IST: Cubs vs. Brewers

[Parade_Rain]

Why couldn't Zobrist lead off? 704 of his 5491 career PAs(12.8%) have come out of the lead off spot.

Why are you trying to change what has been working for the team this year?

 

[beckdawg]

Why are you trying to change what has been working for the team this year?

I'm not but the very conversation is assuming Fowler is gone. What's been working this year is Fowler batting lead off. If Fowler's gone, Zobrist would be the best candidate on the team to lead off. High on base and low strike out guy and a switch hitter. He's essentially a very similar player to Fowler save for Fowler k'ing a bit more. I really don't see why you'd bat Szczur(career .314 OBP) lead off in that case which I presume is your argument.

 

[CSF77]

Why are you trying to change what has been working for the team this year?

It wouldn't be this year anymore. Add to it they got Schwarber back. He is a major upgrade to Zobrist in that LH bat in the middle. If anything Zo has been forced into that role with Schwarber's injury.

UZR/150 shows Heyward as a plus CF. Szczur holds negative value there. As did Fowler. But the plus Fowler gives over Szczur is due to him being a SH.

At the end of the day Soler will produce more than Szczur will. Even right now with Soler gone for that much time his impact is noticed almost daily vs a 1 2 HR day when he got a CF start.

What Szczur has done this year is accumulate the 2nd most hits as a PH in MLB. That is his real value. Can come in a get a hit off of the bench when needed.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I'm not but the very conversation is assuming Fowler is gone. What's been working this year is Fowler batting lead off. If Fowler's gone, Zobrist would be the best candidate on the team to lead off. High on base and low strike out guy and a switch hitter. He's essentially a very similar player to Fowler save for Fowler k'ing a bit more. I really don't see why you'd bat Szczur(career .314 OBP) lead off in that case which I presume is your argument.

I wouldn't be looking at Szczur's career OBP. He hasn't had a lot of opportunity. OTOH, this season is .303/.352. Admittedly, I'd like to see a few more walks. And yes, I know Zobrist has lead off. I wouldn't move him there at this stage of his career.

 

[beckdawg]

Also FWIW, out of his 289 career PAs, Szczur has batted lead off 15 PAs(5%).

In terms of 2016 the breakdown is as follows

Dexter Fowler 379
Ben Zobrist 95
Tommy La Stella 24
Chris Coghlan 17
Matt Szczur 15
Javier Baez 14
Jason Heyward 12
Albert Almora 6
Addison Russell 3
Adam Warren 2
David Ross 1

I can only assume Ross, Russell, Warren and Almora were double switch PH. Either way, Zobrist is the second most used hitter out of the #1 hole.

 

[Parade_Rain]

And here's the deal...I originally mentioned Szczur, because I would rather have him than Almora. If people want someone else leading off, fine. I'm not sold on Almora and I believe, having watched Matt's growth with swing mechanics, that he is ready to be a very solid MLB player.

 

[beckdawg]

I wouldn't be looking at Szczur's career OBP. He hasn't had a lot of opportunity. OTOH, this season is .303/.352. Admittedly, I'd like to see a few more walks. And yes, I know Zobrist has lead off. I wouldn't move him there at this stage of his career.

Szczur's 2016 BABIP is .347. His career BABIP is .300. To spice this up a bit over his 2444 PA's in the minors his BABIP is .322. So, he's clearly had some "luck." I'm not trying to shit on the guy because I think he's a fine bench piece and possibly a 2nd division starter but I really wouldn't bat him lead off. I'd rather see Russell lead off than him if you're saying Zobrist isn't another choice.

Posted this before you're other replay which fair enough on someone rather than him leading off. That being said, I still think he's more of a platoon guy than an every day starter.

 

[Diehardfan]

I'd be rather shocked if the cubs traded Almora. Firstly, he's a HUGE character guy. I can't seem to find the exact quote from after he was demoted but if you compare what he has said and how La Stella has reacted they are basically polar opposites. I'm paraphrasing here but he basically said he could pout or whatever but all he's interested in is winning. And up until he got hurt he was basically hitting .333/.339/.456 over the first 13 games in AAA after his demotion.

Given past interaction, I'm probably higher on Almora's bat than many here. By no means do I think he's a great hitter but his walk rate really isn't a problem if his k rate is what it has been in the minors. Across all levels over 1693 PAs you're talking about a 4.3% walk rate and a 11.7% k rate. Just as a comparison, Dee Gordon had a fantastic 2015 at 3.8%/13.9%. An in his prime Brandon Phillips was generally a 5-6% walk rate guy and a 11-12% k rate guy. Jose Altuve has been at 5.7%/10.4% for his career. And obviously there's lessor degrees of success than those 3 but the basic illustration I'm going for here is that the type of hitter Almora can be does have some offensive upside albeit not MVP caliber. The downside for Almora is he largely is at the will of BABIP because he puts balls in play 85% of the time give or take. Over his time in the minors he's been at .317 which is 14 points higher than his stint in the MLB this year. He also k'd at a 17.4% clip which hurt him but that's sort of to be expected for a rookie call up. I'm not holding my breath that Almora turns into the 7.1%/10.4% bb/k rate guy he was last year in AA but we should dismiss the possibility either. And it's not like that's the only time he's had those sort of numbers. In 2013 at 19 in A he was 6.3%/11.0%.

Regardless, I'm not even sure that matters. Everything we've seen suggest he's a fantastic defender. All the scouting reports agree and the defensive metrics basically suggest his value there is similar to Heyward. To throw up a comparison here in terms of value, let's talk Juan Lagares. He hit .242/.281/.352(76 wRC+) in his rookie year of 2013 at age 24. He was worth 3 fWAR over 121 games. In 2014, he hit .281/.321/.382(101 wRC+) and he was worth 4.0 fWAR over 116 games. Almora at age 22 mind you hit .265/.291/.422(87 wRC+) and was worth 0.7 fWAR over 34 games. So, think it's fair to suggest that given Almora has hit better than Lagares at a younger age he's a rich man's Juan Lagares in terms of value.

Now, I'm sure there's a bunch of Mets fans who don't love the idea of Lagares given his bat is below average but the guy provides value. And there's at least a some what decent chance his bat improves as he grows older. The fact he's a high character guy would lead you to believe if there's more potential in him, he's going to find it. Daniel Murphy at age 24 in his first full season with the mets hit .266/.313/.427 with a 6.8%/12.4% bb/k rate. He's obviously improved since then and he's a .295/.338/.445 career hitter.

What I see happening next year assuming Fowler is gone is a lot of rotation in the OF. Keep in mind that Jason Heyward was supposed to be the cubs every day CF this year. And also keep in mind that Schwarber was supposed to be their every day LF. Maybe they trade one of Soler/Baez for a pitcher in the offseason but consider how Maddon likely will use his OF next year. Let's assume Soler is gone just for the sake of argument. You can start Almora in CF, Heyward in RF, Schwarber in LF. You can start Heyward in CF, Schwarber in LF, Bryant in RF(Baez 3B). In fact, one might argue that configuration would actually be the cubs every day line up. If Soler is around he plays into those match ups. So on and so forth.

As such, while I can see the concern some might have with Almora's bat, he's clearly an amazing defender and all the reports are he's a big club house guy. How much his bat comes around remains to be seen but I think far to many focus purely on his bat. The average MLB CF this year is hitting .258/.324/.406. Almora hit .265/.291/.422 in his first taste of the minors which other than the OBP was better in both BA and SLG to go along with his glove and of course he was a 22 year old rookie.

It's pretty obvious that you see more in Almora than most of us see. Numbers and metrics are interesting, but to me a guy needs to pass the eye test. You may end up being right but at the moment, I'm just not seeing it.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Szczur's 2016 BABIP is .347. His career BABIP is .300. To spice this up a bit over his 2444 PA's in the minors his BABIP is .322. So, he's clearly had some "luck." I'm not trying to shit on the guy because I think he's a fine bench piece and possibly a 2nd division starter but I really wouldn't bat him lead off. I'd rather see Russell lead off than him if you're saying Zobrist isn't another choice.

Posted this before you're other replay which fair enough on someone rather than him leading off. That being said, I still think he's more of a platoon guy than an every day starter.

So I just said his swing mechanics have changed (hes finally swining up and more rotationally) and you're still bringing up career numbers and MiLB numbers.

 

[Parade_Rain]

It's pretty obvious that you see more in Almora than most of us see. Numbers and metrics are interesting, but to me a guy needs to pass the eye test. You may end up being right but at the moment, I'm just not seeing it.

If a player's initials are AA, you know beckdawg is going to be all over that guy being untradeable.

 

[Omeletpants]

If a player's initials are AA, you know beckdawg is going to be all over that guy being untradeable.

Always trolling someone

 

[beckdawg]

It's pretty obvious that you see more in Almora than most of us see. Numbers and metrics are interesting, but to me a guy needs to pass the eye test. You may end up being right but at the moment, I'm just not seeing it.

Define the eye test. Like that's my problem with people saying things like that. Who are we comparing Almora to? If it's other CF then I don't think the argument against him holds much weight. I think everyone can agree he's probably a top 5 CF defensively given the scouting reports and what we've seen. An average MLB CF this year is hitting .258/.324/.406(95 wRC+). That's not some herculean jump from the .265/.291/.422 (87 wRC+) Almora has hit this year. He's like 7% worse in his first call up than an average MLB CF in terms of wRC+.

I'm not even trying to suggest he will ever be a great OBP guy. But I think he can pretty easily be a .275-.280 hitter with a .310-.320 OBP once he adjusts to the league. He slugged .419 in the minors and has been better than that in the majors thus far in his career. So chances are he's probably going to have more power(slightly) than a typical CF and he'll hit for better average but he'll be below average in terms of OBP.

Ultimately, I think people have a skewed opinion of what CF are in terms of bats. Those numbers include probably the best player in baseball(Trout) as well as Cespedes who's really more of a corner OF guy than a prototypical CF, and Ian Desmond who up until last year was a SS. Outside of those 3 your better CF bats are Bradley Jr., Tyler Naquin, Charlie Blackmon, Fowler, Joc Pederson, Marcell Ozuna, Rajai Davis, Cameron Maybin, Odubel Herrera, Tommy Pham..... I mean it falls off pretty quick.

 

[beckdawg]

So I just said his swing mechanics have changed (hes finally swining up and more rotationally) and you're still bringing up career numbers and MiLB numbers.

143 PAs isn't a huge sample size. I've long suggested mechanics aren't my thing. So if you're telling me they are better fine. But you're telling me to essentially believe a guy who has hit .263 thus far in in his MLB career and .281 in the minors is suddenly a .300 hitter? That's a fairly substantial jump and history tells me that that's likely to come down some over an extended time. If you want to say he's like .280/.330 going forward because of these changes then fine. I could buy that though I still want to see it over a large sample size.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Always trolling someone

Oh look. My own forum stalker, poopypants.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Define the eye test. Like that's my problem with people saying things like that. Who are we comparing Almora to? If it's other CF then I don't think the argument against him holds much weight. I think everyone can agree he's probably a top 5 CF defensively given the scouting reports and what we've seen. An average MLB CF this year is hitting .258/.324/.406(95 wRC+). That's not some herculean jump from the .265/.291/.422(87 wRC+) Almora has hit this year. He's like 7% worse in his first call up than an average MLB CF in terms of wRC+.

I'm not even trying to suggest he will ever be a great OBP guy. But I think he can pretty easily be a .275-.280 hitter with a .310-.320 OBP once he adjusts to the league. He slugged .419 in the minors and has been better than that in the majors thus far in his career. So chances are he's probably going to have more power(slightly) than a typical CF and he'll hit for better average but he'll be below average in terms of OBP.

Ultimately, I think people have a skewed opinion of what CF are in terms of bats. Those numbers include probably the best player in baseball(Trout) as well as Cespedes who's really more of a corner OF guy than a prototypical CF, and Ian Desmond who up until last year was a SS. Outside of those 3 your better CF bats are Bradley Jr., Tyler Naquin, Charlie Blackmon, Fowler, Joc Pederson, Marcell Ozuna, Rajai Davis, Cameron Maybin, Odubel Herrera, Tommy Pham..... I mean it falls off pretty quick.

.265/.291 isn't what this team's philosophy seems to be.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

Let's re-acquire Starlin Jeter so he could tag team with J-Hey to start the Never-On-Base Club.

 

[CSF77]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/imagining-the-all-world-defense-team/

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Why are you trying to change what has been working for the team this year?

Unless you believe they're going to retain Fowler, which I don't, they'll have to find another option. Theo basically said that they spent their 2017 FA money on 2016 and Fowler is going to get paid. That said I'd like them to find a way to keep him. I'm higher on Almora than a lot of y'all, watching him play defense is intoxicating, but he's clearly not going to be ready to be a full time starter in 2017.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Contreras catching Arrieta. If it goes well I'm sure they'll continue with him catching Jake which probably means Montero won't be on any playoff roster.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Unless you believe they're going to retain Fowler, which I don't, they'll have to find another option. Theo basically said that they spent their 2017 FA money on 2016 and Fowler is going to get paid. That said I'd like them to find a way to keep him. I'm higher on Almora than a lot of y'all, watching him play defense is intoxicating, but he's clearly not going to be ready to be a full time starter in 2017.

I want to keep Fowler. If they don't, I would like Szczur in CF next year. No more. No less, and I understand that other people on this site feel much differently.