Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel traded to Oakland Athletics for Addison Russell plus

[beckdawg]

Really? I mean the way people talk around here. He is worth about half a peanut and some anal lube.

FWIW, I've been saying for awhile now that I thought he'd go for at least a top 25 player, a top 100 type and a 10-15 range prospect. Honestly, that might be low end.

 

[beckdawg]

So... just saw this

http://www.chicagonow.com/loxas-factor/2013/11/cubs-and-jays-could-be-close-on-samardzija-deal/

The latest is the Blue Jays and Cubs could be nearing a deal. Both parties are motivated, the Jays don't want other teams getting involved to create a bidding war.

The Jays know any package has to include top pitching prospect Aaron Sanchez. They also desperately want to go the trade route. Toronto doesn't want to lose any draft picks to acquire the pitching they seek.

Sanchez is a good start. I'm curious to see what the second biggest piece is though. If the #2 is Stroman or Osuna and the third piece is something like Gose.... that'd be a pretty big haul in my opinion. Not sure the cubs will get that but I know the reports are toronto may have soured on Gose.

 

[SilenceS]

So... just saw this

http://www.chicagonow.com/loxas-factor/2013/11/cubs-and-jays-could-be-close-on-samardzija-deal/





Sanchez is a good start. I'm curious to see what the second biggest piece is though. If the #2 is Stroman or Osuna and the third piece is something like Gose.... that'd be a pretty big haul in my opinion. Not sure the cubs will get that but I know the reports are toronto may have soured on Gose.

Eh, im not a fan of Gose. Ton of speed. But he hasnt shown he can get on base a lot and strikesout a ton.

 

[beckdawg]

Eh, im not a fan of Gose. Ton of speed. But he hasnt shown he can get on base a lot and strikesout a ton.

I look at him like an Olt like play. He's a guy they could bring in and give a starting spot in 2014. I'm not sure I'd want him being the #2 guy but if he's the 3rd best part I think I'm fine with gambling on him.

 

[beckdawg]

The Jeff Samardzija stuff hasn't died down much. The last one I heard was the Jays were offering 4 prospects, but no one is saying which 4. I don't think I'd want to loss both Stroman and Sanchez, but I don't see any 4 prospects that would do the job without them. I really want them to loss Stroman. Samardzija will be 29 in January. Over the past two seasons he's made 51 starts, totaling 388 innings, 394 strikeouts,

http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2013/11/26/5148174/tuesdays-rumors-round-up-samardzija-buehrle-navarro

 

[chibears55]

I heard the Dbacks have agreed to pay the cubs asking price but want to wait and see if they can get a better starter with their prospects. . which was believed to be david price.

looks as if once a deal or decision to hold onto price is made..should be open market for cubs to deal samrdzija ..

 

[CSF77]

I heard the Dbacks have agreed to pay the cubs asking price but want to wait and see if they can get a better starter with their prospects. . which was believed to be david price.

looks as if once a deal or decision to hold onto price is made..should be open market for cubs to deal samrdzija ..

Randall Delgado/Tyler Skaggs would be my price.

 

[beckdawg]

I heard the Dbacks have agreed to pay the cubs asking price but want to wait and see if they can get a better starter with their prospects. . which was believed to be david price.

looks as if once a deal or decision to hold onto price is made..should be open market for cubs to deal samrdzija ..

Where'd you hear that? I'm not doubting you just curious about the rumors as it's not something I'd seen and I like to keep tabs on this sort of thing.

I also saw this on mlbtraderumors

Kaplan points out that teams run a serious risk by waiting for resolution to the Masahiro Tanaka situation since teams that miss out on the Japanese standout will swarm on Samardzija and other alternatives. One NL scout suggested that if he were a GM and didn't have pockets deep enough to guarantee landing Tanaka, he'd give up more than he'd like to get the Cubs' hurler.

This basically what I've been saying for awhile now. When you consider the majority of pitchers are going to cost you a 1st round pick anyways it really helps Sharks value.

 

[Boobaby1]

Where'd you hear that? I'm not doubting you just curious about the rumors as it's not something I'd seen and I like to keep tabs on this sort of thing.

I also saw this on mlbtraderumors



This basically what I've been saying for awhile now. When you consider the majority of pitchers are going to cost you a 1st round pick anyways it really helps Sharks value.

It is almost a given that the Cubs will get someone to overpay for Shark if indeed this comes to fruition. Playoff teams become desperate, and even though prospects are highly touted, there is never a guarantee. That is the difference between Shark and some prospects.

The pitching prospect(s) that the Cubs do receive could be an ace, blow out his arm, be a middle of the rotation pitcher, back-end pitcher, reliever, or a bust. There is a lot that can go wrong with a prospect, but it's rare for things to go just right.

This is why teams deal prospects away all of the time.

 

[X]

That is the difference between Shark and some prospects.

The pitching prospect(s) that the Cubs do receive could be an ace, blow out his arm, be a middle of the rotation pitcher, back-end pitcher, reliever, or a bust.

I've seen every one of those as a possibility for Shark in the last 12 months. I'm not seeing much difference. :shrug:

I know the guy has low miles on his arm, and i know he's shown he can be a good pitcher for stretches...But I see him is a 2-3 tweener in terms of competitive starting rotation slots. :shrug:

 

[beckdawg]

It is almost a given that the Cubs will get someone to overpay for Shark if indeed this comes to fruition. Playoff teams become desperate, and even though prospects are highly touted, there is never a guarantee. That is the difference between Shark and some prospects.

The pitching prospect(s) that the Cubs do receive could be an ace, blow out his arm, be a middle of the rotation pitcher, back-end pitcher, reliever, or a bust. There is a lot that can go wrong with a prospect, but it's rare for things to go just right.

I would argue that top 100 ratings don't really do a good job in reflecting what pitchers are. I think fangraphs or bleedcubbieblue covered this recently in that a top 25 hitter and a top 25 pitcher aren't equivalent in value. In fact, hitters tend to be more valuable which is slightly counter intuitive because they are more projectable where as pitching even at the top levels is iffy. For pitcher it's more a case of which players have the best raw tools instead of who is the best "pitcher."

As for what the cubs will get you're right it's not a guarantee. But if we go back to say 2008 to allow for time to develop and take a 3 year look at the top 25 baseball america pitchers you get these guys

2008
3. Joba Chamberlain, rhp, Yankees
4. Clay Buchholz, rhp, Red Sox
7. Clayton Kershaw, lhp, Dodgers
8. Franklin Morales, lhp, Rockies
10. David Price, lhp, Rays
15. Jake McGee, lhp, Rays
17. Wade Davis, rhp, Rays
21. Rick Porcello, rhp, Tigers
24. Nick Adenhart, rhp, Angels

2007
1. Daisuke Matsuzaka, rhp, Red Sox
4. Phil Hughes, rhp, Yankees
5. Homer Bailey, rhp, Reds
10. Andrew Miller, lhp, Tigers
11. Tim Lincecum, rhp, Giants
16. Yovani Gallardo, rhp, Brewers
20. Mike Pelfrey, rhp, Mets
21. Matt Garza, rhp, Twins
23. Adam Miller, rhp, Indians

2006
6. Francisco Liriano, lhp, Twins
7. Chad Billingsley, rhp, Dodgers
8. Justin Verlander, rhp, Tigers
10. Matt Cain, rhp, Giants
22. Jon Lester, lhp, Red Sox
24. Bobby Jenks, rhp, White Sox

So, you have Bucholtz, Kershaw, Price, Lincecum, Garza, Verlander, Lester, Bailey and Cain as "front line starter." Joba, Jenks, McGee, Andrew Miller and Morales ended up bulllpen arms. Gallardo, Liriano, Porcello and Billingsley have been some where between front line and middle of the rotation. Pelfrey, Hughes, Matsuzaka and Wade Davis were back of the rotation guys. The only total busts were Adam Miller, and Adenhart.

Granted it's a bit of a small sample size here but 9/24 were 1/2 starters(38%), 5 were relievers(21%), 4 were in between(17%), 4 were back of the rotation/fringe starters(17%) and 2 were out right busts(8%). As such, I'm not sure if I'd use the word rare with regard to things going right as over this period if you got a top 25 guy you had a 50/50 shot of getting a guy similar to Shark(or better) and 38% shot at a front line guy.

That being said, this sort of shows to make the trade even halfway worth while the cubs need to get back at least a top 25 prospect and probably 2 top 100 players.

 

[CSF77]

I've seen every one of those as a possibility for Shark in the last 12 months. I'm not seeing much difference. :shrug:

I know the guy has low miles on his arm, and i know he's shown he can be a good pitcher for stretches...But I see him is a 2-3 tweener in terms of competitive starting rotation slots. :shrug:

200 IP/200 SO per has decent value. Fact he is healthy and a competor teams will want him. Right now the big 3 are Azl, TBJ and O's. I feel that that is also the the pecking order. But a total of 8 teams have been talking to Theo on this. I'm expecting him traded. Had to guess it would be the DB. They have major league ready SP and excess depth. Not to mention Shark would mesh well with their skipper. Both are gamers.

 

[CSF77]

Ya I agree with that list. For sure there are some busts out there. But a AAA player that is still on that list has a solid chance of making it vs an A ball player on the list.

From what I see: Bryant All Star. Baez holes in his game. Talent is there. Almora seems to be a lock. I'd bet he is pushing for 200 hits per. Soler I'll bet he makes it but will never be great. Alcantara and Szczur roll the dice. Edwards I bet becomes a BP arm. Johnson not sure. Like his make up not sure how good he will become. Rest pretty sure will bust out.

 

[brett05]

And we now have the market price for Jeff with the trade of Doug Fister. The Cubs can expect slightly less value than this deal realistically.

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[chibears55]

And we now have the market price for Jeff with the trade of Doug Fister. The Cubs can expect slightly less value than this deal realistically.

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not necessarily. . Cubs don't have to deal samardzija this off season, so if a team really wants him, the cubs can still get a good return.

 

[beckdawg]

And we now have the market price for Jeff with the trade of Doug Fister. The Cubs can expect slightly less value than this deal realistically.

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If that's "the going price" for pitchers than Shark wont be traded flat out and neither will Price. The nat's basically stole him from Detroit.

 

[brett05]

If that's "the going price" for pitchers than Shark wont be traded flat out and neither will Price. The nat's basically stole him from Detroit.

Has no influence on Price value

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[beckdawg]

Has no influence on Price value

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Sure it does. Teams who need pitching are the ones who over pay. If washington gets Fister cheaply then there's less teams in the market for pitching and less people to bid against in a trade.

 

[CSF77]

They are opening payroll to retain Scherzer.

If they had flexibility I doubt they make that deal.

Bottom line that deal was regarding future payroll not on return value.

I do not believe it affects the asking price on Shark. Theo doesn't have to trade him to open payroll.

 

[brett05]

They are opening payroll to retain Scherzer.

If they had flexibility I doubt they make that deal.

Bottom line that deal was regarding future payroll not on return value.

I do not believe it affects the asking price on Shark. Theo doesn't have to trade him to open payroll.

Neither did the Tigers.

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