IST: Cubs vs. Reds

[TC in Mississippi]

So listening to Chicago Sports Radio Thursday Night, Dayn Perry was being interviewed and he believes there could be quite a bit of love for Kershaw still. I guess I wouldn't be surprised if there were two Cubs in the top five or zero. It's just that competitive this year in the NL.

My guy said the same thing but discounted it some because Kershaw has been good but not dominant since his return. He said that if he had come back lights out it would have been his because the general feeling is that there isn't a clear winner or even a late dominating guy like Arrieta last year to grab it at the end.

 

[brett05]

They also lead to higher pitch counts and less defense behind the pitcher.

k's do lead to higher pitch counts, but the guys that are good at k's usually have no issues with it.

 

[brett05]

My guy said the same thing but discounted it some because Kershaw has been good but not dominant since his return. He said that if he had come back lights out it would have been his because the general feeling is that there isn't a clear winner or even a late dominating guy like Arrieta last year to grab it at the end.

A bit light on the innings, but the innings he has pitched has to be summarized as dominant

http://www.baseball-reference.com/p...2016&share=2.75#261-263-sum:pitching_gamelogs

 

[TC in Mississippi]

A bit light on the innings, but the innings he has pitched has to be summarized as dominant

http://www.baseball-reference.com/p...2016&share=2.75#261-263-sum:pitching_gamelogs

I would tend to agree but what he was saying mad sense. They were looking for "best pitcher of the last 30 year" Kershaw and all they got was the best in the game. Writers are strange beasts.

 

[CSF77]

You can't make it into the best pitcher award. It would be Kershaw then Fernandez every year then.

It is based off of performance that year. Shaw was injured a chunk of it and should be DQed on that alone. Fernandez on a contender vs a crap team he is keeping afloat is a consideration. I don't think he has separated himself enough but an arguement can be made that his numbers would be better on a contender. I think you have to go with the given results and penalize him for it.

I'm still in the Lester crowd. His W/L is the best. ERA top 2. Solid SO's. Over all he has been quietly emerging as the ace of the staff.

 

[brett05]

You can't make it into the best pitcher award. It would be Kershaw then Fernandez every year then.

It is based off of performance that year. Shaw was injured a chunk of it and should be DQed on that alone. Fernandez on a contender vs a crap team he is keeping afloat is a consideration. I don't think he has separated himself enough but an arguement can be made that his numbers would be better on a contender. I think you have to go with the given results and penalize him for it.

I'm still in the Lester crowd. His W/L is the best. ERA top 2. Solid SO's. Over all he has been quietly emerging as the ace of the staff.

Since King Felix I don't think w/l really plays into it at all. WAR plays bigger than I want and with that It's Jose, Thor, Max, Cueto as your top four.

 

[fatbeard]

Since King Felix I don't think w/l really plays into it at all. WAR plays bigger than I want and with that It's Jose, Thor, Max, Cueto as your top four.

Last year's NL Cy Young results indicate that WAR plays virtually no role in the minds of the voters.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-awards-2015-cy-young-voting-results-and-ballots/

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...5&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

[TC in Mississippi]

You can't make it into the best pitcher award. It would be Kershaw then Fernandez every year then.

It is based off of performance that year. Shaw was injured a chunk of it and should be DQed on that alone. Fernandez on a contender vs a crap team he is keeping afloat is a consideration. I don't think he has separated himself enough but an arguement can be made that his numbers would be better on a contender. I think you have to go with the given results and penalize him for it.

I'm still in the Lester crowd. His W/L is the best. ERA top 2. Solid SO's. Over all he has been quietly emerging as the ace of the staff.

Hmmm...

Per Wikipedia:

The Cy Young Award is given annually to the best pitchers in Major League Baseball (MLB), one each for the American League (AL) and National League (NL). The award was first introduced in 1956 by Baseball Commissioner Ford Frick in honor of Hall of Fame pitcher Cy Young, who died in 1955. The award was originally given to the single best pitcher in the major leagues, but in 1967, after the retirement of Frick, the award was given to one pitcher in each league.[1][2]

Each league's award is voted on by members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America, with one representative from each team. As of the 2010 season, each voter places a vote for first, second, third, fourth and fifth place among the pitchers of each league. The formula used to calculate the final scores is a weighted sum of the votes.[A] The pitcher with the highest score in each league wins the award.[1] If two pitchers receive the same number of votes, the award is shared.[3] The current formula started in the 2010 season. Before that, dating back to 1970, writers voted for three pitchers, with the formula of 5 points for a first place vote, 3 for a second place vote and 1 for a third place vote. Prior to 1970, writers only voted for the best pitcher and used a formula of one point per vote.[1]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cy_Young_Award

By definition the Cy Young Award is supposed to go to the best pitcher in the league. I think it's only the human element that keeps it from being the same guy every year when warranted. Kershaw was a better pitcher in 2012 than R.A. Dickey but the latter was a great story and stories play a part, even if they probably shouldn't. Frankly, strictly going by the numbers, he should have won last year over Arrieta but again great story and Jake really had a historic 2nd half. Still in both those years Kershaw was the best pitcher overall and the criteria of the award spells that out. That said the human element is only natural when you realize that if Clayton Kershaw won 10 CY awards in a row other teams and other team's players would harbor resentment and jealousy and resentment to not great stories make.

 

[CSF77]

Same argument with MJ and LeBron

 

[CSF77]

Last year's NL Cy Young results indicate that WAR plays virtually no role in the minds of the voters.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-awards-2015-cy-young-voting-results-and-ballots/

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...5&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

All I'm seeing is xfip = WAR. So higher so/9 means more war with equal innings. Again skewed towards the sexy stat

 

[DanTown]

All I'm seeing is xfip = WAR. So higher so/9 means more war with equal innings. Again skewed towards the sexy stat

You do understand that a pitcher with more strikeouts is better than a guy with less if everything else (walks, hits, XBH, SB against, etc) are all the same?

 

[fatbeard]

All I'm seeing is xfip = WAR. So higher so/9 means more war with equal innings. Again skewed towards the sexy stat

fWAR uses FIP in its calculation, not xFIP as far as I remember.

 

[CSF77]

You do understand that a pitcher with more strikeouts is better than a guy with less if everything else (walks, hits, XBH, SB against, etc) are all the same?

Never the case. But if you did every thing equal except SO's it is plain to see. But looking at SO's only is narrow viewed

 

[chibears55]

Looking at remaining schedule

Mets have Philies 6 Miami 3
Cards have cubs 2 Cincinnati 4 Pirates 3
Giants have SD 3 Col 3 Dodgers 3

Mets and Cards have easier finish then Giants
Dodgers If they wrap up division could still be playing for HF against Nats come final weekend against Giants

So I guess if cubs do sweep there still a chance for Cards to make it over Giants , especially if SD can win at least 1 against them this weekend


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[chibears55]

I expect the cubs to have three in the top 5 splitting the vote and Scherzer ending up with the award with the sexy strike outs. I dont think that really wins the argument if only one cub starter had the numbers this year.

Pretty much as I said would happen for Arrieta last year
Kershaw and Greinke split West coast votes..

But

I think Lester will get more votes over Hendricks though

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[brett05]

Pretty much as I said would happen for Arrieta last year
Kershaw and Greinke split West coast votes..

But

I think Lester will get more votes over Hendricks though

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Split votes don't happen like that. If you have say two candidates for the top prize, yes they split votes, but then the other gets the second place vote preventing a third or fourth option to move up.

 

[brett05]

Given the romanticism that is inherent in baseball, this might be Jose's.