IST: Cubs vs. Dodgers

[chibears55]

Today was Javy Baez Day both offense and defense

Pretty cool when you can rest arguably you're best/hottest hitter in Zobrist and his replacement hits a homer , drives in 3 and plays great defensively

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[LuvMyBears]

Yeah man, this team is no joke. they can play small ball, big ball, out pitch you or just wear you down. Fun to watch.

 

[TL1961]

LA got 3 hits today. That was the most by the losing team in the series. They totaled 6 in 3 losses.

 

[CSF77]

I think some of the Cubs hitters are going to be charged with child abuse after that game.

 

[beckdawg]

As great as the Feldman for Strop/Arrieta trade was for the cubs, I think you can now make a case that Dempster for Christian Villanueva and Hendricks isn't far off given they've got 7 years of Hendricks. It's pretty hard to argue that Hendricks isn't one of the 30 best pitchers in the league based on results. I get the hesitancy people have with him but we're now 55 starts into his career and he's got a career 3.36 ERA over 324 innings and arguably is just entering his "prime." And this year he's even pitching deeper into games which was a common hit against him previously. He's averaging 6.1 IP per game this year.

It's kind of crazy to think but Hendricks being a starter probably ends up having more WAR for his 7 years with the cubs than Edwards does since he's a reliever.

 

[chibears55]

As great as the Feldman for Strop/Arrieta trade was for the cubs, I think you can now make a case that Dempster for Christian Villanueva and Hendricks isn't far off given they've got 7 years of Hendricks. It's pretty hard to argue that Hendricks isn't one of the 30 best pitchers in the league based on results. I get the hesitancy people have with him but we're now 55 starts into his career and he's got a career 3.36 ERA over 324 innings and arguably is just entering his "prime." And this year he's even pitching deeper into games which was a common hit against him previously. He's averaging 6.1 IP per game this year.

It's kind of crazy to think but Hendricks being a starter probably ends up having more WAR for his 7 years with the cubs than Edwards does since he's a reliever.

In Hendricks 55 career starts the team is 35-20, while he is 19-13 with 23 ND

I think him not being able to go 6 in his first year plus has cost him some wins even though he kept team in games, which as we see he has done a lot with them going 16-7 in his ND.

Hendricks under team control for another 4 years, im going to safely say come the 2018 season he will be no lower then their no.3 starter going into the season, and will be a strong no.3 in the rotation.

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[beckdawg]

In Hendricks 55 career starts the team is 35-20, while he is 19-13 with 23 ND

I think him not being able to go 6 in his first year plus has cost him some wins even though he kept team in games, which as we see he has done a lot with them going 16-7 in his ND.

Hendricks under team control for another 4 years, im going to safely say come the 2018 season he will be no lower then their no.3 starter going into the season, and will be a strong no.3 in the rotation.

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Yeah his shorter stints probably cost him some wins but it isn't all that uncommon to limit a pitcher to ~180 innings his first full season(see Strasburg Harvey and others). That's probably part of it too.

 

[beckdawg]

Pirates losing 0-3 in the 6th. They might be going 8.5 back.

 

[beckdawg]

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/119283/how-they-won-no-one-hits-kyle-hendricks-hard

 

[beckdawg]

Here's another fun fact. The cardinals won 100 games last year. They had a run differential of +122. The 2016 cubs after 52 games are +134.

 

[TL1961]

Arrieta 1.56; Hammel 2.09; Lester 2.29; Hendricks 2.84; Lackey 3.16

Just sayin'

 

[DanTown]

Cubs have a five game lead on the rest of the league after only 52 games. The last team to have a lead that long at the end of a season was the 2011 Phillies (6 games over Milwaukee).

 

[NCChiFan]

Arrieta 1.56; Hammel 2.09; Lester 2.29; Hendricks 2.84; Lackey 3.16

Just sayin'

Is, " Brutalicous" a word?

 

[fatbeard]

In Hendricks 55 career starts the team is 35-20, while he is 19-13 with 23 ND

I think him not being able to go 6 in his first year plus has cost him some wins even though he kept team in games, which as we see he has done a lot with them going 16-7 in his ND.

Hendricks under team control for another 4 years, im going to safely say come the 2018 season he will be no lower then their no.3 starter going into the season, and will be a strong no.3 in the rotation.

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I think "numbering" starters is overrated, especially during the regular season, and that all things being equal it's far more valuable to throw as many different pitching profiles as you can at another team in a series. Fans do far too much hand-wringing about "is Pitcher X really a No. 3 starter?", and fail to take into account how each pitcher's style reinforces the staff's success as a whole, and how the bullpen will likely be stressed or rested based on the previous day's starter. Having to face Hendricks a day after Arrieta seems like a difficult adjustment, whereas Hammel and Lackey are fairly similar pitchers. Lester, a steady innings-eater who pounds the bottom of the zone, seems like a better fit breaking up the weaker pitchers instead of following up Arrieta.

Anyone seen some good analysis on rotation setup and whether there are gains to be found there? Or is it like lineup construction, where we're only talking about 5-10 runs per season sabermetric vs. traditional?

 

[beckdawg]

I think "numbering" starters is overrated, especially during the regular season, and that all things being equal it's far more valuable to throw as many different pitching profiles as you can at another team in a series. Fans do far too much hand-wringing about "is Pitcher X really a No. 3 starter?", and fail to take into account how each pitcher's style reinforces the staff's success as a whole, and how the bullpen will likely be stressed or rested based on the previous day's starter. Having to face Hendricks a day after Arrieta seems like a difficult adjustment, whereas Hammel and Lackey are fairly similar pitchers. Lester, a steady innings-eater who pounds the bottom of the zone, seems like a better fit breaking up the weaker pitchers instead of following up Arrieta.

Anyone seen some good analysis on rotation setup and whether there are gains to be found there? Or is it like lineup construction, where we're only talking about 5-10 runs per season sabermetric vs. traditional?

That's an interesting area that I've not seen fangraphs or anyone else cover.

 

[DanTown]

I think "numbering" starters is overrated, especially during the regular season, and that all things being equal it's far more valuable to throw as many different pitching profiles as you can at another team in a series. Fans do far too much hand-wringing about "is Pitcher X really a No. 3 starter?", and fail to take into account how each pitcher's style reinforces the staff's success as a whole, and how the bullpen will likely be stressed or rested based on the previous day's starter. Having to face Hendricks a day after Arrieta seems like a difficult adjustment, whereas Hammel and Lackey are fairly similar pitchers. Lester, a steady innings-eater who pounds the bottom of the zone, seems like a better fit breaking up the weaker pitchers instead of following up Arrieta.

Anyone seen some good analysis on rotation setup and whether there are gains to be found there? Or is it like lineup construction, where we're only talking about 5-10 runs per season sabermetric vs. traditional?

Saber would probably say that pitching guys in a different order doesn't really matter as much as their raw stuff matters.

I think Kyle has success because he pounds the zone with pitches that have different levels of movement + speed. It's very hard to square up Kyle but when people do, it goes a long way.

Also, Kyle adding a more reliable curveball helps him.

 

[chibears55]

I think "numbering" starters is overrated, especially during the regular season, and that all things being equal it's far more valuable to throw as many different pitching profiles as you can at another team in a series. Fans do far too much hand-wringing about "is Pitcher X really a No. 3 starter?", and fail to take into account how each pitcher's style reinforces the staff's success as a whole, and how the bullpen will likely be stressed or rested based on the previous day's starter. Having to face Hendricks a day after Arrieta seems like a difficult adjustment, whereas Hammel and Lackey are fairly similar pitchers. Lester, a steady innings-eater who pounds the bottom of the zone, seems like a better fit breaking up the weaker pitchers instead of following up Arrieta.

Anyone seen some good analysis on rotation setup and whether there are gains to be found there? Or is it like lineup construction, where we're only talking about 5-10 runs per season sabermetric vs. traditional?

Ok.. ill keep it simple

I dont think Hendricks will be " the guy " to be a top of rotation type nor do i feel he will be just good enough to be a bottom of rotation guy..

I think he will be mostly consistent and keep the team in games, though i think he will have solid games where he will be shut down and he will also get rocked at times.
He will be more of a middle guy.

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[SilenceS]

I wouldnt be comfortable letting a team see Hendricks two times in a 7 game series. He also seems to be a severe split pitcher. He is tremendous at Wrigley and not so good on the road.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I wouldnt be comfortable letting a team see Hendricks two times in a 7 game series. He also seems to be a severe split pitcher. He is tremendous at Wrigley and not so good on the road.

I think this is where I'm at too. He has to have pinpoint command to be effective and with advanced scouting being what it is today I think it's possible to poke holes in that command when you see him regularly. The fact that he adjusts and has that terrific change keeps hm above other guys without superior velocity but his slim margin for error, to me, keeps him from ever being more than a BOR starter, maybe a regular season MOR in his prime. People throw Maddux around a lot as a comp, and frankly late period Maddux is a good comp, but when he was young he had better raw stuff than Hendricks. Kyle can pitch, and I think he's a pros pro, but I think sometimes people get caught up in his numbers and forget to watch how he achieves them. Just my take.

 

[SilenceS]

I think this is where I'm at too. He has to have pinpoint command to be effective and with advanced scouting being what it is today I think it's possible to poke holes in that command when you see him regularly. The fact that he adjusts and has that terrific change keeps hm above other guys without superior velocity but his slim margin for error, to me, keeps him from ever being more than a BOR starter, maybe a regular season MOR in his prime. People throw Maddux around a lot as a comp, and frankly late period Maddux is a good comp, but when he was young he had better raw stuff than Hendricks. Kyle can pitch, and I think he's a pros pro, but I think sometimes people get caught up in his numbers and forget to watch how he achieves them. Just my take.

Maddux threw 93-94 with extreme movement. Hendricks doesnt have half the stuff Maddux had in his repertoire. People seem to forget how good MAddux stuff was because of his execution.