IST: Cubs vs. Reds

[fatbeard]

Regardless, my view is it's pointless to throw theoretically out. Judge pitchers based on what they do not based on "what if's."

Not an xFIP fan, eh?

 

[beckdawg]

Not an xFIP fan, eh?

I am fine with the concept of it. Obviously HR's disproportionally effect ERA. So, if you have a guy who's given up more HR's than usual you might suggest he's due for regression. My point was more that people are suggesting IP as being extremely relevant. To me it's not because the manager(and sometimes the front office) controls when a starter comes out of the game. You can't punish a guy for that because you don't know what outcome would occur if he were left in. And what pitcher ever wants to be pulled from a game? They all think they are good for another inning or two.

And even if you want to believe IP matter, I guess to me what's wrong with a guy giving you 6 good innings rather than 7? If you have a great bullpen and you get 6 innings out of a starter you're probably going to win. Each team has different situations to deal with and each game is different. If you're up 6 runs after the 6th inning do you really *need* the starter back out there? So on and so forth.

 

[CSF77]

You appear to be speaking tongues.

But I think you're suggesting that players won't vote for certain pitchers because they don't like them. And you don't think a lot of these air headed sportswriters don't do the same thing?

Not at all. If a hitter doesn't like facing a guy he would vote for him. Because he can't hit him more than other pitchers he deserves his vote.

That is why it should be viewed from a neutral source.

 

[CSF77]

I am fine with the concept of it. Obviously HR's disproportionally effect ERA. So, if you have a guy who's given up more HR's than usual you might suggest he's due for regression. My point was more that people are suggesting IP as being extremely relevant. To me it's not because the manager(and sometimes the front office) controls when a starter comes out of the game. You can't punish a guy for that because you don't know what outcome would occur if he were left in. And what pitcher ever wants to be pulled from a game? They all think they are good for another inning or two.

And even if you want to believe IP matter, I guess to me what's wrong with a guy giving you 6 good innings rather than 7? If you have a great bullpen and you get 6 innings out of a starter you're probably going to win. Each team has different situations to deal with and each game is different. If you're up 6 runs after the 6th inning do you really *need* the starter back out there? So on and so forth.

I'm really not a huge fan of FIP in general. It weighs heavy to strike outs vs using the D given to you. It is a 9 man game and FIP removes them.

To me it comes down to making outs as a pitcher. A out is a out regardless if it is a fly, grounder pop up or strike out. It just glorifies the strike out.

 

[SilenceS]

Zobrist with the bad D the past two nights.

 

[SilenceS]

Dont do that again Fowler!

 

[Diehardfan]

That be hard to do because every hit a certain pitcher that they hated and they would Vote him

/\
That may not be tongues but it sure as hell is gibberish. Try reading what you type and not what you're thinking.

 

[brett05]

Now you're just arguing semantics. The point is that some managers will let a starter go 110-120 pitches regularly. Maddon rarely lets even Lester or Arrieta go 110 and Hendricks has rarely gone above 100. Even the most efficient pitchers in the league are still going like 14-15 pitches an inning on average. So, there's a hard cap on innings based on that.

It's more than semantics, but I am not looking to rile you up and feel if I reply a rebuttal it will.

 

[brett05]

I'm really not a huge fan of FIP in general. It weighs heavy to strike outs vs using the D given to you. It is a 9 man game and FIP removes them.

To me it comes down to making outs as a pitcher. A out is a out regardless if it is a fly, grounder pop up or strike out. It just glorifies the strike out.

Not all outs are created equal. Some outs result is more help tot he offense than others.

 

[chibears55]

Sloooooowwwwwwww game

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

 

[Diehardfan]

Sloooooowwwwwwww game

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

It's that fabulous Reds pitching. Somewhere around 150 pitches in 6 innings.

 

[SilenceS]

The Giants, Cards, and Mets all playing like they dont want to get in the post season.

 

[A.C. Milan]

99 RBI for Kobe

 

[Omeletpants]

Pile on bitches

 

[ChicagoBornCalifLiving]

Hoping there is a three way tie for the Wild Card. Between the traveling and the pitchers needed the Cubs would be in good shape in the first round.

 

[TL1961]

Not all outs are created equal. Some outs result is more help tot he offense than others.

But that is already factored in elsewhere.

If I allow a sac fly while you strike out a batter, and get more credit for the K, I get penalized twice.

 

[TL1961]

Hoping there is a three way tie for the Wild Card. Between the traveling and the pitchers needed the Cubs would be in good shape in the first round.

Funny thing is, the tie keeps them from setting up their ace in a wc game, so we are actually more likely to see their ace.

But they may use a lot of relief pitchers.

 

[A.C. Milan]

Hoping there is a three way tie for the Wild Card. Between the traveling and the pitchers needed the Cubs would be in good shape in the first round.

I'm rooting for the Mets to get in, the Giants are stronger than the birds but i hope the Cardinals don't make the postseason

 

[beckdawg]

It's more than semantics, but I am not looking to rile you up and feel if I reply a rebuttal it will.

Appreciate the attempt and all. But if you don't think what you said was semantics then we're arguing separate things and I don't understand what you're going for. The point I was making is no matter who the pitcher is, they don't control when they get pulled from a game. You can argue that quality starters throw fewer pitches and go deeper into games but that's not really the case. ESPN actually tracks this. In the case of Hendricks, he's throwing on average 15.1 pitches per inning(12th overall) where the best in the league is Ivan Nova at 14.3.

For the sake of argument, if you put a hard limit of 100 pitches on any player the theoretical best you can do is around 14 pitches per inning or slightly over 7 innings(but less than 7.1 IP). A lot of teams are going to put a hard cap of 100 pitches on any young pitcher. That's just the world we live in now with young starters blowing out their arms. In the case of Hendricks, he's gone over 100 pitches these times

May 11 vs SD(102 pitches)
May 28 vs PHI(104 pitches)
Jun 2 vs LAD(101 pitches)
Jun 24 @MIA(105 pitches)
Jun 29 @CIN(117 pitches)
Aug 1 vs MIA(123 pitches)

He has 4 more games right at 100 pitches but clearly his hard limit is right around 100. FWIW, the Jun 29th game was the night after the 15 inning game in Cincy where the cubs used Lester(7.2), Rondon(1.1), Grimm(1.0), Edwards(1.0), Cahill(1.1), Peralta(0.2), Patton(0.2) and Wood(1.1). The Aug 1 game was the night after that insane 12 inning game vs Seattle that Matsuz started where he went 3 IP, Edwards(2.0), Nathan(0 IP but 10 pitches), Wood(1.1), Strop(1.2), Montgomery(1.0), Chapman(1.0), and Rondon(2.0). Also for what it's worth, that 29th game where he threw 117 pitches he gave up 2 ER over 6.2(both runs were in the 4th) and the Aug 1 game where he threw 123 he gave up 0 ER over 9 innings. That goes back to my point that we don't know a starter will be bad if you extend the number of pitches they throw.

That's largely why I think IP is a rather useless way to measure pitching. In fact, honestly I'd argue Kershaw still deserves the Cy Young from a performance stand point. He's a little different because it's injury rather than being pulled but I care more about the quality of when you are in the game rather than hypothetically what you would have done with another inning a start.

 

[TL1961]

The Giants, Cards, and Mets all playing like they dont want to get in the post season.

Cards are poor fundamentally, their fans want the manager fired, their fans are questioning their gm.....they haven't enjoyed a minute of the season. In other words, it has Cards WS win written all over it.