It's time

[CSF77]

Pretty sure Hickey is making them elevate and go higher in the zone. Chattwood I believe will be the next Jake

 

[beckdawg]

re; chatwood

11.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K, 5 BB

on the spring That'll do pig.

 

[brett05]

Pretty sure Hickey is making them elevate and go higher in the zone. Chattwood I believe will be the next Jake

WHen healthy he was already showing great ability. I don't think it's a fair comparison

 

[beckdawg]

Honestly he doesn't have to be Arrieta. I'll take the 2018 version of Charlie Morton.

 

[brett05]

Honestly he doesn't have to be Arrieta. I'll take the 2018 version of Charlie Morton.

I think I am saying that outside of Coors, he was already a pretty darn up and coming solid to great pitcher

 

[CSF77]

I think I am saying that outside of Coors, he was already a pretty darn up and coming solid to great pitcher

Jake was a project incoming also. He had a hell of a run but he is a 2/3 outside of it. Chatwood lost his curve in coors which is a plus pitch. Then counter it with a rising fastball with a top 5 spin rate. It is a power pitchers combo.

I e pretty much felt that he has been a dark horse from the beginning and will prove to make Theo look like a genius in passing on Cobb in lieu of Chatwood.

Add to it in coors he had to switch to a cutter/2 seem attack and lower his arm slot to 3/4. I believe Hickey has him mechanically fixed right now and we are going to see a rotation that has no holes.

 

[beckdawg]

Jake was a project incoming also. He had a hell of a run but he is a 2/3 outside of it. Chatwood lost his curve in coors which is a plus pitch. Then counter it with a rising fastball with a top 5 spin rate. It is a power pitchers combo.

I e pretty much felt that he has been a dark horse from the beginning and will prove to make Theo look like a genius in passing on Cobb in lieu of Chatwood.

Add to it in coors he had to switch to a cutter/2 seem attack and lower his arm slot to 3/4. I believe Hickey has him mechanically fixed right now and we are going to see a rotation that has no holes.

Like I said I'm not sure I'd compare him and Arrieta. I think that just comes off a bit rich given Arrieta was a Cy Young winner. Maybe Chatwood gets there but I think Morton is a more realistic hope. You're roughly expecting him to be a 4.5-5 win player over 3 years on the deal he has. Morton was worth over 3 wins last year. If you get 9 wins you're thrilled with him.

 

[CSF77]

Honestly he doesn't have to be Arrieta. I'll take the 2018 version of Charlie Morton.

2017 Morton held a 3.3 WAR. Zips has Chatwood around 1.8. I believe he lies somewhere inbetween honestly. 2.7-2.9 would be a nice expectation for him. Now I do not think that he pushes out a 5.0 season. That would equal 200 IP/200 SO with a fip under 3. That is looking at him as Jake prime

 

[CSF77]

Like I said I'm not sure I'd compare him and Arrieta. I think that just comes off a bit rich given Arrieta was a Cy Young winner. Maybe Chatwood gets there but I think Morton is a more realistic hope. You're roughly expecting him to be a 4.5-5 win player over 3 years on the deal he has. Morton was worth over 3 wins last year. If you get 9 wins you're thrilled with him.

I don’t think of Jake as a legit ace. He had a hell of a run but it was not his mean. If you take that away he is a 2-3 WAR starter which is MOR.

 

[beckdawg]

I don’t think of Jake as a legit ace. He had a hell of a run but it was not his mean. If you take that away he is a 2-3 WAR starter which is MOR.

I'm not sure I'd consider his non 2015ish version an Ace either but think you're a bit low on Arrieta. If you look at his value from 2013 forward he's 12th in fWAR. He's solidly a #1 starter. If you want to argue he's falling off that given age or whatever fine but I don't think it's particularly accurate to call him a MOR starter. and frankly using year to year WAR isn't really a great metric for measuring pitchers. Injuries impact them more than position players since they only get 32 or so chances to start a season.

As that pertains to Chatwood, can he have a 2-3 win season? Sure but that's not really the point. #1 starters have 2-3 win seasons as their floor but can easily have 4+ win seasons. That's the difference in tiers in my eyes. Someone like Morton tops out having a career year at 3.3 fWAR. It would be very unlikely for him to significantly top that. I'd love to see Chatwood be better than 3.5 wins this year but I wouldn't bet on it. And given his injury history it wouldn't be shocking to see him miss time. That's another difference between him and someone like Arrieta/Lester. If you look at Arrieta's time 2014 on(was traded in 2013) he hasn't thrown fewer than 150 innings.

 

[CSF77]

Jake just had a short peak years. Bosio got that potential out of him. Chatwood is at that same phase except he won’t need a minor league stint to fix his flaws.

 

[CSF77]

I'm not sure I'd consider his non 2015ish version an Ace either but think you're a bit low on Arrieta. If you look at his value from 2013 forward he's 12th in fWAR. He's solidly a #1 starter. If you want to argue he's falling off that given age or whatever fine but I don't think it's particularly accurate to call him a MOR starter. and frankly using year to year WAR isn't really a great metric for measuring pitchers. Injuries impact them more than position players since they only get 32 or so chances to start a season.

As that pertains to Chatwood, can he have a 2-3 win season? Sure but that's not really the point. #1 starters have 2-3 win seasons as their floor but can easily have 4+ win seasons. That's the difference in tiers in my eyes. Someone like Morton tops out having a career year at 3.3 fWAR. It would be very unlikely for him to significantly top that. I'd love to see Chatwood be better than 3.5 wins this year but I wouldn't bet on it. And given his injury history it wouldn't be shocking to see him miss time. That's another difference between him and someone like Arrieta/Lester. If you look at Arrieta's time 2014 on(was traded in 2013) he hasn't thrown fewer than 150 innings.

I agree with this. I believe Chatwood should be a 2.7 WAR starter. Right now he is a 1.8 projected. I believe they are basing this off of innings pitched. Joe does tend to yank his starters but with Hickey that should change

 

[chibears55]

Speaking of chatwood.... yo! @ the 9 k's today. Looked really good this spring.

Might be the best FA SP pick up for the money....



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[Omeletpants]

If Chatwood turns out to be this good then who will have a better staff?

 

[brett05]

If Chatwood turns out to be this good then who will have a better staff?

It would be between the Astros, Nationals, Cubs, and quite possibly the Mets and Dodgers IMO

 

[CSF77]

It would be between the Astros, Nationals, Cubs, and quite possibly the Mets and Dodgers IMO

As far as 1-5. Cubs and Astros. As far as WAR Nats and Stroes

Dodgers have a solid play off rotation if they limit Hill over the season.

 

[beckdawg]

So apparently Bryant's new goal is to be a 1:1 bb:k rate guy. If he does that he would legit be an absurd player. For what it's worth he is 7:7 in the spring. But this is a guy who 3 years ago was nearly at a 3:1 k:bb rate. Last year he was at 14.3%/19.2%. So realistically he's not *that* far off considering the massive improvement he's already made. I'd be shocked if he got his k rate under 15% but what could potentially happen is he ups his walk rate to 16-17% and brings down his K rate.

Bryant's 2017 line was .295/.409/.537. If you were to just fudge with only Bryant's walk/k rate last year and put them let's say at 16.9/16.9(to get a round bb/k total of 113) his triple slash would have been .304/.432/.554 which.... yes please.... And the thing is if he is walking and K'in at that rate his power numbers are going to go up. Last year his ISO was .242. If you look at players who had a walk rate over 16% and a k rate under 19% since 95, there were 77 individual seasons players had like that. 41 of them were over .240 ISO.

 

[chibears55]

Maples sucking ass in ST so far...
Shame , i was hoping he would take that step up this year..

He still might later, keeping an eye on him

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[TC in Mississippi]

It would be between the Astros, Nationals, Cubs, and quite possibly the Mets and Dodgers IMO

I think you have to add Cleveland and Arizona who were the best rotations in their respective leagues in 2017 and have virtually the same staffs.

 

[beckdawg]

Well luckily fangraphs does the leg work for us on this one with projections... This is their current SP projections per team.

Team		IP	ERA	FIP	fWAR
Astros		977	3.75	3.75	19.2
Indians		980	3.84	3.84	18.8
Dodgers		959	3.57	3.70	18.5
Cubs		960	3.76	3.84	17.9
Mets		949	3.94	3.87	17.2
Nationals	966	3.94	3.90	16.7
Yankees		958	4.11	4.16	16.4
Red Sox		982	3.96	4.01	15.9
Cardinals	947	3.94	3.94	15.7
Diamondbacks	946	4.08	4.06	15.7
Rays		947	3.97	4.03	14.7
Pirates		944	4.22	4.12	13.7
Blue Jays	950	4.27	4.28	13.6
Phillies	940	4.39	4.37	13.3
Rockies		938	4.65	4.52	13.3
Giants		986	4.06	4.12	12.4
Mariners	943	4.33	4.35	11.7
Angels		948	4.23	4.35	11.6
Brewers		937	4.52	4.51	11.6
Padres		942	4.35	4.32	11.2
Twins		940	4.54	4.57	10.6
Braves		936	4.43	4.42	10.5
Tigers		952	4.73	4.69	9.8
Rangers		946	4.71	4.71	9.7
Athletics	934	4.62	4.53	9.6
Reds		940	4.67	4.74	9.0
Royals		936	4.59	4.60	8.7
Orioles		938	5.02	5.03	7.2
White Sox	932	5.02	5.10	5.7
Marlins		936	4.73	4.85	5.3