IST: Cubs @ Washington

[PickSix]

Did Miggy's plane out of town take off yet? Any chance we can get Lackey a seat right next to him?

 

[CSF77]

I was saying this earlier. Good enough to soak innings. Good enough to win 50%. Not good enough to be on a championship team. You can say that about both him and Jake.

I don't know about the fold crud. But they need a SP upgrade. With Kyle out until after the break it makes sense to replace Butler now then when Kyle returns DFA Lackey.

 

[chibears55]

I was saying this earlier. Good enough to soak innings. Good enough to win 50%. Not good enough to be on a championship team. You can say that about both him and Jake.

I don't know about the fold crud. But they need a SP upgrade. With Kyle out until after the break it makes sense to replace Butler now then when Kyle returns DFA Lackey.

Their not winning anything with this rotation and their not going to get anyone of significant to right the rotation without giving up top prospects or players on 25..

Sonny Gray not going to be the difference in rotation as long as Lackey and Arrieta there..

Montgomery and Butler not going to get starts if they add a starter and Arrieta and Lackey still there..

The way the offense is going this year along with the pitching, even if they squeak by the Brewers for the Division.. just don't see them beating Dodgers Nationals in Playoffs and probably have hard time against Dbacks and Rockies..

So, might as well start retooling this team for 2018..

DFA Lackey

Go after whichever SP you want and can get in Quintana Archer or Gray..

Use Arrieta Russell Schwarber Jay Zobrist as trade bait for one of those pitchers and or other pitchers..

Play Almora CF Happ 2B Baez SS everyday

Have Caratini start and catch 1 guy every 5th day, get him ready for next year..

Leave Montgomery and Butler in rotation and see if or how they progress..

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[TL1961]

Cubs need to fold this season..
Everything that can go wrong is going wrong..
Now Bryant probably out a couple weeks..

Just unload whoever not going to be part of 2018 like lackey and Arrieta..
See of they can get anything for Zobrist, some contender probably takes him..

Play Almora and Happ everyday..



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They need to give up, 1 1/2 games out in June?!

 

[CSF77]

Their not winning anything with this rotation and their not going to get anyone of significant to right the rotation without giving up top prospects or players on 25..

Sonny Gray not going to be the difference in rotation as long as Lackey and Arrieta there..

Montgomery and Butler not going to get starts if they add a starter and Arrieta and Lackey still there..

The way the offense is going this year along with the pitching, even if they squeak by the Brewers for the Division.. just don't see them beating Dodgers Nationals in Playoffs and probably have hard time against Dbacks and Rockies..

So, might as well start retooling this team for 2018..

DFA Lackey

Go after whichever SP you want and can get in Quintana Archer or Gray..

Use Arrieta Russell Schwarber Jay Zobrist as trade bait for one of those pitchers and or other pitchers..

Play Almora CF Happ 2B Baez SS everyday

Have Caratini start and catch 1 guy every 5th day, get him ready for next year..

Leave Montgomery and Butler in rotation and see if or how they progress..

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Butler is a 4-5 inning pitcher.
Lackey will give 5-6 but you never know.

Honestly I'm thinking that Lackey was syncing with Montero. Not with Contreras. It might improve with time. It makes sense to DFA but they won't do it unless he shoots off his mouth.

 

[TL1961]

Their not winning anything with this rotation and their not going to get anyone of significant to right the rotation without giving up top prospects or players on 25..

Sonny Gray not going to be the difference in rotation as long as Lackey and Arrieta there..

Montgomery and Butler not going to get starts if they add a starter and Arrieta and Lackey still there..

The way the offense is going this year along with the pitching, even if they squeak by the Brewers for the Division.. just don't see them beating Dodgers Nationals in Playoffs and probably have hard time against Dbacks and Rockies..

So, might as well start retooling this team for 2018..

DFA Lackey

Go after whichever SP you want and can get in Quintana Archer or Gray..

Use Arrieta Russell Schwarber Jay Zobrist as trade bait for one of those pitchers and or other pitchers..

Play Almora CF Happ 2B Baez SS everyday

Have Caratini start and catch 1 guy every 5th day, get him ready for next year..

Leave Montgomery and Butler in rotation and see if or how they progress..

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You say they can't get pitching, then propose to trade Russell and Arrieta and more for pitching.

Good defensive SS who is very young, and we want to rid ourselves of him so we can play Happ at 2nd? Insane.

What noncontender will trade for Arrieta who is a FA at the end of the season?
What contender gives up starting pitching to get him?

You completely change your position from the start of the post to the end!

The season is not over because you trail the Brewers by a game or two in June! Tear it down? WTF?

Are we trading Jay to a team that passed on him as FA when it cost no prospects?

Give up on Schwarber? He is written off, but Happ is a sure thing?

Play the catcher with the bad D? Why?

What are you even proposing? You are all over the board?

 

[chibears55]

You say they can't get pitching, then propose to trade Russell and Arrieta and more for pitching.

Good defensive SS who is very young, and we want to rid ourselves of him so we can play Happ at 2nd? Insane.

What noncontender will trade for Arrieta who is a FA at the end of the season?
What contender gives up starting pitching to get him?

You completely change your position from the start of the post to the end!

The season is not over because you trail the Brewers by a game or two in June! Tear it down? WTF?

Are we trading Jay to a team that passed on him as FA when it cost no prospects?

Give up on Schwarber? He is written off, but Happ is a sure thing?

Play the catcher with the bad D? Why?

What are you even proposing? You are all over the board?

I said their not gonna get a top starter without trading away a top prospect or someone off the 25..
Russell Schwarber


Rather just play Baez at SS who much better defensively..
They seem to really like Happ who will probably be a better hitter then Russell , might as well play him everyday at 2B....

Plenty of teams will trade a minor leaguer for a rental in Arrieta who could upgrade their 4th spot in rotation..

I said even if they squeak by the Brewers for division, they won't beat the Dodgers Nationals in Playoffs and probably have hard time against Dbacks and Rockies...


After they seen him hitting over .300 , you're damn straight a playoff team would love his lefty bat on bench..

Happ has 1.2 War already and he's on rise...
IMO Schwarber going to be nothing more then a defensive liability, and a low Average hitter who will hit the occasional bombs ...

Same thing was said about Contreras and his defense when he came up.
Caratini can hit and he a SH, if their plan is too have him as a back up next year, might as well start him once through the rotation now and see how he handles it..



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[beckdawg]

Rather just play Baez at SS who much better defensively.

Baez may be flashier but i wouldn't say he's "much better" or even better. Russell at SS on his career has a 14.8 UZR/150 and is +40 DRS. Baez at SS is -0.2 on his career and 0 DRS.

 

[CSF77]

A few losses and the boat is sinking.

 

[Goose22]

The Cubs need to reassign Lackey as BP pitcher...maybe he can get the bats rolling for the Cubs, just like he has every team he has faced this year.

 

[Ari Bear]

Butler is a 4-5 inning pitcher.
Lackey will give 5-6 but you never know.

Yeah but Lackey will also give 3hr's in those 5-6.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I said their not gonna get a top starter without trading away a top prospect or someone off the 25..
Russell Schwarber


Rather just play Baez at SS who much better defensively..
They seem to really like Happ who will probably be a better hitter then Russell , might as well play him everyday at 2B....

Plenty of teams will trade a minor leaguer for a rental in Arrieta who could upgrade their 4th spot in rotation..

I said even if they squeak by the Brewers for division, they won't beat the Dodgers Nationals in Playoffs and probably have hard time against Dbacks and Rockies...


After they seen him hitting over .300 , you're damn straight a playoff team would love his lefty bat on bench..

Happ has 1.2 War already and he's on rise...
IMO Schwarber going to be nothing more then a defensive liability, and a low Average hitter who will hit the occasional bombs ...

Same thing was said about Contreras and his defense when he came up.
Caratini can hit and he a SH, if their plan is too have him as a back up next year, might as well start him once through the rotation now and see how he handles it..



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Stop trying to project who they can or can't beat in the playoffs. You have no idea what any team will look like then. The goal every year is to make the playoffs and while this year clearly doesn't look like our year you're not going to be a seller if your within 4-5 games in the division. That's not how baseball works. If Bryant had torn up the ligaments in his ankle you might be a step closer to that but he didn't and they aren't. Frankly this season might never be that much fun to watch and the fits and starts might last the whole year. They're not the first WS title defender to have a season go like this and they won't be the last. It's baseball. Oh, and as beckdawg points out the stats do not bear out your claim that Javy is a "much better" defender. He has a different skill set, and the range is a bit better but range is less important than it was 30 years ago. Russell has struggled with the bat but outside of some errant throws earlier on he's the better SS and you're a better team with him at SS and Baez at 2B, than Javy and any other 2B choice.

 

[TL1961]

The Cubs need to reassign Lackey as BP pitcher...maybe he can get the bats rolling for the Cubs, just like he has every team he has faced this year.

Taking a starter who allows runs in the first inning every outing, and moving him to the pen does not help.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Taking a starter who allows runs in the first inning every outing, and moving him to the pen does not help.

I think he meant batting practice

 

[chibears55]

Baez may be flashier but i wouldn't say he's "much better" or even better. Russell at SS on his career has a 14.8 UZR/150 and is +40 DRS. Baez at SS is -0.2 on his career and 0 DRS.

I'm not downplaying Russell defense...
just think overall Baez would get to more balls then Russell , and has a stronger accurate arm then him..

I would much rather see Baez at SS everyday then Russell....
Not that I don't like Russell, just my choice between the two..

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[chibears55]

A few losses and the boat is sinking.

A few losses???
They've been playing mediocre .500 baseball for almost half a season now.

Nothing as of today looks like it's going to improve from that

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[chibears55]

Butler is a 4-5 inning pitcher.
Lackey will give 5-6 but you never know.

Honestly I'm thinking that Lackey was syncing with Montero. Not with Contreras. It might improve with time. It makes sense to DFA but they won't do it unless he shoots off his mouth.

Lackey averaging 5-6 IP now because after he gives up a bunch of runs early, Maddon just sticks with him as long as possible so he doesn't have to burn up pen early..
Like yesterday for example

Plus having 2-4 guys in rotation that can only go 5+ on average ( Montgomery Butler Lackey Arrieta) is killing the pen..

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[chibears55]

Stop trying to project who they can or can't beat in the playoffs. You have no idea what any team will look like then. The goal every year is to make the playoffs and while this year clearly doesn't look like our year you're not going to be a seller if your within 4-5 games in the division. That's not how baseball works. If Bryant had torn up the ligaments in his ankle you might be a step closer to that but he didn't and they aren't. Frankly this season might never be that much fun to watch and the fits and starts might last the whole year. They're not the first WS title defender to have a season go like this and they won't be the last. It's baseball. Oh, and as beckdawg points out the stats do not bear out your claim that Javy is a "much better" defender. He has a different skill set, and the range is a bit better but range is less important than it was 30 years ago. Russell has struggled with the bat but outside of some errant throws earlier on he's the better SS and you're a better team with him at SS and Baez at 2B, than Javy and any other 2B choice.

Lol so we're not allowed to give our thoughts and opinions ???

I've always said, unless there major changes with rotation and the offense figures it out, their not gonna beat Dodgers or Nationals in a 7 game series with their rotation and offense..
Hell they struggled against much weaker teams and pitching so far..

I think it's all going to depend where their at and how they play out of the break as far as what kind of moves they make before deadline..



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[beckdawg]

I'm not downplaying Russell defense...
just think overall Baez would get to more balls then Russell , and has a stronger accurate arm then him..

I would much rather see Baez at SS everyday then Russell....
Not that I don't like Russell, just my choice between the two..

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Stats don't really bare that out. Russell in 2253 innings has a RZR of .848 which is essentially the number of balls in your "zone" you get to. That's 485 out of 572. He made 136 plays out of his zone. Baez over 664 innings has a RZR of .789 which is 138 out of 175 and made 33 out of zone. If you prorate Baez over a similar number of innings he'd make roughly 120 plays on balls out of his zone and obviously the rate in zone isn't as good as Russell.

Baez does have a better arm but Russell's release is so quick it's arguably just as good. The thing is Russell makes basically every routine play. Last year among SS he had the highest RZR in the majors. In 2015 he only played 471.1 innings but he would have been #2 if he qualified at .826 behind Adeiny Hechavarria who was .833. This year he's #2 behind Jose Iglesias .858 to .823.

Baez like so much about his game is very polarizing. He can make sensational plays and then flub routine ones. Maddon has basically said as much himself when talking about Baez saying he has a lot of "chrome" in his game and mentioned Russell being "boring" in a good way.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Lol so we're not allowed to give our thoughts and opinions ???

I've always said, unless there major changes with rotation and the offense figures it out, their not gonna beat Dodgers or Nationals in a 7 game series with their rotation and offense..
Hell they struggled against much weaker teams and pitching so far..

I think it's all going to depend where their at and how they play out of the break as far as what kind of moves they make before deadline..



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Of course you're allowed your opinions. My only issue with your posts is that your opinions are rarely backed up with meaningful stats and some things that are obvious you don't agree with. This team is going to win the division barring the unforeseen. If Bryant had torn ligaments yesterday we'd be closer to that outcome but fortunately we're not. Of course the negative to that is that it's a godawful division and the Cubs will win by default. Fangraphs give the Cubs a 78.1% chance to win the division with Milwaukee at 5.8 and St. Louis at 12.4. There is no team on God's green earth that's thinking about being a seller, on June 29 with 78.1% chance of winning their division so that kind of talk goes against how the baseball works. The only example of a team anywhere near .500 being a seller is the 1997 White Sox "white flag" trade when they were 1 game under and they were widely criticized for it. Hasn't happened since and isn't likely to in the 2 WC era. Also this team is in the middle of a 5-7 year contention window so they will take every single playoff chance they get.