The Cubs are going to free fall badly. We are easily going to be a top 3 pick again.
I think it's a bit early to make that assumption. The first game after the trade that were sort of screwed as it was a Shark start and they didn't have a lot of time to get anyone ready which lead to Villanueva who arguably shouldn't be on the MLB team even as a reliever getting the start. That in turn lead to an obvious loss. Next game out Arrieta goes out and does his thing but they didn't score like the cubs previous to the trade often would do. Yesterday, Jackson went out and did Jackson-y things. Today Wood went out and did Wood-y things of late and Wada threw a pretty nice game but the bullpen blew up.
If we look at the players who've made spot starts for the cubs, Beeler and Wada both have been decent. We've yet to see Hendricks and he could be good. It's entirely plausible that they might not have that much of a drop off from Shark/Hammel to whomever they replace them with especially when you consider Shark was 2-7 or whatever. The real crux of the issue is if they will finally call up Alcantara or not. If you call up Alcantara in the next few weeks, that's potentially a pretty big addition to the line up allowing Valbuena to start at 3B daily. I also don't get why Coghlan and Ruggiano aren't starting daily. Maybe they are trying laughably to build up any value Barney and Schierholtz might have. Also, getting Bonifacio back would be a plus.
You're also underestimating other teams ability to suck. The DBacks have been terrible pitching all year and they are starting to deal pieces. Colorado, Houston, Philly, Texas, Minnesota, Boston, and tampa all still could sell off pieces and get worse. The cubs have a better run differential than all of those teams. Don't get me wrong the 2nd half will be ugly but I'm not sure it's going to be the ugliest girl at the party.
