IST: Cubs vs. Pirates

[chibears55]

Unlike most , I don't have alot of confidence in the team to win the WC game even with Arrieta.
I just dont trust the offense and feel there more of a chance of them losing 1-0, 2-1 more then winning. .

If they advance into the NLDS, i definitely have minimum confidence they win that series with Hammel having to start 2 games..

Right now im happy and satisfied where the team is, anything more they give in post season is ice cream with the cake..

Im really looking forward to next season and expect more from them..

 

[CSF77]

I think Arrieta has only given up 2 runs over the last 52 innings pitched.

I honestly believe the best chance they have is Arreta vs Cole in a 1 game. After that with out Martenez it becomes Wacha who the Cubs have wrecked then Lackey who would match up vs Hammel. Lackey has been a thorn anyways and I'm fine wasting a loss on Hammel vs a bad match up. Game 3 then would have Arrieta vs a back of the rotation. You have to give that to Jake. Game 4 I would give it to Hendricks then to Line up Lester for game 1 in the next series.

Over all I believe Arreta will beat Cole. Pirates are going to get a good look at him and it would almost be tempting to push him back to keep the advantage going into the series. Cubs have just seen Cole and every advantage you can take tou should

 

[Diehardfan]

Makes them very beatable in a series. We definitely should not want Pittsburgh to catch them. In a one game playoff I like their chances against the Pirates, a 5 game series not so much.

I thought they were beatable with Martinez.....but you know how things go with the Cardinals. They'll bring up some nondescript kid to start for them and he'll end up being the star of the series.

 

[Diehardfan]

Unlike most , I don't have alot of confidence in the team to win the WC game even with Arrieta.
I just dont trust the offense and feel there more of a chance of them losing 1-0, 2-1 more then winning. .

If they advance into the NLDS, i definitely have minimum confidence they win that series with Hammel having to start 2 games..

Right now im happy and satisfied where the team is, anything more they give in post season is ice cream with the cake..

Im really looking forward to next season and expect more from them..

Yeah, I remember saying the same thing at one point but when you get this far....you just don't want it to end. How about one good game out of Hammel and the dreaded bullpen game in the other? Any port in a storm....

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Unlike most , I don't have alot of confidence in the team to win the WC game even with Arrieta.
I just dont trust the offense and feel there more of a chance of them losing 1-0, 2-1 more then winning. .

If they advance into the NLDS, i definitely have minimum confidence they win that series with Hammel having to start 2 games..

Right now im happy and satisfied where the team is, anything more they give in post season is ice cream with the cake..

Im really looking forward to next season and expect more from them..

You shouldn't have either confidence or lack of it. It's a one game playoff and as such is statistically impossible to predict. Flip a coin and the chances are the same. It's also why the format is dumb. Just sit back and enjoy. They certainly can win and that's all you can look at.

 

[chibears55]

You shouldn't have either confidence or lack of it. It's a one game playoff and as such is statistically impossible to predict. Flip a coin and the chances are the same. It's also why the format is dumb. Just sit back and enjoy. They certainly can win and that's all you can look at.

My lack of confidence goes mainly towards the offense. .
As i said it could be a 1-0, 2-1 game..

IMO, it less then a coin flip chance when your on the road in a game like this facing a team top starter..

The coin flip chance is just between the starters ..
Then you add in visiting fans, batting last, experience, etc.
and the scale tips more for the home team


The Format is what it is because they cant have the division winners sitting idle over a week while 2 teams play a best of 3.

I don't mind the1 game between the 2 non division winners..
I think we will start seeing teams go 3 deep in pitching now , either at start of season or add the 3rd guy at deadline if their contenders. .

 

[TC in Mississippi]

My lack of confidence goes mainly towards the offense. .
As i said it could be a 1-0, 2-1 game..

IMO, it less then a coin flip chance when your on the road in a game like this facing a team top starter..

The coin flip chance is just between the starters ..
Then you add in visiting fans, batting last, experience, etc.
and the scale tips more for the home team


The Format is what it is because they cant have the division winners sitting idle over a week while 2 teams play a best of 3.

I don't mind the1 game between the 2 non division winners..
I think we will start seeing teams go 3 deep in pitching now , either at start of season or add the 3rd guy at deadline if their contenders. .

No the coin flip is the statistical probability of any team in baseball playing any other on a single day. The worst team in baseball can beat the best in a single day. Weather conditions, injuries, freak plays can all play a part. When the teams are as evenly matched as these the randomness is even more pronounced.

The one game format won't last much longer. They'll either start the season earlier and finagle the schedule to have games in warm climes or covered stadiums or they'll go with the othe frequently discussed idea and have teams play a few scheduled day/night names so that the playoffs start earlier. Baseball is not a win or go home type of game.

 

[CSF77]

I think of it as if they signed Price they could run Price on the WC game then ran Arreta game 1 then Lester Game 2 back to Price game 3.

Even though I have a hard time believing the wouldn't take the div with Price and Arreta. Very hard to believe.

Out side of that they need to balance the line up with more contact hitters. Which is why Castro needs to start vs Cole. They need to limit the higher SO types and get the ball in play more. So basically you want Castro, Rizzo, Coghlan in there. If Schwarber is struggling they should push him to PH.

Russell or Baez. I would start Russell to minimize the mistakes. Almost tempting to put Baez at 3B and Bryant in RF to put the best D out there with Cog back in LF.

That is the way I would approach it. Now if Schwarber starts to blow up again then you adjust to it. But as of right now he is just there. And that is not good enough

 

[chibears55]

I think of it as if they signed Price they could run Price on the WC game then ran Arreta game 1 then Lester Game 2 back to Price game 3.

Even though I have a hard time believing the wouldn't take the div with Price and Arreta. Very hard to believe.

Out side of that they need to balance the line up with more contact hitters. Which is why Castro needs to start vs Cole. They need to limit the higher SO types and get the ball in play more. So basically you want Castro, Rizzo, Coghlan in there. If Schwarber is struggling they should push him to PH.

Russell or Baez. I would start Russell to minimize the mistakes. Almost tempting to put Baez at 3B and Bryant in RF to put the best D out there with Cog back in LF.

That is the way I would approach it. Now if Schwarber starts to blow up again then you adjust to it. But as of right now he is just there. And that is not good enough

Im thinking they go this route against Cole..

C. Montero
1B. Rizzo
2B. Castro
SS. Russell
3B. Bryant
LF. Schwarber
CF. Fowler
RF. Coghlin

Baez could come in as defensive replacement for Castro in late innings. ..

Denorfia or Jackson could do the same for Schwarber late..

 

[CSF77]

Im thinking they go this route against Cole..

C. Montero
1B. Rizzo
2B. Castro
SS. Russell
3B. Bryant
LF. Schwarber
CF. Fowler
RF. Coghlin

Baez could come in as defensive replacement for Castro in late innings. ..

Denorfia or Jackson could do the same for Schwarber late..

CF Fowler
LF Coghlan
RF Bryant
1B Rizzo
2B Castro
C Montero
3B Baez
P Arrieta
SS Russell

I believe if you bring in a higher SO% type it is to improve the D. That is the way I look at it. But if some one is coming in hot you play him. But in general Baez > Bryant at 3B. Bryant > Soler in RF. Castro is a contact hitter. Coghlan contact hitter. Schwarber is SO near 30% and that is not what you want out of him. Sure give him the off season to work on it and start fresh. But right now his D doesn't justify it. Not to mention LF is really not a prime D position.

Jackson is hitting .196 right now. He ia another liability at the plate. They can't afford to give him AB's.

 

[CSF77]

But last 30 days:

Castro .397
Bryant: .343
LaStella: .293
Baez: .286
Soler: .286
Montero: .281
Coghlan: .262
Rizzo: .245
Fowler: .239
Russell: .210
Jackson: .196
Schwarber: .177

There was a reason why I wanted Schwarber no where near the line up that day unless he gets red hot right now and carries it to the end.

 

[Boobaby1]

But last 30 days:

Castro .397
Bryant: .343
LaStella: .293
Baez: .286
Soler: .286
Montero: .281
Coghlan: .262
Rizzo: .245
Fowler: .239
Russell: .210
Jackson: .196
Schwarber: .177

There was a reason why I wanted Schwarber no where near the line up that day unless he gets red hot right now and carries it to the end.

With a week to go, Schwarber could very well turn it around..

That's what you want.

Another thing is, maybe we get Pittsburgh to play good baseball, and then start to play not-so-good baseball when they play the Cubs and we get red hot.

 

[chibears55]

But last 30 days:

Castro .397
Bryant: .343
LaStella: .293
Baez: .286
Soler: .286
Montero: .281
Coghlan: .262
Rizzo: .245
Fowler: .239
Russell: .210
Jackson: .196
Schwarber: .177

There was a reason why I wanted Schwarber no where near the line up that day unless he gets red hot right now and carries it to the end.

I dont disagree with you but i think Schwarber plays because he has that big game potential. ..

Hopefully he gets it going again, against the reds and brewers pitching

 

[chibears55]

With a week to go, Schwarber could very well turn it around..

That's what you want.

Another thing is, maybe we get Pittsburgh to play good baseball, and then start to play not-so-good baseball when they play the Cubs and we get red hot.

That what im hoping, the pirates with their 8 game winning streak peaked too soon here and cool off at end of season heading into that WC game. .

 

[CSF77]

With a week to go, Schwarber could very well turn it around..

That's what you want.

Another thing is, maybe we get Pittsburgh to play good baseball, and then start to play not-so-good baseball when they play the Cubs and we get red hot.

I wouldn't count on it. You have to go with the odds and the league is on line with Schwarber. He needs to figure what they are doing to him and re adjust. He is talented enough to get past it but you can't bank on it this year.

2nd part is hot air. We have to go with what we know. Cole and Liriano have shut down the hitters and Lester and Hammel did not. So that means right now the Pirates are a better team than the Cubs. Sure when Arrieta gets on the mound; that day they Cubs are the hardest team to beat in baseball but that is 1 out of 5 days.


To over come that I believe will take 2 things. 1. Adding a 2nd top tier starter. But that only affects 1 out of 5 games. 2nd the kids getting past their growing pains and that takes time.

That is why I don't expect much this year. I believe they can knock off Pitt in a 1 game no matter where it is played. Arrieta is just that good. Cards are a wounded animal right now and are very vulnerable going into a series. They are getting knocked out by either the Cubs or the Pirates.Following series Mets are a easier win vs the Dodgers.

End of the day I see the Jays winning the series. That is where I would put the odds.

 

[SilenceS]

Couple of things, Schwarber is 1 for 5 with a walk and a K against Cole. Righties hit Cole better. People forget how young Cole is and he has shown signs of wearing down. His ERA has gone up every month of season except May and June. Another key thing, you have to get to him early. He gets strong as the game goes on. You have to be aggressive with him. Jump on him early and the Cubs will be in good shape. He has struck out 32 Cubs in 25.1 innings. He has allowed 6 ER and 8 total runs.

Arrieta has allowed 3 ER in 29 innings against Pitt before today's start. Cole has also been better on the road then home. The Cubs can win this game. I just believe they have to be aggressive at the plate and the seeing a lot of pitches approach would do more harm than good against a pitcher like Cole. Remember, Cole has pitched 70 more innings this year then he has ever pitched in the majors. Arrieta is way above his career mark as well but he hasn't shown any signs of wavering and I believe Maddon said Arrieta is a freakishly in shape.

 

[SilenceS]

Couple of other things, I can see a lineup like CFS because Maddon needs to balance D with hitting against Cole. Righties hit him better and your best hitter for the past month has been Castro. Since August Castro has struck out 15 times in 134 PA. I would venture we would see him in the wild card game. I think it comes down to do you play Schwarber, Cogs, and Baez. One of those will have to sit.

Also, I would like to see Maddon give Rizzo a game or two off next week to get his head right. We need his bat and he has been in a bit of slump. Lets get him refreshed.

 

[Chief Walking Stick]

Man what a gut punch.

Now it's down to wondering if the Cubs are going to be playing the Cards or Pirates in the play in game.

 

[SilenceS]

Man what a gut punch.

Now it's down to wondering if the Cubs are going to be playing the Cards or Pirates in the play in game.

You ate after midnight eh?

 

[SilenceS]

Cardinals just blew a 3-1 lead in the ninth. They have given up 7 runs and still no outs. Rosenthal gave a up a GS. These Cards are not scary right now.