It's time

[chibears55]

Lynn getting a 1 year deal isn't that surprising. He was never favored among starters and probably waited to long to deal. Arrieta strikes me as someone who'll sit out the first part of a season if he has to in order to get what he wants.

Of the top 50 FAs..

26 of 38 signed are 1 or 2 yr deals
8 of those 12 are 3 yrs...

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[beckdawg]

Of the top 50 FAs..

26 of 38 signed are 1 or 2 yr deals
8 of those 12 are 3 yrs...

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The other problem with Arrieta signing a 1 year deal is from the team perspective. If he signs before the june draft on a 1 year deal you're giving up a 2nd round pick. Unless he's REALLY cheap I can't see a team doing that. They are going to one at least 2-3 year I imagine to sign any QO

 

[beckdawg]

https://www.mlb.com/video/hendricks-seven-strikeout-start/c-1884910283

Hendricks looks pretty filthy.

 

[chibears55]

https://twitter.com/PJ_Mooney/status/972878984886276101?s=19


Little extra incentive for Happ to have a monster year

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[TC in Mississippi]

The other problem with Arrieta signing a 1 year deal is from the team perspective. If he signs before the june draft on a 1 year deal you're giving up a 2nd round pick. Unless he's REALLY cheap I can't see a team doing that. They are going to one at least 2-3 year I imagine to sign any QO

Reports are that Jake signing in Philly is expected in the next couple of days. It not the way I expected it to go but I’ve always thought he’d land there.

Caveat: this is Nightingale going the furthest out on the limb with this and he’s often wrong, but there is a consensus among guys like Heyman and Rosenthal that it is likely

 

[beckdawg]

https://twitter.com/PJ_Mooney/status/972878984886276101?s=19


Little extra incentive for Happ to have a monster year

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How so? If anything him having a monster year would suggest that there would be even more of a gap between his agent and the cubs front office. If they are making a minor stink about this now I can't imagine in 2 years when arbitration kicks in they are going to be easy to deal with.

 

[beckdawg]

Reports are that Jake signing in Philly is expected in the next couple of days. It not the way I expected it to go but I’ve always thought he’d land there.

Caveat: this is Nightingale going the furthest out on the limb with this and he’s often wrong, but there is a consensus among guys like Heyman and Rosenthal that it is likely

Think they are really the only team still out there frankly. And correct me if I'm wrong but I believe anyone picking in the first 10 picks in the draft only is forced to forfeit their 2nd highest pick. That would be an added bonus for them given they pick 3rd. Edit make that their third round pick because they already gave up their 2nd for Santana.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

In light of the Lynn 1-year deal, I notice there are only three more FAs who rejected QOs left out there, now. All pitchers -- Arrieta, Cobb and Holland.

I know that, for me, I feel a lot like I felt starting out 2016, in that I thought we had a killer rotation and one of the best starting 8 in all of MLB, but I wasn't sure we were going all the way with Hector Rondon as our closer. I feel that yeah, it's possible that Morrow excels in a role he has never actually been thrust into before -- but I don't feel sure about it.

That said, depending on who signs Arrieta, from the QO gain/loss perspective, wouldn't that be something of a wash if another team signs Jake (we collect the QO picks and slot money, thanks) and then, say, we sign Holland (we give pretty much the same back out, thanks).

That would make acquiring Holland QO-impact-neutral, in a net sense. The only question from there would be if we could put anything at all together that would keep us under the luxury tax threshold, all things considered. (Cutting, say, Grimm's salary entirely wouldn't entirely fix the problem, and I'm not certain how much of that salary the Cubs would have to pay even if they DFA'ed him.)

However, if you look at it from the perspective of Holland being available with essentially a neutral QO impact... that means the Cubs, moreso than other teams at this stage, may be in a better position to consider a one-year contract with Holland. If Holland gets to where it's a delaying-tactic single-year deal or nothing, he may sign for less than $10 million for the season. If other teams aren't wanting to sign the guy to a multi-year deal because of the QO impact, they're sure as shit not looking to sign him on a one-year stopgap just to pay the same QO draft pick and slot money penalty. (Unless he re-signs with the Rockies, of course.)

But since it would be QO-neutral for the Cubs, we maybe could consider it. Like I say, it would just be a matter of how do you juggle the payroll to stay under that cap?

Of course, this all assumes Arrieta signs with somebody before the draft... sigh... At this point, I don't know that, in your QO-impact calculations, you can absolutely count on that.

But... I know I'd feel one heck of a lot more secure with Holland replacing Grimm in the bullpen, and replacing Morrow as the closer. The one-two of Morrow-Holland, with the quality guys sitting underneath them, could get us up over 110 wins for the year with this team and rotation, IMHO...

 

[beckdawg]

That said, depending on who signs Arrieta, from the QO gain/loss perspective, wouldn't that be something of a wash if another team signs Jake (we collect the QO picks and slot money, thanks) and then, say, we sign Holland (we give pretty much the same back out, thanks).

In terms of draft capital not even remotely. The pick the cubs would give up is #24. The pick they would get for Arrieta would be #77 ATM. And that's not just a case of picking 50 picks sooner. It's a large difference in max slot money you can offer. Last year the #24 pick was worth $2,614,500 and the #77 pick was worth $743,900. $2 mil in terms of draft money is a big deal. Last year in total the cubs only had $7,454,900.

In terms of getting Holland, if I'm him I just wait until after june. I can't see anyone giving him what he wants when he's tied to the QO and that only applies to signing before the draft.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

In terms of draft capital not even remotely. The pick the cubs would give up is #24. The pick they would get for Arrieta would be #77 ATM. And that's not just a case of picking 50 picks sooner. It's a large difference in max slot money you can offer. Last year the #24 pick was worth $2,614,500 and the #77 pick was worth $743,900. $2 mil in terms of draft money is a big deal. Last year in total the cubs only had $7,454,900.

In terms of getting Holland, if I'm him I just wait until after june. I can't see anyone giving him what he wants when he's tied to the QO and that only applies to signing before the draft.

I hear ya -- but point of clarification? The #24 pick is the Cub's first-round pick. I thought the QO rules changed this year such that you lost your second-round pick, not first-round pick, if you signed a FA who rejected a QO...? It makes no sense that we would get, say, the Phillies' third-round pick (because they already lost their second), but the Rockies would get our first, would it?

And the pick number is what defines the slot money consideration, so that would shift by round, too...

 

[chibears55]

How so? If anything him having a monster year would suggest that there would be even more of a gap between his agent and the cubs front office. If they are making a minor stink about this now I can't imagine in 2 years when arbitration kicks in they are going to be easy to deal with.

Just saying....
He wants a bigger pay day then the renewal he got, he has to go out and show last year wasnt a fluke

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[chibears55]

I see Heyward still working on things in ST games....

3 for 23 .130 7 Ks

Maybe by next weekend he'll give us a preview of what we'll see during season [emoji16]

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[chibears55]

Arrieta gets 3/75 from Phillies.....

Yea...didnt think he'd get the 5-7 yr deal he was looking for

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[Omeletpants]

Just saying....
He wants a bigger pay day then the renewal he got, he has to go out and show last year wasnt a fluke

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Got a feeling this is the preview

 

[CSF77]

Got a feeling this is the preview

He is a .265 hitter right now with 13 HR power. I really don’t see him as much more than a #7 hitter out there due to RF in Wriggly being a pain to field. Shadows and wind changes with a OF well to play.

It really doesnt justify poor O but it is a deal that Theo already regrets.

 

[beckdawg]

I hear ya -- but point of clarification? The #24 pick is the Cub's first-round pick. I thought the QO rules changed this year such that you lost your second-round pick, not first-round pick, if you signed a FA who rejected a QO...? It makes no sense that we would get, say, the Phillies' third-round pick (because they already lost their second), but the Rockies would get our first, would it?

And the pick number is what defines the slot money consideration, so that would shift by round, too...

It appears you may be right. The new rules in general are screwy and I haven't totally wrapped my head around them. It appears it's always your second highest pick now to sign a guy that you forfeit. You don't "get" that pick they just don't have it. What you get is a pick after the 30th pick if you are a revenue sharing team(ie KC 2x, TB, and Cleveland already have). If you pay into rev sharing you get a pick after the competitive balance picks in round two which is effectively the first picks of round 3 if you wanna look at it that way. Cubs already have #76 for Davis.

So, it would be more of a wash than I was initially thinking but you'd still lose whatever difference is between the 63rd pick and the 77 pick. That's probably only like $100-300k. As for pick money, yeah that's determined by order. I don't know exactly the formula but think they effectively put a figure on the draft as a whole and then weight each pick to be worth a percentage decreasing with each pick obviously.

With that being said I'm still sort of dubious on the cubs signing Holland when he has OQ attached. For one thing they aren't going to go over the luxury tax to do it. They have a little wiggle room but no that much to give him say $15 mil. Realistically the only see this happening is if there is some creative contract structure. Plus I think the cubs likely want the extra pick/money in the draft to get creative there. $700k or so doesn't seem like a lot but it was essentially the difference between Estrada's pick value and what he signed for rather than going to college. This was a guy who at some points in the process was thought to be a first round type talent they got I believe in the 6th round because he fell off a little. For a team rebuilding it's farm depth adding guys with his kind of upside even if they aren't say Cease level prospects is a big deal.

 

[DanTown]

I hear ya -- but point of clarification? The #24 pick is the Cub's first-round pick. I thought the QO rules changed this year such that you lost your second-round pick, not first-round pick, if you signed a FA who rejected a QO...? It makes no sense that we would get, say, the Phillies' third-round pick (because they already lost their second), but the Rockies would get our first, would it?

And the pick number is what defines the slot money consideration, so that would shift by round, too...

You don't get teams draft picks in FA; they forfeit their pick and then you pick in a sandwich round depending on various factors (revenue sharing, luxury tax paid, etc)

 

[beckdawg]

How annoyed is Cobb right now that he didn't just take the deal they offered Chatwood? Seems difficult to imagine he's going to do better than that.

 

[beckdawg]

Speaking of chatwood.... yo! @ the 9 k's today. Looked really good this spring.

 

[CSF77]

Speaking of chatwood.... yo! @ the 9 k's today. Looked really good this spring.

Highest average four-seam spin rate by a starting pitcher in 2017
Minimum 500 four-seamers thrown
1. Justin Verlander: 2,552 rpm
2. Max Scherzer: 2,504 rpm
3. Yu Darvish: 2,502 rpm
4. Sonny Gray: 2,484 rpm
5. (tie) Tyler Chatwood: 2,482 rpm
5. (tie) Jeff Samardzija: 2,482 rpm