IST: Cubs vs. Brewers

[SilenceS]

Not a dcrub, but not an above average defensive CF. You extrapolate his hitting in small number ifvstarts to imply he's above average offensively, and defensiely say "he's not a scrub". High praise.

He is perfectly fine spelling someone. But for 162 games, your SS and CF need to be far better than "scrubs".

Almora has to prove he can hit because he will not walk. If he doesnt hit, you are looking at a guy who could conceivably have a .230 AVG with a .250 OBP.

 

[SilenceS]

As for Szczur, I mean Im not going to say his numbers are what they will be. But, you have to take into account that he didnt become a full time baseball player until he was drafted. It takes longer for those types of players to get "it". He is also going into his prime. Make no mistake, he has been absolutely dynamite for us this year. I still think we go into next year with a platoon of Heyward and Almora/Szczur in CF. But, I also think people are just giving the job to Almora. He has a lot of flaws. You can say top defense all you want, but if he doesnt hit. He isnt going to walk and he cant steal bases and he is not even a great base runner. It also will probably come down to would you rather play Soler/Schwarber/Baez over him. At this point, yes I would.

 

[beckdawg]

.265/.291 isn't what this team's philosophy seems to be.

Not every player will fit an ideal mold. Humor me and say he's on the team as a starter. You're batting him what? 8th? NL #8 hitters this year are hitting .239/.313/.367. Would you rather have Mike Trout or Jackie Bradley? Of course. There's 11 CF this year who have 600+ innings and a 0 or better DRS(Kevin Pillar, Billy Hamilton, Lorenzo Cain, Ender Inciarte, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jackie Bradley Jr., Charlie Blackmon, Mike Trout, Dexter Fowler, Joc Pederson and Odubel Herrera). Of those, only Herrera, Blackmon, Fowler, Bradley Jr. and Trout have a wRC+ above 100. In other words, there's essentially 5 CF who play average and above defense and who bat better than league average. The point here being you don't get to pick and choose everything you want out of a CF. A lot of them are going to have warts be it they can't hit or they can't play defense.

I look at it like this, someone with Almora's defense lets you play Kyle Schwarber in the OF without killing your defense. That more than makes up for having to trade Schwarber to an AL team to DH or praying that he can still catch. Almora wont hit like Willie Mays in CF but Almora hitting .265/.291/.422 as a 22 year old really isn't that bad. He's what 15 points on his BA and say 1-2% on his walk rate away from being a useful hitter? If he just lowers his K rate to what it was in the minors he's likely covered the BA part. Drawing more walks will be his main struggle but if he figures that out and gets into the 5.5% range he'll be a league average hitter at any position let alone a weaker CF position.

I guess my beef here is I just don't get what people are expecting out of a CF. The blue Jays are a team in the wild card hunt starting a defense first CF in Kevin Pillar who's hitting .261/.292/.385. Ben Revere has taken 326 PAs for Washinton hitting .211/.258/.297. The Astros were playing Carlos Gomez for 323 PAs before cutting him and he hit .210/.272/.322. The M's are starting Leonys Martin who's hitting .241/.305/.388. There's a lot of not amazing CF on playoff caliber teams. I'd rather have Almora than any of those guys. The only real caveat I see is the potential of Heyward strictly as a CF but that obviously has it's own pros and cons.

 

[beckdawg]

But, I also think people are just giving the job to Almora. He has a lot of flaws.

Know there's lots of people talking this so this might not refer to me but I've never felt it was Almora out there ever day in 2017. Frankly, I envision him being sort of like Baez this year which is to say more of a sub who plays a lot. I can't really see them trading Baez in the offseason and with Zobrist still here, he's going to have to see a lot of time at 3B. That's just the rub of it. And with Schwarber largely being a LF that's gonna push Bryant to RF and likely Heyward to CF.

Where I like Almora though is that after say the 6th when the pitcher comes out, if you have a lead already you can double switch him in for Schwarber and give some added defense. Something like him to CF, Bryant to LF, Heyward back to RF. Heyward would probably be your "everyday" CF but I think Almora would play a lot because obviously he offers you a lot in late game situations just as Baez with his defense offers you a lot now if he isn't starting.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

As for Szczur, I mean Im not going to say his numbers are what they will be. But, you have to take into account that he didnt become a full time baseball player until he was drafted. It takes longer for those types of players to get "it". He is also going into his prime. Make no mistake, he has been absolutely dynamite for us this year. I still think we go into next year with a platoon of Heyward and Almora/Szczur in CF. But, I also think people are just giving the job to Almora. He has a lot of flaws. You can say top defense all you want, but if he doesnt hit. He isnt going to walk and he cant steal bases and he is not even a great base runner. It also will probably come down to would you rather play Soler/Schwarber/Baez over him. At this point, yes I would.

There's a lot we don't know about next year but I think one thing that's fairly certain is that there will be a deal for a TOR starter or a guy they think can become one. They still only have Hendricks and Lester under contract for 2018, unless you think they're counting on Montgomery moving to the rotation, and that can't stand going into Arrieta's walk year. Clearly either Baez or Soler will be gone and I'd guess the latter although teams will ask for the former. This could be a very different Cubs team in 2017.

 

[SilenceS]

There's a lot we don't know about next year but I think one thing that's fairly certain is that there will be a deal for a TOR starter or a guy they think can become one. They still only have Hendricks and Lester under contract for 2018, unless you think they're counting on Montgomery moving to the rotation, and that can't stand going into Arrieta's walk year. Clearly either Baez or Soler will be gone and I'd guess the latter although teams will ask for the former. This could be a very different Cubs team in 2017.

Im sure the Cubs would like TOR starter, but I dont think its a necessity. Lester is the only one being paid. They have the option to pay Arrieta. Then, look what they have done with Hammel and Hendricks. Bosio obviously knows how to mold a pitcher. He has proven it to many times now. I would assume if it is the right deal, but TOR is very fickle in this league. Look at what Price, Grienke, and Archer are doing this year compared to last year. Dallas Keuchel as well. The Cubs may continue trying to find diamonds in the rough.

 

[beckdawg]

There's a lot we don't know about next year but I think one thing that's fairly certain is that there will be a deal for a TOR starter or a guy they think can become one. They still only have Hendricks and Lester under contract for 2018, unless you think they're counting on Montgomery moving to the rotation, and that can't stand going into Arrieta's walk year. Clearly either Baez or Soler will be gone and I'd guess the latter although teams will ask for the former. This could be a very different Cubs team in 2017.

At this point, I'm wondering if they even have the ammo. I mean sure they theoretically do but this is like 3 years on now we've been talking about it. I'm not entirely sure the "TOR starter" ends up being what we think/hope it will be. Part of the reason I'm more bullish on them keeping Almora is I think strong defense can manufacture a better starter. The cubs easily have the best defense in baseball this year at 59 DRS(+12 over #2) and 49.5(+15.3 over #2). So, it really shouldn't be a huge shock to see the cubs lead the MLB in starter ERA at 2.81. I mean I love Hendricks and Hammel has pitched great but its kinda hard to see them and not attribute a lot of that to team defense.

I'm thinking they might just try to settle for a 7+ k/9 guy with 45%+ ground balls which is sort of interesting because Montgomery would fall into that category. But someone with an above average k rate and who keeps the ball on the ground would play well in theory with their team defense.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Not every player will fit an ideal mold. Humor me and say he's on the team as a starter. You're batting him what? 8th? NL #8 hitters this year are hitting .239/.313/.367. Would you rather have Mike Trout or Jackie Bradley? Of course. There's 11 CF this year who have 600+ innings and a 0 or better DRS(Kevin Pillar, Billy Hamilton, Lorenzo Cain, Ender Inciarte, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jackie Bradley Jr., Charlie Blackmon, Mike Trout, Dexter Fowler, Joc Pederson and Odubel Herrera). Of those, only Herrera, Blackmon, Fowler, Bradley Jr. and Trout have a wRC+ above 100. In other words, there's essentially 5 CF who play average and above defense and who bat better than league average. The point here being you don't get to pick and choose everything you want out of a CF. A lot of them are going to have warts be it they can't hit or they can't play defense.

I look at it like this, someone with Almora's defense lets you play Kyle Schwarber in the OF without killing your defense. That more than makes up for having to trade Schwarber to an AL team to DH or praying that he can still catch. Almora wont hit like Willie Mays in CF but Almora hitting .265/.291/.422 as a 22 year old really isn't that bad. He's what 15 points on his BA and say 1-2% on his walk rate away from being a useful hitter? If he just lowers his K rate to what it was in the minors he's likely covered the BA part. Drawing more walks will be his main struggle but if he figures that out and gets into the 5.5% range he'll be a league average hitter at any position let alone a weaker CF position.

I guess my beef here is I just don't get what people are expecting out of a CF. The blue Jays are a team in the wild card hunt starting a defense first CF in Kevin Pillar who's hitting .261/.292/.385. Ben Revere has taken 326 PAs for Washinton hitting .211/.258/.297. The Astros were playing Carlos Gomez for 323 PAs before cutting him and he hit .210/.272/.322. The M's are starting Leonys Martin who's hitting .241/.305/.388. There's a lot of not amazing CF on playoff caliber teams. I'd rather have Almora than any of those guys. The only real caveat I see is the potential of Heyward strictly as a CF but that obviously has it's own pros and cons.

Almora won't be close to that .313 OBP. He doesn't take pitches. We already have Heyward hitting .225. Why do you want to add another 8 hitter to the team?

 

[fatbeard]

Almora won't be close to that .313 OBP. He doesn't take pitches. We already have Heyward hitting .225. Why do you want to add another 8 hitter to the team?

Do you actually believe Heyward is going to remain a .225 hitter for the rest of his career?

 

[Parade_Rain]

Do you actually believe Heyward is going to remain a .225 hitter for the rest of his career?

If he doesn't lower his hands and learn how to sit in his swing, he is toast.

 

[Omeletpants]

If Heyward wasnt such an offensive anchor you could live with Almora in CF. But you cant have 2 no hit OF

 

[TC in Mississippi]

At this point, I'm wondering if they even have the ammo. I mean sure they theoretically do but this is like 3 years on now we've been talking about it. I'm not entirely sure the "TOR starter" ends up being what we think/hope it will be. Part of the reason I'm more bullish on them keeping Almora is I think strong defense can manufacture a better starter. The cubs easily have the best defense in baseball this year at 59 DRS(+12 over #2) and 49.5(+15.3 over #2). So, it really shouldn't be a huge shock to see the cubs lead the MLB in starter ERA at 2.81. I mean I love Hendricks and Hammel has pitched great but its kinda hard to see them and not attribute a lot of that to team defense.

I'm thinking they might just try to settle for a 7+ k/9 guy with 45%+ ground balls which is sort of interesting because Montgomery would fall into that category. But someone with an above average k rate and who keeps the ball on the ground would play well in theory with their team defense.

I think they have the ammo but if I'm being 100% honest with myself I agree with you and SilenceS in that they may not use it. I think Theo and company still think hitting is more important than pitching which I find a little arrogant myself but on the other hand I do trust these guys and who knows, maybe they're right. I don't understand how the Kershaw-less Dodgers are playing so well with an ERA over 5 since he went down and yet they are. I also didn't see guys like Price, Greinke, etc. wetting the bed either. A lot of this depends on what they do in the postseason too. If they don't win it this year the pressure is going to be very intense next year. On a related note is anyone getting worried about Theo still not having a contract in place after this year?

 

[beckdawg]

Almora won't be close to that .313 OBP. He doesn't take pitches.

Why are you assuming this? He hit .291/.323/.419 in the minors. BABIP, K rate and BB rate between the minors and major leagues have strong correlations. In other words, there's a good chance he'll match those in the major leagues. Now I'm not gonna say Almora will hit .290/.320 in 2017 but I see little reason why he can't do that in his prime. To use Lagares as an example again, at age 23 in AA he hit .283/.334/.389. 2 years later in the majors he hit .281/.321/.382. Additionally, you know who also doesn't take walks right now? Javier Baez. Do you know how many walks Javier Baez has? 11 in 322 PAs. Do you know what his BA/OBP is despite a 3.4% walk rate? .279/.314.

In other words, having a low walk rate isn't what is stopping Almora from having a .310-.320 OBP. It's whether or not he hits for average and how high that average is. If he hits for .280, then he's probably a .310-.320 guy. If he hits for .250 then he's probably .280-.290 guy.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

If Heyward wasnt such an offensive anchor you could live with Almora in CF. But you cant have 2 no hit OF

Right, but you seriously don't expect him to hit like this going forward do you? The numbers are clearly an outlier. I fully expect him to work on swing and get back to his career numbers or above next year.

 

[fatbeard]

If he doesn't lower his hands and learn how to sit in his swing, he is toast.

"One of these things is not like the others, one of these things just doesn't belong..."

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4940&position=OF

 

[Omeletpants]

One MLB scout said that 4-3 Heyward had the worst swing in MLB. So, yeah, kinda think he will suck for a long time

 

[Omeletpants]

Right, but you seriously don't expect him to hit like this going forward do you? The numbers are clearly an outlier. I fully expect him to work on swing and get back to his career numbers or above next year.

I hope so for the Cubs sake. To have 7 more years of 4-3 ground outs is going to make Cub fans want to rip off their dicks

 

[beckdawg]

I hope so for the Cubs sake. To have 7 more years of 4-3 ground outs is going to make Cub fans want to rip off their dicks

Doubt anyone cares if they win. Last year the royals had Sal Perez(.260/.280/.426), Omar Infante(.220/.234/.318), and Alex Rios(.255/.287/.353) all have over 400 PA's. I don't really recall them complaining too much though i do think they largely replaced Infante with Zobrist.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

One MLB scout said that 4-3 Heyward had the worst swing in MLB. So, yeah, kinda think he will suck for a long time

He has a terrible swing, especially for his frame, but it's been especially bad this year. Even he just got back to what he's done in the past he'd be putting up his career numbers and I think he can work on it this winter. I just don't believe players of his caliber drop off the map at 26.

 

[Omeletpants]

He has a terrible swing, especially for his frame, but it's been especially bad this year. Even he just got back to what he's done in the past he'd be putting up his career numbers and I think he can work on it this winter. I just don't believe players of his caliber drop off the map at 26.

I hope he improves cause I was thrilled when the Cubs got him

But he works on his swing with a hitting coach everyday. Why do we need to wait for next year for a change