IST: Cubs vs. Brewers

SilenceS

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Magic number is 31. Best record in the league. Best record since the all star break. 14-2 in their last 16. Not bad for the most over rated team ever and one of the worst teams in the league. That Kris Bryant loopy swing is killing us.
 

TL1961

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I personally think Szczur is a better MLBer than Almora. I think he has more pop potential in his bat. I'd trade Almora.

The number of runs saved by Almora over Szczur defensively would far outweigh Szczur's offensive output.

But there I go again, looking at ALL facets of the game.

I have watched the Cubs for 50 years. This team prevents runs better than any I have ever seen, and it is running away from a 100 win team from a year ago. DEFENSE wins.
 

SilenceS

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The number of runs saved by Almora over Szczur defensively would far outweigh Szczur's offensive output.

But there I go again, looking at ALL facets of the game.

I have watched the Cubs for 50 years. This team prevents runs better than any I have ever seen, and it is running away from a 100 win team from a year ago. DEFENSE wins.

I mean it depends on their offensive output, but Szczur is a pretty good defender that can play all 3 OF spots. He isnt a scrub out there.
 

CSF77

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Some players are trade bait, we just disagree as to whom. If the Yankees got Schwarber from the Cubs he would be a 150 game player

DH is a wonderful thing.
 

CSF77

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I personally think Szczur is a better MLBer than Almora. I think he has more pop potential in his bat. I'd trade Almora.

I went over the UZR/150 on them. Szczur is about at Fowler's D value. Almora is up with Heyward's in CF. His is highest in LF but he just lacks the power to pull it off.

The best situation is Schwarber/Contreras rotating in LF/C. Heyward CF, Soler RF (If they can make him play D right...Shoot, Hire Sori as he got better after being taught how to play the OF and might be able to pass along some knowledge.

Almora has little value in a deal. He has not proven he is a MLB talent yet. Right now he is a 4th OF to any team with some potential. Not really banging any gongs.

Szczur holds more value because he is hitting .300 nearly. Can lead off and play passable D. If the Cubs were the Crew I would keep him. Because they are playing for nothing and D mean little as wins are hard to come by. They need more O.

But the Cubs are not the Crew. They are winning with their pitching and league leading D. So it matters if a lower D valued player is soaking innings at a higher profile spot. You note that Heyward soaked the CF time with Szczur on a off field more than not. That is because Szczur is a decent corner OF. Lacks the power but is a solid player there if needed.

And yes Fowler is passable at best. But for some reason it works with him. I would not want him there next year. Payroll would be better invested into the pitching staff.
 

CSF77

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But if you are looking to deal and bring in a big time SP talent. It would have to be Baez. Right now he holds the most value of any trade chip. We are talking super star type talent that plays GG level with a .300 stick that can bang out 30 HR's. We haven't seen that sense a young Cabrera with Fla.
 

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But if you are looking to deal and bring in a big time SP talent. It would have to be Baez. Right now he holds the most value of any trade chip. We are talking super star type talent that plays GG level with a .300 stick that can bang out 30 HR's. We haven't seen that sense a young Cabrera with Fla.

It has to be for a young TOR on a good contract. The Cubs already gave Torres away to Yanks. Who will take over 2nd base after Zobrist leaves? Baez saves games with his glove and arm.
 

beckdawg

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Assuming the Cards keep winning at a .533 clip they would lose 20 more times. So, assuming the cubs win 11 or so games they are essentially a lock for the division. For reference, they have 43 games left.
 

CSF77

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It has to be for a young TOR on a good contract. The Cubs already gave Torres away to Yanks. Who will take over 2nd base after Zobrist leaves? Baez saves games with his glove and arm.

I wouldn't do it myself. Status Que IMO with the staff. They can retain all 5. Following year they lose 3 if nothing is done. By then they might have 1-2 via farm ready. Staff ace they could just go after via F/A.
 

Parade_Rain

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I went over the UZR/150 on them. Szczur is about at Fowler's D value. Almora is up with Heyward's in CF. His is highest in LF but he just lacks the power to pull it off.

The best situation is Schwarber/Contreras rotating in LF/C. Heyward CF, Soler RF (If they can make him play D right...Shoot, Hire Sori as he got better after being taught how to play the OF and might be able to pass along some knowledge.

Almora has little value in a deal. He has not proven he is a MLB talent yet. Right now he is a 4th OF to any team with some potential. Not really banging any gongs.

Szczur holds more value because he is hitting .300 nearly. Can lead off and play passable D. If the Cubs were the Crew I would keep him. Because they are playing for nothing and D mean little as wins are hard to come by. They need more O.

But the Cubs are not the Crew. They are winning with their pitching and league leading D. So it matters if a lower D valued player is soaking innings at a higher profile spot. You note that Heyward soaked the CF time with Szczur on a off field more than not. That is because Szczur is a decent corner OF. Lacks the power but is a solid player there if needed.

And yes Fowler is passable at best. But for some reason it works with him. I would not want him there next year. Payroll would be better invested into the pitching staff.
Szczur just had a multi-HR game. In limited action over his career, he's figured out the swing plane and improved every year. If his D is on par with Fowler's, and Fowler is gone next season, Szczur is best CF option and best leadoff option. The Cubs have one of the best team D in baseball and that's with Fowler in CF. I would be keeping Heyward in RF. Almora isn't a headliner, but he has plenty of value to be more than a throw-in in a trade.
 

TL1961

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I mean it depends on their offensive output, but Szczur is a pretty good defender that can play all 3 OF spots. He isnt a scrub out there.

Not a dcrub, but not an above average defensive CF. You extrapolate his hitting in small number ifvstarts to imply he's above average offensively, and defensiely say "he's not a scrub". High praise.

He is perfectly fine spelling someone. But for 162 games, your SS and CF need to be far better than "scrubs".
 

anotheridiot

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I went over the UZR/150 on them. Szczur is about at Fowler's D value. Almora is up with Heyward's in CF. His is highest in LF but he just lacks the power to pull it off.

The best situation is Schwarber/Contreras rotating in LF/C. Heyward CF, Soler RF (If they can make him play D right...Shoot, Hire Sori as he got better after being taught how to play the OF and might be able to pass along some knowledge.

Almora has little value in a deal. He has not proven he is a MLB talent yet. Right now he is a 4th OF to any team with some potential. Not really banging any gongs.

Szczur holds more value because he is hitting .300 nearly. Can lead off and play passable D. If the Cubs were the Crew I would keep him. Because they are playing for nothing and D mean little as wins are hard to come by. They need more O.

But the Cubs are not the Crew. They are winning with their pitching and league leading D. So it matters if a lower D valued player is soaking innings at a higher profile spot. You note that Heyward soaked the CF time with Szczur on a off field more than not. That is because Szczur is a decent corner OF. Lacks the power but is a solid player there if needed.

And yes Fowler is passable at best. But for some reason it works with him. I would not want him there next year. Payroll would be better invested into the pitching staff.

sori? thanks, but I dont want Soler hopping when he catches the ball.

I just dont understand when you hear that home run Soler hit yesterday, why you would not have a spot for him on the field. Working 0-2 counts to 3-2, with the opportunity to change the game and maim defenders every at bat.

There is a really nice rotation now, Sczcur has always been a better defender than hitter and Fowler is just playing really good defense in a small outfield. Yes, this is where it counts. Zobrist has been really good, Heyward, not so much, but you take a Soler, Sczcur, Almora, Schwarber, Contrares and any one of them played great defense with no bat this fan base would be jumping from buildings. It just goes back to making these two moves that changed the entire outlook of this team, Zobrist and Heyward and just wonder if this team would still be 30 over 500 if Baez was playing every day.
 

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Not a dcrub, but not an above average defensive CF. You extrapolate his hitting in small number ifvstarts to imply he's above average offensively, and defensiely say "he's not a scrub". High praise.

He is perfectly fine spelling someone. But for 162 games, your SS and CF need to be far better than "scrubs".

Aaron Rowand, Colby Ramus, Angel Pagan, Jacoby Ellsbury, Angel Pagan and Lorenzo Cain...last 6 WS Champion CFers. I believe the only plus defender in that group is Cain, possibly Ellsbury. Having a great defender in CF is nice but certainly not a prerequisite.
 

beckdawg

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Szczur just had a multi-HR game. In limited action over his career, he's figured out the swing plane and improved every year. If his D is on par with Fowler's, and Fowler is gone next season, Szczur is best CF option and best leadoff option. The Cubs have one of the best team D in baseball and that's with Fowler in CF. I would be keeping Heyward in RF. Almora isn't a headliner, but he has plenty of value to be more than a throw-in in a trade.

I'd be rather shocked if the cubs traded Almora. Firstly, he's a HUGE character guy. I can't seem to find the exact quote from after he was demoted but if you compare what he has said and how La Stella has reacted they are basically polar opposites. I'm paraphrasing here but he basically said he could pout or whatever but all he's interested in is winning. And up until he got hurt he was basically hitting .333/.339/.456 over the first 13 games in AAA after his demotion.

Given past interaction, I'm probably higher on Almora's bat than many here. By no means do I think he's a great hitter but his walk rate really isn't a problem if his k rate is what it has been in the minors. Across all levels over 1693 PAs you're talking about a 4.3% walk rate and a 11.7% k rate. Just as a comparison, Dee Gordon had a fantastic 2015 at 3.8%/13.9%. An in his prime Brandon Phillips was generally a 5-6% walk rate guy and a 11-12% k rate guy. Jose Altuve has been at 5.7%/10.4% for his career. And obviously there's lessor degrees of success than those 3 but the basic illustration I'm going for here is that the type of hitter Almora can be does have some offensive upside albeit not MVP caliber. The downside for Almora is he largely is at the will of BABIP because he puts balls in play 85% of the time give or take. Over his time in the minors he's been at .317 which is 14 points higher than his stint in the MLB this year. He also k'd at a 17.4% clip which hurt him but that's sort of to be expected for a rookie call up. I'm not holding my breath that Almora turns into the 7.1%/10.4% bb/k rate guy he was last year in AA but we should dismiss the possibility either. And it's not like that's the only time he's had those sort of numbers. In 2013 at 19 in A he was 6.3%/11.0%.

Regardless, I'm not even sure that matters. Everything we've seen suggest he's a fantastic defender. All the scouting reports agree and the defensive metrics basically suggest his value there is similar to Heyward. To throw up a comparison here in terms of value, let's talk Juan Lagares. He hit .242/.281/.352(76 wRC+) in his rookie year of 2013 at age 24. He was worth 3 fWAR over 121 games. In 2014, he hit .281/.321/.382(101 wRC+) and he was worth 4.0 fWAR over 116 games. Almora at age 22 mind you hit .265/.291/.422(87 wRC+) and was worth 0.7 fWAR over 34 games. So, think it's fair to suggest that given Almora has hit better than Lagares at a younger age he's a rich man's Juan Lagares in terms of value.

Now, I'm sure there's a bunch of Mets fans who don't love the idea of Lagares given his bat is below average but the guy provides value. And there's at least a some what decent chance his bat improves as he grows older. The fact he's a high character guy would lead you to believe if there's more potential in him, he's going to find it. Daniel Murphy at age 24 in his first full season with the mets hit .266/.313/.427 with a 6.8%/12.4% bb/k rate. He's obviously improved since then and he's a .295/.338/.445 career hitter.

What I see happening next year assuming Fowler is gone is a lot of rotation in the OF. Keep in mind that Jason Heyward was supposed to be the cubs every day CF this year. And also keep in mind that Schwarber was supposed to be their every day LF. Maybe they trade one of Soler/Baez for a pitcher in the offseason but consider how Maddon likely will use his OF next year. Let's assume Soler is gone just for the sake of argument. You can start Almora in CF, Heyward in RF, Schwarber in LF. You can start Heyward in CF, Schwarber in LF, Bryant in RF(Baez 3B). In fact, one might argue that configuration would actually be the cubs every day line up. If Soler is around he plays into those match ups. So on and so forth.

As such, while I can see the concern some might have with Almora's bat, he's clearly an amazing defender and all the reports are he's a big club house guy. How much his bat comes around remains to be seen but I think far to many focus purely on his bat. The average MLB CF this year is hitting .258/.324/.406. Almora hit .265/.291/.422 in his first taste of the minors which other than the OBP was better in both BA and SLG to go along with his glove and of course he was a 22 year old rookie.
 

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I have more range right now than he did in his prime.

Range factor/9 innings - 1st in 1996, 2nd in 2001. Range factor/game - 1st in 1996 and 1st in 2001. Total Zone Runs as SS - 4th in NL 2003...meaning well above average. I won't be responding to your ignorance on this topic any longer.
 

CSF77

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Szczur just had a multi-HR game. In limited action over his career, he's figured out the swing plane and improved every year. If his D is on par with Fowler's, and Fowler is gone next season, Szczur is best CF option and best leadoff option. The Cubs have one of the best team D in baseball and that's with Fowler in CF. I would be keeping Heyward in RF. Almora isn't a headliner, but he has plenty of value to be more than a throw-in in a trade.

Would you rather have Soler or Szczur playing every day? That is the question. Schwarber will be in LF most of the time and Contreras will need some time there if they retain Montero. That leaves Soler off the line up.

I feel Soler > Szczur. They still have Almora to play in bigger parks or come in late game to improve the D.

As far as leading off they have Zobrist. With Bryant, Rizzo, Schwarber, Contreras and Soler you really don't need him batting 4 any more. If anything he interrupts the power string.

Zobrist
Contreras
Rizzo
Bryant
Schwarber
Soler
Heyward
Russell

Baez and Almora used as primary subs. Team looks nasty
 

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Would you rather have Soler or Szczur playing every day? That is the question. Schwarber will be in LF most of the time and Contreras will need some time there if they retain Montero. That leaves Soler off the line up.

I feel Soler > Szczur. They still have Almora to play in bigger parks or come in late game to improve the D.

As far as leading off they have Zobrist. With Bryant, Rizzo, Schwarber, Contreras and Soler you really don't need him batting 4 any more. If anything he interrupts the power string.

Zobrist
Contreras
Rizzo
Bryant
Schwarber
Soler
Heyward
Russell

Baez and Almora used as primary subs. Team looks nasty
I'd rather have a guy who has been a solid leadoff, when given the opportunity, to be the solid leadoff. This is where the team struggled this year. When Fowler was out, they weren't nearly as good of a team.
 

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I'd be rather shocked if the cubs traded Almora. Firstly, he's a HUGE character guy. I can't seem to find the exact quote from after he was demoted but if you compare what he has said and how La Stella has reacted they are basically polar opposites. I'm paraphrasing here but he basically said he could pout or whatever but all he's interested in is winning. And up until he got hurt he was basically hitting .333/.339/.456 over the first 13 games in AAA after his demotion.

Given past interaction, I'm probably higher on Almora's bat than many here. By no means do I think he's a great hitter but his walk rate really isn't a problem if his k rate is what it has been in the minors. Across all levels over 1693 PAs you're talking about a 4.3% walk rate and a 11.7% k rate. Just as a comparison, Dee Gordon had a fantastic 2015 at 3.8%/13.9%. An in his prime Brandon Phillips was generally a 5-6% walk rate guy and a 11-12% k rate guy. Jose Altuve has been at 5.7%/10.4% for his career. And obviously there's lessor degrees of success than those 3 but the basic illustration I'm going for here is that the type of hitter Almora can be does have some offensive upside albeit not MVP caliber. The downside for Almora is he largely is at the will of BABIP because he puts balls in play 85% of the time give or take. Over his time in the minors he's been at .317 which is 14 points higher than his stint in the MLB this year. He also k'd at a 17.4% clip which hurt him but that's sort of to be expected for a rookie call up. I'm not holding my breath that Almora turns into the 7.1%/10.4% bb/k rate guy he was last year in AA but we should dismiss the possibility either. And it's not like that's the only time he's had those sort of numbers. In 2013 at 19 in A he was 6.3%/11.0%.

Regardless, I'm not even sure that matters. Everything we've seen suggest he's a fantastic defender. All the scouting reports agree and the defensive metrics basically suggest his value there is similar to Heyward. To throw up a comparison here in terms of value, let's talk Juan Lagares. He hit .242/.281/.352(76 wRC+) in his rookie year of 2013 at age 24. He was worth 3 fWAR over 121 games. In 2014, he hit .281/.321/.382(101 wRC+) and he was worth 4.0 fWAR over 116 games. Almora at age 22 mind you hit .265/.291/.422(87 wRC+) and was worth 0.7 fWAR over 34 games. So, think it's fair to suggest that given Almora has hit better than Lagares at a younger age he's a rich man's Juan Lagares in terms of value.

Now, I'm sure there's a bunch of Mets fans who don't love the idea of Lagares given his bat is below average but the guy provides value. And there's at least a some what decent chance his bat improves as he grows older. The fact he's a high character guy would lead you to believe if there's more potential in him, he's going to find it. Daniel Murphy at age 24 in his first full season with the mets hit .266/.313/.427 with a 6.8%/12.4% bb/k rate. He's obviously improved since then and he's a .295/.338/.445 career hitter.

What I see happening next year assuming Fowler is gone is a lot of rotation in the OF. Keep in mind that Jason Heyward was supposed to be the cubs every day CF this year. And also keep in mind that Schwarber was supposed to be their every day LF. Maybe they trade one of Soler/Baez for a pitcher in the offseason but consider how Maddon likely will use his OF next year. Let's assume Soler is gone just for the sake of argument. You can start Almora in CF, Heyward in RF, Schwarber in LF. You can start Heyward in CF, Schwarber in LF, Bryant in RF(Baez 3B). In fact, one might argue that configuration would actually be the cubs every day line up. If Soler is around he plays into those match ups. So on and so forth.

As such, while I can see the concern some might have with Almora's bat, he's clearly an amazing defender and all the reports are he's a big club house guy. How much his bat comes around remains to be seen but I think far to many focus purely on his bat. The average MLB CF this year is hitting .258/.324/.406. Almora hit .265/.291/.422 in his first taste of the minors which other than the OBP was better in both BA and SLG to go along with his glove and of course he was a 22 year old rookie.
You have no leadoff hitter.
 

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