It's time

[chibears55]

Think platoon isn't the right term. Platoon sort of implies two guys who only play one position where as I see Happ playing more of a super-utility role.

Yes Happ gonna get plenty of PT at other positions, just think he will be getting majority of his starts against RHers in CFer, especially if Almora struggles against them...

Almora will or should get all the starts against LHers in CF...

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[Iceman2385]

Lester Hendricks Darvish Quintana Chatwood has been set as the cubs rotation order headed into 2018..

I know the order can and may change throughout the season due to rainout etc..
But damn how great is this when you have 2 guys that started the season opener last year and would be no.1/2 on many teams this year pitching 3 and 4 and going up against opponents 3 and 4s...



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Yea but IMO r 3 and 4 are better then r 1 and 2. Definitely better then Lester. Lester is r true 4, at least that’s how I rank em. But we do have a killer staff.

 

[CSF77]

Yea but IMO r 3 and 4 are better then r 1 and 2. Definitely better then Lester. Lester is r true 4, at least that’s how I rank em. But we do have a killer staff.

Lester had a off year. Joe was saying that he is looking the best that he has seen and has taken on a more vocal role on the team this spring.

Hendricks has been a 2-3 ERA pitcher for 2,years now. You really can’t argue him getting the 2nd spot.

Talent wise I agree but leadership wise not at this point. Lester and Hendricks have proven to be staff leaders going in.

 

[beckdawg]

Yes Happ gonna get plenty of PT at other positions, just think he will be getting majority of his starts against RHers in CFer, especially if Almora struggles against them...

Almora will or should get all the starts against LHers in CF...

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Not really sure I agree here. I mean it sorta depends on how they intend to utilize Zobirst. The reason I say this is Schwarber is playing vs RHP. I mean that's fairly obvious. They love him and if you're going to platoon him at all it is vs LHP not RHP. So assuming that 5 positions are more or less set day to day(catcher, 1b, SS, 3B, RF) that would leave Happ with 2 spots to play(CF/2B). Here's the thing. Baez is even worse vs RHP than Almora. Baez last year hit .258/.304/.443 vs RHP(85 wRC+) and on his career he's a .242/.282/.398(76 wRC+) hitter vs RHP. Almora hit .271/.291/.420(81 wRC+) which would appear worse but his career marks are .275/.300/.415(84 wRC+) and if you exclude the first 2 months of last season he hit .310/.321/.508(111 wRC+) vs RHP.

Plus I think you can make the case that you want your best defensive outfield out there with Schwarber even if he is better with the weight loss. So, excluding Zobrist from this conversation I'd play Happ at 2B over Baez more often than not with Almora in CF. If those second half numbers are legit he's arguably the front runner to lead off because he murders LHP(.320/.377/.503 131 wRC+). Suppose you could argue that you want a higher OBP guy leading off vs RHP with a better contact guy behind the bigger bats but I mean Almora is your prototypical 80's lead off hitter type before OBP became a bigger deal.

In terms of Zobrist, he wasn't amazing last year vs RHP(.249/.336/.401 94 wRC+) but he was even worse vs LHP(.179/.261/.292 42 wRC+). Those numbers vs RHP aren't far off his career marks at .254/.351/.421 for 113 wRC+. He lost a few walks and power but in terms of average that's fairly where you expect him. On the flip side he's been way better in his career vs LHP(.284/.364/.444 122 wRC+).

I feel like how you play these guys largely depends on how Zobrist goes. If he's got a .350 OBP vs RHP I think you can make the case for him leading off vs RHP and putting Almora on the bench. But if he's more like the .336 OBP he had last year and Almora is the .321 OBP guy he proved to be for the final 4 months of the season think I'd go with Almora's defense.

So, I think the question becomes how much of a comfort blanket Maddon will use Zobrist as. If he feels that Zobrist needs to be the 600 PA guy he was in 2016 that really screws with matters. Even the 500 or so PAs he got last year would be a big complication. However, if Zobrist basically becomes a 300-ish PA type I think that likely means Almora is an every day starter save for a few cases. More or less I think it becomes which of Almora or Baez do you want to play on a given day

 

[chibears55]

Not really sure I agree here. I mean it sorta depends on how they intend to utilize Zobirst. The reason I say this is Schwarber is playing vs RHP. I mean that's fairly obvious. They love him and if you're going to platoon him at all it is vs LHP not RHP. So assuming that 5 positions are more or less set day to day(catcher, 1b, SS, 3B, RF) that would leave Happ with 2 spots to play(CF/2B). Here's the thing. Baez is even worse vs RHP than Almora. Baez last year hit .258/.304/.443 vs RHP(85 wRC+) and on his career he's a .242/.282/.398(76 wRC+) hitter vs RHP. Almora hit .271/.291/.420(81 wRC+) which would appear worse but his career marks are .275/.300/.415(84 wRC+) and if you exclude the first 2 months of last season he hit .310/.321/.508(111 wRC+) vs RHP.

Plus I think you can make the case that you want your best defensive outfield out there with Schwarber even if he is better with the weight loss. So, excluding Zobrist from this conversation I'd play Happ at 2B over Baez more often than not with Almora in CF. If those second half numbers are legit he's arguably the front runner to lead off because he murders LHP(.320/.377/.503 131 wRC+). Suppose you could argue that you want a higher OBP guy leading off vs RHP with a better contact guy behind the bigger bats but I mean Almora is your prototypical 80's lead off hitter type before OBP became a bigger deal.

In terms of Zobrist, he wasn't amazing last year vs RHP(.249/.336/.401 94 wRC+) but he was even worse vs LHP(.179/.261/.292 42 wRC+). Those numbers vs RHP aren't far off his career marks at .254/.351/.421 for 113 wRC+. He lost a few walks and power but in terms of average that's fairly where you expect him. On the flip side he's been way better in his career vs LHP(.284/.364/.444 122 wRC+).

I feel like how you play these guys largely depends on how Zobrist goes. If he's got a .350 OBP vs RHP I think you can make the case for him leading off vs RHP and putting Almora on the bench. But if he's more like the .336 OBP he had last year and Almora is the .321 OBP guy he proved to be for the final 4 months of the season think I'd go with Almora's defense.

So, I think the question becomes how much of a comfort blanket Maddon will use Zobrist as. If he feels that Zobrist needs to be the 600 PA guy he was in 2016 that really screws with matters. Even the 500 or so PAs he got last year would be a big complication. However, if Zobrist basically becomes a 300-ish PA type I think that likely means Almora is an every day starter save for a few cases. More or less I think it becomes which of Almora or Baez do you want to play on a given day

Zobrist should get minimal playing time this year...

His AB should come via PH and occasionally spelling Scwarber and Heyward. Baez or Russell if they wanna go with lefties against a tough RHer..

Just don't see the need right now to over play him anymore then giving occasional rest to guys and keeping him sharp..

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[CSF77]

Easy fix is VS LHSP Baez 2B/Almora CF/Zobrist LF/Happ RF

Vs RHSP Schwarber LF/Happ CF/Heyward RF/ Zobrist 2B

You could argue Baez added more AB’s vs lower leverage RHSP and Schwarber and Heyward vs lower leverage LHSP.

Thus cutting AB’s from Zobrist. On Happ he should push over 600 PA regardless.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Zobrist should get minimal playing time this year...

His AB should come via PH and occasionally spelling Scwarber and Heyward. Baez or Russell if they wanna go with lefties against a tough RHer..

Just don't see the need right now to over play him anymore then giving occasional rest to guys and keeping him sharp..

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I agree with you, but I wouldn't count on it. I think Zobrist is going to get more playing time than any of us are comfortable with.

 

[chibears55]

I agree with you, but I wouldn't count on it. I think Zobrist is going to get more playing time than any of us are comfortable with.

Probably right as he Maddon guy, maybe he'll spend much of the year on and off the 10 day DL with his back issues...

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[beckdawg]

Zobrist should get minimal playing time this year...

His AB should come via PH and occasionally spelling Scwarber and Heyward. Baez or Russell if they wanna go with lefties against a tough RHer..

Just don't see the need right now to over play him anymore then giving occasional rest to guys and keeping him sharp..

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I agree that in an ideal world Zobrist would be a bench guy. But I'm not sure Maddon will actually play it that way. I think the other way to look at this is that Joe tends to aggressively double switch. So, in that sense I think Zobrist on the bench is handy because he can sub for multiple guys. But if Almora and Baez are already on the field vs RHP that sort complicates matters because ideally you'd want both on the field with a lead.

So, another way I could potentially see this playing out is you stat the game with something like Schwarber, Almora, Happ at LF CF 2B and then if you get a lead you might use Zobrist as just a normal pinch hitter and later in the game you might move Happ to LF and Baez in for 1-2 PAs at 2nd.

The other thing is I feel like if the choice is ultimately between Baez and Almora day to day don't you want a high batting average in there? One of my gripes is that people will often bring up how bad the cubs were with situational hitting last year stranding so many runners. But a lot of that has to do with who is hitting after your OBP guys at the top of the line up. You see about 75% RHP in a season. Last year Baez had a .258 average vs RHP and an identical .258 vs RHP in 2016. There's certainly a case to be made that his power and obp are better than Almora but is that really what you're looking for in the 6-8 slots? I feel like you'd rather have a high average guy even if his OBP isn't as good. Maybe Almora hits into a bunch of double plays in that role but he'd at least be putting the ball into play with his high contact rate.

 

[chibears55]

I agree that in an ideal world Zobrist would be a bench guy. But I'm not sure Maddon will actually play it that way. I think the other way to look at this is that Joe tends to aggressively double switch. So, in that sense I think Zobrist on the bench is handy because he can sub for multiple guys. But if Almora and Baez are already on the field vs RHP that sort complicates matters because ideally you'd want both on the field with a lead.

So, another way I could potentially see this playing out is you stat the game with something like Schwarber, Almora, Happ at LF CF 2B and then if you get a lead you might use Zobrist as just a normal pinch hitter and later in the game you might move Happ to LF and Baez in for 1-2 PAs at 2nd.

The other thing is I feel like if the choice is ultimately between Baez and Almora day to day don't you want a high batting average in there? One of my gripes is that people will often bring up how bad the cubs were with situational hitting last year stranding so many runners. But a lot of that has to do with who is hitting after your OBP guys at the top of the line up. You see about 75% RHP in a season. Last year Baez had a .258 average vs RHP and an identical .258 vs RHP in 2016. There's certainly a case to be made that his power and obp are better than Almora but is that really what you're looking for in the 6-8 slots? I feel like you'd rather have a high average guy even if his OBP isn't as good. Maybe Almora hits into a bunch of double plays in that role but he'd at least be putting the ball into play with his high contact rate.

Im fine if he comes off bench on double switches or whatever later in game..

I just see no reason to have him starting a great amount of games over Baez Russell Happ Almora Schwarber and Heyward other then because Maddon wants to

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[CSF77]

Im fine if he comes off bench on double switches or whatever later in game..

I just see no reason to have him starting a great amount of games over Baez Russell Happ Almora Schwarber and Heyward other then because Maddon wants to

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Sometimes it is more about production vs preference.

They are a play off team and .230 BA won’t cut it this year. Last year it was a team issue. If you have Happ hitting .260 and Schwarber .280 with Almora hitting .219 vs RHSP and Baez hitting .220 vs them.

It really depends if the D justifies the O at that point.

On Zobrist it is all about the O as his D is not game changing like Almora and Baez’s has proven to be.

The reality is Almora, Baez, Russell and Heyward are there for their D. Happ, Schwarber and Zobrist for their O. So to justify taking AB’s away from the better D they have to produce at a higher level to take away AB’s outside of normal days off or mental rest days to break slumps.

I’m looking at Heyward more than most players on the roster. It could get to the point of benching him if his O doesn’t justify his AB’s.

 

[chibears55]

Sometimes it is more about production vs preference.

They are a play off team and .230 BA won’t cut it this year. Last year it was a team issue. If you have Happ hitting .260 and Schwarber .280 with Almora hitting .219 vs RHSP and Baez hitting .220 vs them.

It really depends if the D justifies the O at that point.

On Zobrist it is all about the O as his D is not game changing like Almora and Baez’s has proven to be.

The reality is Almora, Baez, Russell and Heyward are there for their D. Happ, Schwarber and Zobrist for their O. So to justify taking AB’s away from the better D they have to produce at a higher level to take away AB’s outside of normal days off or mental rest days to break slumps.

I’m looking at Heyward more than most players on the roster. It could get to the point of benching him if his O doesn’t justify his AB’s.

37/38 YO Ben Zobrist is done...
I dont expect much from him offensively and it wouldn't surprise me if he spends most of year on DL..

Heyward making 21.5 mil this year, all he needs to do is be solid defensively and stay out of a long long slump with bat and he'll play most everyday


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[CSF77]

37/38 YO Ben Zobrist is done...
I dont expect much from him offensively and it wouldn't surprise me if he spends most of year on DL..

Heyward making 21.5 mil this year, all he needs to do is be solid defensively and stay out of a long long slump with bat and he'll play most everyday


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We don’t know that yet. Him coming in with a stiff back makes it lean that way. But he could come out of ST with 50 AB’s and put up .280/.340/.460 it wouldn’t be shocking. Which jumbles everything.

Ideally you want Zobrist and Happ being your flex guys to lessen your line up weaknesses. And I see Joe aiming that direction. Which means the AB’s come out of Almora/Baez vs righties and Schwarber and Heyward vs lefties.

Production should dictate how extreme it goes.

 

[chibears55]

We don’t know that yet. Him coming in with a stiff back makes it lean that way. But he could come out of ST with 50 AB’s and put up .280/.340/.460 it wouldn’t be shocking. Which jumbles everything.

Doubt it....


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[CSF77]

Doubt it....


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2017:
Apr: .216/.326/.394
May: .276/.375/.474
Jun: .132/.195/.237 (injury limits to 38 AB)
Jul: .208/.271/.312
Aug: .280/.366/427
Sep: .238/.320/.357

I'm seeing a guy that started slow in Apr then got hot in May and ended up injured. Took a month to get into the flow and had a strong month in Aug. Sept was a slump of sorts.

You really have to look at the break down sometimes before drawing conclusions.

Russel was dangled but looking at his splits:
APR: .258/.301/.402
May: .162/.295/.284
Jun: .258/.290/.515
Jul: .267/.313/.467
Aug: .429/.500/.571 (7 AB injury)
Sep: .226/.314/.452

He never got it going and has much to prove at the plate. There was a reason why he was being offered for SP.

A bunch of these guys have something to prove right now and it is really not about age. Zobrist will be 37 in May and I see him getting around 400 AB's this year and it would avg 67 per month. Which falls just under his avg month last year by 2 games worth of AB's.

 

[CSF77]

But wanting to see who gets prefrence:

OPS:
Bryant: .946
Rizzo: .899
Contreras: .855
Happ: .842
Baez: .796
Almora Jr: .782
Schwarber: .782
Russell: .722
Heyward: .715
Zobrist: .693

That is the major factor Joe looks at when deciding who plays.

PA:
Bryant: 665
Rizzo: 691
Contreras: 428 (injured for a month)
Happ: 413 (started later season)
Baez: 508
Almora: 323 (played full season)
Schwarber: 486 (demoted 1 month)
Russell: 385 (injured 1 month)
Heyward 481 (2 DL stints)
Zobrist 496 (injured 1 month)

 

[chibears55]

2017:
Apr: .216/.326/.394
May: .276/.375/.474
Jun: .132/.195/.237 (injury limits to 38 AB)
Jul: .208/.271/.312
Aug: .280/.366/427
Sep: .238/.320/.357

I'm seeing a guy that started slow in Apr then got hot in May and ended up injured. Took a month to get into the flow and had a strong month in Aug. Sept was a slump of sorts.

You really have to look at the break down sometimes before drawing conclusions.

Russel was dangled but looking at his splits:
APR: .258/.301/.402
May: .162/.295/.284
Jun: .258/.290/.515
Jul: .267/.313/.467
Aug: .429/.500/.571 (7 AB injury)
Sep: .226/.314/.452

He never got it going and has much to prove at the plate. There was a reason why he was being offered for SP.

A bunch of these guys have something to prove right now and it is really not about age. Zobrist will be 37 in May and I see him getting around 400 AB's this year and it would avg 67 per month. Which falls just under his avg month last year by 2 games worth of AB's.

Zobrist being 37 and at end of his career, if he gets 400 AB this year he will be taking a ton of AB away from the young core that now and probably the future in Happ Almora Baez and Schwarber along with Heyward and possibly Russell...
A core group that should be ready to establish themselves as everyday players..

That not a good thing holding them back just to get Zobrist more AB then he needs to be getting, just because...

Again as of now there no reason to have him start games other then to keep his bat fresh..
If guys slump, injured, then yes they should look to him ...



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[CSF77]

Zobrist being 37 and at end of his career, if he gets 400 AB this year he will be taking a ton of AB away from the young core that now and probably the future in Happ Almora Baez and Schwarber along with Heyward and possibly Russell...
A core group that should be ready to establish themselves as everyday players..

That not a good thing holding them back just to get Zobrist more AB then he needs to be getting, just because...

Again as of now there no reason to have him start games other then to keep his bat fresh..
If guys slump, injured, then yes they should look to him ...



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I'll break him down vs the positions that his AB's affects:

2B: Him vs Baez:

Now I'm going with a strait vs RHP as that is the major factor:

Baez: .258/.304/.443 (OPS .747)
Zobr: .249/.336/.401 (OPS: .737)

You gain some OBA but lose SLG. OPS is a wash. D gives Baez the player edge. So yes taking away AB's from Baez makes you worse.

Now vs LHP:

Heyward: .267/.292/.391 (OPS .662)
Schwarber: .171/.306/.341 (OPS .648)
Zobrist: .179/.261/.292 (OPS .553)

Surprisingly Zo proved to be a much better LH hitter last year. Historically this has not been the case. Seeing how it was left wrist inflammation it affects his leading hand batting RH. Most likely a major factor.

But Happ:
VS RHP: .243/.334/.529
VS LHP: .276/.313/.476

By far his power came as a lefty. Righty he was more of a singles hitter. More likely due to his LH upper cut swing.

Almora:
VS RHP: .271/.291/.420
VS LHP: ..342/.411/.486

Honestly his splits are showing full time player. His walk rate is his jinx. He sees lefties far better. 13 BB in 110 AB vs 6 in 188 AB's.

He figures that bit out I really don't see him sitting on the bench much next year.

 

[chibears55]

I'll break him down vs the positions that his AB's affects:

2B: Him vs Baez:

Now I'm going with a strait vs RHP as that is the major factor:

Baez: .258/.304/.443 (OPS .747)
Zobr: .249/.336/.401 (OPS: .737)

You gain some OBA but lose SLG. OPS is a wash. D gives Baez the player edge. So yes taking away AB's from Baez makes you worse.

Now vs LHSP:

Heyward: .267/.292/.391 (OPS .662)
Schwarber: .171/.306/.341 (OPS .648)
Zobrist: .179/.261/.292 (OPS .553)

Surprisingly Zo proved to be a much better LH hitter last year. Historically this has not been the case. Seeing how it was left wrist inflammation it affects his leading hand batting RH. Most likely a major factor.

Lol..
You can break down and pull all the stats you want from last year and beyond...

My stance My opinion is that going into the season Ben Zobrist at 37 YO and is at end of his career DOES NOT need to be starting games ahead of Baez Happ Almora Schwarber Russell and Heyward in LF RF or 2B other then to keep his bat fresh ..

Those kids earned and deserves to get the nod to start and play the majority of the games...

Ben Zobrist should just be a bench player who should get no more then 1 start a week to stay fresh unless of course circumstances changes...

He could be used in double switches, PH and stay in games but there no reason for him to start a large number of games ahead of the others going into the season...

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[beckdawg]

I think we might see the cubs make a real outside the box type trade this year. Just as an example I have sort of been thinking about for a while now... you could theoretically offer 2 of Baez, Russell and Happ for Francisco Lindor. On the surface that may seem strange but Lindor solves a lot of issues for the cubs. He's top 3 defensively at SS. He's a switch hitting lead off hitter who hit 30 HRs last year and he's still young. And Cleveland is kind of tight on money at the moment. They've tried to work out a long term deal with Lindor but haven't found common ground yet. This offseason they were also supposedly listening on Kipnis to free up some money. If they dealt Lindor for 2 of those 3 they would have a middle infield that's fairly cheap and could then deal Kipnis to fix their bullpen(they are losing Miller/Allen after the season) or look to add a starter(they are losing Bauer and Carasco after the season).

Maybe that idea is too crazy but from my perspective it makes a lot of sense and the front office did trade an in his prime Nomar once upon a time in a some what similar out of the box move. Just sort of feel like if Cleveland would listen on that sort of deal or something close you could move the guy who isn't traded to the starter at 2B with Zobrist and La Stella behind him and Bote and Ademan in the minors longer term. And instead of 3 good young MI quickly headed toward arbitration you would have 2.