#MLBFrontOffice: What's next for the Cubs?

[CSF77]

If they are looking at a #3 type and are willing to lose their 1st round they would target Zimmerman over the rest.

Kaz is another interesting option also as he will cost no pick but I question him being an impact signing. I see him as a 4 to be honest. Say they trade Hammel then sign Kaz as the 4 ahead of Hendricks.

I believe they keep it simple. Fix Hammel intending on trading him at the deadline. Sign a upgrade to Hammel to push him back. When fixed Hammel is better than Kaz. Not better than Zimmerman.

So Zimmerman may end up a target

 

[TC in Mississippi]

so you're telling me that some team would rather have Shark and give up a first than have Kazmir or Happ (both guys won't cost a pick) or go after a cheap option like Fister that won't have compensation tied to him?

Samardzija has less innings on his arm than either of those guys and is younger than both (Kazmir 31, Happ 33). Even with the compensatory pick I think he's worth significantly more than those pitchers. This is a guy that put up stellar numbers, in both leagues a year ago. I don't think even a horrific stretch in the middle of the season diminishes him to the point where he's going to cost less than older pitchers. I actually in my estimates have he and Kazmir making the same AAV but one less year for Kazmir due to age. Happ's numbers aren't close to either guy despite a nice half season with Pittsburgh. I think they both are lesser pitchers with less upside than Shark, who I've never believed was a TOR but slots perfectly as a #3. The fact that they are lefties elevates Happ and Kazmir to more money than they would get if they were righties based on teh numbers. I also think this a unique situation where the White Sox do not offer the QO. I don't think they can afford the chance that he would take it.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

If they are looking at a #3 type and are willing to lose their 1st round they would target Zimmerman over the rest.

Kaz is another interesting option also as he will cost no pick but I question him being an impact signing. I see him as a 4 to be honest. Say they trade Hammel then sign Kaz as the 4 ahead of Hendricks.

I believe they keep it simple. Fix Hammel intending on trading him at the deadline. Sign a upgrade to Hammel to push him back. When fixed Hammel is better than Kaz. Not better than Zimmerman.

So Zimmerman may end up a target

If they don't sign Heyward, which I think they will, then I see Zimmerman as a target. I can see them spending $230 mil this offseason. I can't see them spending $270 (Heyward $150, Zimmerman $120).

 

[brett05]

I just don't think he's any different a guy than the Cubs thought he was 16 months ago. The issue was that he thought he was a #1 starter, the Cubs thought he was at best a fringy #2 and most suited as a solid #3. What he had this season was a really bad middle of the season. He started out OK and finished well. Take away his 3 worst games and the conversation is completely different. He's 30 years old and has less pitches and innings on his arm than most 30 year olds. Guys at his age just don't fall off that fast and he'd be going to back to a pitching coach that will let him do what comes naturally. Is he a risk? Sure, but I'd argue no more of one than he was 16 months ago.

Actually this was the problem. Shark was doing what came naturally to him which was avoiding help from staff and video. He eventually at the end sought help and it looks as if he got corrected.

 

[Chief Walking Stick]

My point was to get Sale and then sign Hayward so you actually dont lose much if anything in Offense

Herp Derp

 

[hester247]

Herp Derp

The Derp force is strong with this young padawan

 

[CSF77]

Actually this was the problem. Shark was doing what came naturally to him which was avoiding help from staff and video. He eventually at the end sought help and it looks as if he got corrected.

I don't like the fact he lacks a breaking pitch. His out pitch is a split. If that is off his B game is cutter. As we have seen he tends to get wrecked those days.

He really needs a curve or slider to mix in.

 

[CSF77]

If they don't sign Heyward, which I think they will, then I see Zimmerman as a target. I can see them spending $230 mil this offseason. I can't see them spending $270 (Heyward $150, Zimmerman $120).

Only way they go after Heyward is if they plan on him starting 2016 in CF. then 2017 they move Schwarber to catch and promote Almora. Move Heyward to RF and Soler to LF.

Now I don't see it as Theo stated a starter is the top priority. Heyward should command the biggest payday this off season so that would be concidered a out from left deal.

I do not believe that they will place resource into a system strength. Pitching is a system weakness. Common sense shows us that there is were the resource needs to go

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Only way they go after Heyward is if they plan on him starting 2016 in CF. then 2017 they move Schwarber to catch and promote Almora. Move Heyward to RF and Soler to LF.

Now I don't see it as Theo stated a starter is the top priority. Heyward should command the biggest payday this off season so that would be concidered a out from left deal.

I do not believe that they will place resource into a system strength. Pitching is a system weakness. Common sense shows us that there is were the resource needs to go

I think Soler will be traded for a pitcher, Bryant starts in RF for 2016, Baez at 3B. Almora comes up in 2017 and things sort themselves out wtih Heyward moving to LF. I think they sign a pitcher but I think it's Samardzija, possibly Kazmir.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I just don't think he's any different a guy than the Cubs thought he was 16 months ago. The issue was that he thought he was a #1 starter, the Cubs thought he was at best a fringy #2 and most suited as a solid #3. What he had this season was a really bad middle of the season. He started out OK and finished well. Take away his 3 worst games and the conversation is completely different. He's 30 years old and has less pitches and innings on his arm than most 30 year olds. Guys at his age just don't fall off that fast and he'd be going to back to a pitching coach that will let him do what comes naturally. Is he a risk? Sure, but I'd argue no more of one than he was 16 months ago.

Let me ask you this; if the Cubs had to trade Soler for a young arm, say Danny Salazar, signed Heyward and Samardzija and spent the same money they would have to spend for David Price would you be happy with that? There are indications that Heyward wants to shoot for two paydays meaning he would be amenable to a 6 year deal making him a FA again at 32, I'd say $150 mil. We've established Shark at 5 years between $75-$85 million. David Price is going to get north of $220 million. That makes a standard lineup next year look something like this (not taking into account Maddon's situational changes):

Heyward CF
Schwarber LF
Bryant RF
Rizzo 1B
Castro 2B
Baez 3B
Montero C
Russell SS

Rotation:

Arrieta
Lester
Samardzija
Salazar
Hendricks or Hammel

Tell me that wouldn't look awfully good depending on what kind of depth they end up with. Plus with $150 mil of that $225-$230 mil expenditure going to a position player who will hit his prime years in the middle-end of his contract as opposed to a pitcher who will likely have 4 good years out of 7 you're talking a much better risk/reward probability. I'm not saying they're going to do exactly that but something similar wouldn't surprise me.

Baez is not proven at all. Soler is missing from that lineup.

 

[CSF77]

Again I'm not sure that they will trade for pitching when the market is deep. My opinion is if they do trade for a pitcher it is because they decided to ink a multi year deal to Fowler. That way they can save resource to do so.

But from what Theo said. He said he wanted to strengthen D and contact hitting. Situational hitting. It starts in ST. Now reading into it it leads me to think that they want to improve the D in CF.

A easy fix would be to offer A. Jackson a 1 year deal to bridge to Almora.

Another thing is he keyed into added flexibility for Maddon. So it wouldn't surprise me if they went after Zoberist to lead off and play some CF.

 

[DanTown]

Again I'm not sure that they will trade for pitching when the market is deep. My opinion is if they do trade for a pitcher it is because they decided to ink a multi year deal to Fowler. That way they can save resource to do so.

But from what Theo said. He said he wanted to strengthen D and contact hitting. Situational hitting. It starts in ST. Now reading into it it leads me to think that they want to improve the D in CF.

A easy fix would be to offer A. Jackson a 1 year deal to bridge to Almora.

Another thing is he keyed into added flexibility for Maddon. So it wouldn't surprise me if they went after Zoberist to lead off and play some CF.

Zobrist is going to be 35 next year and hasn't played CF since 2011 with time mostly spent at 2B and LF (with a dash of RF, SS, and 3B thrown in). He's a protypical lead-off guy (high OBP with limited strike outs) and gives the Cubs a ton of options

- He can play 2B if they trade Castro and/or Baez
- He can play LF either platooning with Schwarber or full-time if Kyle's a catcher
- He can play RF if they move Soler
- He can play 3B if they move Bryant to the OF

Sign Zobrist, Price, A. Jackson
Use Castro + non ML talent to get a SP 3/4
Trade Monetro for a RH/defensive catcher

vs LHP
Jackson - CF
Zobrist - LF
Bryant - 3B
Rizzo - 1B
Soler - RF
Schwarber - C
Baez - 2B
P
Russell - SS

VS Rhp
Zobrist - 2B
Schwarber - C
Bryant - CF
Rizzo - 1B
Soler - RF
Coghlan - LF
Baez - 3B
P
Russell - SS

Rotation - Arrieta, Price, Lester, Traded Guy, Hendricks

Fits well money wise (Zobrist leaves when the young bats need higher arbitration money, Jackson bridges Almora, Contreas/Schwarber are your platoon next year between C/LF) and has back-up plans for injuries/ineffectiveness (Coghlan can replace Soler in the 5/6 spot; Jackson can bat at the bottom of the order against RHP and you move Baez out, Russell up if KB isn't great in CF)

According to MLB.com, the Cubs have 5 top 100 guys (Torres, McKinney, Edwards, Underwood, Almora) and then other guys who still have value (Dewes, Johnson, Cease, EJ Martinez, Jimmenez) and then older minor guys (Villaneuva, Vogelbach) who could be useful in trades. I'm not saying trade all of them, but I can't imagine Castro+three of these guys not getting back a SP 4 who's above Hendricks.

 

[Hammer]

Almora didn't show anything in minors that warrants a spot on this team anywhere in the future.
He can't hit for power nor average, and his defense ain't that special either.
He looks like Szczur 2.0, a draft bust more or less and a backup at best on MLB level.

Best chance for Cubs to fill CF position within current roster / farm is to switch Baez or Bryant there and considering future, maybe that Cuban kid we just signed can become valid candidate for the spot 2-3 years down the road.

Of course, they can always go the FA route, but considering what this team needs the most (another starting pitcher or even two), it would be crazy to spend huge amounts of money on CF (for example sign Heyward for $25M per year).

 

[Diehardfan]

I don't care how anybody waxes it but there is no way that Jackson is a suitable replacement for Fowler. I seriously doubt he will even be back next year.

 

[TL1961]

Man, 5-years and $75M for Shark sounds awfully risky. He was just too brutal this year. It's tough to stay in the majors with a 5.00 ERA. I understand his pitch selection might have been poor and Bosio can help -- but he's coming off a really, really bad year. And to pony up a deal that long in length -- it just makes me nervous.

If he wants a 3-year deal, fine maybe we can swallow it. But I'd be really wary of that many years to a guy who didn't even pitch like a 5th starter.

Shark simply does not win games.

 

[TL1961]

Almora didn't show anything in minors that warrants a spot on this team anywhere in the future.
He can't hit for power nor average, and his defense ain't that special either.
He looks like Szczur 2.0, a draft bust more or less and a backup at best on MLB level.

Best chance for Cubs to fill CF position within current roster / farm is to switch Baez or Bryant there and considering future, maybe that Cuban kid we just signed can become valid candidate for the spot 2-3 years down the road.

Of course, they can always go the FA route, but considering what this team needs the most (another starting pitcher or even two), it would be crazy to spend huge amounts of money on CF (for example sign Heyward for $25M per year).

Bryant is not a CF.

 

[Boobaby1]

Bryant is not a CF.

Here are a couple of options.

You offer Fowler a QO, in which he will rightfully decline. You then re-sign Austin Jackson and Coghlan to at least provide an insurance policy for the outfield.

You sign Heyward, and trade Soler and/or a package to net the young TOR pitcher which I think will be Salazar if they trade.

Cubs get 5 more years of Salazar, and Cleveland gets five more years of Soler. It is a good trade for both.

The Cubs greatly improve defense in RF, and get the TOR pitcher.

If that trade doesn't work, the Cubs might also be able to throw a package deal centered around Soler and some minor leaguers and go after either Tyson Ross or Cashner of San Diego, and Kimbrel. The Padres may want to relieve themselves of Kimbrels contract and start anew, and of course, besides Soler, the Cubs would have to kick in players like Villanueva, or Vogelbach, or Candelario, and some pitchers, and maybe they could eat half of Hammels contract and let him pitch in San Diego for 5 million per year.

This way, the Cubs still have a solid right fielder, a TOR, and now a closer to go along with Rondon, Grimm, and Ramirez at the back of the staff.

Then the Cubs can find a short term veteran pitcher such as Kazmir or Lackey. If they could get either one at 2 years and 15 million per, or 3 years and 35 million, it would be worth it IMO.

Two scenarios would be

Arrieta
Lester
Salazar
Lackey/Kazmir
Hendricks

or

Arrieta
Lester
Ross/Cashner
Lackey/Kazmir
Hendricks

Line-up

Jackson CF
Heyward RF
Bryant 3B
Rizzo 1B
Schwarber LF
Castro 2B
Montero C
pitcher
Russell SS

Bench Baez, Coghlan, Szczur, Ross, La Stella

Let Coghlan and Jackson switch out in CF for a year in the hopes that Almora becomes ready offensively, and hope that Jackson can return to his career average of .333 OBP.

Plenty of veterans and thump in the line-up. Good starting staff, good bullpen, good speed, and enough high OBP guys.

I know it's wishful thinking, but it stays within payroll range of not blowing it out of the water, even if they pick up pitcher like a Kazmir or a Lackey.

I would estimate payroll to be in the 155-160 range, knowing full well that 13 million comes off of the books the following year for the E-Jax debacle.

 

[brett05]

Baez is not proven at all. Soler is missing from that lineup.

No he is not. He got traded to Cle for Salazar in the example provided.

 

[Parade_Rain]

No he is not. He got traded to Cle for Salazar in the example provided.

I know that. Baez has not gotten it done in any stretch at the MLB level. To say it's a good lineup expecting him to produce when he hasn't makes little sense.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I know that. Baez has not gotten it done in any stretch at the MLB level. To say it's a good lineup expecting him to produce when he hasn't makes little sense.

He had a solid year at AAA, changed his approach at the plate and had very good numbers in a limited 80 PA at the MLB level. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect his improvement next year. I love this kid and think he will be the real deal mainly because he has elements of the game that cannot be taught and for the ones that can he's worked hard at improving in a very tough year for him.