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bears trade #1 to Carolina, receive the 9th pick and the panthers #1 in 2024 and 2025, bears use the 9th pick this year to select the top OL on their board
Enasic
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I like the premise but would want another 23 pick thrown in….2nd or 3rd rounder
cameronkrazie86
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I have no idea who Jeramiah is but to go from 1 to 9, I need early round picks this year as a supplement to the proposed trade above. The Bears need quality young players and prospects now in addition to obviously the coming years. If they give the Bears their 1sts in 2024 and 2025, I would also want in addition to 9, a 2nd and 3rd rounder. You want to move up 8 spots to the top of the draft for a QB? Give the Bears the godfather offer and nothing less.
Enasic
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Yeah, at least a 23 2nd.
#9, 2023 2nd, 2024 & 2025 1st. I could live with that. Maybe even a 2023 4th or 5th but would prob do the deal even without it if they include a 23 2nd.
cameronkrazie86
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The key is maximizing the value of the 1st pick to the fullest extent possible. By going from 1 to 9, you're almost certainly guaranteed to miss out on Anderson and Carter. So if I'm the GM and I'm missing out on that opportunity by dropping so far, the other trade partner really has got to overcompensate me to make that move. The last thing I want is the Bears to make the trade from 1 to 9 early in the process without trying to get that true godfather offer. If we're on draft day and that's truly the best trade offer, then yeah, you take it. But not until then imo.
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Would rather get Derrick Brown from them as well.
Enasic
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Yeah, I’m holding out as long as possible unless offered something crazy. This CAR deal would not be it. Overall, it’s a nice deal, but I agree, I wouldn’t make the deal unless it’s on draft day and there’s nothing better out there
greg23
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The Bears should trade down (once or multiple times) to get in a position to draft an OL where it makes sense in this draft (skoronski is my pref for LG in the 7-9 range) in addition to adding multiple picks this year and ideally next year.
In a perfect world they trade with hou to #2 prior to the draft (and #33 +) and then on draft day trade #2 to another team desperate to jump up for the 2nd qb
In a perfect world they trade with hou to #2 prior to the draft (and #33 +) and then on draft day trade #2 to another team desperate to jump up for the 2nd qb
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1st pick = 3000 points
9th pick = 1350 points
2024 1st = 510 points
2025 1st = 510 points
Combined = 2370.
So Panthers still 630 short. So probably need to throw in 39 = 510 points and 93 = 128 which adds another 628. If I am the Bears I probably ask for 64 = 292 instead of 93 as expect a bit of an overpay.
9th pick = 1350 points
2024 1st = 510 points
2025 1st = 510 points
Combined = 2370.
So Panthers still 630 short. So probably need to throw in 39 = 510 points and 93 = 128 which adds another 628. If I am the Bears I probably ask for 64 = 292 instead of 93 as expect a bit of an overpay.
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3 first rounders plus a 23 second rounder would be a ridiculous haul for moving from 1 to 9.
dabears70
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Yeah i'm wanting a 2023 2nd almost as bad as i want that 2024 1st in any trade to replace the one we gave up for Claypool. I don't want to make our 1st pick and then have to wait until pick #54 to make our next pick.
dennehy
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If you actually believe the trade chart, but there really isn't much reason to, especially with future first rounders. 23 #9 and 39 plus 2 first additional firsts is a haul.
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There was a study down that showed that teams did appear to discount 1st rounders in a trade. They also found that 1st rounders 2 years away ie 2025 first rounder appear to still only ne discpunted 1 round.
How Teams Value Draft Picks - ProFootballLogic
www.profootballlogic.com
And the JJ trade chart is still largely used. Teams have refined the original regression analysis but it is pretty much still the baseline.
But of course much of this will be driven by demand. Obviously if the Panthers offer is the best without the other picks then I probably still.make that deal.
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He’s probably referring to Daniel Jeremiah. NFL.com writer.
RacerX
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Nah, you know better, you can toss the precedent model out the window, the value of the #1 overall (as well as other first round picks) is 100% dictated by supply and demand.
Based on the supply and demand in 2023, it is a near certainty that if/when the bears trade the #1 pick they will not receive as much return consideration as the precedent point model indicates.
dennehy
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I didn't dispute that future picks are devalued. But it makes clear right in the link that very high picks don't really work with the regression, or that they don't have enough data to say.
I think there is some value to the chart, but not a point to point basis, again especially with very high picks.
If they did trade wtih CAR, I'd expect something like #9, 39, 64, 24 1st, 24 3rd or so.
dennehy
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Agreed.
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We have no real data on supply and demand right now so that is just pure speculation right now. I simply was presenting value based on the trade value chart. No point arguing about supply and demand until we see how these QBs shake out post combine and workouts.
Again was not saying this is what would happen. Was just saying this is what a fair trade will look like using the chart.
When the Niners traded up 9 spots from 12 to 3 they gave up 2355 per the chart (3 firsts and a 3rd rounder) and the 3rd pick was worth 2200. So again the chart is being used as some sort of baseline as there is plenty of evidence trades are consistent with the chart. So 3 firsts and a 2nd and 3rd is not impossible as 1st pick is worth 3000 compared to 2200 for 3rd pick. It is also possibke they get less. We dont know.
In the end it will come down to how many teams they have to outbid and whether the Bears are fine with losing out on Carter or Anderson by dropping all the way to 9.
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TL1961
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They also say that when a QB is involved there is typically about a 20% premium on top of the trade chart values.
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It's accurate on what it should be
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