IST: Cubs vs Rockies

[Globetrotter]

I can't help but think that if Baez makes a routine catch and tag to get Walters stretching that whole inning plays out differently.

There ya go Russell.

 

[PickSix]

Ok Dancing Bullpen, let's see what ya got. Need it.

 

[chibears55]

Nice win...

Still relying too much on homers to score runs ..
6 of 7 scored via Hrs

Arrieta looked good for 4 then sucked ass..

Bullpen did good...


Hope this don't happen
But
If by deadline things are looking bleak..
Have to think Davis could be on the block..
Have to think they probably could get back more then they gave up for Chapman rental..

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[TL1961]

I can't see the Cubs being sellers at the trade deadline unless something really terrible happens between now and July 31.

How far could they be out at July 31? And nobody in this division is running away, except maybe the Cubs.

 

[CSF77]

I can't see the Cubs being sellers at the trade deadline unless something really terrible happens between now and July 31.

How far could they be out at July 31? And nobody in this division is running away, except maybe the Cubs.

I'm thinking they go 10-8 rest of June. July til the break is weak teams.

The hardest series is 4 vs Was. I put that series as a swept. 4 vsMIA 3-1. 3 games series 2-1 in general. So there is no reason why they shouldn't be at 45-43. That should be their realist record at the ASG. that record will dictate. And we are talking a easy walk. After the ASG comes the sledge hammer. They can't win up to that point....

 

[chibears55]

I can't see the Cubs being sellers at the trade deadline unless something really terrible happens between now and July 31.

How far could they be out at July 31? And nobody in this division is running away, except maybe the Cubs.

42 games left til deadline..
28 games on Road..
17 of next 20 on Road , which could determine what they do before deadline..

Being in a crappy division this year is only thing keeping them afloat for a playoff spot..
but as it looks right now, unless they make a major buy an add to SP..
this rotation might be good enough to keep them hovering at .500 but they'll get killed in a playoff series..

These hitters are all going to need to turn it on..

My thinking right now is..
These next 30 games, depending where their at.
Management needs to decide whether to make that big trade for SP and another WS push or start retooling for 2018 and move guys that probably won't be around in 2018..
Montero, Baez or Russell, Schwarber, Jay, Arrieta, Lackey, Davis, Rondon..........

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[Ari Bear]

Nice to see Addison finally do something with the bat! He's been awful this year. This team though seems to score mostly with the homerun they need to manufacture runs also. Thats something they have struggled with this season. Glad they avoided the sweep. Lets hope the offense gets going. Off to NY to play the Mets.

 

[beckdawg]

Are people seriously discussing selling for a team 1 back of the division lead? Here's a fun fact, the 2006 cardinals were 83-78 and won a world series. Record doesn't matter. What matters is playing well enough to get to the playoffs. It's an entirely different beast then and I'd argue with the cubs bullpen being this good they are a better playoff team than a regular season team especially if the guys who aren't playing to their ability come around late in the year. I'd argue the cubs bullpen is deeper and as good quality wise as Clevelands was last year.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Are people seriously discussing selling for a team 1 back of the division lead? Here's a fun fact, the 2006 cardinals were 83-78 and won a world series. Record doesn't matter. What matters is playing well enough to get to the playoffs. It's an entirely different beast then and I'd argue with the cubs bullpen being this good they are a better playoff team than a regular season team especially if the guys who aren't playing to their ability come around late in the year. I'd argue the cubs bullpen is deeper and as good quality wise as Clevelands was last year.

Yeah, any talk of selling is ridiculous.

 

[CSF77]

We were saying that the ASG is when teams make a decision if they are in the hunt or not.

Theo has said that the focus for most teams is the draft right now. After the draft the landscape shapes up and the buyers and sellers start to make their moves.

To fix this ship they need a lead off. Then they need a SP.

And to be frank they need to cut Lackey. Let Montgomery start and then trade for a 2 inning guy to replace him.

So that is 3 guys that they need and that doesn't fix how this team is miss firing this year. The majority of the rotation is out of wack.

I haven't seen anything that shows me that a quick fix like a trade makes everything better. That is only found in fairy tales. The team needs to turn over 2 starters at min. Stabilize the long relief and get a legit lead off. I don't see that happening externally. The majority will happen internally when these players fully develop.

Unfortunately time is not for sale on the market.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

We were saying that the ASG is when teams make a decision if they are in the hunt or not.

Theo has said that the focus for most teams is the draft right now. After the draft the landscape shapes up and the buyers and sellers start to make their moves.

To fix this ship they need a lead off. Then they need a SP.

And to be frank they need to cut Lackey. Let Montgomery start and then trade for a 2 inning guy to replace him.

So that is 3 guys that they need and that doesn't fix how this team is miss firing this year. The majority of the rotation is out of wack.

I haven't seen anything that shows me that a quick fix like a trade makes everything better. That is only found in fairy tales. The team needs to turn over 2 starters at min. Stabilize the long relief and get a legit lead off. I don't see that happening externally. The majority will happen internally when these players fully develop.

Unfortunately time is not for sale on the market.

I don't think this is a championship team, maybe that's stating the obvious, so I think any deals have to help short and long term. I do think this team wins the division mostly because I think St. Louis is the same type of inconsistent team with less talent and that Milwaukee, while probably in it to the end, likely can't fix their pitching enough to win it. While I probably agree with you on a leadoff hitter, I don't think Maddon and the FO think that's as important as we do. Lackey is bad but he works as a 5. The bullpen is one of the best in the game. Bring in Sonny Gray (as an example) and this is a better team. Nothing makes this team a champion this year outside of the kind of blind luck that happens in the playoffs quite often.

 

[CSF77]

I don't think this is a championship team, maybe that's stating the obvious, so I think any deals have to help short and long term. I do think this team wins the division mostly because I think St. Louis is the same type of inconsistent team with less talent and that Milwaukee, while probably in it to the end, likely can't fix their pitching enough to win it. While I probably agree with you on a leadoff hitter, I don't think Maddon and the FO think that's as important as we do. Lackey is bad but he works as a 5. The bullpen is one of the best in the game. Bring in Sonny Gray (as an example) and this is a better team. Nothing makes this team a champion this year outside of the kind of blind luck that happens in the playoffs quite often.

I believe if they bring any player in it has to be with a vision of 2018 vs saving 2017. That would be gravy. That is where the fan base needs to stop with the panic button. There are bigger fish to fry and right now is the time to start that process.

That is why I am fine with the Happ/Schwarber experiment. I get it winning last year has made the base go into panic mode but there are transitions that they need to go through. If they were in win first mode then they would have extended Fowler and traded Almora and Happ.

 

[chibears55]

Are people seriously discussing selling for a team 1 back of the division lead? Here's a fun fact, the 2006 cardinals were 83-78 and won a world series. Record doesn't matter. What matters is playing well enough to get to the playoffs. It's an entirely different beast then and I'd argue with the cubs bullpen being this good they are a better playoff team than a regular season team especially if the guys who aren't playing to their ability come around late in the year. I'd argue the cubs bullpen is deeper and as good quality wise as Clevelands was last year.

Here my question...

Unless there a major upgrade in rotation via deadline trade, which would require moving some top players..

How much confidence do you have in this rotation as is to get hot and win at least 3 or 4 times through the rotation to pull ahead in division..

Then..

If they do win division

How much confidence do you have with this rotation as is..

To beat the Rockies Nationals Dodgers Diamondback in a 7 game series..


Then you have the hitters....

Sure these guys are all talented and very good hitters..

The problem is that it not just 1 or 2 struggling, it's pretty much the whole offense..
Sure some are going to break out of it, question is how many and will it be enough and or too late ..


So, as we mentioned above..

Come AS break , depending on where their at ( not hovering. 500 and a couple games up or down because division sucks) and if the rotation and hitting are improving..

Epstein has to decide whether to make a major trade or two and add on to win this year..
Or
Move some of the guys that their not planning on having back in 2018 and retool for 2018..





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[TC in Mississippi]

Here my question...

Unless there a major upgrade in rotation via deadline trade, which would require moving some top players..

How much confidence do you have in this rotation as is to get hot and win at least 3 or 4 times through the rotation to pull ahead in division..

Then..

If they do win division

How much confidence do you have with this rotation as is..

To beat the Rockies Nationals Dodgers Diamondback in a 7 game series.

OK, the problem here is that you start with a statement and then throw a bunch of other stuff there. I don't love this pitching staff overall but I do have confidence in Lester and Hendricks to pitch much better going forward. If you watch them pitch the stuff that made them great pitchers is there but both have struggled with the long ball. That might continue but history tells us it won't. So I'm Ok with those guys. Jake Arrieta has pitched to a 3.51 ERA in his last 6 starts. He seems to be mostly OK. After that it gets murky. Lackey is a #5 starter at this point and he would be OK there, sadly they need him to be a #4. I think between Butler and Montgomery there's a 5th starter there too. Ideally this guy needs a 2/3 type. Given the nature of this team they're probably not going for a straight up rental but, to name two names, Sonny Gray and Matt Harvey are out there and have 2.5 and 1.5 years left of control respectively. Could one of those guys be the answer? Conceivably yes. Harvey needs a change of scenery and could possibly function better in a new environment and Gray is pitching very well in the AL with his best FIP, K/9 and BB/9 since 2013. With the glut of pitching on the market these guys probably won't be prohibitive in cost. Are you telling me, for instance, that you wouldn't feel pretty good with Lester, Gray, Hendricks and Arrieta as your playoff rotation? I sure would and to a lesser degree plugging Harvey in their too.

Then you have the hitters....

Sure these guys are all talented and very good hitters..

The problem is that it not just 1 or 2 struggling, it's pretty much the whole offense..
Sure some are going to break out of it, question is how many and will it be enough and or too late ..

Yes the offense has been anemic but it's not all the hitters. Kris Bryant is having virtually the same season that won him an MVP last year. His OPS of .930 is just slightly off his .939 of last year a mark that is more than achievable for the entire season. His K rate is down, his walk rate is up and he's on pace to hit 38.7 HR. Guess how many he hit last year? Yeah, it was 39. Rizzo has raised his OPS 100 points in a month and while he's still not quite where you'd like him to be the difference is mostly in extra base hits. While he might not get his SLG up 80 points to match last year I bet he ends up with in 25 points of his OPS from 2016. Neither Baez nor Hayward are offensive liabilities. You'd like some improvement and I'm pretty sure we'll see that. If 2 of Russell, Schwarber, Happ or Contreras get hot this offense will be a lot better in the last 100 games than it was in the previous 62.

So, as we mentioned above..

Come AS break , depending on where their at ( not hovering. 500 and a couple games up or down because division sucks) and if the rotation and hitting are improving..

Epstein has to decide whether to make a major trade or two and add on to win this year..
Or
Move some of the guys that their not planning on having back in 2018 and retool for 2018..

First, I don't think there is any scenario where this team is a seller. Conservatively I expect them to be 5-7 games over .500 at the All Star Break with Milwaukee as the only real competition in the Division. St. Louis is similarly inconsistent to the Cubs but different in that they have nowhere near the talent level. The Reds and Pirates have no chance. Even Milwaukee is a longshot because they probably won't make any real moves to improve. As of today, per Fangraphs, the Cubs still have a 77% chance at winning the Division and I fully expect them to do so. The other thing is the pieces the Cubs would potentially have to move won't be worht much at the deadline. Montero and Jay won't get you anything at all, 2 months of Arrieta isn't going to be attractive in a flooded pitching market and no contending WS team is trading a closer the caliber of Wade Davis if a Division title is in reach of which there is almost zero chance it won't be.

Look, I get it. This has not been a fun team to watch especially after last year but the Division they are in is affording them some slack that they wouldn't have in the much tougher East and West. They aren't a horrible ballclub they're a mediocre one and even there one with upside. Relax and stop worrying about whether they'll be buyers or seller. It's pretty likely they'll be buyers even if they aim is as much part of the 2018 equation as it is the 2017.

 

[TL1961]

Are people seriously discussing selling for a team 1 back of the division lead? Here's a fun fact, the 2006 cardinals were 83-78 and won a world series. Record doesn't matter. What matters is playing well enough to get to the playoffs. It's an entirely different beast then and I'd argue with the cubs bullpen being this good they are a better playoff team than a regular season team especially if the guys who aren't playing to their ability come around late in the year. I'd argue the cubs bullpen is deeper and as good quality wise as Clevelands was last year.

Theo and Jed stated very clearly a few years back that they want a team that can contend for a playoff spot every year, because getting there often gives you the best shot at a title. Setting up what seems best on paper is no guarantee.

Cards 2006 team is perfect example. Exactly as you said: No telling who can win it, but you have to get in. Now, nobody wants to aim for the level cards were at that year, as that is the worst team to win a WS in my lifetime. But get in. And font throw away chances to do so.

 

[TL1961]

Here my question...

Unless there a major upgrade in rotation via deadline trade, which would require moving some top players..

How much confidence do you have in this rotation as is to get hot and win at least 3 or 4 times through the rotation to pull ahead in division..

Then..

If they do win division

How much confidence do you have with this rotation as is..

To beat the Rockies Nationals Dodgers Diamondback in a 7 game series..


Then you have the hitters....

Sure these guys are all talented and very good hitters..

The problem is that it not just 1 or 2 struggling, it's pretty much the whole offense..
Sure some are going to break out of it, question is how many and will it be enough and or too late ..


So, as we mentioned above..

Come AS break , depending on where their at ( not hovering. 500 and a couple games up or down because division sucks) and if the rotation and hitting are improving..

Epstein has to decide whether to make a major trade or two and add on to win this year..
Or
Move some of the guys that their not planning on having back in 2018 and retool for 2018..





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I will be more than just a little shocked if they trade , as you suggest, Baez or Russell plus Schwarber plus Wade Davis.

No way.

 

[beckdawg]

Here my question...

Unless there a major upgrade in rotation via deadline trade, which would require moving some top players..

How much confidence do you have in this rotation as is to get hot and win at least 3 or 4 times through the rotation to pull ahead in division..

Well A) I imagine they plan to make a major trade for a starter and B) why the negativity on the rotation? Like I get the 5th slot is some what of a tire fire unless Butler becomes more consistent but you have to assume the cubs will look to trade for a starter which makes that moot. As for the rest, their underlying numbers aren't really that much different than last year. Lester is actually striking out more. He's walking about .75 per more 9 which isn't amazing but he's not been "bad" just average. He's been hurt by those walks, a higher than average BABIP(.324) and a lower than average strand rate(71.1% where his career rate is 75%). Arrieta is actually striking out more people(+1.1 per 9) and walking fewer people(-.6 per 9). His problem has been an extremely low strand rate(65.4% vs a career rate of 71.4% and compared to last year at 74.9%). His HR/FB rate of 15.3% is up about 5% off his career average. Hendricks is walking more batters and has an elevated HR/FB rate of 17.6% vs his 9.3% rate last year. Lackey is striking out more batters and walking people at a similar rate but he too has been hit hard by HR/FB rate of 20.5% vs 12.9%.

Long story short here these are things you would expect to regress typically. Generally speaking a high k rate with a walk rate 3 or under is a good sign for pitchers. As of today the cubs have Arrieta(#16 at 9.74 with a 2.84 bb/9), Lackey(#18 9.21 and 2.69), Lester(#22 8.96 and 3.18), and Hendricks(Hasn't pitched qualified innings but he'd be around #47 with 7.44 and 3.06). Obviously Hendricks is a fair bit off where you'd like to see him but the other 3 have largely pitched well with what appears to be sequencing issues. That is to say they are giving up hits and HRs at unfortunate times that are doing more damage than you would otherwise expect on average.

As I said, they really aren't playing that poorly. As an example of what I'm talking about here, compare Arrieta and Yu Darvish who many would consider a major trade target. their numbers are fairly similar on HR/FB, k and bb per 9. The difference is Darvish has a 84.8% strand rate while Arrieta has 65.4% giving Darvish a 3.18 ERA compared to Arrieta's 4.68. If there's anything i'm worried about with regard to the pitching it's largely what Hendricks will be. The other three have walk and k rates that support high end starter. Hendricks' rates this year aren't "bad" exactly but you really want an 8ish k/9 with where his walk rate should be and his walk rate is up considerably making him obviously less effective. But, if he's your #4 starter or #5 if you trade for someone better he's hardly a terrible guy and the upside is obviously still there.

 

[CSF77]

Lackey is striking out more batters and walking people at a similar rate but he too has been hit hard by HR/FB rate of 20.5% vs 12.9%.

Rating HR/FB
Excellent 5.0%
Great 7.0%
Above Average 8.5%
Average 9.5%
Below Average 10.5%
Poor 11.5%
Awful 13.0%

It was awful to begin with. He is past his prime IMO. He goes after the hitters if his command is there or not just because he is hard headed. Instead of adjusting himself to his current abilities he would rather keep on doing what he has been with no regard to outside factors.

I'm not a fan of the guy and I can't wait for retirement. Sure he will be on here and there but the back side will be worse.

Lester I believe is missing Ross. I kinda expected a regression with him while he was getting in sync with Contreras.

Hendricks....IDK, his talent is meh and this year is reflecting it. He has to be perfect to perform like last year. #5 is fair.

Arrieta IDK either. He was working with Montrero last game and got hammered later game. So it could be a hot team issue and the Cubs finally gave room for error.

Butler is a stop gap, nothing more.

Montgomery should have been given the #4 and then they should have focused on MR vs all of these trash can SP depth. Butler is borderline. Anderson was a huge risk going in. Mills the jury is out. He still may end up something.

 

[beckdawg]

Lackey is striking out more batters and walking people at a similar rate but he too has been hit hard by HR/FB rate of 20.5% vs 12.9%.

Rating HR/FB
Excellent 5.0%
Great 7.0%
Above Average 8.5%
Average 9.5%
Below Average 10.5%
Poor 11.5%
Awful 13.0%

It was awful to begin with. He is past his prime IMO. He goes after the hitters if his command is there or not just because he is hard headed. Instead of adjusting himself to his current abilities he would rather keep on doing what he has been with no regard to outside factors.

This isn't at all accurate. Right now the average among starters is 14.1%. There are only 15 starters in the league who have a HR/FB under 10% and only 26 who are under 11.5% which is your second to last "tier." I also don't buy your belief that he's old and washed up. If he were old and washed up he wouldn't have a swinging strike rate of 11.2% which is 21st best in the league. People can believe what they want but the numbers scream someone who's pitched well overall but made a few mistakes/was unlucky.

 

[CSF77]

That came right off Fangraphs website