IST: Cubs @ Kansas City

[CSF77]

I'm more concerned if they start the play offs today. I believe Cole wins game 1. Jon blows 2. Kyle might step up and salvage 3. That is a huge maybe. game 4 is a loss because Q is not the guy they paid for. Cole wins game 5. series 2 Jon comes in a chokes it. Kyle is again a maybe. Game 3 is a loss now your back is against a corner because of the drop off behind Cole and your 2nd best starter is in the pen.

That is why I feel that Jon has to figure it out very soon. Him on this team changes the dynamic. Him off he is another Q and Cole took his place. And that is not going to get out of the NL. It is just a repeat.

I really din't want to get into Yu honestly. Until he is pitching live games he is not a factor.

 

[CSF77]

Here is the reality.

Post ASG:

Most have 4 starts except Cole. We won't dive into those at Texas because this is a Verlander thing IMO.

Hendricks 2-1 4.84 ERA v Avg 5 1/2 innings per start. Most strike outs with 27 3 BB. So I'm honestly optimistic here with him. ERA blows but we have seen him shrink it fast and the numbers suggest that he is due.

So I'm good with him in my core 4.

Lester: Kinda default in regardless of the production but thus far: 0-2 8.53 10 BB 12 SO avg 4.75 IP/G I think he was due for a regression. This was a flat tire...This concerns me but lets be real he puts together a solid performance he should roll out another 5 right after it. They paid for a track record and honesty this might just be a mechanical adjustment.

Montgomery: EL snubbo 1-1 2.82 ERA avg the same 5 1/2 per Kyle is. 6 BB 12 SO's He doesn't strike out guys like the others are but you really can't fault the bottom line. I can see him providing stable production if they chose to push the next guy off...

Quintana: 2-2 5.64 ERA again 5 1/2 IP per. 9 BB and 18 SO's so he is going to strike guys out. Kinda a reason to push him to the pen honestly. You know that he can strike guys out and he can go max effort.

Hamels has cheat codes installed right now...not fair..

But looking deeper. WHIP: Lester 1.89 is way off right now. Again it feels mechanical. Montgomery at 1.57. That is my concern. 29 hits off him in 22.1 IP. So he is very hittible but he has limited the damage. I like that and I don't. I like that he can pitch out of it but he created the mess in the first place. So with the steaks higher it maybe too much risk. Hendricks 1.25. Again showing marked improvement. It has more to do with his BB's vs limiting contact. So it seems like his control is there but his command maybe a area of concern. Again he is trending the right way and his tenancy is 2nd half.

Kinda how I see it right now. Yu is a key as it takes out 2 question marks. And both might be suited better in the pen anyways. Montgomery has shown that he can battle out of jams what is really nice in a leverage arm. Q just strikes guys out.

 

[TL1961]

I'm more concerned if they start the play offs today. I believe Cole wins game 1. Jon blows 2. Kyle might step up and salvage 3. That is a huge maybe. game 4 is a loss because Q is not the guy they paid for. Cole wins game 5. series 2 Jon comes in a chokes it. Kyle is again a maybe. Game 3 is a loss now your back is against a corner because of the drop off behind Cole and your 2nd best starter is in the pen.

That is why I feel that Jon has to figure it out very soon. Him on this team changes the dynamic. Him off he is another Q and Cole took his place. And that is not going to get out of the NL. It is just a repeat.

I really din't want to get into Yu honestly. Until he is pitching live games he is not a factor.

You're giving this waaaayyy too much thought.

 

[CSF77]

You're giving this waaaayyy too much thought.

No more than Beck does. Beck loves using Fangraphs data. I like using data and then try to optimize performance.

Some guys just excell better in diffrent situations. Montgomery is a strong case point here. Sure he wants to start but the data shows that he is better in higher pressure situations and starting has caused his strike outs to plummet. But looking over his last start he started using his change up in strike out counts and is seeing more success.


Look at Hendricks. 27 SO in 22 innings. Most likely his change up is really good right now. But his hits are up also. Both him and Mike are kinda mirroring each other right now. Hits are up so most likely fastball command issues. Both are using the change as a knock out. Mike has battled more. Kyle with less velocity has paid for making a mistake. But he has made less of them. Era and WHIP give that info.