IST: Cubs vs Mets

[CSF77]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=almoral01&year=2017&t=b

splits were bad for almora, but he is turning it around this season. Seems we have guys making millions that cant hit .250

Depends on if his OBA is heavily dependant on singles. His SLG is in the mid .4 so he has some gap power going on.

Just when you get a guy like him you end up depending on his BABIP more than anything to net value. He is going to put the ball into play 60% of the time.

 

[TL1961]

Because Happ is a better defender and better hitter than the other guy in LF.

When bringing in Almora, and deciding whether to play Almora or Happ in CF, the decision is which is better in CF. Being better than the player leaving is meaningless. If Happ were better defensively in LF than the man coming out of the game AND better defensively in CF than Almora, he would not be in LF.

 

[beckdawg]

When Almora comes into a game in which Happ or Jay started in CF, they move. Says it all. Nobody is talking about Schwarber in CF.

I'm pretty sure Parade was using the metaphorical sarcasm.

 

[DanTown]

I'd argue that Joe doesn't think Almora is a noticeably better CF than Happ; he plays him in CF because Almora has played their almost exclusively in his baseball career where as Happ has experience in the COF spot and Happ has a far stronger arm (which is what matters more in the corners). I don't think Almora playing CF is about him being "better" (or at least better to a noticeable difference than Happ) but playing guys where they're comfortable.

 

[CSF77]

Happ has a stronger arm than Almora? Not sure on that honestly. Almora has a solidarm.

 

[Parade_Rain]

When Almora comes into a game in which Happ or Jay started in CF, they move. Says it all. Nobody is talking about Schwarber in CF.

It says my post wasn't completely 100% super serious.

 

[CSF77]

Almora is the future so if you don't play him, I don't know how anyone expects him to grow and improve. It's not going to happen magically.

Sometimes you just play the odds. It is really up to Almora Jr to make the most of his opertunites vs RHP to gain more playing time.

What I'm seeing is Happ in CF and Almora starting vs LHP. Zo is getting more playing time and his last 30 games has been pretty solid. Jay should be weeded out of the starting rotation and be on add/subtract list depending on the series match up.

Going into next year I'm really not sure how it works out. With Russell back it pushes Baez to 2B which causes more playing time issues. So to be honest it wouldn't be a bad idea to think of a trade to replace Jake in the rotation.

 

[DanTown]

Sometimes you just play the odds. It is really up to Almora Jr to make the most of his opertunites vs RHP to gain more playing time.

What I'm seeing is Happ in CF and Almora starting vs LHP. Zo is getting more playing time and his last 30 games has been pretty solid. Jay should be weeded out of the starting rotation and be on add/subtract list depending on the series match up.

Going into next year I'm really not sure how it works out. With Russell back it pushes Baez to 2B which causes more playing time issues. So to be honest it wouldn't be a bad idea to think of a trade to replace Jake in the rotation.

Your next year rotation should be replacing Jay with a RHP OF (let's say Jarrod Dyson)

v LHP
Zobrist - 2B
Almora - CF
Bryant - RF
Rizzo - 1B
Contreras - C
Happ - LF
Baez - 3B
Russell - SS
Bench: Dyson, Schwarber, Heyward, LaStella, Caratini

Vs RHP
Zobrist - 2B
Bryant - 3B
Rizzo - 1B
Contreras - C
Schwarber - C
Happ - CF
Heyward - RF
Russell - SS
Bench: Dyson, Baez, Almora, LaStella, Caratini

 

[CSF77]

Bryant in RF? Well what happens if he runs into a wall?

Now I get it if he has to move off 3B but it is far more realistic to see that when Rizzo's deal is up and they move Bryant to 1B.

Now him coming in to cover in a pinch is expected. But highly doubtful as a season solution.

What I believe they should do is get agressive with Archer/Cole. See what it would take to deal with them.

Another opertunity is with the astros and Verlander. They may take less to offload his deal as he made more sense in a postseason push vs a longer window. So that is a outside of the box deal.

Dealing for cost controlled is nice but doubtful with pitching at premium value.

Otani I wouldn't go into the offseason with him as my top priority. That is a roulette table option

 

[DanTown]

Otani I wouldn't go into the offseason with him as my top priority. That is a roulette table option

What's the downside of Otani at the price they're talking?

 

[TL1961]

None

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I was in a discussion about Schwarber elsewhere and I dug up some numbers. I knew this to be basically true but looking at the numbers really helps understand development. This is a comparison of Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber at virtually the same number of PA (718 for Rizzo, 721 for Schwarber)

Rizzo- .248/.323/.426 .749 OPS .329 wOBA 107 wRC+ 38 HR
K% 20.9
Schwarber- .220/.331/.465 .796 OPS .342 wOBA 112 wRC+ 42 HR
K% 29.5

The difference is in the K rate, but Kyle actually has the edge in the advanced stats.

 

[DanTown]

I was in a discussion about Schwarber elsewhere and I dug up some numbers. I knew this to be basically true but looking at the numbers really helps understand development. This is a comparison of Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber at virtually the same number of PA (718 for Rizzo, 721 for Schwarber)

Rizzo- .248/.323/.426 .749 OPS .329 wOBA 107 wRC+ 38 HR
K% 20.9
Schwarber- .220/.331/.465 .796 OPS .342 wOBA 112 wRC+ 42 HR
K% 29.5

The difference is in the K rate, but Kyle actually has the edge in the advanced stats.

There is nothing lazier than quoting a guy who shares similar traits with a guy and then saying that the second guy will be successful like guy A was. And Rizzo was drastically improving throughout his time in the majors (he looked overmatched in SD in 2011, in 2012 the Cubs stupidly were trying to get him to pull less which they stopped and let him go back to his pull strengths in 2013 and by 2014 Rizzo was an all-star level producer) where as Schwarber has consistently looked worse each two months that have passed in his major league career.

Look, there are dozens of players on both sides Schwarber could be. He could be Aaron Judge/Michael Conforto or Mark Reyonlds/Mark Trumbo. None of us can accurately predict that. But I'd love it if someone can give me positives about Schwarber's approach or mechanics that speak to how he has to change.

 

[CSF77]

What's the downside of Otani at the price they're talking?

That is the point. Every team can afford his price tag. Thus roulette table option.

You don't going into the off with that being your out.

Sure you push it and play alongside every other team in baseball.

But he is more of a OMG WE GOT HIM! Moment and readjust the staff after vs visioning him in the rotation.

 

[CSF77]

I was in a discussion about Schwarber elsewhere and I dug up some numbers. I knew this to be basically true but looking at the numbers really helps understand development. This is a comparison of Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber at virtually the same number of PA (718 for Rizzo, 721 for Schwarber)

Rizzo- .248/.323/.426 .749 OPS .329 wOBA 107 wRC+ 38 HR
K% 20.9
Schwarber- .220/.331/.465 .796 OPS .342 wOBA 112 wRC+ 42 HR
K% 29.5

The difference is in the K rate, but Kyle actually has the edge in the advanced stats.

What were their age's at those times?

 

[TC in Mississippi]

There is nothing lazier than quoting a guy who shares similar traits with a guy and then saying that the second guy will be successful like guy A was. And Rizzo was drastically improving throughout his time in the majors (he looked overmatched in SD in 2011, in 2012 the Cubs stupidly were trying to get him to pull less which they stopped and let him go back to his pull strengths in 2013 and by 2014 Rizzo was an all-star level producer) where as Schwarber has consistently looked worse each two months that have passed in his major league career.

Look, there are dozens of players on both sides Schwarber could be. He could be Aaron Judge/Michael Conforto or Mark Reyonlds/Mark Trumbo. None of us can accurately predict that. But I'd love it if someone can give me positives about Schwarber's approach or mechanics that speak to how he has to change.

Rizzo's development was different, every players' is, he was terrible, then had a good season, then a rough one. Kyle started hot and cooled off and then was injured. Started rough this year, was very good when he came back and cooled off again. You mention that Kyle has looked worse every two months, but I disagree with that. Since coming back from the minors he's slashed .258/.352/.566 with 14 HR .383 wOBA 136 wRC+. My point was not to show that Kyle will develop like Rizzo, instead I wanted to give an example of development. Does Schwarber have work to do? Absolutely, my point wasn't to make a lazy comparison, it was to make a show a basic model of development to people who had written Kyle off. I could have picked anyone but since the discussion was with Cubs fans on another site was I picked Rizzo. Sorry, maybe my original post lacked that context.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

What were their age's at those times?

Roughly the same 22-24. Rizzo had more minor league time in that period, Schwarber had the injury.

 

[chibears55]

Just wanted to note that there been a bunch of Schwarber talk both good n bad and none from me...[emoji16]

Just saying

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

 

[Diehardfan]

Rizzo's development was different, every players' is, he was terrible, then had a good season, then a rough one. Kyle started hot and cooled off and then was injured. Started rough this year, was very good when he came back and cooled off again. You mention that Kyle has looked worse every two months, but I disagree with that. Since coming back from the minors he's slashed .258/.352/.566 with 14 HR .383 wOBA 136 wRC+. My point was not to show that Kyle will develop like Rizzo, instead I wanted to give an example of development. Does Schwarber have work to do? Absolutely, my point wasn't to make a lazy comparison, it was to make a show a basic model of development to people who had written Kyle off. I could have picked anyone but since the discussion was with Cubs fans on another site was I picked Rizzo. Sorry, maybe my original post lacked that context.

You don't have to apologize to anyone on this board. Your original post wasn't laced with metrics....so Mr. Metric deemed it unsuitable. Does he ever apologize for his long winded, boring insights on the tedious world of metrics?

 

[Diehardfan]

Just wanted to note that there been a bunch of Schwarber talk both good n bad and none from me...[emoji16]

Just saying

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

Emoji Man....I can deal with blasting on Schwarber but I won't put up with blown emojis.

Fix it.