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Right now the numbers do not favor a Cub winning the award.
Correction: Your hand-selected numbers do not favor a Cub winning the award. I can hand-select data that will show the top two choices would be Cubs. There is more data looked at by voters that would imply Cubs pitchers are favored over data suggesting other pitchers are favored...
That said, three things: 1) None of us are voters. 2) Voters often have their own criteria in mind. 3) There's the 'dead guy factor' - some will want to posthumously award it to Fernandez. I don't have a problem with that if he would have won it anyway. I personally think the odds of that happening would have been low, but I could see him winning it based on that. And if that happened...no one could complain...
But who knows......