NL Cy Young Race: Arrieta vs. Greinke

[Chief Walking Stick]

Jake Arrieta:
18-6
2.03 ERA
197.2 IP
204 K
44 BB
3 CG
2 SO
+No Hitter

Zack Greinke:
15-3
1.59 ERA
186.2 IP
169 K
32 BB
1 CG
0 SO

Numbers are up to date through 7 scoreless innings of today's game.

This is gonna be very close.

 

[beckdawg]

Should probably put Kershaw in that talk too. He actually has the best FIP of the three(Grienke: 2.63, Arrieta: 2.51, Kershaw 2.03)

 

[CSF77]

Jake would have to get his ERA under 2 with over 20 wins. With Zack keeping under 20 and his ERA staying in the same zone.

On a normal year you would just hand it to Jake. Setting the league pace in wins and keeping his ERA around a 2. But Zach has been on a record pace for dominance of a season. He would have to crash and burn for Jake to over come him.

ERA carries the most weight. If they are equal then you look at IP/SO/Wins.

I don't think the voters put weight into advanced metrics yet

 

[Parade_Rain]

Arrieta is MVP, not CY.

 

[wklink]

Grenke playing as well as he is actually hurts Kershaw. Having two guys like that on your team tends to negate the one having a slightly worse season although people should take note of Kershaw.

If Arrieta gets 20 wins it will be hard to not give it to him. These days a 20 game winner is a real rarity. There were only three last year and one the year before. 20 games was common at one time but not anymore. The biggest thing in his favor is his later season excellence. He has been flat out unhittable in his last seven games and his second half performance has been as good, if not better, than anyone else.

I think that any of the three listed above are very deserving of the award so if Jake doesn't get it I won't be too upset but there isn't anyone out there that isn't saying Arrieta doesn't deserve the award.

 

[ijustposthere]

Since July 30th, Jake has given up 2 ER. That's pretty damn phenomenal. If Jake continues to pitch this way, he will end up with 20+ wins and an under 2.00 ERA. If that happens, I don't see how you can't give it to him.

 

[SilenceS]

Eh, Grienke has it on lock unless he has a bad month. He has the West coast media and he has been phenomenal. Jake has been beyond incredible but you cant take anything away from Grienke. Kershaw has been a freak again. No shame in not winning it. He is a true ace and not many pitchers can say that.

 

[Boobaby1]

Eh, Grienke has it on lock unless he has a bad month. He has the West coast media and he has been phenomenal. Jake has been beyond incredible but you cant take anything away from Grienke. Kershaw has been a freak again. No shame in not winning it. He is a true ace and not many pitchers can say that.

And..................you have to figure who has had ALL of the hype this year with the scoreless streaks to boot which is Greinke and Kershaw.

Jake will make it interesting though, especially if he keeps up at this pace.

The 20 win game thing will catch the medias eyes, and Jake will make a strong claim for himself if he gets to that number for sure, to go along with his low ERA.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Arrieta is MVP, not CY.

Exactly. With the race so close and no position player on a playoff team having the numbers, Arrieta gives the voters a ready made choice. Of course that all changes if Washington catches the Mets or even comes close. Then Bryce Harper gets it in a walk.

 

[CSF77]

Closer than you think. Bill James has Zach 3 points higher. But he gives a bonus for leading their Div. 12 points. So all things equal Jake would be ahead.

 

[Chief Walking Stick]

ERA shouldn't carry that much weight.

Arrieta leads every other category except BB plus has more CG/SO and a no hitter under his belt.

As noted earlier, Kershaw has the best FIP of the 3 but also had a rocky start to the season.

 

[CSF77]

FIP weighs heavy on SO. You should look at BAA and OPS against. That tells a better story.

 

[brett05]

The voters have shown they are using metrics now. It's helpful to get a better picture. Right now I'd go Zach slightly over Clayton with Arietta third. Arietta is my MVP by the same margin over Bryce as Zach is over Clayton

 

[ijustposthere]

And..................you have to figure who has had ALL of the hype this year with the scoreless streaks to boot which is Greinke and Kershaw.

Jake will make it interesting though, especially if he keeps up at this pace.

The 20 win game thing will catch the medias eyes, and Jake will make a strong claim for himself if he gets to that number for sure, to go along with his low ERA.

Jake currently has 29 straight scoreless innings.

 

[Ari Bear]

Greinke's 1.59 era is the only reason he's gonna win it.

 

[Chief Walking Stick]

Greinke's 1.59 era is the only reason he's gonna win it.

ERA won't mean shit with the other factors he has going against him.

 

[Ari Bear]

ERA won't mean shit with the other factors he has going against him.

You know this and I know this. But ERA is a huge, huge pull when it comes to winning the CY.

 

[chibears55]

All Greinke has on Arrieta is ERA by 1/2 run..

Arrieta has 5 starts left, he wins 3 of those and keeps his ERA where it at, he should win it..
they shouldn't vote for Greinke based solely on ERA.

20+ wins. Over 200 IP over 200Ks. Under 1 Whip ERA at 2
CGs SOs NoHitter

Greinke not gonna be close to Arrieta in those stats except ERA

Greinke may have West Coast bias but Arrieta should have the Central and East Coast...

 

[Ari Bear]

Greinke give 3 runs so far tonight, era is up 1.69 now. Cool, hopefully the Angels tack on a few more!

 

[brett05]

I am amazed when stats are silly unless it helps our guy win an award. :smh:

As of today the edge seems to be in Kershaw's favor. Better K's, Better k/9 Better BB/9, Better K:BB, better fWAR, better IP/GS, better FIP, Better xFIP, Second best scoreless streak of the three.