IST: NBA Finals Thread: Thunder VS Heat

[Gustavus Adolphus]

Dirk makes a lot of people look like jokes. They must all be overrated too.

And again, Chris Bosh won't be able to do that. Bosh isn't a million times stronger than him like Boozer is. Lebron could back him down...but how many times do we see Lebron do that in the low post? And if Miami goes small, I see OKC going small with them with something like Westbrook, Sefolosha, Harden, Durant, and Ibaka. I see either Durant or possibly Sefolosha guarding Lebron all the time. I'm not seeing Ibaka guarding Lebron that much because, as you said, he can be beaten off the dribble. This doesn't mean Ibaka suddenly doesn't know how to play defense anymore, it means Lebron is faster than him.

You pretty much know who is guarding the 4 and 5, but I'm very interested to see who is guarding 1-3 - and how long Brooks and Spoelstra keep with it.

If I'm Spoelstra, I don't know if I would put Lebron on Durant. With the way Durant moves without the ball, I can see that affecting Lebron's offense. But then again, you have some mismatches in size between Wade and Chalmers vs. Westbrook and Sefalosha if you do put Lebron on Durant.

For Brooks, I have to imagine Sefalosha is going to be following Lebron around for 40 minutes a game this series.

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

Homecourt advantage means less and less the deeper you get into the post-season. And with the 2-3-2 format, it actually can benefit the road team quite a bit more.

Whether or not homecourt advantage matters is more on what teams has the advantage and what team they are playing...OKC is very very very difficult to beat at home..as i pointed out and they have the first two games at home

2-3-2 will help miami gain some ground in the middle of the series perhaps..but then the crucial games that decide the series(if it got to that point) would be in OKC...so i don't think the format is advantageous to the road team that much..depends on the situation

All Miami needs to do is split in OKC and then win 2 out of 3 at home to have 2 more chances to win a Game 6 or 7 in OKC. Wade, Bosh, and LeBron are all better interior/post scorers than anything OKC has. And Ibaka isn't this defensive stopper who is going to shut down Bosh. What he does well is play weak-side defense and blocks a lot of shots. A guy like LeBron is going to be way too strong for him.

guys on offense have to respect ibaka's blocking ability though..he won't shut you down in the post or outside the paint..but going into the lane guys will change their shot because ibaka either is about to block it or they are threatened by his ability..that's what a great shot blocker does:completely changes the dynamic of the post game

plus you're completely forgetting perkins

miami splitting at OKC will be very tough, winning 2 out of 3 in Miami won't be easy either(though not as tough as winning on the road)..but even if they pull that off they have to win on the road again(as i've reiterated about 200 times, OKC is very very tough at home) to win the series...

if miami had home court..i think miami would have a better chance

 

[BNB]

I think Sefalosha is gonna spend more time on Wade. Wade struggles a little with longer defenders on him. Sefalosha isn't that much bigger than wade, but it could be enough to throw him off a little.

LBJ is about 3-4 inches taller than Thabo and weighs about 30 pounds more. Thabo would do very little to LBJ. unless he's part of a double team of course.

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

Let's look at OKC's offensive options:

#1A: Durant- best scorer in the game but does not look to score in the low-post. The high-post at times but never the low-post.

#1B: Westbrook- not consistent shooting three's but money when left open from inside and has deadly crossover and hops. Also a great passer for someone who has all of that scoring ability. Has a tendency of hijacking an offense.

#3: Harden- this is a guy who will bail you out at the end of a shot-clock by dribbling into a fade-away three with the best of them. Also has PG skills.

#4: Ibaka- Not exactly a great shooter but is capable of hitting the open 12-footer. Most of his offense comes off of the glass (yet not exactly the best rebounder) or in transition.

#5: Perkins- I need to talk about his defense/rebounding here or there isn't much else to bring up of any worth. Defends the center position fairly well but can't defend the pick-and-roll/pop game. He is about average for his position at rebounds. And he is a better offensive option than Miami's Joel Anthony (but that is not saying much). He botches a lot of offensive possessions and second chance points Asik style.

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

I think Sefalosha is gonna spend more time on Wade. Wade struggles a little with longer defenders on him. Sefalosha isn't that much bigger than wade, but it could be enough to throw him off a little.

LBJ is about 3-4 inches taller than Thabo and weighs about 30 pounds more. Thabo would do very little to LBJ. unless he's part of a double team of course.

ya idk about putting thabo on lebron....

i mean, you kind of assume that lebron is going to get his(or since it's the finals, maybe not)...but i think shutting down wade would be key and thabo seems like a more advantageous defensive matchup against wade

 

[clonetrooper264]

ya idk about putting thabo on lebron....

i mean, you kind of assume that lebron is going to get his(or since it's the finals, maybe not)...but i think shutting down wade would be key and thabo seems like a more advantageous defensive matchup against wade

Pretty much this. Thabo will be put on Wade for the whole time he's in the game I would think. Thabo won't be able to do much against Lebron. He lacks the size and perhaps even quickness. I think Durant stays on Lebron. Though the only thing he has over Lebron is sheer length. I'm assuming Lebron gets his no matter who guards him though, so the real issue is whether or not Durant is in foul trouble.

I'm just wondering how much Perkins is going to play in this series. Miami likes to run a bit of a smaller lineup with Haslem and Bosh at the 4 and 5 (not sure who will be at which spot, but it doesn't matter much). Since we would expect Harden to be in for at least 35 minutes because they need his offense, does OKC take out Perkins in favor of Harden and keeping Thabo on Wade or do they take out Sefolosha and let Harden try to guard Wade?

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

Pretty much this. Thabo will be put on Wade for the whole time he's in the game I would think. Thabo won't be able to do much against Lebron. He lacks the size and perhaps even quickness. I think Durant stays on Lebron. Though the only thing he has over Lebron is sheer length. I'm assuming Lebron gets his no matter who guards him though, so the real issue is whether or not Durant is in foul trouble.

I'm just wondering how much Perkins is going to play in this series. Miami likes to run a bit of a smaller lineup with Haslem and Bosh at the 4 and 5 (not sure who will be at which spot, but it doesn't matter much). Since we would expect Harden to be in for at least 35 minutes because they need his offense, does OKC take out Perkins in favor of Harden and keeping Thabo on Wade or do they take out Sefolosha and let Harden try to guard Wade?

probably rotate in whatever is convenient, i would expect perkins to get plenty of burn

thabo should guard wade around 60-70% of the time at least then have him on the bench and harden guard him with perkins in

i'm not exactly a master of rotations here or anything, just giving a rough estimate

 

[clonetrooper264]

probably rotate in whatever is convenient, i would expect perkins to get plenty of burn

thabo should guard wade around 60-70% of the time at least then have him on the bench and harden guard him with perkins in

i'm not exactly a master of rotations here or anything, just giving a rough estimate

Yeah I'm probably overthinking it really. It's not like Harden can't handle Wade for a small stretch either, he's a pretty good defender himself.

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

Yeah I'm probably overthinking it really. It's not like Harden can't handle Wade for a small stretch either, he's a pretty good defender himself.

well,there's alot of thinking that is involved in it...guys get paid millions to specifically do that thinking and planning(coaches if not understood by the implication)

ya harden is a capable defender..and if necessary westbrook can take wade a little to, who is a very good defender and does not give up much on wade in size

 

[clonetrooper264]

well,there's alot of thinking that is involved in it...guys get paid millions to specifically do that thinking and planning(coaches if not understood by the implication)

ya harden is a capable defender..and if necessary westbrook can take wade a little to, who is a very good defender and does not give up much on wade in size

Yeah, that's true. Gotta factor in fatigue and offense as well. Sefolosha is pretty much a liability offensively because he's not consistent and is nothing more than a spot up shooter really. They'll just stick Wade or Lebron on him to let them rest/roam defensively for weak side blocks. Plus you gotta think Sefolosha won't be playing over 28 minutes (which I think is 10 minutes over his average approximately...not too sure on that) due to fatigue and whatnot. OKC also likes to run super small with Fisher, Westbrook, and Harden in the backcourt with Durant at the 4. Westbrook would be on Wade at that point. What he lacks in size he can definitely make up for in athleticism, so they won't get burned there I don't think.


Sooooo...long story short. :shrug:

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

Yeah, that's true. Gotta factor in fatigue and offense as well. Sefolosha is pretty much a liability offensively because he's not consistent and is nothing more than a spot up shooter really. They'll just stick Wade or Lebron on him to let them rest/roam defensively for weak side blocks. Plus you gotta think Sefolosha won't be playing over 28 minutes (which I think is 10 minutes over his average approximately...not too sure on that) due to fatigue and whatnot. OKC also likes to run super small with Fisher, Westbrook, and Harden in the backcourt with Durant at the 4. Westbrook would be on Wade at that point. What he lacks in size he can definitely make up for in athleticism, so they won't get burned there I don't think.


Sooooo...long story short. :shrug:

ya, really we can make some guesses, but we really don't know what Brooks will exactly be planning here. That's for us to find out, but I would assume he will have some kind of rotation set and definitely a plan against the big 3. I think convenience will definitely factor in, like if Miami goes small, then you would expect the Thunder to respond to it. Or if the Thunder are looking to space the defense and open up the lanes they might go with some kind of 4-around play with Durant,Fisher,Westbrook, and Harden.

 

[clonetrooper264]

ya, really we can make some guesses, but we really don't know what Brooks will exactly be planning here. That's for us to find out, but I would assume he will have some kind of rotation set and definitely a plan against the big 3. I think convenience will definitely factor in, like if Miami goes small, then you would expect the Thunder to respond to it. Or if the Thunder are looking to space the defense and open up the lanes they might go with some kind of 4-around play with Durant,Fisher,Westbrook, and Harden.

Yeah obviously he's got a plan set based on tape from Miami and all that. Based of the rotation tendency I've seen, the only guys you'll see of the Miami bench are probably Haslem/Battier (whoever doesn't start) and...that's really about it. You might see Cole/Miller/Anthony/Jones for a couple minutes just so the starters don't have to play all 48, but you pretty much know Miami is rolling with its starters for nearly the whole game. It's pretty much whether Haslem or Battier is in the game as far as whether to go "big" or "small" in response.

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

Yeah obviously he's got a plan set based on tape from Miami and all that. Based of the rotation tendency I've seen, the only guys you'll see of the Miami bench are probably Haslem/Battier (whoever doesn't start) and...that's really about it. You might see Cole/Miller/Anthony/Jones for a couple minutes just so the starters don't have to play all 48, but you pretty much know Miami is rolling with its starters for nearly the whole game. It's pretty much whether Haslem or Battier is in the game as far as whether to go "big" or "small" in response.

battier and haslem will be used a bit for sure(i think haslem would start, not sure though..and especially battier for his shooting and his defense)

anthony will be used a little as well..and i know miller will for some 3 point shooting and relief for lebron or wade

Ya i think OKC can plan easy for Miami because they dont have that deep a rotation, while i think OKC is a little deeper(meaning, they use their bench guys a little more imo)

 

[BigP50]

Cant wait for this series to start.

 

[clonetrooper264]

battier and haslem will be used a bit for sure(i think haslem would start, not sure though..and especially battier for his shooting and his defense)

anthony will be used a little as well..and i know miller will for some 3 point shooting and relief for lebron or wade

Ya i think OKC can plan easy for Miami because they dont have that deep a rotation, while i think OKC is a little deeper(meaning, they use their bench guys a little more imo)

Yeah the difference between Miami and OKC is that Miami plays 7 guys like 35+ minutes per game each with the big 3 usually playing close to 45 minutes each. OKC is definitely more balanced in terms of playing time. Fisher is good for 20 minutes and Collison gets around that as well. Then you have Cook in for stretches where they need that shooting (though his PT is probably equivalent to Mike Miller). And of course, Harden essentially plays starters minutes. I think the key for OKC will be using their bench to their advantage. For the 2 minutes that Miami's bench players are the majority of the lineup (ie 2 or more of the big 3 are out) the OKC bench has to pretty much crush them for those 2 minutes (whatever that means) and then using their depth to keep their key guys a little fresher than Miami's.

 

[FirstTimer]

Ibaka can't shut down a player like Bosh or LeBron 1-on-1. It just isn't going to happen. I was a huge fan of Ibaka before anybody even knew who he was, but now he is being massively overrated.

Ibaka is a below average rebounder for his position. He gets backed down fairly easily. He gets most of his blocks giving weak-side help. And he has a pretty inconsistent mid-range jumper.

LOL at Rami trying to stroke his ego.

What a clown.

Let me guess, you really liked a lot of bands "before they hit it big" too.

 

[FirstTimer]

I think Thabo and Durant rotate between Lebron and Wade. Assuming Thabo stays out of foul trouble IMO he'll be on Lebron a majority of the time. I'm interested to see who they put Westbrook on. Part of me would let Westbrook rest a little more on defense, put him on Chalmers and let either Durant or Thabo's length bother Wade a ton. Durant on Wade when Thabo is on James seems like a bit of an odd matchup but I can't see Brooks wanting to risk Durant getting into foul trouble by having him play Lebron for huge minutes.

 

[RamiTheBullsFan]

guys on offense have to respect ibaka's blocking ability though..he won't shut you down in the post or outside the paint..but going into the lane guys will change their shot because ibaka either is about to block it or they are threatened by his ability..that's what a great shot blocker does:completely changes the dynamic of the post game

plus you're completely forgetting perkins

miami splitting at OKC will be very tough, winning 2 out of 3 in Miami won't be easy either(though not as tough as winning on the road)..but even if they pull that off they have to win on the road again(as i've reiterated about 200 times, OKC is very very tough at home) to win the series...

if miami had home court..i think miami would have a better chance

The problem for the Thunder is that Ibaka is likely going to need to be glued on Chris Bosh on the perimeter to make sure he doesn't hit that easy jump-shot. Bosh is in the position to be the difference-maker because he will do enough of keeping Ibaka out of the paint to open things up for Wade and LeBron. Perkins is capable of making those inside baskets tough for Miami but he is the type that can't play huge minutes and is also easy to get into foul trouble. Sefolosha is a great defender to use on Wade or LeBron but he takes away so much from the OKC offense. Harden will be a good enough defender to use the vast majority of the game.

 

[RamiTheBullsFan]

probably rotate in whatever is convenient, i would expect perkins to get plenty of burn

thabo should guard wade around 60-70% of the time at least then have him on the bench and harden guard him with perkins in

i'm not exactly a master of rotations here or anything, just giving a rough estimate

Sefolosha shouldn't get huge minutes. I think the main times he will be in the game will be end-of-game situations when the Heat need a basket on an OKC defensive possession after a timeout. Durant and Westbrook are both good for at least 40 minutes. Harden should be good for 35. Fisher should fill about 5-10 and Sefolosha will get below 20 minutes.

 

[nwfisch]

Not that it matters too much, but is Sefalosha still starting for OKC?