IST: Cubs vs. Brewers

[TC in Mississippi]

If the Cubs traded Baez, Calendario, and another medium prospect (names aren't the important part, it's just trying to argue not your top top guys like Schwarber) for Tyson Ross and then extended him for 5/80 (buying out a year of arb so it's basically 10 million for next year then a 4X16 deal with a sixth year at 25 million/6 million team option), that deal could be huge for the Cubs and their long term hope of trying to replace Jake with a cost effective starter who has similar stuff. While Ross has essentially missed the entire year with "arm trouble" (meaning any trade is based on the idea that the Cubs scout/evaluate his health and find nothing wrong), his 2014-15 stats are incredibly impressive (number in parentheses is qualified rank)

WAR - 7.6 (21)
K/9 - 9.35 (13)
GB - 59.2% (2)
FIP - 3.11 (18)

His two biggest problems in his career are walks (3.05/9) and health (only 190+ innings and 30+ starts in 2014/15 with lots of missed time in 2012, 2016 and some missed time in 2013). If he flames out, you're not on the hook for that much long term money but if he hits, you got a quality starter at a great price for four+ years. I mean when you look at the Cubs long term defensive value (Russell at SS, Bryant at 3B, Heyward in CF/RF, Almora and Baez as potential guys off the bench up the middle, Contreras behind the plate), I just don't see the need of Chris Archer or Jose Fernandez considering their cost.

The walks for Ross are entirely too high. Not to mention the fact that his velocity has been dropping consistently as his walks are uncomfortably high. Oh and he's 29 years old. That's an option I don't see. Sonny Gray on the other hand makes a lot of sense assuming health. Jeff Sullivan was interviewed on MLB network this summer saying that Gray's raw stuff was very similar to Arrieta's and that Chris Bosio would be a perfect guy to work with him. He spoke about how his arm slot was in need of subtle tweaking much like Jake's had been but of course Gray has had a much better track record of success. He'll be 27 for the 2017 season. Now, he doesn't throw quite as hard as you'd like for a goy at the top of your rotation but his 93 average isn't a far cry from Jake's 94 but you'd have to be sure he can keep that for a few years. In any case I think you need another hard throwing right hander to go along with Lester from the left side and in a couple of years be looking for that lefty to step in.

 

[Diehardfan]

Crazy. You guys seem to be more concerned about the future. You might want to give it a rest and try to enjoy the present.

Remember the 85 Bears....won the Super Bowl in a blow out....everyone thought they'd be a yearly winner. Nope.

Not saying that will happen to this year's Cubs.....but there's no guarantee that it won't.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Crazy. You guys seem to be more concerned about the future. You might want to give it a rest and try to enjoy the present.

Remember the 85 Bears....won the Super Bowl in a blow out....everyone thought they'd be a yearly winner. Nope.

Not saying that will happen to this year's Cubs.....but there's no guarantee that it won't.

Can we get a World Series Shuffle at least?

 

[DanTown]

The walks for Ross are entirely too high. Not to mention the fact that his velocity has been dropping consistently as his walks are uncomfortably high. Oh and he's 29 years old. That's an option I don't see. Sonny Gray on the other hand makes a lot of sense assuming health. Jeff Sullivan was interviewed on MLB network this summer saying that Gray's raw stuff was very similar to Arrieta's and that Chris Bosio would be a perfect guy to work with him. He spoke about how his arm slot was in need of subtle tweaking much like Jake's had been but of course Gray has had a much better track record of success. He'll be 27 for the 2017 season. Now, he doesn't throw quite as hard as you'd like for a goy at the top of your rotation but his 93 average isn't a far cry from Jake's 94 but you'd have to be sure he can keep that for a few years. In any case I think you need another hard throwing right hander to go along with Lester from the left side and in a couple of years be looking for that lefty to step in.

Your supply of available, young, talented, cost controlled starters is incredibly small and the cost of acquiring said players is stupidly high. I would love Chris Archer but what do you think it would cost the Cubs to get Tampa to say yes to a deal? The Cubs are not going to be able to go out in trade and get a TOR arm without sacrificing a ton of talent today (i.e multiple guys like Schwarber, etc) or talent tomorrow (their top prospects like Happ, Jimmenez, etc) and would be going "all-in" essentially.

The Cubs need for a TOR arm is present in 2018 at the very earliest. If I get a guy like Gray, that means I have him in arbitration for two years then he's a FA where I have to decide if he's worth a long term deal? If the Cubs want to look at arms, they should be looking a tier or two below Gray and trying to get guys with more control and who do not have the name of Sonny Gray. The guy I wanted to get on a potential buy low before the year was Jon Gray but the Rockies are tough because they have such little need for hitters.

If I was looking for guys to buy low, they'd be Robbie Ray, Tyson Ross, Drew Smyly, Trevor Bauer, Jake Odorozzi, Lucas Sims (Braves prospect).

 

[DanTown]

Crazy. You guys seem to be more concerned about the future. You might want to give it a rest and try to enjoy the present.

Remember the 85 Bears....won the Super Bowl in a blow out....everyone thought they'd be a yearly winner. Nope.

Not saying that will happen to this year's Cubs.....but there's no guarantee that it won't.

Talking about the future of the organization does nothing to stop me from enjoying the present.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Crazy. You guys seem to be more concerned about the future. You might want to give it a rest and try to enjoy the present.

Remember the 85 Bears....won the Super Bowl in a blow out....everyone thought they'd be a yearly winner. Nope.

Not saying that will happen to this year's Cubs.....but there's no guarantee that it won't.

This is just my nature. Trust me I'm enjoying the hell out of 2016.