IST: Cubs vs. Cardinals

[SilenceS]

I don't think so. I realize WAR isn't the biggest factor in MVP voting but it is a factor and Bryant is 2.7 wins ahead of Murphy and 3.5 ahead of Rizzo. You could make a case for Seager but with he being a lock for RoY I'm guessing voters don't go that way. For either Murphy or Rizzo to catch Bryant they'd have to have some kind of special game that would turn even the metrics guys heads.

Bryant only hits against teams under .500

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Bryant only hits against teams under .500

Sorry I forgot that 8.3 WAR was thusly inflated.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

Bryant usually goes 0-4 three games in a row before hitting 6 homers in a single game to inflate his pedestrian stats.

 

[Ari Bear]

Well, it wouldn't be just giving him the honor. He is in the discussion prior to the tragedy.

No, not that much really. Hendricks, Scherzer and Lester. Have been most talk about most. Sometimes Kershaw but doesnt have enough innings pitched.

 

[brett05]

I don't think so. I realize WAR isn't the biggest factor in MVP voting but it is a factor and Bryant is 2.7 wins ahead of Murphy and 3.5 ahead of Rizzo. You could make a case for Seager but with he being a lock for RoY I'm guessing voters don't go that way. For either Murphy or Rizzo to catch Bryant they'd have to have some kind of special game that would turn even the metrics guys heads.

I can see that. Rizzo hasn't cemented it either. I think it's a three horse race between Rizzo, Seager with Bryant ever so slightly behind. The slump he's had hurts. The league is really a "what have you done for me lately" type. That would be Seager.

Regardless it's still a fun race.

 

[brett05]

No, not that much really. Hendricks, Scherzer and Lester. Have been most talk about most. Sometimes Kershaw but doesnt have enough innings pitched.

Yes, really he has been. The Ace on a potential playoff team with great numbers. Check it out.

 

[Ari Bear]

Yes, really he has been. The Ace on a potential playoff team with great numbers. Check it out.

No, he really hasn't. He is a Ace and has good numbers. I've only heard or seen once that I can remember and I watch and read many shows and articles. Not to mention Lester with more wins and a much better era then him. Fernandez shouldn't win it.

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[brett05]

No, he really hasn't. He is a Ace and has good numbers. I've only heard or seen once that I can remember and I watch and read many shows and articles. Not to mention Lester with more wins and a much better era then him. Fernandez shouldn't win it.

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Better fip, xfip, war, k's kk:bb yes a case is pretty solid for Jose still.

 

[Ari Bear]

Better fip, xfip, war, k's kk:bb yes a case is pretty solid for Jose still.

Wins and era are the two major factors when voting for CY. Jose had a good yr. Don't see him winning though.

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[brett05]

Wins and era are the two major factors when voting for CY. Jose had a good yr. Don't see him winning though.

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So has Jon, but Jose was better.

 

[Ari Bear]

So has Jon, but Jose was better.

Sorry Brett, I respectively just dont agree and I would put Hendricks and Scherzer ahead of him too.


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[brett05]

Sorry Brett, I respectively just dont agree and I would put Hendricks and Scherzer ahead of him too.


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I am ok with disagreeing.

Neither of us are voters

Honestly I am not sure there will be a cub in the top five
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=&age=&filter=&players=

 

[SilenceS]

I am ok with disagreeing.

Neither of us are voters

Honestly I am not sure there will be a cub in the top five
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=&age=&filter=&players=

I like how you use fWAR here when you have stated that you exclusively use bWAR that has them in top 5.

 

[brett05]

I like how you use fWAR here when you have stated that you exclusively use bWAR that has them in top 5.

i actually can go either way. I usually do it based on context and poster to be honest.

with bWAR Lester cracks the top 5 at #5 (jose has been removed 6.3)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2016-pitching-leaders.shtml

EDIT: I misread. Jose has only a 4.1 WAR knocking him out of the top ten on Baseball Reference.

 

[CSF77]

Hendricks has put himself in the race again. IP and his record is holding him back.

Max has the worst ERA of the 3 but has them in SO's and IP. Jon has by far the best record. IP should break 200. Could hit 20 wins.

I look at it as Kyle can not win unless he has 200 IP. I see that as his biggest drawback.

Scherzer has 2 things against him. ERA near 3 and his losses are high in a Div leader. You could say his SO's are the only reason why he is in the convo. The same thing can be said about Kyle. Nothing stands out outside of his ERA.

Both are incomplete in their own way. Jon on the other hand leads in 1 aspect. Record. Top 2 ERA. That alone puts him over the other 2. Then you add in IP at 200. 200 SO's. he is not doing bad there and is where you want a league TOR.

I feel it is pretty clear who should win. Voters can be strange though.

 

[brett05]

Hendricks has put himself in the race again. IP and his record is holding him back.

Max has the worst ERA of the 3 but has them in SO's and IP. Jon has by far the best record. IP should break 200. Could hit 20 wins.

I look at it as Kyle can not win unless he has 200 IP. I see that as his biggest drawback.

Scherzer has 2 things against him. ERA near 3 and his losses are high in a Div leader. You could say his SO's are the only reason why he is in the convo. The same thing can be said about Kyle. Nothing stands out outside of his ERA.

Both are incomplete in their own way. Jon on the other hand leads in 1 aspect. Record. Top 2 ERA. That alone puts him over the other 2. Then you add in IP at 200. 200 SO's. he is not doing bad there and is where you want a league TOR.

I feel it is pretty clear who should win. Voters can be strange though.

Including the argument you just made for Lester

 

[CSF77]

Including the argument you just made for Lester

Not at all. Jake proved that tradiditional stats factor. You are looking at it from a metric view point.

That is a factor in the decision. Not the deciding factor.

You are looking too much at King Felix here. He was on a bad team and won the award regardless of wins. That was fine as he was that much better than his piers. But his IP and other stats were right there also.

End of the day: Jon at 19-4. Even Kyle is at 16-8 on the same O with a better ERA going. Jake with more run support from the same group again with a worse W/L record. Rest of his stats respectable but his control has kept him from repeating.

Fernandez is a dark horse just like Cueto is. He most likely gets a few sympathy votes but I don't see him winning it.

 

[DanTown]

Blind stat test for Cy Young beyond the obvious numbers

Guy A
.191/.246/.350 against
5.13 K/BB

Guy B
.208/.263/.328 against
3.9 K/BB

Guy C
.204/.259/.317
3.86 K/BB

 

[brett05]

blind stat test for cy young beyond the obvious numbers

guy a
.191/.246/.350 against
5.13 k/bb

guy b
.208/.263/.328 against
3.9 k/bb

guy c
.204/.259/.317
3.86 k/bb

a, c, b

 

[brett05]

Not at all. Jake proved that tradiditional stats factor. You are looking at it from a metric view point.

That is a factor in the decision. Not the deciding factor.

You are looking too much at King Felix here. He was on a bad team and won the award regardless of wins. That was fine as he was that much better than his piers. But his IP and other stats were right there also.

End of the day: Jon at 19-4. Even Kyle is at 16-8 on the same O with a better ERA going. Jake with more run support from the same group again with a worse W/L record. Rest of his stats respectable but his control has kept him from repeating.

Fernandez is a dark horse just like Cueto is. He most likely gets a few sympathy votes but I don't see him winning it.

And wins with era is just a factor too. Win totals are not like they used to be and might be for the award one of the last things that get consideration.
ERA can be great, but when in light of the defense it gets graded much, much less than it should have been. Counting stats do not tell the whole story and as time goes on they tell less each season.

Jose was a top five candidate. Did his passing lock him in? It's possible and I don't think anyone should be surprised. Right now the numbers do not favor a Cub winning the award. And honestly there is no shame in that at all. The Cubs have a beastly three headed Goliath for 2016.