NL Cy Young Race: Arrieta vs. Greinke

[Bear Pride]

Maybe but they still have 2 more years of him at a reasonable cost.

I think some of you dont realize Arrieta is already 31 YO
In 2018 at 34, do you really wanna be paying the guy all that dough for 4 -5 more years ?

I think the cubs will ride this out and let him go then..

In 2018 Lester at 34 will be in his final 3 yrs at 27.5, 27.5, and 20
with a 10 mil bugout in 2021..

David Price will be 32 in 2018 and 3rd yr of new deal. .


Cubs can ride these 3 for next 2 years. .
Then they ride with Price and Lester with a younger stud for Arrieta. ..

Like ive been saying the key will be for them to start drafting or trading for stud young pitching to be ready to come up and continue the strong pitching ..

I could see this happening, myself. It all depends on how things go as well. The Cubs could be a great destination for FA's as well. But getting 2 more good years from Arietta and then letting him go would be the ultimate in value if you ask me.

 

[Jntg4]

Maybe but they still have 2 more years of him at a reasonable cost.

I think some of you dont realize Arrieta is already 31 YO
In 2018 at 34, do you really wanna be paying the guy all that dough for 4 -5 more years ?

I think the cubs will ride this out and let him go then..

In 2018 Lester at 34 will be in his final 3 yrs at 27.5, 27.5, and 20
with a 10 mil bugout in 2021..

David Price will be 32 in 2018 and 3rd yr of new deal. .


Cubs can ride these 3 for next 2 years. .
Then they ride with Price and Lester with a younger stud for Arrieta. ..

Like ive been saying the key will be for them to start drafting or trading for stud young pitching to be ready to come up and continue the strong pitching ..

He's 29

 

[chibears55]

He's 29

Your right.. i probably was looking at Lester profile and thought i was looking at his. ..

I still stand by my opinion on how i think they will go about resigning him or not..

They probably wait it out unless they can work something out that makes both sides happy. ..

 

[brett05]

Officially no but I'm sure the people voting would be looking at the results of that game.

Voting is closed prior to that game.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Maybe but they still have 2 more years of him at a reasonable cost.

I think some of you dont realize Arrieta is already 31 YO
In 2018 at 34, do you really wanna be paying the guy all that dough for 4 -5 more years ?

I think the cubs will ride this out and let him go then..

In 2018 Lester at 34 will be in his final 3 yrs at 27.5, 27.5, and 20
with a 10 mil bugout in 2021..

David Price will be 32 in 2018 and 3rd yr of new deal. .


Cubs can ride these 3 for next 2 years. .
Then they ride with Price and Lester with a younger stud for Arrieta. ..

Like ive been saying the key will be for them to start drafting or trading for stud young pitching to be ready to come up and continue the strong pitching ..

Well you hit on something here that I believe and that Cubs fans may not like. If the Cubs do sign Price it would not shock me to see Arrieta traded next winter while he has a full year of control and considerable value. They'd have to have an ace in place to do that though. If they don't sign a Price, Cueto, Greinke this FA period the I think Arrieta plays out his contract.

 

[CSF77]

Well you hit on something here that I believe and that Cubs fans may not like. If the Cubs do sign Price it would not shock me to see Arrieta traded next winter while he has a full year of control and considerable value. They'd have to have an ace in place to do that though. If they don't sign a Price, Cueto, Greinke this FA period the I think Arrieta plays out his contract.

They won't trade Jake. Boras even commened the Cubs for letting JAke be himself. Also he said that not all of his clients goto F/A. So he was hinting on a deal.

Not to mention he has Bryant also. It would make sense to start to lock up their assets.

All they need to do is replace Harden next year. Then do not need to improve on a Cy young level talent.

 

[brett05]

The tough task is what will Jake do from age 31 thru say 38. He might be worth a seven year deal. But his age is against him. I think he warrants a James Shields type deal with at least a 20% bump.

 

[Boobaby1]

The tough task is what will Jake do from age 31 thru say 38. He might be worth a seven year deal. But his age is against him. I think he warrants a James Shields type deal with at least a 20% bump.

To me, he has relatively low mileage on his arm (850 innings) versus Zimmermann (1075) at the same age, and David Price (over 1400) at a year older.

I wonder how all of this plays into the equation?

 

[TC in Mississippi]

To me, he has relatively low mileage on his arm (850 innings) versus Zimmermann (1075) at the same age, and David Price (over 1400) at a year older.

I wonder how all of this plays into the equation?

I think it means the Cubs are going to make a very good offer. I'd start with a 6 year extension, taking him to 35, at $150 million. I gave this some thought over the weekend and the fact that he will be 31 in FA year will be a factor in his mind. Of course Greinke is going to be an interesting test case this winter as he is 31 and pitching the best ball of his life. He's not getting James Shields money. I think what he gets is largely dependent on where Price sets the market. There is a lot of thought right now that Price will concentrate on fit over max dollars and if so won't necessarily be pushing for that 7 or 8 year $230 million that some feel he'll get. I've been in that latter camp of high money but with who agent is and what people think about his character, winning and fit could be a bigger factor than money for him. If he signs for say $190 million, Cueto might end up a little below him and Greinke under that due to his age, let's say 6/$150. If so Arrieta could and likely should think long and hard about pushing for an extension of say 7/$160. I'd certainly take that risk with him. Of course that likely rules out Price to the Cubs.

 

[brett05]

On an extension signed now, I can't see Jake taking less than 25 million per.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

On an extension signed now, I can't see Jake taking less than 25 million per.

Agreed, which is why I said the Cubs should start there at 6/$150. I could see him asking for 7/$160 though. That would get him an extra $10 mil in a deal where his 36 year old year would be included. Unlikely that he could sign for $10 mil as a 36 year old, but maybe in that future market he could. With that being the case maybe 7/$170 gets it done.

 

[brett05]

Agreed, which is why I said the Cubs should start there at 6/$150. I could see him asking for 7/$160 though. That would get him an extra $10 mil in a deal where his 36 year old year would be included. Unlikely that he could sign for $10 mil as a 36 year old, but maybe in that future market he could. With that being the case maybe 7/$170 gets it done.

That's less than $25 million per

 

[TC in Mississippi]

That's less than $25 million per

Correct. My point is that if he took a 6 year deal at $25 per he'd go back out on the market at 36. 36 year old pitchers aren't going to make $25 mil. Again I think the Cubs would start at about 6/$150. That's $25 million per. If I'm Arrieta I want the 7th year even if the money per year becomes less. The thing is if they avoid arb, offer him a deal liek that he may decide the security is worth more than the money. If not he's going wait until he's 31 and test the market.

 

[brett05]

I think the consensus is that this is not an easy call

 

[CSF77]

He would most likely get 8 mil in arb. So I doubt that Theo is going to give him 25 mil year 1. A nice gesture would be 10 mil year 1. Year 2 of arb scale it up to 16 mil. That takes care of his 2 years of control. At that point he should be worth around 25 mil per for 5 years. 31-36 age. So we are talking a 7 year 151 mil deal. They could give out performance bonus' to up his numbers and also give him a signing bonus to off set his low starting wage.

My opinion is still they need to address the #3 starter vs the #1.

My prediction is they end up trading from depth to acquire that pitcher.

 

[CSF77]

Tyson Ross and Carraso would be 2 targets I would predict. I can see them trading Soler in the off season as a trade chip.

Castro is a maybe. If the Mets wanted to swap Castro for Neise it would be a fair deal on both ends. Opens up 2B for Baez full time and gets Castro back to SS. Neise becomes a #4. Not ideal but an upgrade to the current situation.

Never know. Hendricks may figure it out in the off season and rebounds back to 2014 for and ends the issue

 

[Chief Walking Stick]

Kershaw tonight, Greinke tomorrow.

GO WHOEVER THE DODGERS ARE PLAYING!

 

[Chief Walking Stick]

Jake Arrieta:
19-6
1.96 ERA
207.0 IP
209 K
47 BB
3 CG
2 SO
+No Hitter

Zack Greinke:
18-3
1.65 ERA
207.2 IP
185 K
36 BB
1 CG
0 SO

Clayton Kershaw:
14-6
2.12 ERA
208.0 IP
264 K
38 BB
3 CG
2 SO

 

[Spunky Porkstacker]

kershaw tonight, greinke tomorrow.

Go whoever the dodgers are playing!

EVEN MY DOG KNOWS THE DODGERS ARE PLAYING THE PIRATESs.

 

[Chief Walking Stick]

If I weren't a Cubs fan I wouldn't know who to vote for.