It's time

[chibears55]

Ian Happ is the starting CFer and will be his job to lose...

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[beckdawg]

Ian Happ is the starting CFer and will be his job to lose...

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I'd really rather see him at 2B. I get that Baez complicates matters but color me old fashioned, I'd rather have a strong defensive CF. Happ is average and possibly below average in CF if you look at scouting. I do agree he'll basically be starting daily though. It's also why I feel like the cubs are going to need to figure something out about who stays soon. If Baez gets near full time playing time at 2B that is going mean Happ essentially has to play CF and that really stunts Almora's growth IMO. He struggled last year when he got sporadic playing time in April and May but when injuries started happening in May he really was very good from june on. I worry that is going to happen again.

 

[chibears55]

I'd really rather see him at 2B. I get that Baez complicates matters but color me old fashioned, I'd rather have a strong defensive CF. Happ is average and possibly below average in CF if you look at scouting. I do agree he'll basically be starting daily though. It's also why I feel like the cubs are going to need to figure something out about who stays soon. If Baez gets near full time playing time at 2B that is going mean Happ essentially has to play CF and that really stunts Almora's growth IMO. He struggled last year when he got sporadic playing time in April and May but when injuries started happening in May he really was very good from june on. I worry that is going to happen again.

My take...
As long as Happ hits all year and being a SH, he should stay in the lineup everyday whether it in CF 2B RF or LF

I just think as of right now he all but secured himself an opening day start in CF and should stay in the lineup as i said above as long as he continues to hit

I personally feel Maddon just dont care for or see Almora as an everyday player..
He played in 5 ST games and has just 13 AB.. (0 hits)
Maddon dropped him from leadoff to 6th/7th in order his last 3 games..

I think Maddon just likes him as a defensive bench guy




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[beckdawg]

My take...
As long as Happ hits all year and being a SH, he should stay in the lineup everyday whether it in CF 2B RF or LF

I just think as of right now he all but secured himself an opening day start in CF and should stay in the lineup as i said above as long as he continues to hit

I personally feel Maddon just dont care for or see Almora as an everyday player..
He played in 5 ST games and has just 13 AB.. (0 hits)
Maddon dropped him from leadoff to 6th/7th in order his last 3 games..

I think Maddon just likes him as a defensive bench guy




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Well like I said my issue with what you said wasn't that Happ would play a lot just I don't think it needs to be CF all the time. As for Maddon not liking Almora, I don't know one way or another but Theo specifically told Almora after the season they planned to increase his role form last year. Presumably Theo would have talked to Joe about this before telling Almora that.

Regardless, as I've said before i feel like something has to give here and by july someone needs to be moved. I don't mind having depth but sitting on the bench hurts these players development. Maybe we see an early season injury to someone that opens up time or something. I don't know but if everyone is healthy this doesn't seem sustainable to me.

 

[chibears55]

Well like I said my issue with what you said wasn't that Happ would play a lot just I don't think it needs to be CF all the time. As for Maddon not liking Almora, I don't know one way or another but Theo specifically told Almora after the season they planned to increase his role form last year. Presumably Theo would have talked to Joe about this before telling Almora that.

Regardless, as I've said before i feel like something has to give here and by july someone needs to be moved. I don't mind having depth but sitting on the bench hurts these players development. Maybe we see an early season injury to someone that opens up time or something. I don't know but if everyone is healthy this doesn't seem sustainable to me.

This was something i mentioned last off season, as far as someone being moved...
I used Baez as an example to where at some point he not going to be happy being that super sub guy off the bench and is going to want to play at one position everyday...
This year ill echo the same with Happ..

So, i agree with you that at some point their going to have to decide on who they want as everyday players or who to move on from..

I think it too late now to make such major moves but next off season were going to see some moves made, especially if they really want to try and add Harper..

Rotation set for next 3 years barring injuries, so their main focus next year will be settling their position players

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[CSF77]

I’m seeing it as Happ is crushing the ball and should get the playing time until he is not anymore. We saw him and Almora first. Almora got bumped down and Heyward was given a look. Pretty sure it will be Zo next when he returns.

I pretty much called “hitting lead off”. Will dictate playing time. Not top CF D.

Let’s face it they played Fowler there for 2 years and he was not what you call a D center piece. And these are the same guys running the show.

Kinda tells you what dictates things.

 

[CSF77]

I’m seeing it as Happ is crushing the ball and should get the playing time until he is not anymore. We saw him and Almora first. Almora got bumped down and Heyward was given a look. Pretty sure it will be Zo next when he returns.

I pretty much called “hitting lead off”. Will dictate playing time. Not top CF D.

Let’s face it they played Fowler there for 2 years and he was not what you call a D center piece. And these are the same guys running the show.

Kinda tells you what dictates things.

Anyways as far as Baez vs Almora. Fact we are even arguing it means neither are a lock or for that matter the starter.

When Zo gets back things should start to shake out on playing time allotment.

 

[CSF77]

This was something i mentioned last off season, as far as someone being moved...
I used Baez as an example to where at some point he not going to be happy being that super sub guy off the bench and is going to want to play at one position everyday...
This year ill echo the same with Happ..

So, i agree with you that at some point their going to have to decide on who they want as everyday players or who to move on from..

I think it too late now to make such major moves but next off season were going to see some moves made, especially if they really want to try and add Harper..

Rotation set for next 3 years barring injuries, so their main focus next year will be settling their position players

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Him being a 6th man increases his value more than being a starter. Every day means ranked against his peers and the holes in his game become glaring points. Moving around keeps his value high because he is viewed as in a pinch with out losing a beat.

Just saying. But sure if he comes out and has a 5 WAR season and closes the holes then they have to make him a starter. But that is on him to force it via production.

I look at it from what Happ is doing. He forced his way in to the team last year and now he is forcing the lead off. That is how decisions are made

 

[SilenceS]

Anyways as far as Baez vs Almora. Fact we are even arguing it means neither are a lock or for that matter the starter.

When Zo gets back things should start to shake out on playing time allotment.

What’s the argument? Baez is the superior player at this point. 23 homers. Both don’t walk. Baez make enough contact for higher average. I’m not sure why Cubs fans look at him like he is fringe. The difference between him being a superstar is walks. He “figures” how to walk. He is a superstar middle infielder. Joe even said as much. He also said he see’s Baez getting close to 600 at bats. I think this offense is going to be dynamite this year.


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[SilenceS]

Also, Happ doesn’t need as much range with Russell and Baez up the middle. He can play deeper because of their great range


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[CSF77]

Also, Happ doesn’t need as much range with Russell and Baez up the middle. He can play deeper because of their great range


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I look at WAR not HR’s. He put up a 2.2 in 500 PA’s. And I did say 5.0 WAR not 50 HR’s.

Just saying

2016 Russell put up over 5 WAR and his numbers were not too off from Baez’s that year. It was mostly D.

Now on Happ: he only had 400 PA’s and put up a 1.8 WAR. you give both 600 PA’s Happ is pushing 3.5 and Baez 3.0. That is if they have plateaued.

Just looking at Baez, Schwarber, Happ and Almora they are all about the same WAR value. That is the reason why this is debatable. Heyward and Russell have put up 5+ WAR seasons so their abilities are not in question. The others still have to prove that their talent is sound enough to make the next step.

Zo has and if healthy for a season could still. His ability is not in question. His health is.

That is where they are right now. All are about worth 3.0 WAR and on this team they are in a fight for playing time. That is why I’m saying that they have to force the issue.

 

[CSF77]

My bad. Russell had 3.9 on F.G. in 2016.

And he was a top 3 D SS that year.

Baez has a ways to go.

Just look at it from another perspectives. Contreras had 428 PA and accumulated 3.3 WAR. That is why he is the clean up and his job is not under debate. You push him to 600 PA’s his value goes up to Rizzo’s impact.

 

[chibears55]

I know it just ST but just by the numbers AB Hits Avg. , doesn't look like much change with Heyward..
Still popping out etc...

I mean , their in ST in Arizona where numbers are a bit inflated.. right?

Somewhat the same with Schwarber too

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[TC in Mississippi]

I know it just ST but just by the numbers AB Hits Avg. , doesn't look like much change with Heyward..
Still popping out etc...

I mean , their in ST in Arizona where numbers are a bit inflated.. right?

Somewhat the same with Schwarber too

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Schwarber has had 15 AB and is hitting .267 with a .421 OBP both of which are both not bad and totally meaningless at the same time. Heyward has 1 hit in 11 AB, also completely meaningless. What you don't know in ST is what anyone is working on. Schwarber hasn't hit a HR yet but he also might be working on his OBP and batting average right now. Heyward could be working strictly on mechanics or he could just be continuing to be bad. We simply don't know which renders the stats a curiously at best. Talk to me in two weeks.

 

[SilenceS]

Schwarber has had 15 AB and is hitting .267 with a .421 OBP both of which are both not bad and totally meaningless at the same time. Heyward has 1 hit in 11 AB, also completely meaningless. What you don't know in ST is what anyone is working on. Schwarber hasn't hit a HR yet but he also might be working on his OBP and batting average right now. Heyward could be working strictly on mechanics or he could just be continuing to be bad. We simply don't know which renders the stats a curiously at best. Talk to me in two weeks.

Nope, spring training means something. Jake Fox was the next slamming sammy


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[chibears55]

Schwarber has had 15 AB and is hitting .267 with a .421 OBP both of which are both not bad and totally meaningless at the same time. Heyward has 1 hit in 11 AB, also completely meaningless. What you don't know in ST is what anyone is working on. Schwarber hasn't hit a HR yet but he also might be working on his OBP and batting average right now. Heyward could be working strictly on mechanics or he could just be continuing to be bad. We simply don't know which renders the stats a curiously at best. Talk to me in two weeks.

Lol..
Guess you missed the part where i said i know it ST and was just looking at the numbers..lmao

I did hear from a writer who there watching the games..

He said..

Schwarber getting better but basically the same as far as his hitting and approach...

And Heyward, well nothing changed with him, he still looks the same up there and getting the same results...


Whether their working on something or not, they should be making good contact and driving the ball..
Something we havent seen from Heyward yet this Spring...

Im not counting him out, but it would be nice to see some sign of life from his bat

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[beckdawg]

What’s the argument? Baez is the superior player at this point. 23 homers. Both don’t walk. Baez make enough contact for higher average. I’m not sure why Cubs fans look at him like he is fringe. The difference between him being a superstar is walks. He “figures” how to walk. He is a superstar middle infielder. Joe even said as much. He also said he see’s Baez getting close to 600 at bats. I think this offense is going to be dynamite this year.


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Baez was worth 2.2 fWAR over 508 PAs last year. In 440 career PAs Almora has been worth 2 fWAR which if he were to have hit 508 PAs would be worth 2.3 fWAR. I know you're feelings enough to avoid getting into lengthy discussions on Baez. But I think you're underselling Almora here. And I think it's worth asking which is more likely? Baez taking another step forward after 1267 PAs or Almora taking his first step forward after 440?

Frankly comparing the two I get but I think they are offering you slightly different things. Obviously both offer a good glove. But by any definition Baez is a fairly free swinging slugger. Almora is a high contact guy. 34.2% of Baez's PA last year ended in a K or a walk. Almora was a 22.3%. The main reason I want to see Almora on the field more is the cubs really don't have many high contact guys like him. In 2016, that guy was Zobrist. Last year Zobrist was still good but they reduced his role. La Stella has that kind of profile but he's barely going to play. Heyward was good at this last year but as a .259 hitter the higher contact wasn't really yielding results for him. Almora hit .298 last year and his second half numbers vs RHP suggest there may be more there. Wouldn't be shocking to see him hit like .310. You put him as say you're #6 or so hitter behind a bunch of high on base guys and I think that's a recipe for success. And if Heyward also improves his average some you'll have 2 pretty good contact bats behind the best OBP the cubs have.

With Baez I don't know. I mean I'm not the most impartial guy on him but I feel like he's not a guy you count on in high leverage situations at bat. On his career, he's a .190/.207/.267(21 wRC+) in high leverage situations, .230/.284/.392(73 wRC+) in medium and .286/.329/.483(112 wRC+) in low leverage. His 2017 numbers mirror that sort of set up with him having a 68 wRC+ in high, 70 in medium and 125 in high medium and low. And for good measure if you look at his best year of 2016 he was at 0 wRC+, 78 and 126.

Main reason I point this out isn't necessarily because I think Baez is bad or anything. I just feel like you never know what he's going to do. And in my personal opinion I'd rather have Almora up there with 1-2 guys on base and 0-1 outs. Almora is more likely to put the ball in play which is more likely to yield a positive outcome. Baez could homer. He could strike out and give you nothing. And in that sense it sort of becomes feast or famine with him. And I'm not going to put words in anyones mouth but I know far to often people would complain about the cubs leaving runners on base last year. Baez isn't the only reason but he had a hand in it.

 

[CSF77]

Baez was worth 2.2 fWAR over 508 PAs last year. In 440 career PAs Almora has been worth 2 fWAR which if he were to have hit 508 PAs would be worth 2.3 fWAR. I know you're feelings enough to avoid getting into lengthy discussions on Baez. But I think you're underselling Almora here. And I think it's worth asking which is more likely? Baez taking another step forward after 1267 PAs or Almora taking his first step forward after 440?

Frankly comparing the two I get but I think they are offering you slightly different things. Obviously both offer a good glove. But by any definition Baez is a fairly free swinging slugger. Almora is a high contact guy. 34.2% of Baez's PA last year ended in a K or a walk. Almora was a 22.3%. The main reason I want to see Almora on the field more is the cubs really don't have many high contact guys like him. In 2016, that guy was Zobrist. Last year Zobrist was still good but they reduced his role. La Stella has that kind of profile but he's barely going to play. Heyward was good at this last year but as a .259 hitter the higher contact wasn't really yielding results for him. Almora hit .298 last year and his second half numbers vs RHP suggest there may be more there. Wouldn't be shocking to see him hit like .310. You put him as say you're #6 or so hitter behind a bunch of high on base guys and I think that's a recipe for success. And if Heyward also improves his average some you'll have 2 pretty good contact bats behind the best OBP the cubs have.

With Baez I don't know. I mean I'm not the most impartial guy on him but I feel like he's not a guy you count on in high leverage situations at bat. On his career, he's a .190/.207/.267(21 wRC+) in high leverage situations, .230/.284/.392(73 wRC+) in medium and .286/.329/.483(112 wRC+) in low leverage. His 2017 numbers mirror that sort of set up with him having a 68 wRC+ in high, 70 in medium and 125 in high medium and low. And for good measure if you look at his best year of 2016 he was at 0 wRC+, 78 and 126.

Main reason I point this out isn't necessarily because I think Baez is bad or anything. I just feel like you never know what he's going to do. And in my personal opinion I'd rather have Almora up there with 1-2 guys on base and 0-1 outs. Almora is more likely to put the ball in play which is more likely to yield a positive outcome. Baez could homer. He could strike out and give you nothing. And in that sense it sort of becomes feast or famine with him. And I'm not going to put words in anyones mouth but I know far to often people would complain about the cubs leaving runners on base last year. Baez isn't the only reason but he had a hand in it.

Baez held a 98 wRC+ which is below league avg. Happ 113 115 is above league avg. Almora 103 about league avg. Schwarber 102. Heyward 88. Russell 84. Zobrist 82. You pretty much have to weigh 100 as league avg. if they are below does their glove justify it. Zobrist no rest probley. Happ is above but seeing 3 guys below you really can’t sacrifice that many AB’s. Almora and Schwarber were league avg. Almora is acceptable due to the D. Schwarber is not

 

[fatbeard]

Early returns indicate the 2018 Cubs are going to win a shitload of baseball games.

 

[brett05]

Was a true statement long before the ST games started. They play in a bad division.