IST: Cubs vs Mets

TL1961

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Jorgeramos said:
His .200 BA convinced you of that?
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No, his success prior to missing a full season did.

Even without missing a full season, the progression with young players is not always linear. See Rizzo as a recent example.
 
CSF77

CSF77

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beckdawg said:
Think this is more a case of limited data as the 469 innings in OF total has Happ at 2.2 UZR/150. Almora in the OF in general has 811.1 innings with a 10.3 UZR/150. Defensive data in general is very hard to determine on short sample sizes. For example, Almora in 811.1 innings has only 172 data points. Happ in CF has 58 in 317.1 innings. It's also worth noting that Almora plays so sporadically that I imagine it's harder for him to get in a rhythm.

Long story short it's pretty obvious just watching them play Almora is a better defender. Whether or not Happ's bat is worth more with his more average-ish defense is an interesting debate worth having but just citing uzr/150 on short sample size doesn't really mean much. I think given the lack of offense of late you're fine going with Happ. Frankly think it's more a case do you want Almora Zobrist or Schwarber in the line up and you just move Happ to whomever you want to sit in LF 2B or CF.
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CF:

Innings Happ: 317, Almora: 574, Jay: 289

There is enough data there to make a legit judgement.

ErrR: He is at -.7 But leads the CF in UZR: 2.8 and RngR: 2.9.

So over all saying that he is a avg to below avg CF is really unjust. That is saying Schwarber sucks in LF when his numbers are at: RngR: -.5 ErrR: -.9 UZR 3.2

Now Almora has had the most innings at CF. The sporadic playing time IMO would affect his timing hitting vs his OF play. But he has excelled in a part time role. the splits don't lie.

Now I'm online with Happ in CF and Almora starting vs LHP and Happ moved over to LF those days. But we should not be seeing Jay in CF starting IMO.
 

beckdawg

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CSF77 said:
There is enough data there to make a legit judgement.
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No there's not man. This is from fangraph's own glossry

Beware of sample sizes! If a player only spent 50 innings at a position last season, it’d be a good idea not to draw too many conclusions from their UZR score over that time. Like with any defensive statistic, you should always use three years of UZR data before trying to draw any conclusions on the true talent level of a fielder.
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CSF77

CSF77

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beckdawg said:
No there's not man. This is from fangraph's own glossary
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With that statement Russell would be not even qualified to make a judgement on at SS. I believe that is a unjust evaluation time.
 
chibears55

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Wouldn't surprise me if Wilson not on playoff roster..

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk
 

beckdawg

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CSF77 said:
With that statement Russell would be not even qualified to make a judgement on at SS. I believe that is a unjust evaluation time.
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There's a difference in 2.5 seasons worth of data and 3 months of data. Also if that's what you feel is unjust you seem to have little understanding of how they come up with those defensive statistics. The reason you need so many innings is because of how few balls actually go toward individual players especially in the outfield.
 
CSF77

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Doubtful. Wilson still has a fastball that hits the upper 90's. I'm not sure why he is hittable sense his league change but the talent is unique in the pen. I just don't see him in high leverage late inning but in a early inning strike out situation he is a good pick.

overall that trade was fine. Avla has been worth the deal alone. Candy really never proved that he was major league quality talent in his call ups and he was not going to get the playing time needed to establish himself. Wilson came with control. So we really can't evaluate him until next year. Who knows he may fix himself this offseason and dominate in the pen. He has done it and has that level of talent.
 
CSF77

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Jorgeramos said:
What are you arguing against? I thought you would be okay with Almora in CF. You're constantly singing his praises.
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He is pro Almora and anti Happ in CF.

I'm saying that the data shows that Happ is better at CF than he says. He is countering with a lack of data to prove it. Which is a fair statement. But it leaves it as vague. We can't say Happ is a major league quality CF or not due to the lack of data. All the data is showing is he is not a black void out there.
 

Jorgeramos

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CSF77 said:
He is pro Almora and anti Happ in CF.

I'm saying that the data shows that Happ is better at CF than he says. He is countering with a lack of data to prove it. Which is a fair statement. But it leaves it as vague. We can't say Happ is a major league quality CF or not due to the lack of data. All the data is showing is he is not a black void out there.
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Then I agree with him. I think Happ sucks in CF. What I would like to see is Kyle in LF, Almora in CF, Heyward in right. Bryant at 3B, Baez at SS, Happ at 2B, Rizzo at 1B.

Almora
Bryant
Rizzo
Contreras
Schwarber
Baez
Happ
Heyward
 
CSF77

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Jorgeramos said:
Then I agree with him. I think Happ sucks in CF. What I would like to see is Kyle in LF, Almora in CF, Heyward in right. Bryant at 3B, Baez at SS, Happ at 2B, Rizzo at 1B.

Ben has a 3.1 UZR at 2B this year. Baez was at .6. Both have over 450 innings there this year. Happ -1.1 227 innings.

Honestly Happ has performed his best in CF. Sure he gets tossed around but come the play offs Joe should end up pushing the same line up in general like last year. So I'm believing Zo at 2B and Happ in CF with Almora as late inning D a reality.
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Jorgeramos

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CSF77 said:
Ben has a 3.1 UZR at 2B this year. Baez was at .6. Both have over 450 innings there this year. Happ -1.1 227 innings.

Honestly Happ has performed his best in CF. Sure he gets tossed around but come the play offs Joe should end up pushing the same line up in general like last year. So I'm believing Zo at 2B and Happ in CF with Almora as late inning D a reality.
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Almora is the future so if you don't play him, I don't know how anyone expects him to grow and improve. It's not going to happen magically.
 

beckdawg

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CSF77 said:
He is pro Almora and anti Happ in CF.

I'm saying that the data shows that Happ is better at CF than he says. He is countering with a lack of data to prove it. Which is a fair statement. But it leaves it as vague. We can't say Happ is a major league quality CF or not due to the lack of data. All the data is showing is he is not a black void out there.
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I'm not anti-Happ. I'm saying that suggesting Happ is a great CF based on 400 or w/e innings is ridiculous. Happ is passible in CF which is fine especially when you add in his bat being plus there. But he's not a better defender than Almora. He's just not. That's not just my opinion. That's the cubs opinion and basically every scout who's weighed in the matter. Why do you think Happ goes to LF when Almora comes into the game? Why do you think when Almora starts games he's in CF?

And more to the point, if the cubs had say Dexter Fowler still, Happ would never be playing in CF. He's getting starts there because the cubs haven't hit for shit lately and Almora hasn't established himself vs RHP yet. But the since the cubs don't have an established starter in CF and LF/2B for that matter they are rotating several players around the 3 positions to give them all the best match up they can. There's nothing wrong with that and its probably the best play for them.

So it's not that I'm anti-Happ. He's a good player but you want him playing in LF or 2B ideally. They are just trading defense for offense right now.
 

Jorgeramos

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The thing about Almora not hitting well vs. RHP is a valid point. But in order to get better, he needs to actually, ya know, hit against RHP. So either let him play, or send him to the minors next year so he can do it. Just keeping him on the bench isn't going to magically fix it.
 

TL1961

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Parade_Rain said:
Because Happ is a better defender and better hitter than the other guy in LF. ;)

Because you wouldn't move Heyward from RF or put Schwarber in CF. Duh!
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When Almora comes into a game in which Happ or Jay started in CF, they move. Says it all. Nobody is talking about Schwarber in CF.
 
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