IST: Cubs @ Tigers

[chibears55]

First 2 hitters drive the ball to the outfield but caught and Rizzo decides with 2 outs to bunt..lol

Part of why their struggling offensively

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[beckdawg]

We can just disagree here..
Not sure how it cherry picking..

You cant use April May and June as a barometer for how they're playing the 3rd week of August and for the last 15 to 30 games..
Theyve been playing mediocre ball since the break..

We've seen teams look really bad the first couple months and turn it around the 2nd half to make the playoffs, were they considered bad in September because of how they played in the beginning? No

Im not saying the Cubs are a bad team, their far from it..
They just haven't been able to click on all cylinders the last 30+ games..
Can they turn it around absolutely

All im saying is back on July 15th they were 17 games over 500, 31 games later their 18 games over 500..
That tells us they haven't been playing good baseball and winning more then they were expected..

So, they need to play much better then the 500 baseball theyve played over the last 30 games over the final 40, otherwise the teams that got closer over the last 30 games are or could pass them up..

Do i think it will happen .. probably not because i think their a better team then theyve been , but i would like to start seeing more of a pulse in them sooner rather then later


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The flaw in your logic is you're assuming current play is how you should project going forward. That's recency bias. Also I wouldn't call playing .500 ball "playing poorly" especially when you factor in the injuries to Morrow, Bryant and now Russell. Let's just humor the argument that they can't play .500 ball going forward. If they did they'd win 90 games. If you look at the 75th percentile win projections on fangraphs for MIL and STL they are 90 and 89. MIL to reach 90 wins would need to go 19-14(.576) and STL to reach 90 wins would need to go 20-15(.571). That's 26 and 21 points respectively in win% higher than their seasonal win rates.

That's why I don't get the hysteria some have about playing .500 ball over a tough patch injury wise. And keep in mind these are likely best and worse case scenarios for the respective teams. And it's also just to win the division. They still would have 2 wild card spots. If you want to argue you can't do that playing in the playoffs then by all means make that argument. I would agree with that. But this handwringing about them being in any real jeopardy of missing the playoffs to me is silly. Fangraphs has their playoff odds at 95.9%

 

[TL1961]

That's the problem. You're not taking their record as what it is. You're cherry picking smaller samples and saying they are playing poorly now thus they are an inferior team than the team that's played the other 3 months of the season. My point in showing the 4 one run games is that you can easily look like a worse team than you are just by losing close games. If the cubs win those games instead we're not even having this conversation.... ok knowing how downer some on here are we'd probably be having this same conversation if the cubs were on a 115 win pace but i digress.

What frustrates me is as mentioned the lack of perspective. 2 weeks ago all this same talk was oh the cubs are never going to fend of MIL playing the way they are. Since the start of August they are 7-11. Now all the talk is oh how are they going to fend off the cardinals. The same cardinal team that prior to August 1st was 54-53. Sure they are hot going 16-4 in August but the point here is they aren't going to continue to win at that rate. No team ever does. Neither of those two teams added an MVP caliber player. they are just playing well/poorly comparable to their season record. But as I've said seemingly thousands of times now that's baseball. There is no team that is consistently great. The M's that set the win record didn't even make it to the world series because they started playing bad baseball at the wrong time. The 2016 cubs were terrible before the all star break....etc.

As frustrating as it is to lose when you get good pitching, I find it encouraging. More so than winning 7-6.

Pitch well and we’ll be ok.

 

[chibears55]

The flaw in your logic is you're assuming current play is how you should project going forward. That's recency bias. Also I wouldn't call playing .500 ball "playing poorly" especially when you factor in the injuries to Morrow, Bryant and now Russell. Let's just humor the argument that they can't play .500 ball going forward. If they did they'd win 90 games. If you look at the 75th percentile win projections on fangraphs for MIL and STL they are 90 and 89. MIL to reach 90 wins would need to go 19-14(.576) and STL to reach 90 wins would need to go 20-15(.571). That's 26 and 21 points respectively in win% higher than their seasonal win rates.

That's why I don't get the hysteria some have about playing .500 ball over a tough patch injury wise. And keep in mind these are likely best and worse case scenarios for the respective teams. And it's also just to win the division. They still would have 2 wild card spots. If you want to argue you can't do that playing in the playoffs then by all means make that argument. I would agree with that. But this handwringing about them being in any real jeopardy of missing the playoffs to me is silly. Fangraphs has their playoff odds at 95.9%

Cause were not talking about a handful to 10 games, were talking about 31 games right now..
That not a small sample size of games, its almost 1/4 of a season (9 games shy).

Bullpen hasnt missed Morrow, they more then stepped up ..

Ok Bryant, but ill counter with that the rest of the lineup should be good enough to overcome without him in the lineup and score runs...
Plus it not like he by himself made this team as some of you like to call it "potent"..
Put the blame on where it belongs, there are guys just not doing their jobs..

So, you cant really say losing Bryant and Morrow are the reasons they've played 500 ball..

They have more then enough good ballplayers on this team to overcome them ..
The bullpen has, the offense hasn't


Playing 500 ball the last 31 games has allowed teams like the Cardinals and other playoff potential teams get closer to the Cubs..
Cardinals went from 7-8 back to 2 now
And all the other teams that were farther behind are all now 3 to 5 back..

That how playing 500 ball has hurt them..

So, were not gonna be on the same page here..
We'll just agree to disagree



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[TL1961]

Loopy is getting his K’s early.

 

[chibears55]

And the struggle continues through 3...

Gotta be frustrating and super tough on a pitcher, thinking you have to be perfect and shutem out every inning..
2 runs may doom their chances of winning


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[chibears55]

They got Murphy for his bat to help this lineup but damn i can already see the red flag in his defense..lol

I love me some Almora and especially his defense but im wondering when Bryant returns if we'll see games with Murphy at 3B and Bryant in RF with Heyward in CF..

Less ground for Murphy to cover at 3B, plus you can get Zobrist bat in there at 2B

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[TL1961]

Murphy is no 3rd baseman. He is a DH.

 

[beckdawg]

Ok Bryant, but ill counter with that the rest of the lineup should be good enough to overcome without him in the lineup and score runs...

Maddon has said Russell has been playing hurt as well which hurt his hitting but his defense was enough to keep him in the line up. Either way the reason they have struggled as of late is hitting and if you're missing a healthy Russell bat and Bryant from the line up it matters. It's not the only reason obviously but it all adds up.

 

[chibears55]

If you had Bote breaking the streak, youre a winner..

2 run homer

Now pour it on

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[TL1961]

“The Giants win the pennant! The Giants win the pennant!”

“I don’t believe what I just saw!”

“Go crazy, folks. Go crazy!”

 

[chibears55]

Gotta hand it to Lester..

You can see him working hard trying to be perfect with every pitch and getting frustrated with the ones he misses on, thinking he can't give up any more runs

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[TL1961]

Maddon has said Russell has been playing hurt as well which hurt his hitting but his defense was enough to keep him in the line up. Either way the reason they have struggled as of late is hitting and if you're missing a healthy Russell bat and Bryant from the line up it matters. It's not the only reason obviously but it all adds up.

Russell gets a lot of flak, but is so much more valuable than most understand.

 

[TL1961]

OK, “Don’t worry. It’s Happy!” Get a fuckin’ hit.

 

[fatbeard]

Noooooooo! Thought they were gonna do it again. Would've been funny to see.

 

[jooo83]

Wtf Contreras. Inexcusable.

 

[fatbeard]

Good God, I just saw Murphy's DP turn. Could've timed it with a sun dial.

 

[TL1961]

Willy has no earthly idea how to properly play the game. Looks good while killing his team.

He is baseball’s Carmelo Anthony.

 

[TL1961]

One batter made out and the inning is over

But we will takeit!

 

[chibears55]

After all the high praises for the bullpen during the last 5 games, their not gonna blow a 3 run lead now..lol

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