It's time

CSF77

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Well I really see the only “weakness” is uncertainty. We don’t know if Morrow takes to closing. Happ doesn’t regress. Almora makes the next step. Schwarber stumbles again. Baez continues being a undisciplined hitter.

These guys mature this team is the best in the NL. If they repeat last year and depend on Rizzo, Contreras and Bryantvto carry them it makes for a rough season.

Most of these guys have 3.0 WAR potential. Sitting at 2.0 or less it will be a long season.

I still would rather see Heyward go if anyone. He was established coming in and really has not lived up to it.
 

anotheridiot

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they tried to move russell this off season, no way Baez is going anywhere. Happ is most probably going to be our opening day center fielder and leadoff guy. Almora has a great glove, was theo's first pick, but now it does not look like he is the one getting center field.
 

beckdawg

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I still would rather see Heyward go if anyone. He was established coming in and really has not lived up to it.

I mean that's not going to happen. I don't see why people are even entertaining the idea. He's not going to get more in FA and he's not going to opt out to do the cubs a favor. And if you are him why would you allow a trade? Even after this year I believe he still has a limited NTC which he will almost certainly use wisely.

As for uncertainty, my thing there is these guys are only going to get better by playing. So, if you're the cubs front office and let's say you've bought in on Schwarber being the player they talk about him being. He only gets there by facing LHP. Like wise if Almora is ever going to be a full time player he only gets there by facing RHP consistently. By playing these guys in qusi-platoon you're stunting their growth.
 

CSF77

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I mean that's not going to happen. I don't see why people are even entertaining the idea. He's not going to get more in FA and he's not going to opt out to do the cubs a favor. And if you are him why would you allow a trade? Even after this year I believe he still has a limited NTC which he will almost certainly use wisely.

As for uncertainty, my thing there is these guys are only going to get better by playing. So, if you're the cubs front office and let's say you've bought in on Schwarber being the player they talk about him being. He only gets there by facing LHP. Like wise if Almora is ever going to be a full time player he only gets there by facing RHP consistently. By playing these guys in qusi-platoon you're stunting their growth.

If he has a monster season and is making 19:$20M, 20:$21M, 21:$21M, 22:$22M, 23:$22M. Hard to say honestly with the issues going on in the market this offseason. But it is around 5/106 at a prime age still and a huge season could make him pause
 

beckdawg

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If he has a monster season and is making 19:$20M, 20:$21M, 21:$21M, 22:$22M, 23:$22M. Hard to say honestly with the issues going on in the market this offseason. But it is around 5/106 at a prime age still and a huge season could make him pause

Don't think even a monster season changes anything. Ask yourself this, how different is he from Cain who got 5/$80? Heyward's peak season was 6.5 fWAR and he'll be 29.5 going into next offseason. Cain's peak season was also 6.5 fWAR and he was 31.5 going into this offseason. If you wanna quibble that a 2 year younger Heyward could do better than 5/$80 ok but he's not doing better than 5/$106. Even if he put up a Trout season there's enough stink on him from the last 2 years that I don't think he'd do better than 5/$106. And look at how FA went this year. He very realistically could do far worse if markets don't move.

Edit: also for what its worth who would even give him this theoretical larger contract. Yanks and dodgers are out. Astros are out. Detroit is rebuilding. Texas has Mazara. SF traded for McCutch. Basically, if at 25 he couldn't get more than ~$23 mil AAV why is now suddenly going to get more? All these teams had their chance 2 years ago. And even if there's some team who's middling who is desperate enough to pay him let's say $120 mil over 5 years. Would you take $14 mil and play for a team that may miss the playoffs or stay where you are at and have a good shot at winning the world series? I don't think $10-15 mil changes that and that would be best case for him.
 

CSF77

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Don't think even a monster season changes anything. Ask yourself this, how different is he from Cain who got 5/$80? Heyward's peak season was 6.5 fWAR and he'll be 29.5 going into next offseason. Cain's peak season was also 6.5 fWAR and he was 31.5 going into this offseason. If you wanna quibble that a 2 year younger Heyward could do better than 5/$80 ok but he's not doing better than 5/$106. Even if he put up a Trout season there's enough stink on him from the last 2 years that I don't think he'd do better than 5/$106. And look at how FA went this year. He very realistically could do far worse if markets don't move.

Edit: also for what its worth who would even give him this theoretical larger contract. Yanks and dodgers are out. Astros are out. Detroit is rebuilding. Texas has Mazara. SF traded for McCutch. Basically, if at 25 he couldn't get more than ~$23 mil AAV why is now suddenly going to get more? All these teams had their chance 2 years ago. And even if there's some team who's middling who is desperate enough to pay him let's say $120 mil over 5 years. Would you take $14 mil and play for a team that may miss the playoffs or stay where you are at and have a good shot at winning the world series? I don't think $10-15 mil changes that and that would be best case for him.

Next year I would look at the next gen teams. Sox don’t unless they push Eloy as a LF. Phillies not really up on their current situation. Put them as a maybe. Angles not sure again.

It would have to be a 30 HR season with his eliete D. Basically his work with Davis was transcending for him and produced his best season. Up to this point his highest WAR was 6.5 when he hit 27 HR’s

His last year with STL was a 6.1 WAR season. 13 HR with a .293 BA. He falls somewhere inbetween the 2 years. Say 20 HR’s and pushing .280 BA it looks like his rookie season 18 HR .277 BA and 4.7 WAR player value.

If doesn’t erase the last 2 years but it does show that he is not broken. Might even be written off as a bad connect with Melee
 

CSF77

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But regardless if he started playing up to 5 WAR again I doubt many would want him bailing anyways.

Other note: Underwood has come in looking really good this spring. He may end up meeting his potential finally.
 

beckdawg

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Next year I would look at the next gen teams. Sox don’t unless they push Eloy as a LF. Phillies not really up on their current situation. Put them as a maybe. Angles not sure again.

It would have to be a 30 HR season with his eliete D. Basically his work with Davis was transcending for him and produced his best season. Up to this point his highest WAR was 6.5 when he hit 27 HR’s

His last year with STL was a 6.1 WAR season. 13 HR with a .293 BA. He falls somewhere inbetween the 2 years. Say 20 HR’s and pushing .280 BA it looks like his rookie season 18 HR .277 BA and 4.7 WAR player value.

If doesn’t erase the last 2 years but it does show that he is not broken. Might even be written off as a bad connect with Melee

But this is what teams were buying 2 years ago when the cubs signed him. Granted his power numbers were down but you're essentially painting the picture of 2015 Heyward who was coming off a 5.1 season in 2014 and finished 2015 with 6.1 fWAR. For the sake of argument if you give him 6.5 wins next year why would a team suddenly give him more? The cubs at 8/$186 were essentially buying a younger version of the player you're suggesting. Even if your contention is that effectively the market viewed Heyward as a 3/$78 mil player because of the opt out clause and the signing bonus that's still only $26 mil AAV. At 5/$106 he's already at $21.2 mil. And the difference between then and now is A) he was 25 at the time of the previous signing vs 28 after this year and B) the previous 3 years before the last deal he was worth 14.6 or an average of 4.9 fWAR where as since signing with the cubs even if you give him a 6.5 win season next year he's only been worth 8.9 fWAR or an average of about 3.

No team is going to look at 2018 and ignore the two years prior even if he does have a monster year. I'd argue at the very least you'd cut whatever you thought his 2018 was worth by about 80% just to cover your ass in case he regresses again. And the thing is there's been no monster contract given out to outfielders in quite some time. Last was probably Elisbury which looks like a mistake at this point. Teams are going to look at that deal Cain got and use it as a starting point. And with none of the big market teams in play who's going to seriously distort the market?

And again, all that assume that's Heyward wants to leave. I can tell you for certain that most players don't like FA. Obviously they like getting paid money but it's a super stressful process. If you have a family you don't know for certain where that family is going to live. if you have kids you have to figure out where they will go to school....etc. If I'm Heyward, even if a team offerred me $25 mil AAV for 5 new years vs the $21.2 he will make I'm not taking that. I'd rather stay where I'm comfortable on a team that's loaded to win for that 5 year period.

Literally the only case I can see anyone realistically making that Heyward would opt out would be not after 2018 but if he had 2 straight monster years and opts out after 2019. But even then I think it would just be to renegotiate the final 4 years with the cubs.
 

beckdawg

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So, I realize spring training stats don't matter much but the cubs are 6-1-2 with 56 runs and and 42 against(+14). Happ in 13 ABs is hitting .385/.429/1.154. La Stella is hitting .308/.357/.462 also in 13 ABs. Rizzo is hitting .364/.417/.727 in 11 ABs. Schwarber is hitting .273/.467/.273 also in 11. Almora is hitting .000/.091/.000 over 10 abs. Gimenez is hitting .400/.500/.400 over 10 abs. Baez is hitting .222/.300/.444 over 9 ABs. Bourjos is hitting .222/.300/.222 over 9 ABs. Russell is hitting .222/.300/.222 over 9 ABs. Heyward is hitting .125/.300/.250 over 8 ABs. Contreras is hitting .429/.429/1.000 over 7 ABs. Bryant is hitting .600/.667/.800 over 5 ABs.

So, in terms of their hitting and players who may potentially make the roster the only one not doing much of anything ATM is Almora though obviously it's only 10 ABs. The next group who's not far off where you'd like to see them is Heyward, Baez, and Russell. The rest of the players look great save for Bourjos who I'm not sure makes the team. In terms of pitching the starters look like this.

Chatwood 3.0 1 hit 1 walk 1 k
Quintana 1.0 3 hits 1 walk 1 ER 1 k
Darvish hasn't pitched
Lester 1.2 1 hit 1 ER 2 walks 3 k's
Hendricks 2.0 1 hit(2 unearned runs on a HR) 0 walks 3 k's

That gives you a grand total of 7.2 IP, 6 hits 4 walks, 8 k's and 2 ER or a 1.31 whip, 9.40 k/9 4.70 bb/9 and a 2.34 ERA. Walk rate is a little high but rest looks pretty damn good. Obviously again small sample and all that vs meaningless competition but you'd rather see them perform well than not. Bullpen looks like this

Morrow hasn't pitched
Rondon hasn't pitched
Cishek - 2.0 1 walk 1 k
Monty - 2.0 2 hits 1 walk 2 k's
Edwards - 2.0 1 hit 2 k's
Wilson - 2.0 1 hit 2 k's
Duensing - 2.0 4 hits 4 ER(2 HRs) 0 walks 5 k's
Grimm - 1.0 1 hit 1 HR/ER 0 walk 1 k
Maples - 3.0 4 hits 4 ER(1 HR) 4 walks 2 k's
Alvarez - 3.0 3 hits 4 ER(1 HR) 4 walks 6 k's
Zastryzny - 4.0 6 hits 2 ER(1 HR) 2 walks 3 k's

The battle for the 8th spot is pretty ugly atm at least among the front runners. Of the guys locked into the roster other than Duensing most have looked pretty good. Of the guys likely on the chopping block Alberto Baldonado has looked good throwing 4 innings giving up 2 hits with 0 ER and 5 k's. Anthony Bass has also looked good throwing 3.0 innings giving up 4 hits and 5 k's with 0 ER. Not sure that's going to be enough to matter but they have shown up Among the depth starters Mills has been good throwing 3.0 innings with 2 walks and 4 k's and 0 ER. Butler has thrown 3.2 innings giving up 2 hits and unearned run with 2 walks and 2 ks. Tseng has thrown 3.2 innings 3 hits 2 ER with 3 walks and 3 k's. Michael Roth has thrown 3.0 innings giving up 2 hits and k'ing 3 guys. De La Cruz has thrown 2.0 innings giving up a walk a hit and 2 k's.

Again not to put too much weight not only into spring training stats but super short sample stats but the general impression so far in ST is the bats are largely looking good. The starters both and depth and MLB ready look good but are still fine tuning. And the bullpen of the guys likely to make the roster seems to be looking good other than as mentioned Duensing though i think in his case the 5 K's are a positive sign. Looks like he just got touched up pretty hard by 2 HRs.

The 8th BP slot is going to be interesting. I get the feeling we're going to see them stand pat and hope someone breaks out. But if that doesn't happen it seems like a fairly likely place they could look to add an arm in july. Not necessarily thinking a big impact closer type but possibly someone to fill a particular role for them. Though if Smyly comes back healthy I think he could be a real impact guy out of the pen.

And just FYI we're like 29% through spring training if you go by number of days that have a game. There's 22 game days left although 5 of those days will be split squad games so there's 27 games left.
 

CSF77

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I would put Gimlez in over Cartiani right now. He has been absorbing the starts on Contreras’ off days. Cartiani has not been used in this role.

Pitching I still see it as Morrow/Clechek/Edwards/Wilson/Strop/Montgomery/Grimm/Duesing

AAA SP: Butler/Mills/Underwood/Tseng. Looks like they may push Mike Roth as a lefty in Iowa as the 5th arm. Which keeps Alzolay in Tenn.

Closer in Iowa should be Maples even after he got hammered. Seeing how he is a slider pitcher you never know if the weather there is affecting his grip.
 

chibears55

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Don't think even a monster season changes anything. Ask yourself this, how different is he from Cain who got 5/$80? Heyward's peak season was 6.5 fWAR and he'll be 29.5 going into next offseason. Cain's peak season was also 6.5 fWAR and he was 31.5 going into this offseason. If you wanna quibble that a 2 year younger Heyward could do better than 5/$80 ok but he's not doing better than 5/$106. Even if he put up a Trout season there's enough stink on him from the last 2 years that I don't think he'd do better than 5/$106. And look at how FA went this year. He very realistically could do far worse if markets don't move.

Edit: also for what its worth who would even give him this theoretical larger contract. Yanks and dodgers are out. Astros are out. Detroit is rebuilding. Texas has Mazara. SF traded for McCutch. Basically, if at 25 he couldn't get more than ~$23 mil AAV why is now suddenly going to get more? All these teams had their chance 2 years ago. And even if there's some team who's middling who is desperate enough to pay him let's say $120 mil over 5 years. Would you take $14 mil and play for a team that may miss the playoffs or stay where you are at and have a good shot at winning the world series? I don't think $10-15 mil changes that and that would be best case for him.
He may not opt out but he is tradeable..
He'll have a partial no trade clause after this season

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chibears55

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So, I realize spring training stats don't matter much but the cubs are 6-1-2 with 56 runs and and 42 against(+14). Happ in 13 ABs is hitting .385/.429/1.154. La Stella is hitting .308/.357/.462 also in 13 ABs. Rizzo is hitting .364/.417/.727 in 11 ABs. Schwarber is hitting .273/.467/.273 also in 11. Almora is hitting .000/.091/.000 over 10 abs. Gimenez is hitting .400/.500/.400over 10 abs. Baez is hitting .222/.300/.444 over 9 ABs. Bourjos is hitting .222/.300/.222 over 9 ABs. Russell is hitting .222/.300/.222 over 9 ABs. Heyward is hitting .125/.300/.250 over 8 ABs. Contreras is hitting .429/.429/1.000 over 7 ABs. Bryant is hitting .600/.667/.800 over 5 ABs.

So, in terms of their hitting and players who may potentially make the roster the only one not doing much of anything ATM is Almora though obviously it's only 10 ABs. The next group who's not far off where you'd like to see them is Heyward, Baez, and Russell. The rest of the players look great save for Bourjos who I'm not sure makes the team. In terms of pitching the starters look like this.

Chatwood 3.0 1 hit 1 walk 1 k
Quintana 1.0 3 hits 1 walk 1 ER 1 k
Darvish hasn't pitched
Lester 1.2 1 hit 1 ER 2 walks 3 k's
Hendricks 2.0 1 hit(2 unearned runs on a HR) 0 walks 3 k's

That gives you a grand total of 7.2 IP, 6 hits 4 walks, 8 k's and 2 ER or a 1.31 whip, 9.40 k/9 4.70 bb/9 and a 2.34 ERA. Walk rate is a little high but rest looks pretty damn good. Obviously again small sample and all that vs meaningless competition but you'd rather see them perform well than not. Bullpen looks like this

Morrow hasn't pitched
Rondon hasn't pitched
Cishek - 2.0 1 walk 1 k
Monty - 2.0 2 hits 1 walk 2 k's
Edwards - 2.0 1 hit 2 k's
Wilson - 2.0 1 hit 2 k's
Duensing - 2.0 4 hits 4 ER(2 HRs) 0 walks 5 k's
Grimm - 1.0 1 hit 1 HR/ER 0 walk 1 k
Maples - 3.0 4 hits 4 ER(1 HR) 4 walks 2 k's
Alvarez - 3.0 3 hits 4 ER(1 HR) 4 walks 6 k's
Zastryzny - 4.0 6 hits 2 ER(1 HR) 2 walks 3 k's

The battle for the 8th spot is pretty ugly atm at least among the front runners. Of the guys locked into the roster other than Duensing most have looked pretty good. Of the guys likely on the chopping block Alberto Baldonado has looked good throwing 4 innings giving up 2 hits with 0 ER and 5 k's. Anthony Bass has also looked good throwing 3.0 innings giving up 4 hits and 5 k's with 0 ER. Not sure that's going to be enough to matter but they have shown up Among the depth starters Mills has been good throwing 3.0 innings with 2 walks and 4 k's and 0 ER. Butler has thrown 3.2 innings giving up 2 hits and unearned run with 2 walks and 2 ks. Tseng has thrown 3.2 innings 3 hits 2 ER with 3 walks and 3 k's. Michael Roth has thrown 3.0 innings giving up 2 hits and k'ing 3 guys. De La Cruz has thrown 2.0 innings giving up a walk a hit and 2 k's.

Again not to put too much weight not only into spring training stats but super short sample stats but the general impression so far in ST is the bats are largely looking good. The starters both and depth and MLB ready look good but are still fine tuning. And the bullpen of the guys likely to make the roster seems to be looking good other than as mentioned Duensing though i think in his case the 5 K's are a positive sign. Looks like he just got touched up pretty hard by 2 HRs.

The 8th BP slot is going to be interesting. I get the feeling we're going to see them stand pat and hope someone breaks out. But if that doesn't happen it seems like a fairly likely place they could look to add an arm in july. Not necessarily thinking a big impact closer type but possibly someone to fill a particular role for them. Though if Smyly comes back healthy I think he could be a real impact guy out of the pen.

And just FYI we're like 29% through spring training if you go by number of days that have a game. There's 22 game days left although 5 of those days will be split squad games so there's 27 games left.
Maybe im over thinking this but i noticed Maddon been batting his regulars on top of order to get more ABs and after starting at leadoff Almora has been put down to 7th in the order the last couple games he played....

Like i said earlier, wouldn't surprise me to see Happ start the season in CF and Maddon roll with him if he starts out hot, then slowly get Almora in there as/if Happ cools off...

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beckdawg

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I really wouldn't know about that, I'm not following the Grapefruit League or the Astros' bullpen competition...;)

I think you meant to type Strop, there, Beck... :)

Yeah haha super late night me thinks of Rondon and Strop as the same.
 

CubsFaninMN

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Best line from Spring Training thus far...

Heard during the Diamondbacks' game coverage today: "Contreras spent more time on the mound last year than some of those Cubs relievers."

They went on, citing how the second-base interference rule was dubbed the Chase Utley rule, to describe the new mound visit rule as the Contreras rule.

I hate to say this, but that ain't trash talking. There is a great deal of truth to that statement.

:D
 

SilenceS

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Baez should be a starter everyday. He is not a platoon player. His defense is already mid season form. Outstanding stuff.
 

beckdawg

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Baez should be a starter everyday. He is not a platoon player. His defense is already mid season form. Outstanding stuff.

If you want to argue his defense is too valuable to leave out of the line up that's a valid point but simply put he's gotta start hitting RHP better. The past 2 years he's at .258/.296/.424(83 wRC+). And I'm being generous there excluding the first 2 years int he majors where he was even worse. If that split was reversed and it was LHP he struggled with I think it's less of an issue but 75% of all pitching you see in a given season are right handed.

I'm not going to get into another debate about what Baez's potential is here but simply put if he's not any better than that then he is a platoon player. And that wasn't a small sample. He's taken 689 PAs vs RHP the past 2 years. He's nearing 1300 career PAs in the majors. He's gotta be better than that if you want to be a full time player.
 

SilenceS

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If you want to argue his defense is too valuable to leave out of the line up that's a valid point but simply put he's gotta start hitting RHP better. The past 2 years he's at .258/.296/.424(83 wRC+). And I'm being generous there excluding the first 2 years int he majors where he was even worse. If that split was reversed and it was LHP he struggled with I think it's less of an issue but 75% of all pitching you see in a given season are right handed.

I'm not going to get into another debate about what Baez's potential is here but simply put if he's not any better than that then he is a platoon player. And that wasn't a small sample. He's taken 689 PAs vs RHP the past 2 years. He's nearing 1300 career PAs in the majors. He's gotta be better than that if you want to be a full time player.

Yea, so complete game and not just offense.


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beckdawg

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Yea, so complete game and not just offense.


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Like I said I got no problem with Baez from the defensive side of the ball but even if you're a big proponent of defense it's a lot more difficult to have an impact defensively than it is offensively. General rule of thumb used in stats is 10 runs equates to a win. A great defender may be +15-20 runs defensively in a season. A league average hitter(100 wRC+) like Inciarte was last year created 92 wRC. So effectively you're talking about a full time players batt being roughly 5 times(or higher) more important than his glove.

And to be frank I'm not even necessarily saying you're wrong here. It wouldn't shock me to see the cubs front office having the same line of thought as you. What my worry is with Baez's issues against RHP is that the cubs have far too many guys on the back half of their line up who aren't solid. Heyward got better last year but he still wasn't where you want him to be. Schwarber is sort of a work and progress and while I think he takes a big step forward this year him not hitting last year hurt. Almora is likely to see a lot more playing time but he's basically the CF version of baez in that he has some issues with RHP and you want his glove in CF. Russell has shown some signs of being a good hitter but he's yet put it all together.

If Baez were your #8 hitter and effectively similar to a glove first SS only playing 2B I wouldn't have much issue with him playing vs RHP even if he doesn't improve. But what worries me a bit is it wouldn't be totally unrealistic to see Almora, Russell and Baez all in vs RHP and if all 3 don't take a step forward that could be a pretty weak 6-8. And again who knows what Heyward will do. That's sort of the reason I think the cubs may look to make an outside the box kinda deal for a SS be it another run at Machado or someone like Lindor. It would free some playing time for good bench bats like Zobrist and La Stella and it would strengthen the top 6 or so guys in the line up taking some of the pressure of the 7 and 8 guys.
 

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