IST: Cubs @ Reds

[Diehardfan]

Brewers are under .500 vs divisional teams but beating up on other 2 divisions..

Pirates are beating up teams in division and AL central but under .500 outside..

Cardinals are beating up teams in division but .500 against others

Cubs are .500 team all around

Brewers Pirates and Cardinals aren't that good outside the division..

Cubs start beating these teams inside division, they'll run away with division

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Ok, but why does that make it a mediocre division? The AL Central is a mediocre division.

 

[TL1961]

Baez sitting is OK by me.

Almora may be sitting due to the injury concern, but it seems almost inevitable that he would sit after 3 hits.

Hope Q shows us more than in recent starts. I have high expectations for him and think he can be the difference maker in that rotation, but thus far he has not shown that.

 

[Diehardfan]

Baez sitting is OK by me.

Almora may be sitting due to the injury concern, but it seems almost inevitable that he would sit after 3 hits.

Hope Q shows us more than in recent starts. I have high expectations for him and think he can be the difference maker in that rotation, but thus far he has not shown that.

Yeah, exactly. What in the world happens to a guy who looks like he had overcome a lot of his demons? All of a sudden he's back to looking like his decision to swing the bat comes well before the pitch is even thrown.

 

[chibears55]

Ok, but why does that make it a mediocre division? The AL Central is a mediocre division.

It an average division of teams that aren't exceptional or over the top..

Brewers Cardinals and Pirates on paper aren't teams that supposed to contend and outside of beating up on the Reds or each other their not going to win many games..
It'll surprise me if at the end of it all , that only 2 of these teams will be a bit above 500..

Cubs should be doing to all these teams what they've done to the Brewers, yet their having trouble beating the damn reds

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[beckdawg]

Looking at the stats, I think I have an inkling of one of the issues with RISP. Simply put, I want to see Maddon bat Schwarber #2. Right now, by wRC+ Schwarber is the worst regular with RISP. He's hitting .182/.341/.273. You'd have to dig farther into the stats but my assumption here is he's being to passive. The OBP is great considering he's hitting .182. On the flip side of that, Maddon has put Bryant in the #2 hole most of the time. He's the cubs best hitter with RISP other than Bote but he obviously didn't see enough opps. Bryant is hitting .321/.512/.464 with RISP. Other good cubs hitters with RISP are Rizzo(.275/.333/.425), La Stella(.389/.450/.444) Happ(.200/.385/.400) and Almora(.292/.370/.333). Given happ's average maybe you put him in the below average group but the OBP and SLG are decent enough.

The remaining cubs Heyward(.269/.355/.269), Zobrist(.250/.357/.250), Contreras(.209/.292/.372), Russell(.216/.333/.297) and Baez(.216/.293/.412) haven't been very good. Heyward and Zobrist haven't been *that* bad but they just have no power numbers. What's also odd is how bad Baez has been despite his high RBI totals.

I get the logic behind batting Bryant #2. But I think that's being some what ignorant of the cubs issues. I think it's worth questioning whether a chunk of the issues with RISP the cubs have suffered is because their best hitter is often not hitting with guys on base. The past 2 years they really haven't had super strong lead off options. I think if you put Schwarber in the 2 hole it does 2 things. One he's the best walk rate bat on the team. That basically guarantees him a high OBP. And hitting in front of Bryant you're not going to want to walk him so that should lead to him seeing better pitches. And that helps Bryant because Schwarber should get on base for him. With Rizzo after Bryant you have a good chance of having guys on for those 2.

I'm not saying that solves all their issues but I think that would help them score more runs. Ultimately, if Contreras Russell and Baez aren't hitting well with RISP and you have a high OBP team those guys are going to end up stranding a bunch of guys. If you look at PAs with RISP, Baez is #1 with 58, Contreras is #2 with 48, Rizzo is #3 with 45, Russell also has 45, Bryant is #5 with 41 as does Schwarber, Heyward is at 31, Zobrist is at 28 and Almora and Happ are at 27 and 26 respectively. So, if you're wondering why they never score with RISP, there's your problem.

 

[beckdawg]

Also re: previous post, the cubs got hot when they had Almora/Baez 1/2 moving Bryant back a batter. The thought at the time seemed to be that it was more about Almora/Baez being hot but in retrospect I think it might have been Bryant moving down that was as big an issue.

 

[Diehardfan]

It an average division of teams that aren't exceptional or over the top..

Brewers Cardinals and Pirates on paper aren't teams that supposed to contend and outside of beating up on the Reds or each other their not going to win many games..
It'll surprise me if at the end of it all , that only 2 of these teams will be a bit above 500..

Cubs should be doing to all these teams what they've done to the Brewers, yet their having trouble beating the damn reds

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That's opinion....but what's not an opinion is the fact that no one can predict baseball. I.E. In March, where would you have put the Cubs at this moment if you knew for a fact that they'd be 7-1 vs Milw? You can't assume a win against anyone just because the Cubs have a more talented team. It's why they play the games. You can't write off anyone these days....shit teams will jump up and bite you.

 

[beckdawg]

So random bit of stats i stumbled upon while waiting on the game to start.... Deion Sanders as a 24 year old with Atlanta hit .304/.346/.495(136 wRC+). He get over shadowed by Bo Jackson but had he focused on baseball rather than football Deion probably could have been one hell of a CF.

 

[Omeletpants]

Almora on base 3 times sits..

You are Almora's agent

 

[TL1961]

Yeah, exactly. What in the world happens to a guy who looks like he had overcome a lot of his demons? All of a sudden he's back to looking like his decision to swing the bat comes well before the pitch is even thrown.

I am Javy's biggest fan, so when I say it's OK by me, I mean for a game or two. He has regressed from April to May, but he has been better each season, and he adds a lot of value in ways other than just the bat. I am most disappointed with all the errors, which are from being too aggressive sometimes, and possibly too nonchalant on the routine plays.

That is true for the whole team - they have the ability to be the best defensive team in baseball. But they are too nonchalant. I like that they are loose, but I wish they were a little more focused. I like that the manager doesn't have a stick up his ass (like Matheny, LaRussa, etc.), but it would help to have one or two assholes on the team who will drive the others.

Anyway....back to Baez....I think he's trying to do too much after the hot start. Hopefully he finds his way back to the more patient approach soon. He laid off a lot of pitches this year that he always swung at in the past. That bodes well.

 

[TL1961]

You are Almora's agent

And you are Happ's.

 

[Omeletpants]

And you are Happ's.

Not buying it

 

[CSF77]

Man Q sucks....

 

[TL1961]

Trying to beat Ommy - Woot! Woot!

They just pointed out he has been on base 10 times in this series. Two games and two PA's so far in Game 3. Pretty, pretty, pretty good.

 

[TL1961]

That ball by Heyward was hit "where they ain't", but it hung up a long time. Felt like that should have been caught, but instead, it provides a huge cushion.

 

[beckdawg]

Game 2 sort of illustrates why i think people over react a bit to the cubs issues. Their ability to hit with RISP is certainly an issue but they are putting so many guys into scoring position that when they get those hits they crush teams.

 

[Omeletpants]

Game 2 sort of illustrates why i think people over react a bit to the cubs issues. Their ability to hit with RISP is certainly an issue but they are putting so many guys into scoring position that when they get those hits they crush teams.

Good teams?

 

[TL1961]

Game 2 sort of illustrates why i think people over react a bit to the cubs issues. Their ability to hit with RISP is certainly an issue but they are putting so many guys into scoring position that when they get those hits they crush teams.

RISP can come and go, and is hard to control.

My concern is more of the fundamental "move 'em over, get 'em in" attitude. They don't adjust to situations to maximize the chances of scoring. They have big innings, but they don't have a lot of innings where they get one run. Almora had a couple innings where he created runs like that a couple weeks ago. Get on, move over on a fly ball, score on a ground out. That really adds up. I just want to see a little more of that approach. The type of baseball Ryne Sandberg discussed in his HOF speech, when he bemoaned the demise of that type of ball.

All in all, very happy with the team, and its performance in recent years. I just don't want to see them take things for granted, and wind up behind the Brewers, who are clearly not as talented.

 

[beckdawg]

Good teams?

There's 3 types of teams IMO: bad teams, inconsistent teams, and good teams. Bad teams don't have the talent to get people on base/out. Inconsistent teams are just good teams that aren't consistent. And good teams are just inconsistent teams who consistently score runners. The cubs have beat good teams. They took 7 of 8 from MIL. Last time i looked they were winning close to 59% of their games vs teams with a win% over .550. Problem is they are inconsistent and will have games like game 1 where they should win but don't plate enough runs and lose by 1 run or something to that effect.

 

[beckdawg]

RISP can come and go, and is hard to control.

My concern is more of the fundamental "move 'em over, get 'em in" attitude. They don't adjust to situations to maximize the chances of scoring. They have big innings, but they don't have a lot of innings where they get one run. Almora had a couple innings where he created runs like that a couple weeks ago. Get on, move over on a fly ball, score on a ground out. That really adds up. I just want to see a little more of that approach. The type of baseball Ryne Sandberg discussed in his HOF speech, when he bemoaned the demise of that type of ball.

All in all, very happy with the team, and its performance in recent years. I just don't want to see them take things for granted, and wind up behind the Brewers, who are clearly not as talented.

I'd like to see the team run more. There may be a stats reason why Maddon doesn't run more but I feel like if you're a team who doesn't run much teams will get lulled into a sleep and you can take a freebie base now and then.