IST: Cards at Cubs

[TC in Mississippi]

If it's an extension, the Cubs have ZERO shot. They have nothing that interest the O's as they want pitching and the Cubs have none to offer.

Two points:

1) you're absolutely right the Cubs aren't getting Machado in trade under any circumstance. Close the book.

2) The Orioles are not going to get near ready pitching back for Machado. The entire league knows that they have to trade him or simply get a draft pick so they have zero leverage. Frankly they had zero leverage in the offseason when they turned down several offers. They'll get a couple of near ready position player prospects or they'll get low level pitching that's a bit of a gamble. Frankly I think they're so stupid that they won't trade him at all because no one will meet their asking.

 

[CSF77]

Pointless to give up more value than the pick the O’s will receive for retaining him.

 

[CSF77]

Add to this: the Cubs are in great shape at SS/2B so this whole debate needs to die. Seriously.

 

[beckdawg]

Why Baez is super encouraging? He is a slow starter. His whole career. He warms up with the weather. Him playing like this in the cold should be exciting for all.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Weather isn't the reason IMO you should get hyped on Baez's start. The reason I'm fairly jazzed as someone who never was that jazzed before is he's hitting RHP. Not just hitting but destroying. He's hitting .313/.405/.906 for an absurd 246 wRC+. And his walk rate and k rate are fantastic given what we think of him as(8.1%/21.6%). As a comparison, last year was easily his best year hitting RHP and he only hit .258/304/.443(85 wRC+) with 5.9%/29.3% bb/k rate.

There is a little weirdness right now with him vs LHP. He's hitting .105/.227/.263 with 13.6%/22.7% bb/k rate. I think that's entirely babip driven though as his babip is .077 and we know in the past he crushes left handed pitching. Either way, he's turning K's into walks and that's going to pay dividends.

Even if the improvement in RHP isn't entirely real, if he's an average hitter vs RHP that's a big step forward. If he's a very good hitter vs RHP then he's probably a 5+ win player.

 

[beckdawg]

Two points:

1) you're absolutely right the Cubs aren't getting Machado in trade under any circumstance. Close the book.

2) The Orioles are not going to get near ready pitching back for Machado. The entire league knows that they have to trade him or simply get a draft pick so they have zero leverage. Frankly they had zero leverage in the offseason when they turned down several offers. They'll get a couple of near ready position player prospects or they'll get low level pitching that's a bit of a gamble. Frankly I think they're so stupid that they won't trade him at all because no one will meet their asking.

I don't really agree with this. I mean to an extent I agree to the second part. But if they actually want Machado they can get him. You'd have to trade likely some pieces off the current team to do it but it's not that implausible a scenario which is why the teams reportedly talked in the first place.

 

[Parade_Rain]

He could be. But with this crappy weather I am not going to read into any hitters or pitchers at this point. Just too crappy for pitchers to grip right and add to that the crappiness of the weather for hitters. It's a crap shoot. I know, I said crap a lot, but honestly, winter was nicer relatively speaking than this spring so far.

This post was full of crap.

 

[CSF77]

Weather isn't the reason IMO you should get hyped on Baez's start. The reason I'm fairly jazzed as someone who never was that jazzed before is he's hitting RHP. Not just hitting but destroying. He's hitting .313/.405/.906 for an absurd 246 wRC+. And his walk rate and k rate are fantastic given what we think of him as(8.1%/21.6%). As a comparison, last year was easily his best year hitting RHP and he only hit .258/304/.443(85 wRC+) with 5.9%/29.3% bb/k rate.

There is a little weirdness right now with him vs LHP. He's hitting .105/.227/.263 with 13.6%/22.7% bb/k rate. I think that's entirely babip driven though as his babip is .077 and we know in the past he crushes left handed pitching. Either way, he's turning K's into walks and that's going to pay dividends.

Even if the improvement in RHP isn't entirely real, if he's an average hitter vs RHP that's a big step forward. If he's a very good hitter vs RHP then he's probably a 5+ win player.

Right now Bryant is at 1.0 WAR. Baez .7 Even if he avg's that over a whole season that is 4.2 which is 2 WAR improvement. 4 WAR honestly might be a safe bet with him right now.

 

[beckdawg]

Right now Bryant is at 1.0 WAR. Baez .7 Even if he avg's that over a whole season that is 4.2 which is 2 WAR improvement. 4 WAR honestly might be a safe bet with him right now.

Baez also has a .077 BABIP vs LHP and a .212 BABIP overall right now. If this is really a break out vs RHP for Baez I don't think he's in the Bryant/Rizzo 140+ wRC+ level but he could easily be in the 130 range. For the sake of argument I'll call it 125. What's a 125 wRC+ 2B look like? Brian Dozier. He was worth exactly 5 fWAR last year and he's no where near as good with his glove.

Whether or not that's a safe bet was never the point. I wouldn't take the over on .300/.400/.500 on Baez but if you were to tell me based on what we've seen thus far with regard to his hitting vs RHP that he would be something like .280-.290/.360-.370/.500-.550 I could buy that. I mean that's probably best case scenario or close to it but his improvement vs RHP is that good. Assuming his prowess vs LHP comes back and that .077 BABIP is a total fluke he's extremely difficult to pitch to. He has monster power potential obviously. He makes good contact when he does connect(.327 career BABIP). The way you got him out in the past was he A) wouldn't walk and B) would swing at a lot of bad shit. But he's currently sitting at a 10.2%/22.0% bb/k rate which is fantastic for a guy who's career rates are 5.3%/29.0%. If that has changed which it appears may be the case then you got a guy who is going to hit for probably 20-25 points higher average(.295 range) and have a on base of roughly 40-50 point higher(.365 range).

 

[CSF77]

Baez also has a .077 BABIP vs LHP and a .212 BABIP overall right now. If this is really a break out vs RHP for Baez I don't think he's in the Bryant/Rizzo 140+ wRC+ level but he could easily be in the 130 range. For the sake of argument I'll call it 125. What's a 125 wRC+ 2B look like? Brian Dozier. He was worth exactly 5 fWAR last year and he's no where near as good with his glove.

Whether or not that's a safe bet was never the point. I wouldn't take the over on .300/.400/.500 on Baez but if you were to tell me based on what we've seen thus far with regard to his hitting vs RHP that he would be something like .280-.290/.360-.370/.500-.550 I could buy that. I mean that's probably best case scenario or close to it but his improvement vs RHP is that good. Assuming his prowess vs LHP comes back and that .077 BABIP is a total fluke he's extremely difficult to pitch to. He has monster power potential obviously. He makes good contact when he does connect(.327 career BABIP). The way you got him out in the past was he A) wouldn't walk and B) would swing at a lot of bad shit. But he's currently sitting at a 10.2%/22.0% bb/k rate which is fantastic for a guy who's career rates are 5.3%/29.0%. If that has changed which it appears may be the case then you got a guy who is going to hit for probably 20-25 points higher average(.295 range) and have a on base of roughly 40-50 point higher(.365 range).

Maintaining a .431 ISO is completely unrealistic. What I'm seeing is when he makes contact he is crushing it. BB:SO 1:2.2 so very solid ratio.

I really believe that he is waiting on a pitch to rake vs free swinging. Which leads to many off centered base hits. 2 singles/3 2B/2 3B/ 5 HR/ 6 BB.

Line Drive: 25%
GB: 30.6%
FB: 44.4% (18.8% are pop ups/31.3% have gone yard)

Pull: 44.7%/ Center: 26.3%/ Oppo: 28.9% So half of his balls in play are to left field.

44.7% of his hits are hard contact.

If I had to guess: This could be his break out season. He is doing everything right. The law of avg's will bring up his BABIP and lower his ISO but what matters is he is taking 10% walks and half of his hits are hard and not stuck in left field.

 

[Omeletpants]

WTF guys, you are talking about Javier Baez one of the most undisciplined hitters in baseball and you are now acting like he is Tony Gwynn. Dont forget he is still going to swing at 1000 sliders in the dirt over the season

 

[beckdawg]

Maintaining a .431 ISO is completely unrealistic.

Where did I suggest his ISO wouldn't come down? I mean the highest I suggested it would be is .270(.280 average minus top end .550 slugging) and frankly I wouldn't even say that is likely. But he had a .207 ISO last year. Seeing him in the .240-.250 range as a "better hitter" wouldn't be that shocking. I mean it's not like he doesn't have the bat speed to maintain that sort of power.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

WTF guys, you are talking about Javier Baez one of the most undisciplined hitters in baseball and you are now acting like he is Tony Gwynn. Dont forget he is still going to swing at 1000 sliders in the dirt over the season

Have you watched him this year? He's laying off those pitches down and away every time leading to a drastically reduced K rate all the way down to 22%. He's improving whether you notice it or not.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Funky lineup but what the hell. Can't hurt.

 

[Omeletpants]

Have you watched him this year? He's laying off those pitches down and away every time leading to a drastically reduced K rate all the way down to 22%. He's improving whether you notice it or not.

I have noticed an improvement, but a few games doesnt guarentee he has changed permanently. Well see what happens when he has more pressure on him

 

[CSF77]

I have noticed an improvement, but a few games doesnt guarentee he has changed permanently. Well see what happens when he has more pressure on him

Numbers don’t lie. He has hit to all fields and very hard. Add to it he is walking at 10%

 

[anotheridiot]

I have noticed an improvement, but a few games doesnt guarentee he has changed permanently. Well see what happens when he has more pressure on him

More pressure? Like having Bryant and Rizzo hitting behind him instead of the pitcher so he will get more strikes to swing at?

 

[Omeletpants]

Numbers don’t lie. He has hit to all fields and very hard. Add to it he is walking at 10%

Let's hope the progress continues

 

[chibears55]

Funky lineup but what the hell. Can't hurt.

Javy moving up the ladder, hitting 2nd

https://twitter.com/ESPNChiCubs/status/987008091689496576?s=19

Hopefully it helps him..
Maybe now we'll see a little more of Almora out there

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

 

[beckdawg]

Great hustle by Baez on that double stretching it to third. Not sure if they ruled that an error or just as a triple but either way great way to start for him.

 

[beckdawg]

Jesse Rogers
✔
@ESPNChiCubs
Baez up, batting 2nd today. Joe Maddon, on Baez, before the game: “The moment he starts laying off the down-and-away slider he’s Manny Ramirez. He has that kind of ability at the plate.”

Saw this quote too that was pretty interesting from Maddon.