception at closer. But I'd much rather the 2018 bullpen than the 2017 bullpen.

 

[chibears55]

That's what you get from young players. It's easy to forget just how young some of these guys are. The consistent players they have had were Heyward when he wasn't hurt after like the first month of the season, Zobrist pretty much all year, Bryant when he wasn't hurt and Rizzo after starting slow. Baez wasn't as streaky as he's been in the past but in April June July and August he was 135 wRC+ or higher. In May and this month he's been 101 and 114 respectively. That's a fairly big fall off in those two months. Not saying that losing was all his fault or anything because rarely does anyone continually play at their top level. But more so to point out that when he's inconsistent is when the team struggled. After that though you're relying heavy on Almora(24), Russell(24), Schwarber(25), Contreras(26), Bote(25), Happ(24) Caratini(25) and La Stella who's 29 but more a PH only bat than a true role player.

That in my eyes is the issue. For whatever reason none of the back half of the line up was ever going at the same time. I suppose there's an argument to be made that the mistake was relying that much on young players but I honestly don't know what else they could have done different. In hindsight, if there was a legitimate Machado trade out there maybe they should have gone more aggressive though given the O's didn't deal him I doubt he was truly available until midseason.

I think a lot of this also comes down to perspective. If we had this performance out of the 2015 cubs everyone would be thrilled. But because they won in 2016 expectations have been raised. Likewise, if the cubs were in the NL east or west I think we'd be having a different conversation. But because the second best team is the brewers and they are breathing down the cubs neck people are upset. People want a steady rise to greatness but development for players isn't linear. Typically speaking your peak playing years are 27-32. Rizzo and Heyward are the only two cubs in that range. So, I think people need to take that into account when we're discussing inconsistent play.

That's not to suggest that there isn't an issue at play. But I think saying "they suck" or whatever isn't a very nuanced way of talking about the problem. Baez was incredibly inconsistent prior to this year. But you have to let guys work through their issues if you ever want to see the rewards. With that being said, it's probably fair to suggest you pick the ones who have the highest upside and surround them next year with some more vet talent. One or two more vets plugged into the line up probably makes a world of difference. Imagine having another Zobrist for example.

Young yes, inexperienced no
4 years and high impact games of experience for most of these guys..

I forgot Zobrist with Baez and Rizzo
and yes, Bryant gets a little pass with the injury.

The rest as in Schwarber, Almora(2ndhalf), Russell, and Contreras dont get a pass..
They should know how to readjust by now, they all have over 1000 career ABs combined both regular and postseason.

We will just have different opinion on that and agree to disagree there...


Moving forward to this offseason and 2019..

Contreras should improve next year, i think he just needs a better backup who can provide him more rest and he seems to be the type who will work harder in offseason to improve..

Rizzo Baez and Bryant should all be healthy and ready for 2019

Schwarber came into the year healthy and in better shape, he improved his defense but he still basically a 25-30 HR guy who can walk..
He struggles too much to be a solid middle of the order guy.
Can he improve? i dont know
The Shift hurts him alot, so unless he can figure out how to beat it more often, he looks to be a .230 to .250 type hitter with some power and walks.

Almora and Happ , i think are role players ..
More defensive type players and guys you use against certain pitchers..

Russell, who knows now where his career ends up after this situation with him...

Bote i like defensively, especially at 3B
Hopefully he works hard this offseason and returns next year with a better more consistent bat.
I personally wouldn't mind seeing him at 3B and Bryant in LF in the near future .


I really believe that management is going to make some changes this offseason..

Contreras Rizzo Baez and Bryant are going to be the only guys that are definitely returning from the main core..

Not saying the rest are gone but if Theo and Jed can improve/upgrade at other positions, i hope they will try..

I think Harper or Machado are definitely high priorities for them..
I definitely think they could do both if they can agree to work out money part to be added more towards end of deal.
But i think they will definitely go hard after one of them and that will change the mix of this current team.

Adding either guy means 1 or 2 of the core guys will need to be moved

I said before, it wouldn't disappoint me if they move Schwarber and Russell

 

[kapooncha]

Young yes, inexperienced no
4 years and high impact games of experience for most of these guys..

I forgot Zobrist with Baez and Rizzo
and yes, Bryant gets a little pass with the injury.

The rest as in Schwarber, Almora(2ndhalf), Russell, and Contreras dont get a pass..
They should know how to readjust by now, they all have over 1000 career ABs combined both regular and postseason.

We will just have different opinion on that and agree to disagree there...


Moving forward to this offseason and 2019..

Contreras should improve next year, i think he just needs a better backup who can provide him more rest and he seems to be the type who will work harder in offseason to improve..

Rizzo Baez and Bryant should all be healthy and ready for 2019

Schwarber came into the year healthy and in better shape, he improved his defense but he still basically a 25-30 HR guy who can walk..
He struggles too much to be a solid middle of the order guy.
Can he improve? i dont know
The Shift hurts him alot, so unless he can figure out how to beat it more often, he looks to be a .230 to .250 type hitter with some power and walks.

Almora and Happ , i think are role players ..
More defensive type players and guys you use against certain pitchers..

Russell, who knows now where his career ends up after this situation with him...

Bote i like defensively, especially at 3B
Hopefully he works hard this offseason and returns next year with a better more consistent bat.
I personally wouldn't mind seeing him at 3B and Bryant in LF in the near future .


I really believe that management is going to make some changes this offseason..

Contreras Rizzo Baez and Bryant are going to be the only guys that are definitely returning from the main core..

Not saying the rest are gone but if Theo and Jed can improve/upgrade at other positions, i hope they will try..

I think Harper or Machado are definitely high priorities for them..
I definitely think they could do both if they can agree to work out money part to be added more towards end of deal.
But i think they will definitely go hard after one of them and that will change the mix of this current team.

Adding either guy means 1 or 2 of the core guys will need to be moved

I said before, it wouldn't disappoint me if they move Schwarber and Russell

There is approximately 0% chance of Cubs landing both Harper and Machado. Can we just dispense with that nonsense right now please?

 

[chibears55]

Also for what it's worth, which cubs team would you rather have headed into the playoffs? The 2017 cubs or the 2018 cubs? The 2017 cubs won 92 games and IMO had far more questions than the 2018 cubs. I think in all phases the cubs this year are a superior team to the 2017 cubs with the possible exception at closer. But I'd much rather the 2018 bullpen than the 2017 bullpen.

Which bullpen?
Hmmm
Lol

Tough one there, last year pen blew outside of Davis

This year unless Strop comes back healthy and on, her will be questionable..
they dont have a legit set up or closer and the rest are gassed

I guess this year can be better despite no setup or closer, problem going to be is they will definitely need the SP to go deep because if they have to burn 3+ of their main relievers in 1 game, their in trouble...

Monty could help if he able to readjust back to a bullpen mentality and be ready..

This way they can have both Monty and Chavez to help eat multiple innings if needed

 

[chibears55]

There is approximately 0% chance of Cubs landing both Harper and Machado. Can we just dispense with that nonsense right now please?

If your 0% means financially, because they can't afford it, youre wrong with that thought, because they can if allowed by those 2 to spread it out more onto the backend ..

Do i think it will happen? No

 

[beckdawg]

We will just have different opinion on that and agree to disagree there...

I don't want to make a big conversation of this since clearly you're pretty dug in here. But I think it's worth pointing out there's more than one type of player. There's your great players who after a year or two get things going. And then there's your good players. Take a look at Andrelton Simmons. There's a lot of players in the league that follow this sort of growth. I know this because I used to be big into fantasy baseball and one of the tricks to winning was finding the so called "post-hype sleeper." That's just a way of essentially saying a guy who was a big prospect and who's meandered a bit but then suddenly hits 27 and starts raking. It's a fairly common phenomena and there's several guys a year who come out of no where to have huge years.

As this pertains to the cubs, Schwarber is having an OK year. It's not "carry the team on his shoulders" good but he's 16% better than a league average hitter. And you'd expect him to continue to improve. I think Schwarber is where Rizzo was in 2013. Rizzo had 1,211 PAs from 2011-2013 vs Schwarber's 1270. Rizzo from 2011-2013 hit .238/.324/.412 and couldn't hit LH pitching to save his life(.194/.270/.347). Schwarber is hitting .229/.340/.471 for his career and thus far also can't hit LHP to save his life(.183/.301/.310). So, when I say stuff like they are young, we have easy tailor made examples of what i'm talking about here.

Contreras I think has already proven he can hit. I'm not 100% sure what's going on with him this year largely because i never really looked too deep into it. But I mean, we know he can hit. It's just a matter of getting him back there. As for the rest, Russell's obviously got other issues than just hitting so who knows until that's resolved. Happ is the guy I've felt they may move if they sign Machado or Harper. Almora really isn't having a terrible season he just lost his power. And like Schwarber he's only had 916 career PAs so I'd still put him in the developing category.

 

[anotheridiot]

If your 0% means financially, because they can't afford it, youre wrong with that thought, because they can if allowed by those 2 to spread it out more onto the backend ..

Do i think it will happen? No

How many more years of putting 100 million into the stadium are left?

 

[chibears55]

I don't want to make a big conversation of this since clearly you're pretty dug in here. But I think it's worth pointing out there's more than one type of player. There's your great players who after a year or two get things going. And then there's your good players. Take a look at Andrelton Simmons. There's a lot of players in the league that follow this sort of growth. I know this because I used to be big into fantasy baseball and one of the tricks to winning was finding the so called "post-hype sleeper." That's just a way of essentially saying a guy who was a big prospect and who's meandered a bit but then suddenly hits 27 and starts raking. It's a fairly common phenomena and there's several guys a year who come out of no where to have huge years.

As this pertains to the cubs, Schwarber is having an OK year. It's not "carry the team on his shoulders" good but he's 16% better than a league average hitter. And you'd expect him to continue to improve. I think Schwarber is where Rizzo was in 2013. Rizzo had 1,211 PAs from 2011-2013 vs Schwarber's 1270. Rizzo from 2011-2013 hit .238/.324/.412 and couldn't hit LH pitching to save his life(.194/.270/.347). Schwarber is hitting .229/.340/.471 for his career and thus far also can't hit LHP to save his life(.183/.301/.310). So, when I say stuff like they are young, we have easy tailor made examples of what i'm talking about here.

Contreras I think has already proven he can hit. I'm not 100% sure what's going on with him this year largely because i never really looked too deep into it. But I mean, we know he can hit. It's just a matter of getting him back there. As for the rest, Russell's obviously got other issues than just hitting so who knows until that's resolved. Happ is the guy I've felt they may move if they sign Machado or Harper. Almora really isn't having a terrible season he just lost his power. And like Schwarber he's only had 916 career PAs so I'd still put him in the developing category.

Im not saying guys cant improve...
I just think they have too many guys now that they (we) dont know if itll happen for them and as we've seen the last 2 years it causes the inconsistencies in the lineup ..

It was great for 15 and 16 to have and see a young group develop together and then all click in 16 to win a championship..

The last 2 years were seeing a couple of them fall backwards a little to alot and haven't quite figured out how to readjust..

So, i guess the question for Theo and Jed is for this offseason, is do they have patience and see if certain guys can figure out how to readjust or do they look for an upgrade over them?

And as i said, adding a Harper or Machado will eliminate one or two of them mainly because their everyday players and you may have to readjust the position players..


Contreras, i really believe he just tired and because of the struggle he just trying to hard to make up for it..
I really believe he will be better next year

 

[beckdawg]

Im not saying guys cant improve...
I just think they have too many guys now that they (we) dont know if itll happen for them and as we've seen the last 2 years it causes the inconsistencies in the lineup ..

Well like I said, I think you bring in one or two vets next year and let the rest play out. For my money I'd keep Schwarber. His bat has the highest upside of anyone they have. I mean you compare where he was to 2013 Rizzo and then project where he could theoretically get to if he makes the same sorts of improvements and you're talking what like a .260-.270/.400+ ba/obp with massive power. Almora I think is fine as a heavy side of a platoon role player and if he develops into more than that great. Russell like I said who knows what happens. Happ as I mentioned I think I'd consider moving him to free some room for others. And obviously contreras isn't going anywhere.

I might also consider trading Caratini. It's not necessarily that he's bad but between him and contreras they don't really have a great framing catcher. Someone like Russell Martin might make some sense as a cheap back up guy they could get via trade. If you were to add him and say Machado I think that would help with some of the young growing pains quite a bit not to mention all of these young guys will have another year of experience.

 

[chibears55]

Well like I said, I think you bring in one or two vets next year and let the rest play out. For my money I'd keep Schwarber. His bat has the highest upside of anyone they have. I mean you compare where he was to 2013 Rizzo and then project where he could theoretically get to if he makes the same sorts of improvements and you're talking what like a .260-.270/.400+ ba/obp with massive power. Almora I think is fine as a heavy side of a platoon role player and if he develops into more than that great. Russell like I said who knows what happens. Happ as I mentioned I think I'd consider moving him to free some room for others. And obviously contreras isn't going anywhere.

I might also consider trading Caratini. It's not necessarily that he's bad but between him and contreras they don't really have a great framing catcher. Someone like Russell Martin might make some sense as a cheap back up guy they could get via trade. If you were to add him and say Machado I think that would help with some of the young growing pains quite a bit not to mention all of these young guys will have another year of experience.

See, we can agree on some things
[emoji6]

 

[beckdawg]

Daniel Norris has some pretty nasty stuff