IST: Pirates vs Cubs

[Goose22]

Is it OK to panic now? Pretty safe to say the Cubs will at least get a WC spot, but placing this team's chances to advance in a one game, win and advance situation is not playing to this team's strengths (or better yet, weaknesses!) Not sure of the breakdown numbers wise, but the Cubbies probably need to finish the regular season 4-1, to win the division. Am I off base with that thinking?

This team looks worn down, running on fumes, or any other euphemism you want to add here. Hope they can will themselves to end the season on a hot streak, avoid a WC game, and get some much needed rest heading into the playoffs. It's hard to believe that 3 short years ago, I was ecstatic the Cubbies were playing themselves into a WC situation. My how times have changed in such a short time...for the better! Go Cubs Go!

 

[Ari Bear]

Many thought in the beginning of the season that we have a high powered offense. True of the matter is it is a very overrated offense. They are not that good.

 

[Ari Bear]

2004's final week was pretty rough too

2003 NLCS game 6

 

[kapooncha]

Is it time to talk about FanGraphs again?

Lol was just going to post that. Everyone and their fucking stats a few weeks ago saying Cubs were a lock to win the division.

 

[kapooncha]

MIL is 8-8 vs STL this year. STL HAS to win these games if they want to make the playoffs. Plus they are at home. At the very least I'd expect STL to take 1 of the remaining two games and not get swept at home in a must win series. As for detroit, sure they aren't a good team and don't have much to play for but you still gotta go out there and win the games. I mean the sox beat the cubs once and they are basically detroit.

What annoys me about all this is it's inherently assuming the cubs fail. If you would rather be a team that has 5 games left and is 1.5 back vs a team with 6 games left and is 1.5 ahead you're crazy.... objectively crazy. MIL isn't in an advantageous situation. They aren't even in a 50/50 situation. They are an underdog and a heavy one at that. As a cubs fan what more would you ask for? Flaherty is the only starter they face in the remaining 6 games that I think has a clear edge over the cubs starter. So again they are the objective favorites and all of the remaining 6 games come at home where the cubs are 47-27(.635) this season. Can you dream up some scenario where the cubs lose the division? Sure but why are you TRYING to do that? If you were to tell me right now the 2019 cubs would be in this exact situation I'd be thrilled for next year.

I just don't understand where all this comes from. The cubs have 6 games left in the season, are the heavy favorites to win the division, are a lock to make the playoffs and have the best record in the NL. Are people really supposed to panic about being in this situation? I just don't get it.

Say what now?

 

[TC in Mississippi]

All anyone did in terms of projecting what the team would do was assess probabilities. The numbers showed that what’s happening now was not probable, no one ever said it wasn’t possible but people were predicting Milwaukee to win the division when they had a 19% chance to do it. So a lot of you took s high risk gamble in terms of projecting outcome and it appears you were right. That doesn’t invalidate those who saw the slim odds and went with the more likely scenario. I mean at this point we’re all screwed. None of us wanted this outcome, which still isn’t final yet, but here we are and we’re all miserable. Was there benefit in being miserable for the last three weeks waiting for the bottom to fall out?

 

[chibears55]

Many thought in the beginning of the season that we have a high powered offense. True of the matter is it is a very overrated offense. They not that good.

Potent

 

[chibears55]

All anyone did in terms of projecting what the team would do was assess probabilities. The numbers showed that what’s happening now was not probable, no one ever said it wasn’t possible but people were predicting Milwaukee to win the division when they had a 19% chance to do it. So a lot of you took s high risk gamble in terms of projecting outcome and it appears you were right. That doesn’t invalidate those who saw the slim odds and went with the more likely scenario. I mean at this point we’re all screwed. None of us wanted this outcome, which still isn’t final yet, but here we are and we’re all miserable. Was there benefit in being miserable for the last three weeks waiting for the bottom to fall out?

Some of us just saw that there were problems with the offense as they were consistently inconsistent despite what they were averaging..
Saw hitters looking like they were going to have a down year and not magically flip that switch..

Saw how the main guys in the bullpen were getting overused early and often because the SP couldn't go 5 or 6 and Maddon kept going to them, even if it were to get 1 or 2 outs..

Like i said and i know ill get bombarded for saying this, but sometimes you have to look beyond the Data/Stats and just see what actually going on, on the field

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Some of us just saw that there were problems with the offense as they were consistently inconsistent despite what they were averaging..
Saw hitters looking like they were going to have a down year and not magically flip that switch..

Saw how the main guys in the bullpen were getting overused early and often because the SP couldn't go 5 or 6 and Maddon kept going to them, even if it were to get 1 or 2 outs..

Like i said and i know ill get bombarded for saying this, but sometimes you have to look beyond the Data/Stats and just see what actually going on, on the field

This is still more what Milwaukee is doing that what the Cubs are not. At the beginning of the month if you said the Cubs go .500 you still would have had a hard time picking the Brewers to play .700 ball to overtake them, something Milwaukee hadn't done for an extended stretch all season. Based on the evidence at hand that was a long shot. That's all anyone said here. I don't watch baseball waiting for something to go wrong. I go into every game expecting a win and when I look at probabilities I expect those to hold true because that is what's most likely. this has been a perfect storm.

 

[SilenceS]

Oh no, we suck again


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[anotheridiot]

I am sure glad they got that loss in, I would have hated for that to be our october 1 game to get in the playoffs.

 

[beckdawg]

This is still more what Milwaukee is doing that what the Cubs are not. At the beginning of the month if you said the Cubs go .500 you still would have had a hard time picking the Brewers to play .700 ball to overtake them, something Milwaukee hadn't done for an extended stretch all season. Based on the evidence at hand that was a long shot. That's all anyone said here. I don't watch baseball waiting for something to go wrong. I go into every game expecting a win and when I look at probabilities I expect those to hold true because that is what's most likely. this has been a perfect storm.

Honestly, I'm just at the point where if people want to be miserable I'm not going to bother trying to cheer them up. What's the point in engaging? It's also why I rarely if ever comment in these IST during a game. The threads are just depressing. I've come to the conclusion that some people don't want to have rational discussions. They want to be emotional and vent their frustration. And I mean if that's what people want then whatever but I have no desire to play a shoulder for people to cry on anymore.

As for the cubs, despite rumors of their demise they are still a half game up and have the talent to close this out. Would have been nice if it had come easier but life isn't always easy. Hopefully we get the Q of the last month rather than the Q prior to that.

 

[Parade_Rain]

The Cubs tried to change Castro's entire approach. He had a bad season. Mallee was given the task of helping Heyward. He had a tough time. Note Castro got better when he was allowed to be who he was. Note Heyward got better when Chilli helped him go back to his rookie season. The entire team was given the philosophy of spraying the ball this season. While some numbers are high, others are low. Less HR by all. Some players having down seasons. One player looks to be swinging down even. On the surface it doesn't appear to be working. Sure you want to eliminate K as much as possible. That doesn't changing anyone's philosophy, as much as it is helping them have strike zone awareness. As an example, look at Baez. He is laying off bad pitches and making himself a tougher out this year. That's the ticket with players, especially guys who have made it to the MLB. Outside of the player here and there who makes it to the Show through athleticism and still has significant mechanical flaws, players have a DNA that doesn't change much, especially with the team's hitting instructors. Hitters do what they do. They hit. They swing for HR. Some spray the ball. Others hit into shifts. Ted Williams hit into the original shift. While the shift sucked his BA by about 15 points, he wasn't about to change his philosophy to accomodate spraying the ball more to eliminate the shift. That change could have sucked his power, etc. The Cubs have some thinking to do this off-season.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I will say this; I was absolutely wrong about Milwaukee. They're playing out their asses and I didn't expect it. they're 5 games over their Pythagorean win total so it was easy to expect regression but it didn't happen. They remind me of those Royals teams a few years ago. The numbers said they shouldn't have won and yet they did. That stuff is hard to predict.

 

[SilenceS]

I find this exciting. It’s baseball. I don’t care if the Cubs lose the division. It’s exciting. In a long season, this is what fans should live for with baseball.


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[beckdawg]

I will say this; I was absolutely wrong about Milwaukee. They're playing out their asses and I didn't expect it. they're 5 games over their Pythagorean win total so it was easy to expect regression but it didn't happen. They remind me of those Royals teams a few years ago. The numbers said they shouldn't have won and yet they did. That stuff is hard to predict.

Certainly helps they are getting career years out of Christian Yelich, Cain, Travis Shaw, and Jesus Aguilar.

 

[Holy Cow]

Add Jeffress to the list and if anyone wants to add Hader i’d just say that’s who he is...a dominant game changer

 

[Diehardfan]

Somebody mentioned 1969 being a choke job. The fact is the Mets played close to .750 baseball for the last two months....Cubs were somewhere near .500 over that span. Even if they had played around .600 they would not have held off the Mets. Cubs didn't lose it in 69, the Mets won it. They did it with pitching and clutch hitting. I think that was the first time that I really realized how important pitching is.

 

[Diehardfan]

I will say this; I was absolutely wrong about Milwaukee. They're playing out their asses and I didn't expect it. they're 5 games over their Pythagorean win total so it was easy to expect regression but it didn't happen. They remind me of those Royals teams a few years ago. The numbers said they shouldn't have won and yet they did. That stuff is hard to predict.

That's the crazy thing about this game and why it makes no sense to try and predict anything. No one can do it, it's useless to try. If someone could, Vegas would know about it. It brings you right back to that old axiom...."it's why they play the games". Which is exactly why I'm not throwing dirt on the Cubs just yet.

 

[TC in Mississippi]