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If there's any sort of life in that water just imagine what could be under that ice on Europa...science is so cool.
If there's any sort of life in that water just imagine what could be under that ice on Europa...science is so cool.
If there's any sort of life in that water just imagine what could be under that ice on Europa...science is so cool.
But,considering the vastness of the universe and,hell, our own galaxy, I would be very surprised if panspermia events only occurred where we are. There are likely thousands if not millions of solar systems that are quite similar to ours.If we find life on Mars it still doesn't tell the big picture. If creation is based on a panspermia event then it is possible that event only happened in our neck of the woods on some unknowable scale. If life can pop up purely based on the events of planet formation, then life could be ridiculously abundant.
If we find life should be abundant and can realistically calculate the odds of intelligent life.......then you can fear the great filter.....
the only hope beyond the great filter on that is that the entire galactic community have all chosen to ignore us on purpose and have the technology to keep us from seeing them.....
No I don't. In alegbra, If I know X (e.g. all the other components in the equation such as size of universe, age,) and I know the solution ie I want Z to be 0 then I can solve for Y.
In the article they are estimating all the other variables they can ie X and they know that Z is going to be 0 so they are solving for Y. Y in this case is the number 1 over 10 to the 22 power that civilized life has to be under in order to return 0 for Z.
Like this is basic math. They know other variables and they know the answer they want ie Z = 0 so they can calculate what Y has to be. That doesn't mean Y is actually 1 over 10 the 22 power. They are not actually calculating the true probability of Y. They are simply saying that as long as Y is not less than 1 over 10 to the power of 22 then life exists.
Get it yet? If not, ask you kid's algebra teacher as I honestly don't understand why this is hard to grasp unless you didn't actually read the article. I don't know what the probability of abiogenesis is. And nor do I need to because I am solving for that variable. All I know is it has to be less than 1 over 10 to the power of 22. I have no idea if it is or not. I just know if that is what it has to be then that is a very tiny fucking number.
But,considering the vastness of the universe and,hell, our own galaxy, I would be very surprised if panspermia events only occurred where we are. There are likely thousands if not millions of solar systems that are quite similar to ours.
But, at the same time, understanding the mechanisms involved with how life got to Earth(and Mars in the scenario) is important.
If life can exist on multiple planets within the same solar system, where one would probably not seem habitable if we were viewing it from a longer distance(say, from outside our solar system), that seems to suggest that life may be able to take root more easily than we thought.
If that is true, even if,say, the development of higher order thinking once life has developed on a planet is a billion to one odds, you will still get countless intelligent species on countless planets. We still don't know how rare that would be, necessarily, but it means that,even if it is rare, it's more likely to occur based on the scale of the observable universe than we thought before.
There's obviously still a lot of question marks in terms of how life can develop on other planets, and how we can find them. But life on Mars, even if it's just extremophiles would provide some interesting insight.
You believe you know enough to draw an accurate conclusion on the probability of life. You and I are in disagreement on how much abiogensis comes into play and how much it inherently means to what the chances of life are in the Universe and any type of accurate calculation of probability.
Minus your condescending posts, thanks for the talk....
Again Y is not an accurate conclusion on the probability of life. It is simply what the probability of life has to be less than to return 0 for Z. The scientist is not claiming that the probability of life is 1 over 10 to the power of 22. The scientist is saying if the probability of life is less than that number then we are the first advanced civilization in the universe.
This is not condescension. This is extreme frustration over you continually misrepresenting the argument and me thinking you are smart enough to understand the distinction. So I am left to conclude that you are pretending you don't get it because you failed to actually read the article and didn't realize it was not trying to accurately determine the probability of life.
No one in the article claims to know the actual probability of life. They claim to have calculated how small that probability of life has to be in order for us to be alone in the universe. That is a huge difference which again I am not sure why you don't grasp.
X / Y > Z
10 / Y > 10
If I ask you what Y has to be in order for Z to be greater than 10 then there are an infinite number of answers. I don't know what Y is. All I know is that Y has to be less than 1 because if it is 1 or higher then the answer will be 10 or less.
This is what they did. They have no fucking clue what the probability of life is. All they did was calculate a limit to what Y could be in order to solve the equation.
So what is confusing about this? I don't need to know anything about abiogenesis to solve for the above equation because again I am not trying to calculate the actual probability. All I am trying to tell you is what Y cannot be. It can't be 1 or more than 1.
Remy we are just repeating...we are not going to find common ground.
Without knowledge of the likelihood of non-Earth abiogenesis or abiogenesis in general, all these numbers on the probably of life or lack there of are coming straight out of humans asses and are meaningless.
I think that a lot of people are missing the fundamental point here. If life is found on Mars, then it is proven that life is not unique to our planet, which then increases the probability that it also exists in other solar systems, galaxies, etc etc, by a great magnitude, not to mention the biblical implications. One doesn't need to know the probability or rate of occurance to concede that point.
What biblical implications would there be?
What biblical implications would there be?
Seriously?
I think that a lot of people are missing the fundamental point here. If life is found on Mars, then it is proven that life is not unique to our planet, which then increases the probability that it also exists in other solar systems, galaxies, etc etc, by a great magnitude, not to mention the biblical implications. One doesn't need to know the probability or rate of occurance to concede that point.
Seriously