IST: Cubs vs. Reds

[TC in Mississippi]

With a pop-out I am thinking there is more runner advancement than a strikeout.

Of course there is. Anytime the ball is in the field of play, even if it's sky high in the air, there's a risk of baserunners advancing however small. A strikeout carries almost no risk and of course is a more preferable out.

 

[Diehardfan]

Of course there is. Anytime the ball is in the field of play, even if it's sky high in the air, there's a risk of baserunners advancing however small. A strikeout carries almost no risk and of course is a more preferable out.

Every ball is technically in play. I actually saw the Cubs lose a game on a dropped third strike...even K's are not completely safe.

 

[brett05]

Every ball is technically in play. I actually saw the Cubs lose a game on a dropped third strike...even K's are not completely safe.

Not 100% safe, but the safest of them all and most repeatable

 

[TL1961]

I don't understand your first paragraph at all. I'm sure it's me.

K's are a more valuable out than a ball in play. the chances of getting a run across is least with a K making the out more productive for the defense than a ball in play over the long haul, no?

Yes, K's wont result in runs, as fly ball outs and ground ball outs can.

Evaluating a prospect who gets a lot of K's, Ibwould agree that will help him allow fewer runs than a similar pitcher getting fewer K's

But at the end of the season, when time to vote Cy Young, we are already taking onto account the ACTUAL runs allowed, so the K should not be awarded value based on them allowing fewer runs.

 

[brett05]

Yes, K's wont result in runs, as fly ball outs and ground ball outs can.

Evaluating a prospect who gets a lot of K's, Ibwould agree that will help him allow fewer runs than a similar pitcher getting fewer K's

But at the end of the season, when time to vote Cy Young, we are already taking onto account the ACTUAL runs allowed, so the K should not be awarded value based on them allowing fewer runs.

But now you are at the mercy of other factors. Kershaw is great whether he has the Dodger defense, the Cubs defense, or the putrid Whitesox defense (which has been better, but still p.u.) Now Hendricks with the White Sox defense behind him makes him a lot worse. Why? because he doesn't k a ton which eliminates the defense.

 

[CSF77]

With a pop-out I am thinking there is more runner advancement than a strikeout.

Lower pitch counts

 

[CSF77]

I believe a pitcher has to depend on his D also. Going out there with the SO or bust mentality will run up pitch counts and turn the game into a BP game. I still have fresh memories of Woody running up his counts fast. Under Baker that meant 220 pitches with a crap MR then DL stints.

The strike out is sexy. But it comes with a price. Even Kershaw has a strong pop up line. So he has a method of getting quick outs.

I believe the right approach is to invest into D vs being above it and banking on the SO. As we are seeing Theo gets this fact. Sure there is a margins for error but he lessened it with some moves and ridding the team from sub performers.

 

[fatbeard]

But now you are at the mercy of other factors. Kershaw is great whether he has the Dodger defense, the Cubs defense, or the putrid Whitesox defense (which has been better, but still p.u.) Now Hendricks with the White Sox defense behind him makes him a lot worse. Why? because he doesn't k a ton which eliminates the defense.

It's a two-way street, though. Having a bad defense playing behind him makes any pitcher less effective, but elite weak-contact managers (like Hendricks and Arrieta) also make the defenses behind them look better.

 

[TL1961]

But now you are at the mercy of other factors. Kershaw is great whether he has the Dodger defense, the Cubs defense, or the putrid Whitesox defense (which has been better, but still p.u.) Now Hendricks with the White Sox defense behind him makes him a lot worse. Why? because he doesn't k a ton which eliminates the defense.

Agreed if I am choosing a pitcher in the draft or deciding who to pursue in FA.

But at the emd of the year, when awarding one of them, if Hendricks has a slightly better ERA than Kershaw, why would I penalize him for not having as many K's??

Because he could have given up more runs due to fewer K's?

But he DIDN'T. The final numbers are in.

On opening day, you may predict his K's will lead to a lower ERA, WHIP, etc. But Once you have their final WHIP, ERA etc to compare - which already takes into account that Kershaw's K's kept his runs from being as high as they might have been had those K's been fly balls- why would you then factor them into the equation?

The Results are final.

 

[brett05]

Lower pitch counts

That assumes the popout happens in the first two-three pitches of an at bat. Which again is very hard to induce.

 

[brett05]

Agreed if I am choosing a pitcher in the draft or deciding who to pursue in FA.

But at the emd of the year, when awarding one of them, if Hendricks has a slightly better ERA than Kershaw, why would I penalize him for not having as many K's??

Because he could have given up more runs due to fewer K's?

But he DIDN'T. The final numbers are in.

On opening day, you may predict his K's will lead to a lower ERA, WHIP, etc. But Once you have their final WHIP, ERA etc to compare - which already takes into account that Kershaw's K's kept his runs from being as high as they might have been had those K's been fly balls- why would you then factor them into the equation?

The Results are final.

And the strength of the defense allowed the numbers to be better than they probably are. And that's how you can say one pitcher is better than another.

 

[TL1961]

The nonstrikeout pitcher could have had a worse D!

And if my pitcher gets opposing batters to hit the ball where my defenders are, he's doing exactly what I want him to.

 

[brett05]

The nonstrikeout pitcher could have had a worse D!

And if my pitcher gets opposing batters to hit the ball where my defenders are, he's doing exactly what I want him to.

1) Pitching isn't that easy
2) Extremely rare that a non strikeout pitcher has great numbers with a poor defense.

 

[TL1961]

You are stuck on convincing us that it is better to get K's, because that makes it more likely to get better WHIP, ERA, etc. I agree!

But AFTER the season, awarding the guy with more K's EVEN WHEN HE HAS THE HIGHER WHIP AND ERA makes NO SENSE.

 

[anotheridiot]

I expect the cubs to have three in the top 5 splitting the vote and Scherzer ending up with the award with the sexy strike outs. I dont think that really wins the argument if only one cub starter had the numbers this year.

 

[CSF77]

I expect the cubs to have three in the top 5 splitting the vote and Scherzer ending up with the award with the sexy strike outs. I dont think that really wins the argument if only one cub starter had the numbers this year.

Lester right now has separated himself. Decent SO's. IP pushing 200. ERA near 2.30. 18-4 W-L is his stand out. Only Cueto is close there with 17-5 but his ERA is nearer to 2.80.

If you look at the over all it is Jon's award to lose.

 

[brett05]

Top five are Fernandez, Max, Thor, Cueto, though I could see Cueto out and then I would put Lester/Hendricks in one of those spots with a consideration to MadBum.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Top five are Fernandez, Max, Thor, Cueto, though I could see Cueto out and then I would put Lester/Hendricks in one of those spots with a consideration to MadBum.

I had a long conversation with a baseball writer acquaintance of mine yesterday and asked his opinions on all these guys. He thinks the writers are going to want to give it to Hendricks but he needs to show them one more dominant game. He said if he had gotten the no hitter it would be done already. He thinks there will be a strong faction that will want to give it to the Cubs, being that they are the best rotation in the league, and that if Hendricks doesn't pitch a dominant game and Lester does or even just a very good one that the faction will support him. He discounts Fernandez unless the Marlins make the playoffs and he mostly writes of Syndergaard for a perception that he isn't dominant enough and the fact that his last couple of starts have been pretty bad. He feels the surprise candidate could be Bumgarner who is currently being left out of discussions but has been very good for the most part while his team has been bad but if they go on a mini run and take the first WC by a couple of games that he's be right back in it. Then of course there is Scherzer. When I asked him push comes to shove who it would be he said Scherzer was the odds on favorite, Hendricks could beat him with a dominant game and Lester could do the same. One man's opinion but I pretty much agree although I think Syndergaard is getting hosed a little in the perception game.

 

[brett05]

I had a long conversation with a baseball writer acquaintance of mine yesterday and asked his opinions on all these guys. He thinks the writers are going to want to give it to Hendricks but he needs to show them one more dominant game. He said if he had gotten the no hitter it would be done already. He thinks there will be a strong faction that will want to give it to the Cubs, being that they are the best rotation in the league, and that if Hendricks doesn't pitch a dominant game and Lester does or even just a very good one that the faction will support him. He discounts Fernandez unless the Marlins make the playoffs and he mostly writes of Syndergaard for a perception that he isn't dominant enough and the fact that his last couple of starts have been pretty bad. He feels the surprise candidate could be Bumgarner who is currently being left out of discussions but has been very good for the most part while his team has been bad but if they go on a mini run and take the first WC by a couple of games that he's be right back in it. Then of course there is Scherzer. When I asked him push comes to shove who it would be he said Scherzer was the odds on favorite, Hendricks could beat him with a dominant game and Lester could do the same. One man's opinion but I pretty much agree although I think Syndergaard is getting hosed a little in the perception game.

So listening to Chicago Sports Radio Thursday Night, Dayn Perry was being interviewed and he believes there could be quite a bit of love for Kershaw still. I guess I wouldn't be surprised if there were two Cubs in the top five or zero. It's just that competitive this year in the NL.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Not 100% safe, but the safest of them all and most repeatable

They also lead to higher pitch counts and less defense behind the pitcher.