Point here being if you just look at the math of things it tells you all you need to know...
Beck, right here you hit the disconnect between those fans who can accept SABRE Metrics, and those who cannot. And I'm not talking about accepting it in the sense of it guiding your manager in match-ups or lineup construction; I mean it in terms of estimating the threat from your competition.
If you reject the fact that the numbers -- which do in fact predict future performance quite well, given a big enough sample size -- could possibly do that, then you're always on the hook when the outliers pop up over a series of games. It's the ultimate human expression of that irrational point of view, "What have you done for me lately?" And specifically, you are much more easily terrified by the competition having a good run, because you have no faith in the numbers that all state your competition is running through an outlier period that not only they can't maintain, but no team in history has been able to maintain.
I've seen a lot of people knee-jerk react on these boards whenever the concept comes up of using the numbers to predict the future, with the classic "the games are played on the field and not on paper". True, but the overall trends of what the teams will do, unless they make a ton of changes, is based on what they have already done. Think of Hitler screaming at his generals that the late-war Allied victories were all a result of the cowardice of the German soldiers; here was a man who so disbelieved the stark numbers -- lack of troops, lack of equipment, lack of air support, lack of ammunition and petrol -- that he had no recourse but to blame the people involved. He couldn't credit the Allies with exceptional skill and spirit, so he was compelled to lay it on the cowardice and inability of his own men.
He ended up dead by his own hand. That was his only way of escaping the numbers. In denial until the moment he pulled the trigger.
Now, last I checked, the Cubs aren't in such a place that their most recent moves could be compared to a last-ditch hail-Mary kind of offensive as the Bulge. Nothing is happening here that would lead one to believe the war is lost. And yet, people who cannot accept that numbers are predictive have the poison ampule to their lips and the gun to their own heads, in despair that our troops have just given up, and all hope is lost.
And in terms of teams having streaks late in the year being predictive of their ultimate successes, ISTR an Indians team that, a year ago, was putting together a much better streak than the Cards are managing. And we all recall their spectacular run to the 2017 World Series, right? Same as with that Mariners team that set the modern record for win %, right?
Oh, yeah -- they crashed and burned, didn't they? Without preventing other teams from going past them and actually competing for the big trophy.
So, please listen to what I hear Beck saying -- one good hot six-week run does not a champion, or even contender, make. Such a hot streak can carry you through a post-season series or two, but not when there are 40-some games left to be played in the year.
Now watch, Carpenter will end up making himself up some salsa that has e-coli in it, will go down for two weeks, and the Cards, without their spark plug, will fade away and all the guys who can't accept the numbers as predictive will insist the Cubs could never have won the division had Carpenter not gotten ill. And thus literally dodge the bullet of accepting the truth, that teams who overachieve for a time will *always* regress to the mean, eventually.
I also find it fascinating that all the people who have been screaming Wolf -- er, I mean Brewers -- all year are now totally discounting Milwaukee, and can only see the Cards as a threat. Geez, guys, the Brewers have had a much better overall year, led the division for a good long while, something the Cardinals have not managed. And yet, the Cards are now "obviously" the team that will shoot us in the ass as they pass us by?
Puh-leeze. Gimme a fucking break.
