IST: Cubs @ Miami

[beckdawg]

Weird game, but we won!

Weird indeed. The cubs gave up more runs than hits(2 with 5 walks).

 

[fatbeard]

Slumping Cubs in danger of falling 25 games back above .500 before All-Star break, more at 11.

 

[CSF77]

Almora being sent down.....Contreras playing 3rd while Baez sits......more great insight on the forum tonight.

Love seeing Contreras start off so well. But if they play him at 3rd and sit Baez, someone should have their head examined.

And while Contreras has been a real nice addition - and I hope to see a LOT of him for a long time - let's not forget that Baez has done very well this month while getting more playing time.

Ideally you want Contreras catching everyone. But that won't happen yet. They have been using 1B and LF has been in flux. It seems the spot if he can handle it.

Almora has not shown the ability to take walks. 2BB 7 SO. so around a 3.5:1 SO:BB ratio. 2BB in 39 AB's is off. That will dictate if he becomes a over rated 4th OF or a GG CF over his career.

 

[Omeletpants]

I like the idea of being able to move players around. While Contresas can play 1st base he doesnt move well there and is a bit clumsy, plus he isnt that tall. No issues yet but......

Almora doesnt create walks and he is not developed as a hitter. Unless something changes he will sink to the .225 level. With Heyward it's going to be tough to have two substandard hitters in the OF. And god forbid Soler comes back and you will have poor OF offense

 

[DanTown]

Almora probably will get sent down when Soler + LaStella + Fowler come back because there won't be enough regular AB's for him and the Cubs won't just have him here as a 4th or 5th OF.

Wilson is basically having a Schwarber like season where the plan was to play him for a few weeks to build experience but he's been so good that he probably sticks in a way that the team didn't plan on.

 

[CSF77]

I like the idea of being able to move players around. While Contresas can play 1st base he doesnt move well there and is a bit clumsy, plus he isnt that tall. No issues yet but......

Almora doesnt create walks and he is not developed as a hitter. Unless something changes he will sink to the .225 level. With Heyward it's going to be tough to have to substandard hitters in the OF. And god forbid Soler comes back and you will have poor OF offense

It seems he is more of a free swinger. I believe young players fall into that trap while developing to attract attention. But that is a finer part of development he needs to go through. He has every thing else going on. But if he can't prove that he can take walks as well as he can hit teams will just never give him hittable pitches. Let him get himself out with "pitcher" pitches that become easy outs because he doesn't lay off and force walks.

 

[Omeletpants]

It seems he is more of a free swinger. I believe young players fall into that trap while developing to attract attention. But that is a finer part of development he needs to go through. He has every thing else going on. But if he can't prove that he can take walks as well as he can hit teams will just never give him hittable pitches. Let him get himself out with "pitcher" pitches that become easy outs because he doesn't lay off and force walks.

At first I thought Almora had some power, but the more I watch him I'm seeing a guy with 3-5 home runs per year. Because of his speed he will get a good amount of doubles but they will be roll to the wall gappers rather than balls off the wall. Anyone think he can develop reasonable amount of power?

 

[CSF77]

Almora probably will get sent down when Soler + LaStella + Fowler come back because there won't be enough regular AB's for him and the Cubs won't just have him here as a 4th or 5th OF.

Wilson is basically having a Schwarber like season where the plan was to play him for a few weeks to build experience but he's been so good that he probably sticks in a way that the team didn't plan on.

Well he was pretty much a unknown that was exposed to rule V and no one cared. Last year it came together for him. Right now he looks very mature and is looking like a complete player.

I have a feeling teams will start to pitch around him with the line up weakened.

 

[CSF77]

At first I thought Almora had some power, but the more I watch him I'm seeing a guy with 3-5 home runs per year. Because of his speed he will get a good amount of doubles but they will be roll to the wall gappers rather than balls off the wall. Anyone think he can develop reasonable amount of power?

His speed is league avg. he has one of the best first steps and runs near perfect routes. As a hitter he drives the ball when he gets his pitch. The problem is pitchers are not just tossing batting practice out there.

Right now his value is what Barney gave in his GG year. He is good if the team is a full strength but as it stands now they can't afford to have plays not adding to run production. Sadly they would be better off with Szczur every day

 

[beckdawg]

So, as of today the cubs worst starter ERA wise is Lackey at 2.78. Can we take a moment to appreciate how stupid that is? All 5 of the cubs starters are in the top 16 or so guys(Lackey was 15 coming into today but Hendricks jumped him and others in theory might have too if they started). Chris Sale has a 2.90 ERA.

 

[beckdawg]

At first I thought Almora had some power, but the more I watch him I'm seeing a guy with 3-5 home runs per year. Because of his speed he will get a good amount of doubles but they will be roll to the wall gappers rather than balls off the wall. Anyone think he can develop reasonable amount of power?

He's been given a 40-50 power grade by most scouts which should equate to 10-15 HRs. He's not going to hit many HRs but he does hit for doubles. He has 94 doubles and 16 triples in 1623 PAs. Most full time players see around 650 PAs a year so if you were to break that down proportionally that is like 38 doubles per "season" in the minors. He's only hit 23 HRs in that time which breaks down to around 10 HRs per "season" but it's worth noting he's only 22 and probably will add muscle.

Not sure if you define that as "reasonable power" but it's average to slightly below average. For a CF it might actually be above average since they typically aren't great hitters.

 

[Omeletpants]

He's been given a 40-50 power grade by most scouts which should equate to 10-15 HRs. He's not going to hit many HRs but he does hit for doubles. He has 94 doubles and 16 triples in 1623 PAs. Most full time players see around 650 PAs a year so if you were to break that down proportionally that is like 38 doubles per "season" in the minors. He's only hit 23 HRs in that time which breaks down to around 10 HRs per "season" but it's worth noting he's only 22 and probably will add muscle.

Not sure if you define that as "reasonable power" but it's average to slightly below average. For a CF it might actually be above average since they typically aren't great hitters.

You may be right. I look at the guy and see a lot of balls that barely make it to the outfield. I havent seen a single hit that was anywhere near off the wall and we know he doesnt have a HR

I still think it's a function of how far he stands away from the plate. He hits a lot of balls off the end of the bat and when he does hit it hard there is no leverage so it's just a sharp single.

 

[beckdawg]

You may be right. I look at the guy and see a lot of balls that barely make it to the outfield. I havent seen a single hit that was anywhere near off the wall and we know he doesnt have a HR

I still think it's a function of how far he stands away from the plate. He hits a lot of balls off the end of the bat and when he does hit it hard there is no leverage so it's just a sharp single.

I say this often around here but I'm not a hitting/pitching coach so I can't speak to the mechanical aspect of the game. Stats are more my area of interest. However, if I had to guess I think a lot of his issue is just being young. You might be right initially that he may only be say a 5-7ish HR guy his first few years but from 27-32 hitters usually grow a bit. Ultimately, homers matter little to me personally. I think extra base hits are more a telling sign which is why i mention his doubles/triples. While you generally see more doubles with more HRs, you will often have guys who have gap power but don't hit many HRs. Heyward is a good example of that. I imagine there's something to be said about launch angle on swings there but I haven't really looked into it.

All that being said, a league average non-pitcher hits .258/.325/.421 this year so you're talking about an ISO of .164. Almora hit .292/.325/.420 for an ISO of .128 in the minors. So, he's a bit off where you'd want but he's not exactly Juan Pierre(.066 career iso) out there or even Darwin Barney(.093 career iso). That ISO would put him in the range of guys like Austin Jackson, Howie Kendrick, Josh Harrison, Brandon Phillips and Jose Reyes over the past 5 years. He's not going to be a huge impact bat but assuming he hits for average with a low k rate he's almost assuredly a decent starter with what he gives you defensively.

 

[fatbeard]

So, as of today the cubs worst starter ERA wise is Lackey at 2.78. Can we take a moment to appreciate how stupid that is? All 5 of the cubs starters are in the top 16 or so guys(Lackey was 15 coming into today but Hendricks jumped him and others in theory might have too if they started). Chris Sale has a 2.90 ERA.

That's a good example of why ERA is a poor stat. Hendricks escaped the 1st inning without a single earned run charged to him even though he was really responsible for 3 of them.

 

[CSF77]

I tend to respect FIP more myself.

 

[Omeletpants]

All that being said, a league average non-pitcher hits .258/.325/.421 this year so you're talking about an ISO of .164. Almora hit .292/.325/.420 for an ISO of .128 in the minors. So, he's a bit off where you'd want but he's not exactly Juan Pierre(.066 career iso) out there or even Darwin Barney(.093 career iso). That ISO would put him in the range of guys like Austin Jackson, Howie Kendrick, Josh Harrison, Brandon Phillips and Jose Reyes over the past 5 years. He's not going to be a huge impact bat but assuming he hits for average with a low k rate he's almost assuredly a decent starter with what he gives you defensively.

I would be happy if he hit .258 with his defense. I'm just hoping he is not a .220 guy. Let's see what his next stint in the minors yeilds.

Also, am I wrong about my observation that he stands too far from the plate and hits everything near the end of the bat?

 

[CSF77]

So, as of today the cubs worst starter ERA wise is Lackey at 2.78. Can we take a moment to appreciate how stupid that is? All 5 of the cubs starters are in the top 16 or so guys(Lackey was 15 coming into today but Hendricks jumped him and others in theory might have too if they started). Chris Sale has a 2.90 ERA.

2,7,10,14,15. That is their ERA rankings

 

[CSF77]

I would be happy if he hit .258 with his defense. I'm just hoping he is not a .220 guy. Let's see what his next stint in the minors yeilds.

Also, am I wrong about my observation that he stands too far from the plate and hits everything near the end of the bat?

I'm not a hitting instructor. But it seems he would do fine if he steps into outside pitches and drives them to right while able to turn on inside stuff

 

[TL1961]

Almora probably will get sent down when Soler + LaStella + Fowler come back because there won't be enough regular AB's for him and the Cubs won't just have him here as a 4th or 5th OF.

Wilson is basically having a Schwarber like season where the plan was to play him for a few weeks to build experience but he's been so good that he probably sticks in a way that the team didn't plan on.

The difference, obviously, is their ability to catch.

Schwarber hurts you badly behind the plate. Contreras, while his framing needs work, is an asset behind the plate. That difference can not be overstated.

So many people call for a guy with a good bat and bad D to be stuck in the lineup. But as we see this year, improved D leads to wins.

Sure, the Cubs have scored a lot. But it is the D - Bryant-Fowller-Heyward in the OF, for example. The IF with reliable defenders at all 4 spots, which simply has not been the case in past years. We had Valbuena's bat in the lineup, while he played 3rd base as if on skates. We have multiple options there this year who are all better. Etc, etc.

Bats are nice. But holes in your D will kill you.

The Cards are scoring as much as the Cubs, and hovered around .500 all year - because their D is uncharacteristically bad. (And fans look immediately to pitchers as the culprit when often it comes down to the range of the players behind them. Bad D isn't all about unearned runs.)

Contreras can catch for me any day. But 3rd and LF? Hell no!

 

[cubsmann]

So the Cubs snap their 4 game skid. Everyone take a breath...Now Contreras has to stay in the lineup. We got very unlucky with some terrible no strike calls, a couple of walks, an error and a grand slam. One hit, four runs. That is crazy. Did anyone even notice that the Marlins finished the game with only 2 hits? The bullpen looks strong again. Rondon slams the door in the 8th and 9th. Hendricks was actually very good. Lots of first pitch strikes and a nasty changeup again. I love how our starting pitching keeps bailing us out of games. The team looked good. Baez should have gotten us an insurance run. We have to be getting the runner in with a run on 3rd and less than 2 outs. This has been a problem lately. I love Baez but he seems to strike out a lot with guys on base. Cubs win. That's all that matters. 48-24 is a pretty awesome record. Cardinals lose to the Mariners on a walk off HR, so the Cubs are back to a double digit lead in the NL Central.