MORE TO COME

[TC in Mississippi]

Hendrick's and Turners FIP last year as starters was .7 apart from each other but I've had people argue with me that Hendricks has #2 potential and Turner is a #5 at best. Turner's issue has been a velocity drop from his days in the Detroit system but last year was clocked back up to 93. If he can maintain that while improving his command he's a 3 type with an off chance at a 2. Hendricks, with no velocity or "stuff" to speak of, is a gritty 4 or 5 type who will have to become an innings eater to stay in a rotation. I guess what I'm saying is that I root for Turner to turn it around but am hoping Hendricks shows what he is early because I think he's fools gold.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I'd rather hope they both work out as opposed to worrying about 1 over the other.

 

[Pepe Silvia]

Hendrick's and Turners FIP last year as starters was .7 apart from each other but I've had people argue with me that Hendricks has #2 potential and Turner is a #5 at best. Turner's issue has been a velocity drop from his days in the Detroit system but last year was clocked back up to 93. If he can maintain that while improving his command he's a 3 type with an off chance at a 2. Hendricks, with no velocity or "stuff" to speak of, is a gritty 4 or 5 type who will have to become an innings eater to stay in a rotation. I guess what I'm saying is that I root for Turner to turn it around but am hoping Hendricks shows what he is early because I think he's fools gold.

It's hard to think that he's complete fool's gold. His great numbers were pretty consistent throughout the minors. Will he's put up a 2.50 era his whole career? No, but he could still be a very serviceable pitcher. Especially being able to consistently locate his cutter the way he does. Not many pitchers in the league can do that, and it should help him to have a successful career.

 

[CSF77]

The hit on Hendricks is he doesn't miss enough bats and has to use his 2 seemer to produce ground balls. If he can't keep a 1:1 SO:IP ratio going he will always be viewed as filler.

 

[czman]

The hit on Hendricks is he doesn't miss enough bats and has to use his 2 seemer to produce ground balls. If he can't keep a 1:1 SO:IP ratio going he will always be viewed as filler.

Of the ~90 pitchers that threw 160 innings only 18 had a 1:1 SO:IP ratio,

I don't think we can use that for the baseline for filler.

 

[SilenceS]

Hendricks has to be perfect with his control every time out to be successful and that is before major league hitters adjust to his tendencies. Its hard to be perfect every at bat and that is essentially what he has to do.

 

[CSF77]

Of the ~90 pitchers that threw 160 innings only 18 had a 1:1 SO:IP ratio,

I don't think we can use that for the baseline for filler.

You can when he is challenged to hit 90 MPH. A guy with a fastball in the college level of talent needs precise control. Or a trick pitch such as a split/Sintu etc.

The odds are against him becoming another Maddux. Maddux had to have perfect control while knowing each hitters tendencies. Hendricks seems to have the mental side of the game but the question is if he can sustain that level.

My opinion is both Hendricks and Arrieta are going to be challenged to repeat. Wada IMO should repeat last years production. FIP for both Hendricks and Arrieta were low as major league ace talent and I doubt either will repeat it. Wada was more realistic to repeat. I question his long term value but Japanese pitchers has gone into their 40's so I'm not too concerned with a drop off with him.

Just my 2 cents. Arrieta's Fip ends up in the 3's. not the 2's. Hendricks and Wada keep around a 4. Which is back of the rotation which they are.

 

[beckdawg]

People are being too general when talking about finesse pitchers and Hendricks. As usual I wont pretend to be a scout but from what I've read his change up is his only plus pitch. However, from what I've read historically pitchers with really good change ups and marginal other stuff have been successful because of it. Not all finesse pitchers fall into that category.

Logically, Hendricks is going to live or die by his ability to limit his mistakes. Thus far he's got a 1.46 GB/FB ratio. If he qualified that would have been in the top 40 pitchers in that area. His line drive rate against was 19.4%. That would have been top 25 had he qualified. His HR/FB rate was 4.9%. Had he qualified there that would have been top 5. His IFFB% was again top 5 at 14.8%. Put all that together and it suggests people are not making good contact. It's possible the league just hadn't caught up to him last year but there's no real way to predict that. Additionally, his numbers aren't really that far off his minor league numbers. LOB% is quite similar. Walk rate is a bit better but within the realm. His K rate is actually quite far down comparative to where you would expect after adjusting for the promotion. I would have expected more of a 6-7 k/9 based off his minor league numbers.

I've been on his bandwagon prior to last season because he doesn't walk players. It's the same logic as to why I think people are under rating Tseng. That being said, I think he's likely always going to be a good regular season pitcher but not really the guy you want in a 3 man rotation for the playoffs. His upside is likely Doug Fister who's a hell of a pitcher but who the Tigers also gave up as a playoff contending team. Hendricks will be efficient with his starts. He'll likely give you a lot of decent innings and save your bullpen. Anything more that is gravy. Keep in mind they sort of just paid Hammel $9 mil a year for that sort of production.