#MLBFrontOffice: What's next for the Cubs?

[brett05]

Who told you he's being offered the QO?

Would you want to pay a guy $16.5M when his ERA was 5.00?

Of course not, but it would appear near the end he figured it out.

There is no official word at this time of a QO. Absolutely anticipating it.

 

[DanTown]

Of course not, but it would appear near the end he figured it out.

There is no official word at this time of a QO. Absolutely anticipating it.

It's too large a deal for the Sox to risk. If he takes it (and I can't imagine he wouldn't because he has no long term market), they'd be at 100 million for 9 guys
(Abreu, Danks, Robertson, Cabrera, LaRoche, Sale, Quintana, Eaton, Duke, Shark).

 

[brett05]

It's too large a deal for the Sox to risk. If he takes it (and I can't imagine he wouldn't because he has no long term market), they'd be at 100 million for 9 guys
(Abreu, Danks, Robertson, Cabrera, LaRoche, Sae, Quintana, Eaton, Duke, Shark).

If Edwin got a deal, there absolutely is a market for Shark.
The White Sox can afford it.
Danks and Laroche are gone no later than first week Nov 2016.
That said, as has been stated here many times, no one has ever accepted the QO.

If Shark did for some reason take the QO and he did figure it out as his last couple of starts may indicate, the White Sox have the best staff in baseball.

 

[DanTown]

If Edwin got a deal, there absolutely is a market for Shark.
The White Sox can afford it.
Danks and Laroche are gone no later than first week Nov 2016.
That said, as has been stated here many times, no one has ever accepted the QO.

If Shark did for some reason take the QO and he did figure it out as his last couple of starts may indicate, the White Sox have the best staff in baseball.

Sigh. If Shark gets offered the QO, there are two options

Option 1 - He takes the deal (that's bad for the Sox)
Option 2 - He rejects the QO and tries to sign elsewhere (but will cost a team a first round pick if they're outside the top 10 of the draft)

I mean Shark has no real reason to reject the QO if he gets it because he can rebuild his value next year. If he rejects it and goes to FA, he's at the bottom of the SP market and he'll cost draft pick compensation when guys like Price, Cueto, Leake won't. Considering Shields had to wait for the Padres and even then he got less (4/75) than he thought. I mean the only SP who got above 15 million a year last year were Lester, Scherzer, and Shields and the Shields was an overpay the moment it happened.

Also, just like that rotation was to be one of the best in baseball this year, right?

 

[brett05]

Sigh. If Shark gets offered the QO, there are two options

Option 1 - He takes the deal (that's bad for the Sox)
Option 2 - He rejects the QO and tries to sign elsewhere (but will cost a team a first round pick if they're outside the top 10 of the draft)

I mean Shark has no real reason to reject the QO if he gets it because he can rebuild his value next year. If he rejects it and goes to FA, he's at the bottom of the SP market and he'll cost draft pick compensation when guys like Price, Cueto, Leake won't. Considering Shields had to wait for the Padres and even then he got less (4/75) than he thought. I mean the only SP who got above 15 million a year last year were Lester, Scherzer, and Shields and the Shields was an overpay the moment it happened.

Also, just like that rotation was to be one of the best in baseball this year, right?

Shark outside of what he did for 80% of the 2015 season is a pitcher in the class of Shields. Pitching always goes up. I can't see anyway Shark doesn't get $17 million per for at least a three year deal. And if he rejects and decides to build a one year resume he'll be able to do it with one of the top 20 teams without question IMO. It happens all the year with less.

 

[DanTown]

Shark outside of what he did for 80% of the 2015 season is a pitcher in the class of Shields. Pitching always goes up. I can't see anyway Shark doesn't get $17 million per for at least a three year deal. And if he rejects and decides to build a one year resume he'll be able to do it with one of the top 20 teams without question IMO. It happens all the year with less.

Really? I'd like a list of the SP who had a 4.23 FIP then went to FA, cost draft pick compensation, and got a long term deal. Because it simply doesn't happen much with pitchers of that class. No one is going to risk long term money+ a draft pick on him like that, especially because he relies on throwing hard to get guys out.

 

[brett05]

Really? I'd like a list of the SP who had a 4.23 FIP then went to FA, cost draft pick compensation, and got a long term deal. Because it simply doesn't happen much with pitchers of that class. No one is going to risk long term money+ a draft pick on him like that, especially because he relies on throwing hard to get guys out.

Or a single year.

EDIT: Edwin Jackson???

EDIT2: Cubs did not lose a pick IIRC, it was protected. Ubaldo Jimenez.

 

[DanTown]

Or a single year.

EDIT: Edwin Jackson???

EDIT2: Cubs did not lose a pick IIRC, it was protected. Ubaldo Jimenez.

Cubs signed Edwin Jackson to a 4/52 deal (so again, less than a QO on a yearly basis) after FIP's of

3.86
3.55
3.85

He was signed to be an innings eater. And that deal blew up in their face. And Edwin Jackson wasn't offered a QO.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ying-offer-to-adam-laroche-not-edwin-jackson/

The Nationals did not make a qualifying offer to starter Edwin Jackson, which means they will receive nothing if he signs elsewhere. The decision seemingly cuts the cord between the Nationals and Jackson – if they do not want to risk paying him $13.3 million for one year, they will not be competitive for his services on the free agent market.

The QO SIGNIFICANTLY hurts a pitchers market (think of guys like Kyle Loshe going unsigned). Are you aware of that? And that because the QO hurts a pitcher's market, questionable pitchers like Jeff S. (who have an incentive to rebuild their value) don't mind it.

And again, there are pitchers who are clearly superior (Price, Cueto) who won't cost compensation and then similar pitchers (Leake, Happ) who also won't cost a draft pick.

 

[brett05]

Shark > Leake and Happ

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Shark > Leake and Happ

I agree with you. Samardzija is likely 5th on the list of FA pitching this year after Price, Greinke, Cueto and Zimmerman and above Kazmir, Leake, Happ, Gallardo and Fister. Shark's pitch selection was pretty suspect in 2015 relying way to much on his cutter. Teams are going to see that as easily fixed and will consider him a solid #3 that could outperform that. MOR pitchers make between $15-$19 mil. If it's years he wants I'd guess 5/$75 is close, if it's money somebody might go 3/$57 with options. Now looking at it from Samardzija's point of view, as a guy who has bet on himself, if it's years he wants he may very well accept a QO because he'd' be well paid at $16.5 and if he has a great year, gets the ERA back around 3.0, his WHIP around 1.1 and gets his K's back up he'll probably get that same 5 year offer but at more money next year. Say 5/$85. So from where he sits he has an opportunity to make $101 mil over 6 years if he accepts a QO. With what we know of his personality he just might do that. The question is can the Sox risk that? I say they can't with a rotation of Sale, Rodon, Quintana, Fulmer or Johnson and Danks. With what Johnson showed in September and the coming of Fulmer it's likely Shark would be one too many at the party, unless they were to deal Quintana. I'm guessing there's a lot of soul searching on that QO right about now.

To go along with that here's my best bets on what the top pitchers sign for (assuming Samardzija is not offered/does not accept the QO):

Price- 7/$230 and a team either front loads the deal or does a Sherzer type deferred deal.
Greinke- 6/$190-$200
Cueto- 7/$160
Zimmerman- 6/$120
Samardzija- 5/$75
Kazmir- 4/$60
Happ- 4/$55

 

[brett05]

I agree with you. Samardzija is likely 5th on the list of FA pitching this year after Price, Greinke, Cueto and Zimmerman and above Kazmir, Leake, Happ, Gallardo and Fister. Shark's pitch selection was pretty suspect in 2015 relying way to much on his cutter. Teams are going to see that as easily fixed and will consider him a solid #3 that could outperform that. MOR pitchers make between $15-$19 mil. If it's years he wants I'd guess 5/$75 is close, if it's money somebody might go 3/$57 with options. Now looking at it from Samardzija's point of view, as a guy who has bet on himself, if it's years he wants he may very well accept a QO because he'd' be well paid at $16.5 and if he has a great year, gets the ERA back around 3.0, his WHIP around 1.1 and gets his K's back up he'll probably get that same 5 year offer but at more money next year. Say 5/$85. So from where he sits he has an opportunity to make $101 mil over 6 years if he accepts a QO. With what we know of his personality he just might do that. The question is can the Sox risk that? I say they can't with a rotation of Sale, Rodon, Quintana, Fulmer or Johnson and Danks. With what Johnson showed in September and the coming of Fulmer it's likely Shark would be one too many at the party, unless they were to deal Quintana. I'm guessing there's a lot of soul searching on that QO right about now.

To go along with that here's my best bets on what the top pitchers sign for (assuming Samardzija is not offered/does not accept the QO):

Price- 7/$230 and a team either front loads the deal or does a Sherzer type deferred deal.
Greinke- 6/$190-$200
Cueto- 7/$160
Zimmerman- 6/$120
Samardzija- 5/$75
Kazmir- 4/$60
Happ- 4/$55

Given that no player has ever accepted the QO, I think he passes. I also think it's a risk worth taking. If Shark did accept and he did correct himself it would be Danks in the pen or a trade to happen as you suggested with Q or Danks more than likely.

My only difference with your projections is Jeff gets $85 (avg 17 per.)

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Given that no player has ever accepted the QO, I think he passes. I also think it's a risk worth taking. If Shark did accept and he did correct himself it would be Danks in the pen or a trade to happen as you suggested with Q or Danks more than likely.

My only difference with your projections is Jeff gets $85 (avg 17 per.)

I'm not sure he accepts the QO either, but it is a gamble for the Sox. Samardzija bet on himself turning down the 5/$85 the Cub were said to have offered 16 months ago and he either lost the bet or broke even. I don't disagree that he could get exactly that. I also think it could very well be the Cubs. Unless they wanted to go up to the Zimmerman money I think he's the best fit.

 

[brett05]

I'm not sure he accepts the QO either, but it is a gamble for the Sox. Samardzija bet on himself turning down the 5/$85 the Cub were said to have offered 16 months ago and he either lost the bet or broke even. I don't disagree that he could get exactly that. I also think it could very well be the Cubs. Unless they wanted to go up to the Zimmerman money I think he's the best fit.

As long as Shark mends the fences, I think he's the perfect fit for the Cubs. Unfortunately Shark did his best to burn fences when leaving.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

Man, 5-years and $75M for Shark sounds awfully risky. He was just too brutal this year. It's tough to stay in the majors with a 5.00 ERA. I understand his pitch selection might have been poor and Bosio can help -- but he's coming off a really, really bad year. And to pony up a deal that long in length -- it just makes me nervous.

If he wants a 3-year deal, fine maybe we can swallow it. But I'd be really wary of that many years to a guy who didn't even pitch like a 5th starter.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Man, 5-years and $75M for Shark sounds awfully risky. He was just too brutal this year. It's tough to stay in the majors with a 5.00 ERA. I understand his pitch selection might have been poor and Bosio can help -- but he's coming off a really, really bad year. And to pony up a deal that long in length -- it just makes me nervous.

If he wants a 3-year deal, fine maybe we can swallow it. But I'd be really wary of that many years to a guy who didn't even pitch like a 5th starter.

I just don't think he's any different a guy than the Cubs thought he was 16 months ago. The issue was that he thought he was a #1 starter, the Cubs thought he was at best a fringy #2 and most suited as a solid #3. What he had this season was a really bad middle of the season. He started out OK and finished well. Take away his 3 worst games and the conversation is completely different. He's 30 years old and has less pitches and innings on his arm than most 30 year olds. Guys at his age just don't fall off that fast and he'd be going to back to a pitching coach that will let him do what comes naturally. Is he a risk? Sure, but I'd argue no more of one than he was 16 months ago.

Let me ask you this; if the Cubs had to trade Soler for a young arm, say Danny Salazar, signed Heyward and Samardzija and spent the same money they would have to spend for David Price would you be happy with that? There are indications that Heyward wants to shoot for two paydays meaning he would be amenable to a 6 year deal making him a FA again at 32, I'd say $150 mil. We've established Shark at 5 years between $75-$85 million. David Price is going to get north of $220 million. That makes a standard lineup next year look something like this (not taking into account Maddon's situational changes):

Heyward CF
Schwarber LF
Bryant RF
Rizzo 1B
Castro 2B
Baez 3B
Montero C
Russell SS

Rotation:

Arrieta
Lester
Samardzija
Salazar
Hendricks or Hammel

Tell me that wouldn't look awfully good depending on what kind of depth they end up with. Plus with $150 mil of that $225-$230 mil expenditure going to a position player who will hit his prime years in the middle-end of his contract as opposed to a pitcher who will likely have 4 good years out of 7 you're talking a much better risk/reward probability. I'm not saying they're going to do exactly that but something similar wouldn't surprise me.

 

[CSF77]

Shark would be a fit if he bounces back. I just do not see Theo losing a draft pick over it. Has more to do with the cash allotment vs the potential player.

End of the day I believe if they sign a free agent it will be Price. They showed they will spend even in a year that they were not expecting to break .500. This year they are looking like a favorite and have to respond this off season.

When Theo said he was targeting a pitcher as his top priority I doubt shark goes over well.

All of the signs are pointing to a reunion with Price and Maddon. If his price tag gets out of control then plan B is trade for a young controllable ace type.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Shark would be a fit if he bounces back. I just do not see Theo losing a draft pick over it. Has more to do with the cash allotment vs the potential player.

End of the day I believe if they sign a free agent it will be Price. They showed they will spend even in a year that they were not expecting to break .500. This year they are looking like a favorite and have to respond this off season.

When Theo said he was targeting a pitcher as his top priority I doubt shark goes over well.

All of the signs are pointing to a reunion with Price and Maddon. If his price tag gets out of control then plan B is trade for a young controllable ace type.

Pretty much all the indications is that the Cubs won't spend on Price. I simply think the price tag is too high. I think they'll sign a #3 bet it Samardzija, Kazmir or maybe Zimmerman and trade for a cost controlled younger pitcher. I could be wrong but I just don't see spending those astronomical dollars on Price.

 

[Hammer]

IMO, they pumped up Shark's value and traded him away to the highest bidder, they won't go anywhere near him again.

Considering TOR FA targets Price will go for $30-35M per, Greinke and Cueto for $25-30M, and Zimmerman for around $20-25M per.

Btw. I don't think Epstein would be willing to lose any his top prospects in a trade if he can just dive into the FA market and get another TOR pitcher the team needs, especially since they have enough money for it.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

I just don't think he's any different a guy than the Cubs thought he was 16 months ago. The issue was that he thought he was a #1 starter, the Cubs thought he was at best a fringy #2 and most suited as a solid #3. What he had this season was a really bad middle of the season. He started out OK and finished well. Take away his 3 worst games and the conversation is completely different. He's 30 years old and has less pitches and innings on his arm than most 30 year olds. Guys at his age just don't fall off that fast and he'd be going to back to a pitching coach that will let him do what comes naturally. Is he a risk? Sure, but I'd argue no more of one than he was 16 months ago.

Let me ask you this; if the Cubs had to trade Soler for a young arm, say Danny Salazar, signed Heyward and Samardzija and spent the same money they would have to spend for David Price would you be happy with that? There are indications that Heyward wants to shoot for two paydays meaning he would be amenable to a 6 year deal making him a FA again at 32, I'd say $150 mil. We've established Shark at 5 years between $75-$85 million. David Price is going to get north of $220 million. That makes a standard lineup next year look something like this (not taking into account Maddon's situational changes):

Heyward CF
Schwarber LF
Bryant RF
Rizzo 1B
Castro 2B
Baez 3B
Montero C
Russell SS

Rotation:

Arrieta
Lester
Samardzija
Salazar
Hendricks or Hammel

Tell me that wouldn't look awfully good depending on what kind of depth they end up with. Plus with $150 mil of that $225-$230 mil expenditure going to a position player who will hit his prime years in the middle-end of his contract as opposed to a pitcher who will likely have 4 good years out of 7 you're talking a much better risk/reward probability. I'm not saying they're going to do exactly that but something similar wouldn't surprise me.

I have to say, that line up would be nasty. That would be a heck of an off-season. I agree I'd rather have Hayward/Shark than just Price.

 

[DanTown]

Samardzija- 5/$75
Kazmir- 4/$60
Happ- 4/$55

so you're telling me that some team would rather have Shark and give up a first than have Kazmir or Happ (both guys won't cost a pick) or go after a cheap option like Fister that won't have compensation tied to him?