IST: Cubs @ Kansas City

[TL1961]

By the way, with all these damn walks by every pitcher on our staff, can we talk about the elephant (no longer) in the room?

Montero was among the best framers in baseball, and Contreras is dead last in some rankings I have seen. When we acquired Montero, MLB analysts said not to underestimate what impact framing has. We are seeing the effects now. Contreras has a gun, but his inability to frame and get any calls at all is killing us.

That alone is not causing every walk, I know. And Chatwood's pitches weren't savable. But our catcher is killing us in this regard.

 

[bamainatlanta]

Cole Hamels allows one run, but we remind ourselves "It was the Royals".

Mike Montgomery allows zero, and we remind ourselves "It was the Royals".

Jose Quintana can't hold the Royals to less than 5 in 6.1

I had high hopes for Jose Quintana, but he is just a guy. And right now, he sucks.

Yep, Royals have zero regulars with an OPS over .800. Quintana is turning out to be a terrible trade for Theo. Can't win 'em all I guess.

 

[bamainatlanta]

By the way, with all these damn walks by every pitcher on our staff, can we talk about the elephant (no longer) in the room?

Montero was among the best framers in baseball, and Contreras is dead last in some rankings I have seen. When we acquired Montero, MLB analysts said not to underestimate what impact framing has. We are seeing the effects now. Contreras has a gun, but his inability to frame and get any calls at all is killing us.

That alone is not causing every walk, I know. And Chatwood's pitches weren't savable. But our catcher is killing us in this regard.

This is why I was hoping for a veteran C to be acquired. Caratini is just as bad as Contreras in this regard. I think a defensive C that can call a good game and frame pitches would go a long way for this team.

 

[CSF77]

The real question is:



Who goes to the pen after Darvish returns? Last 2 games has put this into question.

 

[chibears55]

Lol...
Reading stuff on here i was mentioning weeks ago

Bats
Rotation

Was told the switch was supposed to flip in the 2nd half, still waiting

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[beckdawg]

Lol...
Reading stuff on here i was mentioning weeks ago

Bats
Rotation

Was told the switch was supposed to flip in the 2nd half, still waiting

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This is what drives me nuts about you. They are in first place in the national league and you're talking about them as though they are a .500 team. They are on a 94 win pace without arguably their best starter talent wise for most of the year in Darvish, without their best hitter Bryant currently and he's only played 76 of 114 games and for good measure they are also without their closer. Sorry dude but this is the most first world problems attitude to have. If you want to say they played like shit tonight that's fine. But you constantly do this over individual games. Every team in the league does this. I mean for **** sake look at the dodgers. They were the better team last year, have added just as much if not more talent than the cubs have with the addition of Machado and Dozier and are still 3.5 games worse than the cubs.

As of tonight fangraphs gives the cubs a 50.3% chance of making their 4th straight NLCS. They prefer the Dodgers in the playoffs slightly at 55.8% to make the NLCS and 25.2% vs 35.0% to win the NLCS for the cubs vs dodgers. But if you have a 1 in 4 shot to make the world series in a given year that's a blessing.

I just fundamentally don't understand your attitude on this. It seems to me you're more concerned with being "right" whatever that means than understanding context of a season. The games Darvish and Bryant have missed alone cost them 2.5 wins based on their preseason zips projections for war not to mention the fact they are underperforming their expected win loss record of 67-47 by a game. They could fairly easily be 71-43 which is a 100 win pace. To sit here today and say they need to "flip the switch" or whatever is being so ignorant. Flip the switch to what? Being the literal best team in baseball? They are already the best team in the NL which looks to be the far superior league this year. I mean you're literally talking about the difference in their current play and the difference in a 100 win team being the team staying healthy.

The only legitimate critique I can see here is possibly you're saying you don't like their chances in the playoffs. But if that's what you're trying to say then say that because that's a totally different discussion to have than the one you seem to be trying to have about them being a poor performing team. And even if that's your case, I'm not sure it's the most compelling argument. I mean to an extent I'd agree that their current performance out of their starters leaves you uneasy going into the playoffs. But the magical thing about the playoffs is anything can happen. Who had Hendricks dominating Strasburg head to head in Washington last year? Also, it's entirely possible Darvish's next simulated game goes well and get gets back from his rehab starts more like the pitcher he was before this year. If that guy comes back he gives you a chance to win any playoff game he starts with the aforementioned Hendricks who's been dominant in the playoffs and likely Lester and at the moment probably Hamels as your other two arms both of whom have a ton of success in the playoffs.

Call me a homer or whatever if you want but I will never understand the negativity some people have. All I need is a chance to be in the playoffs. If the team gives me that the rest is gravy because I watched a 83-79 2006 st louis cardinals team win the 2006 world series vs a 95-67 tigers team after also beating the 97-65 mets, and the 88-74 padres. And as we stand tonight the cubs have a 95.7% of making the playoffs according to fangraphs and a 78.1% of winning the division.

 

[chibears55]

This is what drives me nuts about you. They are in first place in the national league and you're talking about them as though they are a .500 team. They are on a 94 win pace without arguably their best starter talent wise for most of the year in Darvish, without their best hitter Bryant currently and he's only played 76 of 114 games and for good measure they are also without their closer. Sorry dude but this is the most first world problems attitude to have. If you want to say they played like shit tonight that's fine. But you constantly do this over individual games. Every team in the league does this. I mean for **** sake look at the dodgers. They were the better team last year, have added just as much if not more talent than the cubs have with the addition of Machado and Dozier and are still 3.5 games worse than the cubs.

As of tonight fangraphs gives the cubs a 50.3% chance of making their 4th straight NLCS. They prefer the Dodgers in the playoffs slightly at 55.8% to make the NLCS and 25.2% vs 35.0% to win the NLCS for the cubs vs dodgers. But if you have a 1 in 4 shot to make the world series in a given year that's a blessing.

I just fundamentally don't understand your attitude on this. It seems to me you're more concerned with being "right" whatever that means than understanding context of a season. The games Darvish and Bryant have missed alone cost them 2.5 wins based on their preseason zips projections for war not to mention the fact they are underperforming their expected win loss record of 67-47 by a game. They could fairly easily be 71-43 which is a 100 win pace. To sit here today and say they need to "flip the switch" or whatever is being so ignorant. Flip the switch to what? Being the literal best team in baseball? They are already the best team in the NL which looks to be the far superior league this year. I mean you're literally talking about the difference in their current play and the difference in a 100 win team being the team staying healthy.

The only legitimate critique I can see here is possibly you're saying you don't like their chances in the playoffs. But if that's what you're trying to say then say that because that's a totally different discussion to have than the one you seem to be trying to have about them being a poor performing team. And even if that's your case, I'm not sure it's the most compelling argument. I mean to an extent I'd agree that their current performance out of their starters leaves you uneasy going into the playoffs. But the magical thing about the playoffs is anything can happen. Who had Hendricks dominating Strasburg head to head in Washington last year? Also, it's entirely possible Darvish's next simulated game goes well and get gets back from his rehab starts more like the pitcher he was before this year. If that guy comes back he gives you a chance to win any playoff game he starts with the aforementioned Hendricks who's been dominant in the playoffs and likely Lester and at the moment probably Hamels as your other two arms both of whom have a ton of success in the playoffs.

Call me a homer or whatever if you want but I will never understand the negativity some people have. All I need is a chance to be in the playoffs. If the team gives me that the rest is gravy because I watched a 83-79 2006 st louis cardinals team win the 2006 world series vs a 95-67 tigers team after also beating the 97-65 mets, and the 88-74 padres. And as we stand tonight the cubs have a 95.7% of making the playoffs according to fangraphs and a 78.1% of winning the division.

In first place hanging by a thread because Milwaukee is 11-8 in 2nd half.
They are playing like a .500 team,
Cubs are 11-10 in 2nd half , just went 4-3 against 2 of the worse teams in baseball ..

The rotation gonna make or break them the rest of the year..
They have a tough schedule coming up at the end of this month and through September

Their going to need to do a whole lot better then the way they played since the break to stay in 1st and maybe even the WC spot





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[beckdawg]

In first place hanging by a thread because Milwaukee is 11-8 in 2nd half.
They are playing like a .500 team,
Cubs are 11-10 in 2nd half , just went 4-3 against 2 of the worse teams in baseball ..

The rotation gonna make or break them the rest of the year..
They have a tough schedule coming up at the end of this month and through September

Their going to need to do a whole lot better then the way they played since the break to stay in 1st and maybe even the WC spot





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They're 8-3 vs Milwaukee head to head this year. That's going to be far more indicative of their finish than Milwaukee playing 11-8 baseball. if they take 5 of the remaining 8 games they go a game up on their lead they already have. As for going 4-3 vs two bad teams would it matter if they'd gone 5-2? That's the problem with looking at two series. One game is the difference between winning 57% of your games and winning 71%. And contrary to popular belief there are no easy wins in baseball. The literal worst team in MLB history was the 2003 tigers who still won 43 games our roughly 30% of their games. In other words, vs the worst team imaginable you'd still expect to lose 2 games out of a 7 game set. So going 4-3 isn't that unimaginable. Would it be better had they won? Sure but you do this all the time like these games are gimmies and they never are.

As for their remaining schedule it's not that difficult. They have 7 games(3 home 4 away) vs 58-56(.509) washington, 8 games(5 home 3 away) vs 66-51(.564) Milwaukee, 8 games(4 each) vs 59-56 Pit(.513), 2 away vs 47-68(.409) detroit, 7(all home) vs 50-65(.436) cincy, 3(home) vs the 47-65(.420) Mets, 1 away game vs 62-49(.559) Atlanta, 3(away) vs 64-50(.561) philly, 3 away vs 64-52(.552) Arizona, 3 away(sorta) vs the 41-73(.360) Sox, and 3 home vs 60-55(.522) STL.

In total that means they have 25 home 23 away though 3 of those again are in the same city vs the sox and given it's the 21st of september may as well be a home game given where the sox are record wise and the fact they struggle to draw attendance anyways. Of those 48 games, I'm not sweating the series vs Washington, detroit, Pitt, STL, Sox, NYM, and cincy. That leaves ARI, PHI, MIL, and one game vs atlanta which is 15 games of the remaining 48 of which 10 are away though again like with the sox MIL isn't exactly enemy territory. For the sake of argument let's say they go 8-7 over those 15. The 75th percentile(ie best realistic case) of fangraphs projection for MIL is them winning 91 games. If that's the number your shooting for the cubs need 26 more wins which if they go 8-7 vs those good teams comes down to needing to go 18-15 over the remaining 33 games vs the bad/average teams of which 20 are at home(23 if you count the sox) and 13 are away(10 if you don't count the sox).

Like I said people are freaking out over relatively little here. Is it that difficult for them to realistically go 26-22(.542) over the remaining 48 games? It would be them playing worse than their current record(.579) and that would also have to coincide with MIL going at least 26-19(.578 their current win% is .564). I was already to run down their remaining schedule like i just did with the cubs but having looked at it I don't really need to. Simply put it literally should come down to the 8 games(5 of which are at wrigley) vs the cubs. If the cubs go 5-3 or 6-2 in those game they would have to win something crazy like 24-13(.649) or 23-14(.622). And that's with the cubs playing either .500 ball or 1 game over .500 ball in the rest of the series.

 

[beckdawg]

With that all being said, I think joe is going to need to fiddle with the rotation order. The long and short of it is, whoever pitches 14th vs MIL is slated to pitch 4th as well vs MIL assuming no messing with anything. Whoever pitches the 15th is slated to pitch the 5th and the 10th as well. The issue is right now Monty is slated to pitch the 14th and Q is slated to pitch the 15th. Darvish returning probably sept 1+ complicates this a bit. Best combo I could come up with with the least amount of fuckery would be to pitch Hendricks and Lester on 4 days rest on the 14th and 15th. You then throw Monty the 16th as he's next in order. Hamels could then throw on normal rest the 17th because of the day off and Q the 18th. If you then insert Darvish into Monty's spot in the rotation which would happen to throw Sept 1 when rosters expand you end up with your #4/5 pitcher in this case Hamels and Q/Monty only throwing 2 of the 8 games with Lester throwing 3, Hendricks 2 and Darvish one.

It also lines up fairly well with the rest of games/end of the season as if you continue on normal rest Q/Monty as the #5 would pitch the final game of the regular season with Hendricks being fully rested on Oct 1, Lester being 4 days and Darvish 3. NL wild card would be Oct 2 with Hendricks/Lester on full rest. First game of NLDS is the 4th with the entire likely playoff rotation of Darvish, Hendricks, Lester and Hamels on full rest. The only other games you'd be counting on Monty for are Aug 16 @PIT, Aug 22 @DET, Aug 27 home NYM and then his rotation slot becomes Darvish. Q's rotation slot lines up with Aug 18 @pit, aug 24 home cin, aug 29 home NYM. The games they would be fighting for as the #5 lineup Sept 3 @MIL, Sept 8 @wash Sept 14th home cin Sept 19th @ ARI, Sept 25 home pit and the 30th home STL.

It's kind of regrettable that ARI would be one of those starts but the rest IMO lines up pretty great. Monty pitching in 2 pitchers parks(PIT/DET) is a good set up and home vs a crummy mets team should in theory be a good match up. Like wise Q @pit and home vs crummy cin/nym are good match ups. Not a ton you can do about the 1 MIL game the way the schedule shapes up. The home games vs CIN/PIT/STL should also be as good as you can realistically hope for. So, really if you go with this rotation order you are only really counting on them to throw 2 hard games out of the remaining 48.

Obviously I'm assuming here Darvish stays healthy on his return but you look at the top 4 guys and they throw like this Hendricks WAS, MIL, @PIT, CIN, @ATL, @MIL, @WAS, CIN, @SOX, PIT Lester WAS, MIL, @DET, CIN, @PHI, @MIL, MIL, CIN, @SOX, PIT Darvish @PHI, @WAS, MIL, @ARI, @SOX, STL and Hamels WAS, @PIT, CIN, NYM, @PHI, @WAS, MIL, @ARI, PIT, STL. That's the overwhelming majority of the "good" teams your best talent pitchers would face.

 

[anotheridiot]

I'm just not buying the Bote hype. He's hot and it's a small sample size. He's got 2400 minor league PAs and he's never shown anything close to what he's doing now. His extensive minor league record clearly projects him as a backup/utility infielder. It just doesn't make sense him coming up and transforming into this great player.

Sounds like a guy named Donalson that had no future with this team.

 

[anotheridiot]

By the way, with all these damn walks by every pitcher on our staff, can we talk about the elephant (no longer) in the room?

Montero was among the best framers in baseball, and Contreras is dead last in some rankings I have seen. When we acquired Montero, MLB analysts said not to underestimate what impact framing has. We are seeing the effects now. Contreras has a gun, but his inability to frame and get any calls at all is killing us.

That alone is not causing every walk, I know. And Chatwood's pitches weren't savable. But our catcher is killing us in this regard.

Oh come on. Montero got the big contract for his offense and his hot wife. Defense had nothing to do with him. The way he "handled pitchers" was patting them on the ass the right way. He is 35 and out of baseball, if he was that good he would some teams backup or bullpen coach.

 

[chibears55]

With that all being said, I think joe is going to need to fiddle with the rotation order. The long and short of it is, whoever pitches 14th vs MIL is slated to pitch 4th as well vs MIL assuming no messing with anything. Whoever pitches the 15th is slated to pitch the 5th and the 10th as well. The issue is right now Monty is slated to pitch the 14th and Q is slated to pitch the 15th. Darvish returning probably sept 1+ complicates this a bit. Best combo I could come up with with the least amount of fuckery would be to pitch Hendricks and Lester on 4 days rest on the 14th and 15th. You then throw Monty the 16th as he's next in order. Hamels could then throw on normal rest the 17th because of the day off and Q the 18th. If you then insert Darvish into Monty's spot in the rotation which would happen to throw Sept 1 when rosters expand you end up with your #4/5 pitcher in this case Hamels and Q/Monty only throwing 2 of the 8 games with Lester throwing 3, Hendricks 2 and Darvish one.

It also lines up fairly well with the rest of games/end of the season as if you continue on normal rest Q/Monty as the #5 would pitch the final game of the regular season with Hendricks being fully rested on Oct 1, Lester being 4 days and Darvish 3. NL wild card would be Oct 2 with Hendricks/Lester on full rest. First game of NLDS is the 4th with the entire likely playoff rotation of Darvish, Hendricks, Lester and Hamels on full rest. The only other games you'd be counting on Monty for are Aug 16 @PIT, Aug 22 @DET, Aug 27 home NYM and then his rotation slot becomes Darvish. Q's rotation slot lines up with Aug 18 @pit, aug 24 home cin, aug 29 home NYM. The games they would be fighting for as the #5 lineup Sept 3 @MIL, Sept 8 @wash Sept 14th home cin Sept 19th @ ARI, Sept 25 home pit and the 30th home STL.

It's kind of regrettable that ARI would be one of those starts but the rest IMO lines up pretty great. Monty pitching in 2 pitchers parks(PIT/DET) is a good set up and home vs a crummy mets team should in theory be a good match up. Like wise Q @pit and home vs crummy cin/nym are good match ups. Not a ton you can do about the 1 MIL game the way the schedule shapes up. The home games vs CIN/PIT/STL should also be as good as you can realistically hope for. So, really if you go with this rotation order you are only really counting on them to throw 2 hard games out of the remaining 48.

Obviously I'm assuming here Darvish stays healthy on his return but you look at the top 4 guys and they throw like this Hendricks WAS, MIL, @PIT, CIN, @ATL, @MIL, @WAS, CIN, @SOX, PIT Lester WAS, MIL, @DET, CIN, @PHI, @MIL, MIL, CIN, @SOX, PIT Darvish @PHI, @WAS, MIL, @ARI, @SOX, STL and Hamels WAS, @PIT, CIN, NYM, @PHI, @WAS, MIL, @ARI, PIT, STL. That's the overwhelming majority of the "good" teams your best talent pitchers would face.

Good thing they won those games against Brewers in April, that the difference right now...
I remember people saying games in April dont matter...
7-1 in April
1-2 in June


Like i said the SP is going to be the key going forward...

Lester needs to find his groove again
Last 7 starts
35 IP 6.81 ERA 1.85 WHIP

Hendricks gotten a little better his last 7 starts..
Be good to see him go a little deeper into games like the last one..
He only gone into the 6th twice in the last 7 starts

Quintana been a major disappointment overall, he looks good in 1 start but sucks ass between them..
His last 7 starts
39 IP 4.31 ERA 1.36 WHIP

Montgomery looked really good his last 2 starts, hope he can continue that..

Hamels been great his 2 starts..


I don't count on Darvish til he actually pitching in games and is ready to return..
Let not forget also, that he wasn't doing that great before he got hurt, so expectations of what he does IF he returns should be low...


So, bottom line here is they need Lester to return to his 1st half form
Hendricks and Quintana to quit sucking ass
Monty and Hamels to stay the course

Big ask for a rotation that hasn't been consistently stable all year to turn it around in final month plus when they play 11 of final 16 series against teams that are currently in playoff picture or within 5 games of a playoff spot...
It not going to be easy

Plus they need the ones that been struggling with the bats to wake up ..

So, look ..
Id love to sit here and say everything going great with this team and their just gonna cruise into the playoffs because hell they've done it the last 3 years and their just gonna do it again because Joe Maddon a genius and computers say they will...
But
I go by what i see, i go by how they played the last month

SP is uneven, 2 guys good , 2 guys bad and 1 in between...
Offense being carried by 2 - 3 guys now
Even Maddon made some questionable moves

Theyve been a .500 team the last month still looking for positive momentum..
Like i said, if they dont get it together in the next week or two, its not going to get easier with the schedule..

So, sorry if you dont like me saying it the way it is but sometimes we need to put the cubbies blue glasses down and see what actually happening on the field, and not on the computers...


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[fatbeard]

Sounds like a guy named Donalson that had no future with this team.

Are you familiar with the phrase, "The exception that proves the rule"?

 

[CSF77]

Good thing they won those games against Brewers in April, that the difference right now...
I remember people saying games in April dont matter...
7-1 in April
1-2 in June


Like i said the SP is going to be the key going forward...

Lester needs to find his groove again
Last 7 starts
35 IP 6.81 ERA 1.85 WHIP

Hendricks gotten a little better his last 7 starts..
Be good to see him go a little deeper into games like the last one..
He only gone into the 6th twice in the last 7 starts

Quintana been a major disappointment overall, he looks good in 1 start but sucks ass between them..
His last 7 starts
39 IP 4.31 ERA 1.36 WHIP

Montgomery looked really good his last 2 starts, hope he can continue that..

Hamels been great his 2 starts..


I don't count on Darvish til he actually pitching in games and is ready to return..
Let not forget also, that he wasn't doing that great before he got hurt, so expectations of what he does IF he returns should be low...


So, bottom line here is they need Lester to return to his 1st half form
Hendricks and Quintana to quit sucking ass
Monty and Hamels to stay the course

Big ask for a rotation that hasn't been consistently stable all year to turn it around in final month plus when they play 11 of final 16 series against teams that are currently in playoff picture or within 5 games of a playoff spot...
It not going to be easy

Plus they need the ones that been struggling with the bats to wake up ..

So, look ..
Id love to sit here and say everything going great with this team and their just gonna cruise into the playoffs because hell they've done it the last 3 years and their just gonna do it again because Joe Maddon a genius and computers say they will...
But
I go by what i see, i go by how they played the last month

SP is uneven, 2 guys good , 2 guys bad and 1 in between...
Offense being carried by 2 - 3 guys now
Even Maddon made some questionable moves

Theyve been a .500 team the last month still looking for positive momentum..
Like i said, if they dont get it together in the next week or two, its not going to get easier with the schedule..

So, sorry if you dont like me saying it the way it is but sometimes we need to put the cubbies blue glasses down and see what actually happening on the field, and not on the computers...


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Montgomery changed his grip on he curve but it is his change up that produced his strike outs.

I’m pretty sure that he is taking after Cole and Cole’s pitch approach. There is a reason why Montgomery bounced back right at that time.

All said and done Q IMO is the bubble guy right now. But they may give Jon a rotation day off first. He really has looked bad post all star and they need him on if they go anywhere.

Honestly Cole took the reins from Jon as staff ace and Jon needs to step up again.

 

[chibears55]

Montgomery changed his grip on he curve but it is his change up that produced his strike outs.

I’m pretty sure that he is taking after Cole and Cole’s pitch approach. There is a reason why Montgomery bounced back right at that time.

All said and done Q IMO is the bubble guy right now. But they may give Jon a rotation day off first. He really has looked bad post all star and they need him on if they go anywhere.

Honestly Cole took the reins from Jon as staff ace and Jon needs to step up again.

All im saying...

They need those starters to step it up big time in these final weeks

Helps that the Brewers are playing pretty much .500 ball themselves since the break..
Like i said, the cubs are lucky enough to be in a bad division

Brewers lost in 9th today to Padres on a GS homer..lol

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[SilenceS]

All im saying...

They need those starters to step it up big time in these final weeks

Helps that the Brewers are playing pretty much .500 ball themselves since the break..
Like i said, the cubs are lucky enough to be in a bad division

Brewers lost in 9th today to Padres on a GS homer..lol

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They arent in a bad division. You keep saying that, but its not true. lol

 

[chibears55]

They arent in a bad division. You keep saying that, but its not true. lol

Lol..
Maybe i should clarify myself ..

Their in a division that no team has taken off and outside the cubs and brewers have been mediocre at best most of the year...

Reds sucked all year, had a nice run and now suck again...

Pirates and Cardinals had some good runs but are basically hovering just over .500

Brewers have had opportunities upon opportunities to get back ahead and pull away from the cubs but like the cubs this 2nd half, have been playing
.500 ball

The division may not be terrible bad based on record, and having 4 teams over .500..
But
They are mediocre bad, considering noone gone off and had a big run to pull ahead

Cubs aside..
.560 ball and below for division and league not exactly great either record wise...

Last year NL had 4 teams over .560
Dodgers 642 Nationals 599
Dbacks 574 Cubs 568

So far this year
Cubs .579 Phillies .561

So yea, with the injuries and the problems with the SP and occasional inconsistencies of the offense with multiple players in slumps here and there over the season..
Their a bit lucky this year that no team from division or league has taken off yet record wise and theyve been able to beat these teams with the problems they've had



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[Parade_Rain]

They arent in a bad division. You keep saying that, but its not true. lol

The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

 

[fatbeard]

The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

They're treading water while still maintaining a 1-2 game lead in the division, everybody panic!

 

[beckdawg]

The amount of straw men in this topic is giving me hay fever. I'm out boys.