IST: Cubs vs. Brewers

[TC in Mississippi]

Lackey is #3-4 quality. Hendricks has put himself into the #2 category. I'm more concerned with Hammel and Montgomery. You get Noris back and a prospect you think of doing it. All you are thinking at that point is splitting up Lackey and Hammel with a lefty and a high ended arm to look forward to. If they add Soler to improve the return you do it.

I want a great pitcher. I like Norris but I want an Archer, Salazar or Fernadez (who Bruce Levine just said he thinks they'll go after hard offering an extension in hand btw). Maybe Sonny Gray if they think this was an outlier. I expect Lester to decline eventually and, I'm sorry, I'm positive Hendricks will have a regression year at some point, maybe 2017. With this much talent you don't mess around with "ifs" on you pitching staff.

 

[beckdawg]

The way Hendricks looked in the first and the way he's been on for months.... today could be special.

 

[Ari Bear]

I'd go with Lester, Hendricks and then Arrieta

Right, me too
1 Lester
2 Hendricks
3 Arrieta
4 Lackey


Sent from my Samsung S6 Edge

 

[Ari Bear]

Can anybody hit it pass 2nd base?!?!

Sent from my Samsung S6 Edge

 

[Ari Bear]

Ugh! This offense

Sent from my Samsung S6 Edge

 

[anotheridiot]

I want a great pitcher. I like Norris but I want an Archer, Salazar or Fernadez (who Bruce Levine just said he thinks they'll go after hard offering an extension in hand btw). Maybe Sonny Gray if they think this was an outlier. I expect Lester to decline eventually and, I'm sorry, I'm positive Hendricks will have a regression year at some point, maybe 2017. With this much talent you don't mess around with "ifs" on you pitching staff.

yeah, lets just replace Russell and find a new left fielder that will put both Schwarber and Soler on the bench next year.

I'd rather win this like the cubs not the yankees.

 

[beckdawg]

Shame the 2nd got a way from Hendricks. He gave up 4 of his 6 hits that inning. Still pretty good outing.

 

[Diehardfan]

Haven't been watching the whole game but it's getting pretty ridiculous when Wily Peralta, the poster boy for mediocrity, is once again a major obstacle.

 

[beckdawg]

Haven't been watching the whole game but it's getting pretty ridiculous when Wily Peralta, the poster boy for mediocrity, is once again a major obstacle.

Not like they didn't get to him. Cubs stranded 11.

 

[Mr. Cub]

Good thing we won't see the Brewers in the playoffs, they own us this year.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

yeah, lets just replace Russell and find a new left fielder that will put both Schwarber and Soler on the bench next year.

I'd rather win this like the cubs not the yankees.

What in the world does that mean?

 

[beckdawg]

I want a great pitcher. I like Norris but I want an Archer, Salazar or Fernadez (who Bruce Levine just said he thinks they'll go after hard offering an extension in hand btw). Maybe Sonny Gray if they think this was an outlier. I expect Lester to decline eventually and, I'm sorry, I'm positive Hendricks will have a regression year at some point, maybe 2017. With this much talent you don't mess around with "ifs" on you pitching staff.

I don't believe Hendricks will regress unless you're expecting this year. At this point we have enough data on the guy. He's been a 2.91/3.36 ERA/FIP guy over 433 innings. I think he's basically a back end #2 in most seasons or a pretty good #3. That being said, I mean it's pretty obvious the cubs are going to attempt to deal for a higher ceiling guy. Even if you like the guys they have you're just sitting in a situation where you have far too many young hitters to reasonably play. Candelario hit .333/.417/.542 in AAA this year and he has basically no chance to realistically make the team because he really only plays 3B. Soler likely also becomes someone you look at as a potential trade piece because all signs point to the front office just loving Schwarber(wouldn't give him up for Miller).

I mentioned this in the prospect thread awhile back but I'd like to see the cubs try to horse trade with the Braves for Max Fried. Cubs don't have a ton of LHP in their minors and he's the Braves 3rd best LHP prospect behind Kolby Allard and Newcomb. And the oldest guy in their rotation now is like 27 with something like 18 of their top 30 prospects being pitchers. Fried is older(almost 23) so he would make more sense to deal for a rebuilding team who already has young starters in the majors. Plus from their perspective, he spent this year in A ball so he's still 2-3 years away. From the cubs side, he was the 7th overall pick in 2012 and had drawn some cole hamels comparisons before having TJS. Plus as mentioned cubs need LHP.

I think something like Candelario for Fried is a decent starting point as well. They are largely waiting on 16 year old Kevin Maitan who was the #1 IFA this past year. Scouts compare him to Miggy Cabrera. They have a terrible offense this year and are running out 31 year old Adonis Garcia at 3B(.269/.312/.406). Their only 3B prospects of note are Austin Riley(A ball hitting .271/.324/.479) and Rio Ruiz(AAA hitting .271/.355/.400).

Honestly given all the pitching the braves have and given we know they were interested in Soler, you could potentially look to deal both Candelario and Soler for Fried and another worth while young starter.

 

[DanTown]

I don't believe Hendricks will regress unless you're expecting this year. At this point we have enough data on the guy. He's been a 2.91/3.36 ERA/FIP guy over 433 innings. I think he's basically a back end #2 in most seasons or a pretty good #3. That being said, I mean it's pretty obvious the cubs are going to attempt to deal for a higher ceiling guy. Even if you like the guys they have you're just sitting in a situation where you have far too many young hitters to reasonably play. Candelario hit .333/.417/.542 in AAA this year and he has basically no chance to realistically make the team because he really only plays 3B. Soler likely also becomes someone you look at as a potential trade piece because all signs point to the front office just loving Schwarber(wouldn't give him up for Miller).

I mentioned this in the prospect thread awhile back but I'd like to see the cubs try to horse trade with the Braves for Max Fried. Cubs don't have a ton of LHP in their minors and he's the Braves 3rd best LHP prospect behind Kolby Allard and Newcomb. And the oldest guy in their rotation now is like 27 with something like 18 of their top 30 prospects being pitchers. Fried is older(almost 23) so he would make more sense to deal for a rebuilding team who already has young starters in the majors. Plus from their perspective, he spent this year in A ball so he's still 2-3 years away. From the cubs side, he was the 7th overall pick in 2012 and had drawn some cole hamels comparisons before having TJS. Plus as mentioned cubs need LHP.

I think something like Candelario for Fried is a decent starting point as well. They are largely waiting on 16 year old Kevin Maitan who was the #1 IFA this past year. Scouts compare him to Miggy Cabrera. They have a terrible offense this year and are running out 31 year old Adonis Garcia at 3B(.269/.312/.406). Their only 3B prospects of note are Austin Riley(A ball hitting .271/.324/.479) and Rio Ruiz(AAA hitting .271/.355/.400).

Honestly given all the pitching the braves have and given we know they were interested in Soler, you could potentially look to deal both Candelario and Soler for Fried and another worth while young starter.

Tyson Ross is the guy who fits the most of what the Cubs want to have in a pitcher (obviously his health). Teheran fits the mold of what they want as does Smyly, Archer, and I wouldn't be shocked if they buy low in Andrew Cashner.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Tyson Ross is the guy who fits the most of what the Cubs want to have in a pitcher (obviously his health). Teheran fits the mold of what they want as does Smyly, Archer, and I wouldn't be shocked if they buy low in Andrew Cashner.

With the exception of Archer none of those guys project as an ace and of this year taught us anything is that you need two of those. Trading for and extending Fernandez appeals to me as do Danny Sanchez and Sonny Gray (provided they think this year was an outlier and that he's healthy) and of course Archer.

 

[beckdawg]

With the exception of Archer none of those guys project as an ace and of this year taught us anything is that you need two of those. Trading for and extending Fernandez appeals to me as do Danny Sanchez and Sonny Gray (provided they think this year was an outlier and that he's healthy) and of course Archer.

I am just not sure those teams are going to trade away their guys. I mean in fairness we've literally been this same place... what 4 straight offseasons? For example, if you're the Indians why would you trade Salazar? I can maybe see Fernandez but if he goes on the market I'm not sure the cubs have the prospects to fight with LA who likely wants him more.

That's why the idea of going after someone like Fried appeals to me. He's someone who's prospect status has diminished a little largely due to injury. But the tools are still there. It's almost like drafting a college pitcher in that regard. Most college pitchers are 21-22. Fried is 22 y 8 m right now. And obviously it's going to take less to acquire him than a proven player. If they could get Fried straight up for Candleario I'd probably do that deal personally. Fried is more risk but like with Vogelbach, you're dealing from a position your stacked at and he wont have much shot here for a guy who was a top 10 talent and on top of matters left handed which obviously is more difficult to find.

 

[chibears55]

I am just not sure those teams are going to trade away their guys. I mean in fairness we've literally been this same place... what 4 straight offseasons? For example, if you're the Indians why would you trade Salazar? I can maybe see Fernandez but if he goes on the market I'm not sure the cubs have the prospects to fight with LA who likely wants him more.

That's why the idea of going after someone like Fried appeals to me. He's someone who's prospect status has diminished a little largely due to injury. But the tools are still there. It's almost like drafting a college pitcher in that regard. Most college pitchers are 21-22. Fried is 22 y 8 m right now. And obviously it's going to take less to acquire him than a proven player. If they could get Fried straight up for Candleario I'd probably do that deal personally. Fried is more risk but like with Vogelbach, you're dealing from a position your stacked at and he wont have much shot here for a guy who was a top 10 talent and on top of matters left handed which obviously is more difficult to find.

I think the same thing..
Why would teams trade their young cost controlled arms if their TOR type starters..
There other ways to get good bats if that what they need
Lot harder to get TOR arms , especially young ones


Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

 

[CSF77]

I think the same thing..
Why would teams trade their young cost controlled arms if their TOR type starters..
There other ways to get good bats if that what they need
Lot harder to get TOR arms , especially young ones


Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

Cost controlled is the key. Teams tend to think trade after arb1. They get less every year they wait and they can't afford to resign

 

[chibears55]

Cost controlled is the key. Teams tend to think trade after arb1. They get less every year they wait and they can't afford to resign

They be in the same situation with a young bat..

I mean if a team can't afford a young TOR type arm, then I guess they don't expect to compete much

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

 

[DanTown]

With the exception of Archer none of those guys project as an ace and of this year taught us anything is that you need two of those. Trading for and extending Fernandez appeals to me as do Danny Sanchez and Sonny Gray (provided they think this year was an outlier and that he's healthy) and of course Archer.

What would you give up to get Archer/Fernandez over say Tyson Ross or Drew Smyly?

Of course I want Archer and those guys but the cost of acquiring of them is also drastically higher and there does become a point where that matters both in terms of capital spent via trade and capital spent via salaries.

Also, the Cubs have a historic defense and have taken pitchers from literally everywhere (Lester and Lackey were FA finds spending high dollars; Hendricks was a pre-MLB scouting find; Arrieta was a MLB find; Hammel was a low-cost FA find) and found success with that. If you believe and trust in the infrastructure of developing pitchers, you don't have to spend a ton to get quality results.

 

[DanTown]

If the Cubs traded Baez, Calendario, and another medium prospect (names aren't the important part, it's just trying to argue not your top top guys like Schwarber) for Tyson Ross and then extended him for 5/80 (buying out a year of arb so it's basically 10 million for next year then a 4X16 deal with a sixth year at 25 million/6 million team option), that deal could be huge for the Cubs and their long term hope of trying to replace Jake with a cost effective starter who has similar stuff. While Ross has essentially missed the entire year with "arm trouble" (meaning any trade is based on the idea that the Cubs scout/evaluate his health and find nothing wrong), his 2014-15 stats are incredibly impressive (number in parentheses is qualified rank)

WAR - 7.6 (21)
K/9 - 9.35 (13)
GB - 59.2% (2)
FIP - 3.11 (18)

His two biggest problems in his career are walks (3.05/9) and health (only 190+ innings and 30+ starts in 2014/15 with lots of missed time in 2012, 2016 and some missed time in 2013). If he flames out, you're not on the hook for that much long term money but if he hits, you got a quality starter at a great price for four+ years. I mean when you look at the Cubs long term defensive value (Russell at SS, Bryant at 3B, Heyward in CF/RF, Almora and Baez as potential guys off the bench up the middle, Contreras behind the plate), I just don't see the need of Chris Archer or Jose Fernandez considering their cost.