IST: Cubs @ Washington

[brett05]

Of course you're allowed your opinions. My only issue with your posts is that your opinions are rarely backed up with meaningful stats and some things that are obvious you don't agree with. This team is going to win the division barring the unforeseen. If Bryant had torn ligaments yesterday we'd be closer to that outcome but fortunately we not. Of course the negative to that is that it's a godawful division and the Cubs will by default. Fangraphs give the Cubs a 78.1% chance to win the division with Milwaukee at 5.8 and St. Louis at 12.4. There is no team on God's green earth that's thinking about being a seller, on June 29 with 78.1% chance of winning their division so that kind of talk goes against how the baseball works. The only example of a team anywhere near .500 being a seller is the 1997 White Sox "white flag" trade when they were 1 game under and they were widely criticized for it. Hasn't happened since and isn't likely to in the 2 WC era. Also this team is in the middle of a 5-7 year contention window so they will take every single playoff chance they get.

I agree, I'd only add that the critics were wrong in 1997.

 

[beckdawg]

I don't think the cubs offense is as far off as others do. I think they keep getting inopportune injuries. Contreras hit for a 84 wRC+ in April but in May and june he's up to 105 and 103. Presumably with Miggy gone he sees a lot more playing time. Rizzo started off hot in April with a 129 wRC+ but couldn't hit in May(95). In June he's murdering the ball with a 174 wRC+. Let's skip 2B for a second. Russell at SS didn't hit much at all in April and May(83/57 wRC+) but in June he's up to 114. Given his family life the early season struggle isn't that surprising. Bryant's been fairly steadily good with wRC+'s of 138, 150, and 127. Heyward has been snake bit by injuries but was hitting a fairly solid if not amazing .258/.315/.399.

Given the above think you can realistically say that once you get everyone healthy those 5 are probably a pretty good and steady line up. This leaves you with 2B, LF and CF. 2B should be fine. First off when Zobrist gets back he has a track record of being a good hitter. But even if he fails, Happ is hitting .252/.323/.538. Baez who knows what he'll do week to week. But at the very least 2B should be fine and potentially with Happ and Zobrist you have a solid LF as well. And of course Schwarber looms in AAA(3-8 with 4 k's thus far). CF is weird in the way Maddon has chose to play it. I can see the argument for playing Baez in the infield and all but he hasn't hit anywhere near as well as the platoon of Jay/Almora. After last night, Almora is hitting .275/.347/.399 and I sorta feel like you run with him more often than not. Long story short, if they can get everyone on the field at the same time think that is a top 10 or so offense in baseball and maybe higher. Between injuries and slumps they haven't all clicked at the same time and because of that you get the inconsistency we've seen. But it's not like you have to flub the numbers a ton to see potential.

I think I've said this before but if there's an area to be concerned with it's pitching specifically starting pitching. Think a lot is gonna depend on what Hendricks comes back like. Lester is perhaps a bit unlucky thus far but largely what you expect. Arrieta has good underlying numbers. I can't imagine that his 65.9% strand rate lasts. Lackey's fallen off a cliff statistically since I last looked. K/9 and BB/9 seem like you could survive with him as a #4/5 starter if he could get a grip on HR/FB rate but he's not looked good recently and he could just be done. Butler has been living on a knife edge IMO. He has a 5.36 k/9 and a 4.33 bb/9. NL average for a starter is 7.81 k/9 and 3.14 bb/9. Montgomery has a good ERA but his k/9 and bb/9 in his starts are pretty middling.

If Hendricks returns to form I think you have 3 solid starters in the second half. I think Arrieta is better than he's showing ERA wise and Lester is a bit unlucky. You can probably cobble together a #5 out of Butler/Lackey/Montgomery but they really will need to add something trade wise.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I agree, I'd only add that the critics were wrong in 1997.

I would agree with that. It was a ballsy move though and most teams wouldn't have made it.

 

[CSF77]

Lackey averaging 5-6 IP now because after he gives up a bunch of runs early, Maddon just sticks with him as long as possible so he doesn't have to burn up pen early..
Like yesterday for example

Plus having 2-4 guys in rotation that can only go 5+ on average ( Montgomery Butler Lackey Arrieta) is killing the pen..

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If you shit on his bad starts you have to accept his good ones. He has been a mixed bag

 

[CSF77]

But his bad outweighs. Not a guy on a play off roster

 

[CSF77]

I don't think the cubs offense is as far off as others do. I think they keep getting inopportune injuries. Contreras hit for a 84 wRC+ in April but in May and june he's up to 105 and 103. Presumably with Miggy gone he sees a lot more playing time. Rizzo started off hot in April with a 129 wRC+ but couldn't hit in May(95). In June he's murdering the ball with a 174 wRC+. Let's skip 2B for a second. Russell at SS didn't hit much at all in April and May(83/57 wRC+) but in June he's up to 114. Given his family life the early season struggle isn't that surprising. Bryant's been fairly steadily good with wRC+'s of 138, 150, and 127. Heyward has been snake bit by injuries but was hitting a fairly solid if not amazing .258/.315/.399.

Given the above think you can realistically say that once you get everyone healthy those 5 are probably a pretty good and steady line up. This leaves you with 2B, LF and CF. 2B should be fine. First off when Zobrist gets back he has a track record of being a good hitter. But even if he fails, Happ is hitting .252/.323/.538. Baez who knows what he'll do week to week. But at the very least 2B should be fine and potentially with Happ and Zobrist you have a solid LF as well. And of course Schwarber looms in AAA(3-8 with 4 k's thus far). CF is weird in the way Maddon has chose to play it. I can see the argument for playing Baez in the infield and all but he hasn't hit anywhere near as well as the platoon of Jay/Almora. After last night, Almora is hitting .275/.347/.399 and I sorta feel like you run with him more often than not. Long story short, if they can get everyone on the field at the same time think that is a top 10 or so offense in baseball and maybe higher. Between injuries and slumps they haven't all clicked at the same time and because of that you get the inconsistency we've seen. But it's not like you have to flub the numbers a ton to see potential.

I think I've said this before but if there's an area to be concerned with it's pitching specifically starting pitching. Think a lot is gonna depend on what Hendricks comes back like. Lester is perhaps a bit unlucky thus far but largely what you expect. Arrieta has good underlying numbers. I can't imagine that his 65.9% strand rate lasts. Lackey's fallen off a cliff statistically since I last looked. K/9 and BB/9 seem like you could survive with him as a #4/5 starter if he could get a grip on HR/FB rate but he's not looked good recently and he could just be done. Butler has been living on a knife edge IMO. He has a 5.36 k/9 and a 4.33 bb/9. NL average for a starter is 7.81 k/9 and 3.14 bb/9. Montgomery has a good ERA but his k/9 and bb/9 in his starts are pretty middling.

If Hendricks returns to form I think you have 3 solid starters in the second half. I think Arrieta is better than he's showing ERA wise and Lester is a bit unlucky. You can probably cobble together a #5 out of Butler/Lackey/Montgomery but they really will need to add something trade wise.

Full strength you want Happ either at LF or 2B. Keep Baez vs LHSP and Schwarber vs RHSP. Neither have shown that they are full time to this point.

Zo it really depends on his wrist. I would keep him as depth

Almora has to play every day

SP: Montgomery should be the 4 when Hendricks gets back. At that point demote Butler.

When Anderson finishes his rehab most likely they go back to the start of the year rotation.

If they target a starter then it most likely replace either Anderson or Lackey depending on who they get.

They need a long term SP option but who knows if they will be able to do it inseason

 

[TC in Mississippi]

 

[PickSix]

Guess it was just delusional wishing hoping that our highly paid staff ace would go out and pick this team up today. Looks like we are gonna get the same old shit today.

 

[CSF77]

Guess it was just delusional wishing hoping that our highly paid staff ace would go out and pick this team up today. Looks like we are gonna get the same old shit today.

I'll take 1:1 in the 3rd. That is heaven

 

[chibears55]

Of course you're allowed your opinions. My only issue with your posts is that your opinions are rarely backed up with meaningful stats and some things that are obvious you don't agree with. This team is going to win the division barring the unforeseen. If Bryant had torn ligaments yesterday we'd be closer to that outcome but fortunately we're not. Of course the negative to that is that it's a godawful division and the Cubs will win by default. Fangraphs give the Cubs a 78.1% chance to win the division with Milwaukee at 5.8 and St. Louis at 12.4. There is no team on God's green earth that's thinking about being a seller, on June 29 with 78.1% chance of winning their division so that kind of talk goes against how the baseball works. The only example of a team anywhere near .500 being a seller is the 1997 White Sox "white flag" trade when they were 1 game under and they were widely criticized for it. Hasn't happened since and isn't likely to in the 2 WC era. Also this team is in the middle of a 5-7 year contention window so they will take every single playoff chance they get.

Lol..i give stats on Schwarber and I'm told I'm wrong because you can see he a natural hitter..

I go by what I see between Baez n Russell, I'm being given stats..

Lol


I'm not saying they need to be sellers and dump everyone..

Just suggesting if their still fussing around .500 after the break and before deadline, with hitters still struggling and rotation going no where... they should consider moving players that won't be back next year and maybe players like Russell Zobrist Jay and Schwarber that maybe they consider moving on from or might get pitching (prospects or major league) for..

SP like Quintana and Archer will probably cost them a Schwarber or Russell if they choose to try and hold onto Jiminez and Happ..

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[TC in Mississippi]

Lol..i give stats on Schwarber and I'm told I'm wrong because you can see he a natural hitter..

I go by what I see between Baez n Russell, I'm being given stats..

Lol

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You cite batting average a lot which is a terrible stat. You talk about defense without even looking at defensive stats, and all of it is presented with a negative bias. I have no beef with you or you posts but you do tend to come with a hypothesis and present with an incomplete picture. Just saying.

 

[chibears55]

You cite batting average a lot which is a terrible stat. You talk about defense without even looking at defensive stats, and all of it is presented with a negative bias. I have no beef with you or you posts but you do tend to come with a hypothesis and present with an incomplete picture. Just saying.

Batting Average tells me who hitting and who isn't over a period of time..
Don't need to know if his hits are of tough luck or not..
After 100 AB they all just about evens out..

Guy hitting. 180 for a season and .200 for career , is just bad..

I don't need stats to show me who I think is better defensively..
I never said Russell was bad or downplayed his defense, I just said I'd prefer Baez over him at SS because I think he could make more plays and has stronger arm..

Just my opinion..

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[chibears55]

Well this was only game I felt confidence in winning this series..
Figured they were in good shape with Lester on mound against a guy who avg. 5 IP with ERA of 5.40 310 batting AVG against 1.4 WHIP..

2 runs in 7 innings...?

Looking to be 3-5 on trip with 3 to go, then final 6 at home before break..

Their about to be 1 under .500, someone here thought they could be 10 over by break..
Not happening..
They'll be lucky to be .500 and not under by then now..


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[CSF77]

Was on Cubs site. They charged all 3 to Edwards. But Edwards gave up a HR and a walk. The 2nd guy got on from Duensing and then Stropp shit the bed.


They really need a high leverage guy in MR. Edwards has the stuff but he can be inconsistent.

 

[chibears55]

That was great to see bottom of order come through in 9th..

LaStella and Jay big 2 out hits

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[Mr. Cub]

Crazy inning. Too bad we don't see that very often these days. Hope Wade can save it.

 

[PickSix]

Big W.

 

[Mr. Cub]

Nice win to get the split.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Well earned series split in one of the toughest weeks for the team in recent memory. I'll take it.

 

[TL1961]

Jon Jay, you got what may very well be the biggest hit of the season thus far.

Kudos to you!

Nice win! Huge.