IST: Cubs vs. Reds

[chibears55]

Funny thing is, the tie keeps them from setting up their ace in a wc game, so we are actually more likely to see their ace.

But they may use a lot of relief pitchers.

You're getting their ACE either way..but bonus is game 1

If Cubs opponent has to play Monday(ACE) then again Tuesday(no.2)
Then they have to start NLDS with no.3 starter on Friday, but can pitch ACE in game 2 on 4 days rest instead of game 3 with 5 days rest

But

Who knows its possible these teams may end up running out their no.1 and 2 on the last weekend if its that close and they need to win..
So they may end up starting their 3 or 4 in extra game/ WC if they advance


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[TL1961]

You're getting their ACE either way..but bonus is game 1

If Cubs opponent has to play Monday(ACE) then again Tuesday(no.2)
Then they have to start NLDS with no.3 starter on Friday, but can pitch ACE in game 2 on 4 days rest instead of game 3 with 5 days rest


Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

My point is, that often, as in 2015, both WC teams use their ace, so in the NLDS, the ace is not available in Game 1 or 2. (I think we all can agree the ace doesn't miss the series, just the first two games).

But this year, with three teams tied with ten to go, none of them can set up their ace to go Monday. The Ace on monday sounds logical if there were days off. But there are not. So their rotations just fall where they fall. (I haven't looked to see how they will shake out if all three teams keep their rotations as they are, but I assume they will, with exception of final game or two if they trail.)

So it is possible we see a team's ace in Game 1 or 2 (and therefore, possibly twice), unlike most years where that won't happen.

 

[ChicagoBornCalifLiving]

I'm rooting for the Mets to get in, the Giants are stronger than the birds but i hope the Cardinals don't make the postseason

I agree with you but the thought of each team having to use two starting pitchers and one of them three is so tempting to root for.

 

[DanTown]

Assuming the teams don't end up in a tiebreaker of three teams equally (so either one tiebreaker game)

Giants
Friday - Bumgarner
Saturday - Suarez
Sunday - Cueto
TIE - Moore
WC - Bumgarner
Game 1 - Jeff Z
Game 2 - Cueto
Game 3 - Bumgarner
Game 4 - Moore
Game 5 - Jeff Z
OR
WC - Bumgarner
Game 1 - Moore
Game 2 - Cueto
Game 3 - Bumgarner
Game 4 - Jeff Z
Game 5 - Moore

St Louis (the only team that likely will not matter whether or not they play a tiebreaker)
Friday - Martinez
Saturday - Wainwright
Sunday - Weaver
TIE - Reyes/Leake
WC - Martinez
Game 1 - Wainwright
Game 2 - Reyes/Leake
Game 3 - Martinez
Game 4 - Reyes/Leake
Game 5 - Wainwright


Mets
Friday - Syndergaard
Saturday - Gsellman
Sunday - Colon
TIE - Matz
WC - Syndergaard
Game 1 - Lugo
Game 2 - Colon
Game 3 - Syndergaard
Game 4 - Matz
Game 5 - Lugo
OR
Game 1 - Matz
Game 2 - Colon
Game 3 - Syndergaard
Game 4 - Lugo
Game 5 - Matz

Tl; dr - The Cubs will most likely only face an ace (Bumgarner, Martinez, or Syndergaard) once (game 3) as each team has it slated for those guys to pitch Friday then pitch the WC game on Wednesday.

If there is a three team tie, the setup is this

Team B @ Team A for One WC Spot (Monday)
Loser @ Team C for other WC Spot (Tuesday)

The teams get to choose their spot so the Cardinals would likely choose team A because you get a home game AND two chances to win. Mets would have an interesting choice

Team B - Has to travel from Philly (Sunday) to St Louis (Monday) to potentially San Francisco (Tuesday) and then would have to go back to St Louis (Wednesday) and then Chicago (Friday). You get two chances to win one game buy the travel is crazy.

Team C - Get to rest and "setup" your team for Tuesday/Wednesday but you also have two straight "win or go home" games.

The Giants would be
Tiebreaker Game 1 - Moore
Tiebreaker Game 2 - Jeff Z
WC - Bumgarner
Game 1 - Cain or Suarez
Game 2 - Cueto
Game 3 - Bumgarner
Game 4 - Moore
Game 5 - Jeff Z or Cueto

The Cardinals would then be like this
Tiebreaker game 1 - Reyes/Leake
Tiebreaker Game 2 (if necessary) - Reyes/Leake
Game 2 - Weaver

The Mets would be like this
Tiebreaker game 1 - Matz
Tiebreaker game 2 (if necessary) - Lugo
Game 1 - Gsellman
Game 2 - Colon
Game 3 - Syndegaard
Game 4 - Matz
Game 5 - Lugo

 

[SilenceS]

Lackey talked about how big Miggy was for him tonight. I think we are going to carry 3 catchers into the playoffs. Miggy has gotten the bat going and looks way more flexible behind the plate than earlier this year.

 

[DanTown]

A out is a out regardless if it is a fly, grounder pop up or strike out.

That's simply a false statement because you're solely judging RESULTS and not the process of how it happened.

 

[beckdawg]

Lackey talked about how big Miggy was for him tonight. I think we are going to carry 3 catchers into the playoffs. Miggy has gotten the bat going and looks way more flexible behind the plate than earlier this year.

As much as Joe moves guys around it would make sense. And Miggy is obviously a lefty which helps.

 

[beckdawg]

So... I know this may not seem like much but Heyward looks like he's started turning things around in the underlying numbers. His second half soft/med/hard contact rates are 25.9%/44.1%/30.0%. For reference his career marks are 22.8%/46.9%/30.4%. Of note, his hard hit rate was WAY down in the first half at 23.8%. His infield fly ball rate was very high as well at 17.3%. Second half that's back down to 9.8% which is actually below his 12.7% career rate. I wouldn't go so far as to suggest he's all the way back but there's some encouraging signs. August was pretty brutal for his walk rate(2.3%) probably because people were throwing him strikes rather than pitching around him. But his K rate the past 2 months has been very strong at 12.8% and 12.1% respectively. And in September his walk rate is back up to 9.1%. He's also pulling the ball more in the second half which goes more to his career rates for pull/center/oppo at 42.0%/35.0%/23.0%. In the second half they are 45.9%/33.5%/20.6% compared to his 37.1%/39.1%/23.8% first half rates.

His standard numbers don't look pretty. He's hitting .214/.262/.306 in the second half. But the underlying numbers suggest he's close to being where he usually is career wise. And a lot of that does have to do with a .234 BABIP for someone who's career BABIP is .303. In the first half, his BABIP was actually fairly normal at .292. Second half looks more like bad luck as his line drive rate infield fly rate and ground ball rate are as good if not better than his career marks and obviously his hard contact rate is up. Also, his exit velocity is up at the highest point it's been all year.

The cubs have another two weeks or so to fully get right. Wouldn't shock me at all to see it all click back into place for Heyward right as the playoffs start which would obviously be huge. Might not happen but definitely something I plan to keep an eye on in the largely meaningless games to come.

 

[TL1961]

i have a hard time picturing Montero being left off the roster. But he doesn't help defensively, and in lower scoring postseason games, running may be a factor.

And lefty or not, he's not who I want to see in a PH situation, especially with a man on first.

 

[brett05]

But that is already factored in elsewhere.

If I allow a sac fly while you strike out a batter, and get more credit for the K, I get penalized twice.

Penalized twice? Can you clarify that for me?

 

[TL1961]

My run allowed on the "wrong kind of out" factors into the other stats. You then getting credit for a K means a doible effect of that sac fly.

I agree all outs are not equal, but using K's as another factor to compare two pitchers under the assumption that they save runs, doubles their effect. And I think that's faulty reasoning.

 

[brett05]

My run allowed on the "wrong kind of out" factors into the other stats. You then getting credit for a K means a doible effect of that sac fly.

I agree all outs are not equal, but using K's as another factor to compare two pitchers under the assumption that they save runs, doubles their effect. And I think that's faulty reasoning.

I don't understand your first paragraph at all. I'm sure it's me.

K's are a more valuable out than a ball in play. the chances of getting a run across is least with a K making the out more productive for the defense than a ball in play over the long haul, no?

 

[anotheridiot]

i have a hard time picturing Montero being left off the roster. But he doesn't help defensively, and in lower scoring postseason games, running may be a factor.

And lefty or not, he's not who I want to see in a PH situation, especially with a man on first.

The scenario we might see is Miggy replacing Hammel on the post season roster though, so its different than taking away another position player.

 

[CSF77]

That's simply a false statement because you're solely judging RESULTS and not the process of how it happened.

How is a out not a out?

Brett hit on how some outs are a advantage where you move a runner up or score a run on it.

My whole point is it weighs more towards the strike out. That is why I'm not a fan of the stat. It is a tool not a measuring stick of the quality of a pitcher.

 

[brett05]

How is a out not a out?

Brett hit on how some outs are a advantage where you move a runner up or score a run on it.

My whole point is it weighs more towards the strike out. That is why I'm not a fan of the stat. It is a tool not a measuring stick of the quality of a pitcher.

It should way more on a strikeout. It's the best out for the defense to get while minimizing as much risk as possible.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

Lackey talked about how big Miggy was for him tonight. I think we are going to carry 3 catchers into the playoffs. Miggy has gotten the bat going and looks way more flexible behind the plate than earlier this year.

Yep - Miggy is in.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

The majority of the season I've been fearful of the Mets. But at this point they are so injury-ravaged, I actually think facing them would be the best case scenario. Degrom is done. Harvey is done. Matz has been injured. And Colon is 48 years old. Offensively they are not the team they were last year -- losing Murphy was devastating to them. Facing the Mets would be a dream.

As for the Cards, I don't particularly fear them. They have inconsistent starting pitching and offensively they can only hit homer's. They struggle to grind it out and manufacture runs. That is not a recipe for post season success. Could they beat us in a 5-game series? Yes, absolutely. I think we beat them 7 out 10 times in a best of five series. Forget the regular season - the odds are in our favor. But anything could happen.

San Fran is a little scarier to me. Cueto's MRI came back negative and he'll just have one start pushed back a little. With Madison and Cueto, they have the ability to shut us down. I don't believe The Shark will be able to shut us down, but if they can get Madison or Cueto twice against us -- they could take us out. Do I think it's likely? No - again, I think the odds are in our favor. But it's playoffs in baseball and anything could happen.

I truly believe if we advance past the NLDS, we're golden. We're too deep and complete of a team in all facets (offense, defense, starting pitching, bullpen, managing, etc) to get beaten. But man, it's the NLDS that keeps me up at night.

Here is how I would take the odds against the three most likely NLDS opponents:

Mets (80% chance we win).
STL (70% chance we win).
SFG (65% chance we win).

 

[CSF77]

It should way more on a strikeout. It's the best out for the defense to get while minimizing as much risk as possible.

Pop up is concidered a auto out too

 

[TC in Mississippi]

The majority of the season I've been fearful of the Mets. But at this point they are so injury-ravaged, I actually think facing them would be the best case scenario. Degrom is done. Harvey is done. Matz has been injured. And Colon is 48 years old. Offensively they are not the team they were last year -- losing Murphy was devastating to them. Facing the Mets would be a dream.

As for the Cards, I don't particularly fear them. They have inconsistent starting pitching and offensively they can only hit homer's. They struggle to grind it out and manufacture runs. That is not a recipe for post season success. Could they beat us in a 5-game series? Yes, absolutely. I think we beat them 7 out 10 times in a best of five series. Forget the regular season - the odds are in our favor. But anything could happen.

San Fran is a little scarier to me. Cueto's MRI came back negative and he'll just have one start pushed back a little. With Madison and Cueto, they have the ability to shut us down. I don't believe The Shark will be able to shut us down, but if they can get Madison or Cueto twice against us -- they could take us out. Do I think it's likely? No - again, I think the odds are in our favor. But it's playoffs in baseball and anything could happen.

I truly believe if we advance past the NLDS, we're golden. We're too deep and complete of a team in all facets (offense, defense, starting pitching, bullpen, managing, etc) to get beaten. But man, it's the NLDS that keeps me up at night.

Here is how I would take the odds against the three most likely NLDS opponents:

Mets (80% chance we win).
STL (70% chance we win).
SFG (65% chance we win).

That's probably close but for SF Bumgarner would be burned in the WC game so Cueto would start game 1 and Samardzija game 2, considering that would be against Lester and Hendricks I'd like our chances. As for St. Louis you'd be facing Wainright in game 1 and Reyes in game 2. Now I fear Reyes but he is a rookie. The Mets you'd be facing Colon and probably Seth Lugo, who has been very good but, again, a rookie. I'd feel pretty confident against any of the three. Still small sample size is not our friend here but we should win any of these series handily.

 

[brett05]

Pop up is concidered a auto out too

With a pop-out I am thinking there is more runner advancement than a strikeout.