IST: Cubs @ Cards

[TC in Mississippi]

He may have passed up Scherzer

Nothing would make me happier than a Cubs pitcher winning the CY but im not sure I see it. ESPN had Lester third behind Scherzer and Jansen before today but Bleacher Report doesn't have him in the top 8. Another game or two like today though and who knows? He's been nails.

 

[beckdawg]

Can we just name the entire cubs pitching staff cy young?

72-34, 8.37 k/9 2.76 bb/9 2.92/3.78 ERA/FIP

I mean realistically speaking even adding in Hammel's numbers that drag the rest of the staff down you can still argue that collective is the best "pitcher" in the NL.

 

[anotheridiot]

Looking into the Heyward excuses, the year of the big contract does things to players. You can argue that Lester was equally disappointing last year as well. Guess that gives us something to look forward to.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Looking into the Heyward excuses, the year of the big contract does things to players. You can argue that Lester was equally disappointing last year as well. Guess that gives us something to look forward to.

Well I think that is part of it, and I do think Heyward can come back strong next year (the numbers scream outlier year), but I don't agree with the Lester comparison at all. Lester actually was better than his career averages last year and as good as he's been last year he's likely not going to get to the 5 WAR he achieved last year and both his K/9 (9.09 in 2015, 8.76 this year) and his BB/9 (2.06 in 2015 and 2.35 this year) are down a tick in 2016. Also while his ERA is much better this year, 2.40 compared to 3.34, his FIP is actually significantly higher at 3.45 compared to 2.92. It's that FIP difference that has led to the decreased WAR btw. The perception that he had a poor year in 2015 is a myth that was disproven by the numbers.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Well I think that is part of it, and I do think Heyward can come back strong next year (the numbers scream outlier year), but I don't agree with the Lester comparison at all. Lester actually was better than his career averages last year and as good as he's been last year he's likely not going to get to the 5 WAR he achieved last year and both his K/9 (9.09 in 2015, 8.76 this year) and his BB/9 (2.06 in 2015 and 2.35 this year) are down a tick in 2016. Also while his ERA is much better this year, 2.40 compared to 3.34, his FIP is actually significantly higher at 3.45 compared to 2.92. It's that FIP difference that has led to the decreased WAR btw.

The thing with Lester last year was his opening night debacle where all the fans found out he was a LHP who was a basketcase holding runners on.

 

[CSF77]

Lester leads now. 174 points. He should have 3 more starts and 20 wins is in reach for him.

 

[beckdawg]

Remember: This could potentially happen Sept. 15, in the Cubs’ 146th game of the season, which is the same number of games it took the 116-win 2001 Seattle Mariners to clinch, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Only four teams have clinched in fewer games during the division era.

Stupid most overrated team in history.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

The thing with Lester last year was his opening night debacle where all the fans found out he was a LHP who was a basketcase holding runners on.

Absolutely, and he was bad in April, but since those rocky first starts he's been exactly the pitcher the team expected him to be and since the All Star break this year he's actually been much better than that. The guy is a legit ace, we just forgot as he stood in the shadow of Arrieta.

The real point though was that the comparison was wrong. Heyward has been absolutely awful. I support him, I feel bad for the guy, and I certainly won't call him names like a certain poster here does, but it doesn't change the fact that he has a .611 OPS and a wOBA of .273 compared to career averages of .759 OPS and .335 wOBA. That's a really, really bad season and Lester's 2015 was nothing of the sort.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Stupid most overrated team in history.

The worst team in baseball. Sorry Ommy the internet is forever.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Absolutely, and he was bad in April, but since those rocky first starts he's been exactly the pitcher the team expected him to be and since the All Star break this year he's actually been much better than that. The guy is a legit ace, we just forgot as he stood in the shadow of Arrieta.

The real point though was that the comparison was wrong. Heyward has been absolutely awful. I support him, I feel bad for the guy, and I certainly won't call him names like a certain poster here does, but it doesn't change the fact that he has a .611 OPS and a wOBA of .273 compared to career averages of .759 OPS and .335 wOBA. That's a really, really bad season and Lester's 2015 was nothing of the sort.

Yes. Agreed. His loading process is terrible. If he would fix that, his hands would be where they need to be. Much different than Lester. The deal with Jon is that he can avoid throwing to 1B by keeping batters off the bases.

 

[TL1961]

Looking into the Heyward excuses, the year of the big contract does things to players. You can argue that Lester was equally disappointing last year as well. Guess that gives us something to look forward to.

Anyone calling Lester equally disappointing hasn'tvtruly looked at how many great starts he had.

And for everyone bitching anout Heywsrd, just look at the defense. The OF is no longer the clown show it typically has been. Heywsrd in RF, Fowler deeper, and it's no longer a circus, but a strength.

Need I remind anyone of last years playoffs and the OF circus?

Gone!

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Anyone calling Lester equally disappointing hasn'tvtruly looked at how many great starts he had.

And for everyone bitching anout Heywsrd, just look at the defense. The OF is no longer the clown show it typically has been. Heywsrd in RF, Fowler deeper, and it's no longer a circus, but a strength.

Need I remind anyone of last years playoffs and the OF circus?

Gone!

No, listen I get it. I'm glad he's in RF but if he had been the contact hitter he was supposed to be this offense has virtually no holes, and that's even with Schwarber missing the year. Something got messed up with his swing and his plate approach. If you look at video from last year and his time with the Braves his swing was definitely unorthodox and he didn't hit for nearly the power he should have, but he wasn't this screwed up at the plate. I absolutely believe that the wrist injury combined with his offseason work in trying to rework his swing set him on a tailspin he couldn't recover from. He was already unlearning years of what he had been doing and then his wrist hurt on top of that. Guys with his talent and work ethic don't fall of the map at 26. It just doesn't happen. His defense has helped us tremendously this season so that's helped but I am looking forward to seeing him right the ship in 2017.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I just had a horrible realization as I took a good look at the playoff schedule for the first time. My wife an I are traveling out of town on the night of game 1 of the NLDS for a house show by a singer/songwriter friend of ours which will probably conflict with the first hour or so of the game. Even worse? Our friend playing the show is a Cardinals fan. WE CANNOT PLAY THE CARDINALS IN THE NLDS!!!! :lol:

 

[beckdawg]

The thing about Heyward is that while yes he's hit horribly this season, he obviously impacts the game in other ways. And while we often talk about the randomness of a playoff series in a negative light, it works both ways. It's just as plausible that he could get hot for 15 games or whatever and be a playoff hero. Daniel Murphy hit .281/.322/.449 in the regular season last year. Obviously that's better than Heyward but the point here being he was Ted Williams in the playoffs last year.

With Heyward's speed and defense, he has the potential to impact a game probably disproportionally to any other player save for Rizzo and Bryant as they can obviously change a game with one swing often. If he makes 1-2 big defensive plays and the cubs end up winning he world series most aren't going to remember the horrible season he had. If it carries over into 2017 then sure it's a bigger deal but ultimately the cubs haven't needed him to be the player they bought this year. And if he becomes a playoff hero... like I said no one is gonna care.

 

[Omeletpants]

I call bullshit on Heyward. I have watched every Cubs game this year and have only seen i great diving play and 1 terrific throw to home plate. Outside of that I have seen nothing extra ordinary from this guy on defense.

To offset his slight impact on defense, Heyward is one of the top rally killers in MLB. When the chips are down expect a 4-3 ground out or double play. Dont know if they keep these stats but doubt any player has more ground outs to second than him. And for his size and strength it seems like it takes all of it just to get the ball 90 feet. He is the smallest big man in MLB.

Is this year an aberration? According to some MLB scouts they believe he has the worst swing in the league. He stubbornly continues to try to pull every pitch while standing a mile from the plate which only leads to more weak ass grounders. Does he learn from this? Nope, he just continues doing it cause he is Jason Fucking Heyward, superstar.

I'm betting that Theo would rescind this horrible signing if he could. Overall we are better with Scyzcr or Zoberist in RF that this clown

 

[beckdawg]

I'm betting that Theo would rescind this horrible signing if he could. Overall we are better with Scyzcr or Zoberist in RF that this clown

The irony of this is that if the cubs didn't sign Heyward they would have started a guy you hate possibly as much if not more in Soler in RF.

 

[Parade_Rain]

...
I'm betting that Theo would rescind this horrible signing if he could. Overall we are better with Scyzcr or Zoberist in RF that this clown

Who is Scyzcr and who is Zoberist, terriblespellingpants?

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I call bullshit on Heyward. I have watched every Cubs game this year and have only seen i great diving play and 1 terrific throw to home plate. Outside of that I have seen nothing extra ordinary from this guy on defense.

To offset his slight impact on defense, Heyward is one of the top rally killers in MLB. When the chips are down expect a 4-3 ground out or double play. Dont know if they keep these stats but doubt any player has more ground outs to second than him. And for his size and strength it seems like it takes all of it just to get the ball 90 feet. He is the smallest big man in MLB.

Is this year an aberration? According to some MLB scouts they believe he has the worst swing in the league. He stubbornly continues to try to pull every pitch while standing a mile from the plate which only leads to more weak ass grounders. Does he learn from this? Nope, he just continues doing it cause he is Jason Fucking Heyward, superstar.

I'm betting that Theo would rescind this horrible signing if he could. Overall we are better with Scyzcr or Zoberist in RF that this clown

Again it screams outlier year and there are logical reasons why his swing got so screwed up. It's awfully tough to make adjustments during the season and your bit about him being stubborn doesn't jive with what is known about this guy and his work ethic.

As far his defense goes he's 3rd in MLB among RF in defense behind Adam Eaton, who's so far away from everyone that it's almost silly, and Mookie Betts and Heyward is 1st in the NL well ahead of Bryce Harper who is second. Those numbers hold true with UZR, UZR150 and total defense.

Also if you think the Cubs would be the #1 team in MLB in total defense without Heyward, say substituting Soler, you're out of your mind.

 

[Omeletpants]

Again it screams outlier year and there are logical reasons why his swing got so screwed up. It's awfully tough to make adjustments during the season and your bit about him being stubborn doesn't jive with what is known about this guy and his work ethic.

As far his defense goes he's 3rd in MLB among RF in defense behind Adam Eaton, who's so far away from everyone that it's almost silly, and Mookie Betts and Heyward is 1st in the NL well ahead of Bryce Harper who is second. Those numbers hold true with UZR, UZR150 and total defense.

Again, I call bs on those defensive metrics. Having watched EVERY GAME he has not had a lot of tough balls to field. Nothing where he has had to dive into gaps, go up against the ivy, charge the ball, etc. THe Cubs infielders have such great range they get to those balls that the OFs would have to charge/dive. I havent seen the spectacular play that he is famous for

And I also dont buy the notion he hasnt had time to change his batting stroke. He has endless access to batting practice and hitting machines and coaches and psychologists yet everyone defaults to he "needs till next sprig to figure it out". The mLB scouts have it right when they say he has the worst swing in MLB. In a key playoff situation I belive a lot of people would prefer to see some of the Cubs pitchers pinch hitting for this slug in a key moment. At least they can get the ball out of the infield

 

[anotheridiot]

Again it screams outlier year and there are logical reasons why his swing got so screwed up. It's awfully tough to make adjustments during the season and your bit about him being stubborn doesn't jive with what is known about this guy and his work ethic.

As far his defense goes he's 3rd in MLB among RF in defense behind Adam Eaton, who's so far away from everyone that it's almost silly, and Mookie Betts and Heyward is 1st in the NL well ahead of Bryce Harper who is second. Those numbers hold true with UZR, UZR150 and total defense.

Also if you think the Cubs would be the #1 team in MLB in total defense without Heyward, say substituting Soler, you're out of your mind.

But the concern seems to be that he seemed to make some adjustments and started making better contact, but when he drove in those three runs he lost where he got and went back to what he had been doing.

As far as the defense, yeah, its that good, but how many plays has he gotten an assist or a catch nobody else would get to, 10? 15?